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*Irish Derby 2012*

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By:
p_r_e_m_i_e_r__f_a_n_t_a_s_y
When: 27 Aug 12 14:36
This Bugatti gamble is building up a head of steam now Devil
By:
pocket pairs
When: 27 Aug 12 14:54
just looking on youtube the fooballer that kicked the owl off the pitch what a **** and a horse trying to hudle a carShocked
By:
woodmanchester
When: 27 Aug 12 14:54
Only a gamble coz Bug was the wrong price to start with. I had it about 9/4.

Remember English Derby though? JFK and Rioga got knocked out and i only needed Bug to finish in first 3 in a 5-dog race for very big win, ran like an oink, oink as sometimes it can. Got him 50/1 antepost though and would settle for him as champion
By:
pocket pairs
When: 27 Aug 12 14:59
fattie the lion story on the radio says "its beleive it may of come from a travelling circus which was there 2 weeks ago" Laugh

wish you could get a bet on it
By:
p_r_e_m_i_e_r__f_a_n_t_a_s_y
When: 27 Aug 12 15:01
Woody you had Bugatti in @ 9/4 (takes out 30.77% of the market) yet are also happy to bet Puma @ 2/1 (33.33% of the market) so must have had him shorter, what prices did you have the others then??
By:
woodmanchester
When: 27 Aug 12 15:05
About 121% book went:

9/4 Bug
12/1  Imp
13/8 Puma
12/1 Diva
10/3 Billy
6/1 Camas

Thought top 2 in betting clear with Billy fly in ointment
By:
p_r_e_m_i_e_r__f_a_n_t_a_s_y
When: 27 Aug 12 15:11
So i'd guess you'd make the bottom around 8/1 to 100%

If Skywalker Puma is a 13/8 shot i'm the Pope, honestly can't believe anyone thinks he should be that short. He is clearly as fast as anything in the race but he can't be that short with Imp inside him.



Regards, Pope PF!! Devil
By:
p_r_e_m_i_e_r__f_a_n_t_a_s_y
When: 27 Aug 12 15:16
I should say though i really hope i am wrong seen as Skywalker Puma is my 3rd biggest winner Plain
By:
woodmanchester
When: 27 Aug 12 15:23
Similar for me with having 70/1 Imp antepost, my biggest winner and Diva in tipping competition but cant see it, making them 12/1 apiece. You get conflicts at this stage. Just think track betting might be something like that, think they will come for Puma, but i too could be wrong. If Imp away, Puma behind him and Bug for late surge. Prices to 100% book would be pro-rata, if that's what they say?! Laugh
By:
p_r_e_m_i_e_r__f_a_n_t_a_s_y
When: 27 Aug 12 15:45
Cashmans go 3/1 Skywalker Puma if you want to open an account with them
By:
woodmanchester
When: 27 Aug 12 15:46
Camas could "take off" unannounced but not shown enough, imo, to warrant the highest consideration. Dont like to see dogs scraping through, then crowned King, or Queen in Diva's case
By:
woodmanchester
When: 27 Aug 12 15:54
Thanks PF. Think the clued-up Irish punters will knock them over. I phoned them once with a view to making unplaced BAGS dogs pay only to be told they didnt accept Visa and i needed to send them a £250 cheque to open a deposit account. What kind of company are they?!
By:
p_r_e_m_i_e_r__f_a_n_t_a_s_y
When: 27 Aug 12 15:56
The clued up will be taking him on, just like last week in my opinion. The Shelbourne bookmakers will take him on too just like last week in my opinion.
By:
woodmanchester
When: 27 Aug 12 16:01
Yes, it's all about opinions PF. Imo, improved effort from Puma last week. Bug and Imp dont stay, Puma cant be 3/1 shot
By:
hillcrest
When: 27 Aug 12 16:43
taken from cor*ls site, u have to laugh

Ante-Post, 23rd Sept, 550yrds, Shelbourne Park.
Coral are TOP PRICE 10/1 on Sparta Maestro taking the spoils. Last year's winner, Razadazl George is 33/1 to repeat this success. Bet now for value!
By:
FATTIEWHITEYSLOVEADRINK
When: 27 Aug 12 16:45
Woody won't have it at all with puma gl
cougar 6/1 far to big would of won Saturday at first thought it jib up but got back leg taken still didn't lose by much
same sort of hard heat but much better draw in two

No non runner sCry
By:
BJG
When: 27 Aug 12 17:57
Puma is the worst drawn dog of the night, hope he misses it a fraction and avoids Imp and manages to get into the 3 at the line! Would nt touch him at any price
By:
frank60
When: 27 Aug 12 19:35
6/1     1/4ODDS E/W  O/R IS A BET TO NOTHING ON PUMA ..I CAN SEE HIM OUT OF THE FIRST 3 IN THE FINAL..BUT I THINK HE WILL GO OFF AT 3/1 TO WIN THE 1ST SIMI  ...BJG IS RIGHT HE NEEDS TO MISS THE BREAK TO WIN.Plain
By:
woodmanchester
When: 27 Aug 12 19:46
This is like Frankel, everyone against me and we know what happened there! At least, 365 would be eggy faced too this time going 13/8 also.

The way i see it, put Sugar Ray in the race, put Camas nearly 9 lengths behind and Puma 4 lengths in front of that, use that as your yardstick to distances and placings of the rest. Any dog can miss, any dog can get a flier, just have to see if Imp does knock him at start. Even if that happens, no better dog than Puma to shake off a nudge
By:
p_r_e_m_i_e_r__f_a_n_t_a_s_y
When: 27 Aug 12 19:52
Laugh what in gods name are you going on about?
By:
frank60
When: 27 Aug 12 20:10
All the fairy tales of ireland.Crazy
By:
BJG
When: 27 Aug 12 20:27
Any dog can miss, any dog can get a flier

Blush
By:
ChildOfMine2
When: 27 Aug 12 21:18
Have to say that Sugar Ray is an absolute shocking price - 5/2 best price to win an Irish Derby judged on one run and while he's drawn trap 1 again, I think he's the worst value I've seen all year. Still think Droopys Jet has his name on the trophy as he's run two of his worst races ever and still managed to qualify for the semis. If he qualifies on Saturday and gets the red jacket in the final, it's all over.
Skywalker doesn't have the early pace required to win an Irish Derby, in my opinion.
By:
woodmanchester
When: 28 Aug 12 00:47
Just going off quarter-final form. Ray beat Puma 4 lengths with 4 1/2 lengths back to Camas. Okay forget Ray, how far will Camas be behind the winner in the semis then put Puma at least 4 lengths in front of that and then tell me Puma will be opposed at 3/1!
By:
woodmanchester
When: 28 Aug 12 00:49
Besides, didnt see the dog to the right of Imp have any problems in the quarter finals. You can all guess all you want, you must wait and see
By:
woodmanchester
When: 28 Aug 12 05:54
Just looked at Imp's last two races. It was the 18th i was thinking of where Imp broke, moved off rails but was clear, with scrimmaging behind, coz Tock and Sugar Ray went rails. Think Imp will clear again, ahead of Puma with the latter too much late firepower for 'em. Even if Puma crowded, as long as not severely, still honestly believe he can come through. And, who's to say how much ground dogs gain/lose with crowding, bumping and boring, only God would know that!
By:
p_r_e_m_i_e_r__f_a_n_t_a_s_y
When: 28 Aug 12 08:07
Dog A beat Dog B x amount of lenghts
Dog B beat the rest of the field x amount of lengths
Therefore Dog A wins no matter what the draw is

Do you not realise how stupid that is and that everybody would be billionaires if it worked like that.



I can guess all i want, i think it's clear who is the total guesser and who puts in the work.

How about you watch the 1/4 finals again as you obviously didn't bother if you think the dogs drawn to the right of Coolykereen Imp didn't have any problems. Broadstrand Lad in 2 was a NR but Razldazl Bugatti and Confident Rankin in 3 and 4 both didn't get clears on the run up due to Imp moving off. Bugatti was even away and was crossed by Imp and hampered run up. Rankin got bumped by Imp moving off and then forced wide on the bend by Imp.
By:
woodmanchester
When: 28 Aug 12 08:50
Yes PF, i said it was Imp's race on the 18th i was thinking about, not the quarter final. Why didnt you just say Puma might win if not too badly hampered at the start and we would have had none of this, unless you believe he has zero chance?
By:
p_r_e_m_i_e_r__f_a_n_t_a_s_y
When: 28 Aug 12 09:03
I said he is the worst drawn dog of the night in my and many others opinion. I said he was diabolical value at 2/1.

Of course he has a chance, every dog has a chance but i don't think his price represents his true chance from that draw.
By:
woodmanchester
When: 28 Aug 12 09:22
Fair enough. Funny really, you want him through and i want him out! Laugh
By:
hillcrest
When: 28 Aug 12 09:43
heres my take on the 1st semi

imp out traps puma a length and moves middle leaving puma the whole of shelbourne to run into the 1st bend. bugatti leads up with puma 3 or 4 behind off the 2nd bend finding himself in a perfect position. puma then takes off and takes it up from bugatti halfway up the straight. bugatti fades and just holds on from a fast finishing dive for 2nd
By:
p_r_e_m_i_e_r__f_a_n_t_a_s_y
When: 28 Aug 12 09:50
I'd take that although a little unhappily, bar the Diva part, i need her out.
By:
FATTIEWHITEYSLOVEADRINK
When: 28 Aug 12 10:00
every time imp been in two he's missed it !
did you factor that in !!!
where see Saturday there also two fast dogs on the out side too!
race on !!!Wink
By:
frank60
When: 28 Aug 12 12:53
Suger ray is now 10/3 with 365 to win o/r ..price is just about right. other fair value bets are george 8/1 with boyles..cuil cougar 16/1 with V.C... and tock 33/1 e/w with P.P. ...and now a message for GOD.. no more n/runners please lets have two good s/finals.Tongue Out
By:
woodmanchester
When: 28 Aug 12 18:07
You could be right Hillcrest but wherever Puma is, Camas should be just a length or so up on him rounding the first two bends. If Fatty right and Imp misses from T2 and Bugatti makes one of his fluff starts, Puma could lead! LaughWinkDevil
By:
FATTIEWHITEYSLOVEADRINK
When: 28 Aug 12 18:41
There's more chance of hillcrest leading at the first than pumaLaugh
By:
woodmanchester
When: 28 Aug 12 18:52
Laugh. Yeah, they would all have to come out on their noses at the start! Laugh. Seriously though, think Imp will break, slightly crowd Puma and moderate break Bugatti but will rush up to dispute lead. Bug and Imp no more to give and Puma come through.

PF cant get a bet on but if Puma 3/1 Cashmans, what price are they outright?
By:
woodmanchester
When: 28 Aug 12 18:52
Laugh. Yeah, they would all have to come out on their noses at the start! Laugh. Seriously though, think Imp will break, slightly crowd Puma and moderate break Bugatti but will rush up to dispute lead. Bug and Imp no more to give and Puma come through.

PF cant get a bet on but if Puma 3/1 Cashmans, what price are they outright?
By:
BJG
When: 28 Aug 12 23:12
Cashmans 9/2 Puma OR
By:
woodmanchester
When: 29 Aug 12 10:03
Cant understand how 365 go 13/8 Puma for heat but 6/1 outright, while Cashmans go 3/1 for heat yet only 9/2 outright, but thanks BJG.

Regarding 2nd semi, too much pace on inide for my liking, could see trouble. Best hope, Cougar to lead up and Jet not to take Sugar Ray's ground on rails. Could see Ray behind a few dogs, wouldnt like to call the result, but still say Rover has an outside chance of capitalizing at 14/1. George could be ready to fly again, too!
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