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why don't you try a new game away from the keyboard with your mates seggie Biscuit!!!
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Thought war broke out with so many posts this morning!
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soggy keyboard must have replaced soggy cracker |
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That spud-juice gets everywhere!
.Seriously though, dont think it's so much the draw that's the worry but as you said yourself PF (answering your own question), Vic is occasionally not his quickest away and it's the quality of opposition too. Rover flew last time and wont need a second invitation if Vic fluffs his lines, leaving the final 2 qualifying places at a premium. This is the big one for so many people and a slip up could leave you out on your *rse. Plus i was very impressed the way Cougar shook off a bump run-up and still scooted clear last time. Yes, all being well, fine chance to qualify but cant see how Vic is a 2/5 shot |
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If vic to win the derby he auto put away this lot, the bookies fear him the field surly fears him its a non playing heat unless you think a major upset on the cards!
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I seriously think he can half miss it and still lead the top and 3 up. Cuil Cougar is another matter, he is too short at 2/5 [has been 8/13] but he is a solid odds on chance if you ask me. I expect him to piss up and clock another 29.40odd.
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Hope youre right PF but its hard to say how a race will pan out, thats why i dont try to predict the way it will unfold. But, depending on the break, Vic, Rover and Cougar could reach the bend together, then it's eyes closed, then the inside would probably be the best place to be, you never know. If, and there's that little word again with the big meaning, Vic comes away as he can, yes, he could win with a shade to spare.
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But that's how we make a bet telling the story over and over again ain't it
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I know lads, it's probability with judgement thrown in
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The most common comment after the draw was made for the quarter final of the Ladbrokes Irish Derby concerned the fact that Tyrur Sugar Ray had at last drawn the inside trap which he so badly needs to be seen at his best.
It was therefore no surprise to learn that the sponsors were inundated with support for the Conor Fahy trained prospect and the response has been a cut in his outright odds from 25-1 to 14-1 and from a massive 7-1 for his heat to 4-1, which still looks very reasonable value in Heat 4. The other changes in Ladbrokes betting is to extend Ballymac Vic to 2-1 outright and Subway Ruth from 28 to 33-1. In the heat betting on the last qualifier, Skywalker Puma 6-1 from 11-10 while Razldazl Luke, Danmar Benny and Subway Ruth have all been extended. what an absolute facking crock of sh|te, there was no 7/1, i rang numerous bloody times on a facking horn thinking i was getting 7/1, |
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went in to Laddies today, told the guy about my free bet if ante-post bet was eliminated in the 3rd round, he said it was o k. so stuck 20 on Diva, 20 on Apollo and a 10 on Cougar. cheers.
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I assume that was Michael Fortune?
Not in a million years did they lay a penny. |
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Broadstrand Lad out of the Derby now
stuck with poxy SP on all my Lughil Billy bets now |
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Trainer John Linehan yesterday notified the Racing Office that his terrific veteran had sustained a hairline fracture of the hock and will not be able to continue in the classic. Indeed, given his age, he may well have run his last race.
Jeez that's terrible. Last year i think he was favourite or very close to favourite for the Derby when he had to miss it through injury and then has to pull out at the 1/4 final stage this year. At 4 1/2 i can't see him racing again ![]() |
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That report says John Linehan informed the racing office yesterday of the decision, but my question then is why are we only finding out this evening? You would be annoyed if you had a bet on the race in between them knowing and announcing it, and you could even have the situation where someone might have unwittingly backed Broadstrand Lad antepost as well.
I also had Laughill Billy at 9/1 because the price was just plain wrong. I don't think Broadstrand Lad was much of a threat in the race anyway but nevertheless we can look forward now to our more realistic SP returns, if he wins. |
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Hoping the Bugatti beats the imp out and the rank gets a face full of imp!
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would imagine the report is for tomorrows paper there yesterday means today
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SAWPIT SHOULD QUILIFY WITH EASE NOW WITH 4 QUICK BREAKERS IN THE FIELD...THEY ALL CANT MAKE THE 1ST BEND SO HE SHOULD PICK UP THE ONES THAT WONT ...33/1 WITH STAN JAMES MIGHT BE WORTH A SMALL INVESTMENT....TY FOR LETTING US KNOW p.f.
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Tyrur Sugar was 3/1 in Boyls to win his heat next Sat, and 16/1 to win out. That was at around 5.45pm today.I had earlier looked up his races on the IGB video's and couldn't really back him. Seems completely hit and miss, and while possessed with loadza speed needs too much to fall right for him, to be a betting proposition. He has had T1 before and won out of it but again came from behind.Good luck to his backers,I will watch with great interest...............
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He's no price at 3/1 he auto break better from one
Just think camas have a great run out wide! |
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Been a great dog Broadstrand but as mentioned, could be the end of the road now. If i was a Billy backer, i would request no bet. Think 365 particularly good like that.
Think Sugar Ray still 4/1, looks the bet in that heat to me but would be happy just to see him in the semis at this point |
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Heat 1 - Razldazl Apollo @ 7/1 + Clydal Spirit @ 25/1 (Think they're overpriced. Apollo has really good early it's just trapping is his problem but if he makes a decent start from here, drawn inside them all i think he could go around in front and if he did i think he wins. Clydal Spirit ran well against him last week and the price seems a bit insulting. I can't consider Droopys Jet at the prices the way he has ran the last twice.)
Heat 2 - Laughil Billy @ 9/1 + 8/1 (Stuck with SP now. I was happier with his chances even when Broadstrand Lad was in the race as felt there would be loads of trouble inside with the top moving off, 4 moving inwards and Bugatti in there too. Hopefully there still is but they have a better chance of going around cleanly now.) Heat 3 - Ballymac Vic @ 1.94 (Some nice person stuck up a nifty at 1.94 so being a nice person too i decided to not leave their charitable gift there and take it. If that charitable person wishes to put some more up i would not hasten to take some more of it. Once he break even half a length down he will destroy the top to the corner and i think he has as much if not more early than Cuil Cougar so drawn inside him should lead too and if he leads it's all over.) Heat 4 - Tyrur Sugar Ray @ 7/1 ( only kidding), 9/2 + 4/1 (Finally got a good draw and now is the time for him to take off. He should lead up Luke in 2 and follow around Danmar Benny who will probably lead and once he is close into the back he should win. Camas is a big danger out wide if coming away better than last week and so is Puma even from 5 but if he doesn't turn in front of Sugar Ray which i think is unlikely on the draw i don't think he can back run him. If Subway Ruth could lead Danmar Benny she'd have a chance but she may struggle to do that.) |
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Sawpit Sensation is a NR
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