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Advance thoughts on The Open
Advance thoughts on The Open
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Yes Mahan should go close his chipping concerns me. Links golf you need to chip well from the run off areas. That's the only negative. His driving and GiR or big pluses
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I have a really strong hunch for Stenson this week. Think the course is perfect for him & his recent form is great. Glad he didn't win on Sunday just for 'superstitious' reasons & think this could well be the week it all comes together for him.
Of the other more fancied players I'm on Sergio, Kuch & Mahan. Of the long shots since he first come on the scene I've always thought Booo had a big Open in him & vowed I'd back him every year he made the field so I'm not going to miss him in the form he's been in this year. Also taken Rumford whose price is massive for a links specialist with 2 wins this year and a nibble on Quiros just based on a hunch that he's finding form & is capable of something special on a good week. Finally I can't resist a few quid on Horschel. The sky's the limit for this guy, no weakness in his game & whilst he doesn't have any Open experience he had a good Walker Cup on a links course & his ball striking is perfect for the Open. Good Luck all & enjoy! |
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Sundog, always read your posts with interest. Yes, I like Boo's odds just great value that has such great stats this year.
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A selection of price movers - in and out
Player ........From ...Now Tiger Woods 4.5 11 Rory McIlroy 9 29 Luke Donald 20 34 Brandt Snedeker 20 44 Phil Mickelson 25 20 Lee Westwood 25 34 L Oosthuizen 30 70 Graeme McDowell 40 25 Ian Poulter 50 65 Padr Harrington 50 120 Hunter Mahan 50 85 Thorbjn Olesen 50 140 Keegan Bradley 50 130 Henrik Stenson 75 48 Webb Simpson 75 100 Bubba Watson 80 120 Branden Grace 100 65 Paul Lawrie 100 180 Ryan Moore 100 250 Bo Van Pelt 120 240 Bill Haas 125 95 Peter Hanson 125 200 Geoff Ogilvy 150 280 George Coetzee 150 250 Fred Jacobson 150 300 Brooks Koepka 180 310 Billy Horschel 200 130 David Lynn 200 350 John Senden 200 400 Carl Pettersson 200 410 R Cabrera Bello 200 570 Alvaro Quiros 250 500 Graham Delaet 400 240 Marc Leishman 400 260 H Matsuyama 480 300 Russell Henley 500 360 Josh Teater 1000 570 |
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in relative terms Rory is by far the worse
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Or the best, depending upon how you look at it
 If you have been lucky enough some Tasty moves already |
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weather,it can change hourly but prediction up to now
thurs/ early start wind 10mph stronger fri/afternoon start wind 10mph stronger |
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Cheers Eric, my only concern re Boo is that the weather wont be bad enough for him to show his strengths, having said that accuracy of the tee will be key, which is right up his street.
I've added one more to my team in Justin Leonard. Quietly having his best season for a few years & obviously has great Open pedigree. From what I remember the year he won the conditions were similar to this year. He also made the play off in 'Lawrie's Open'. Last time at Muirfield I was on him & as I remember he caught a massive break on the Saturday when he was out reasonably early & got in with a 68 or 67 just before the infamous squall came in & ended up in the last group out Sunday. A win for him this week would obviously be a massive shock but I can see a big week from him coming at big odds. |
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A good feature on the Open website tee times http://scores.theopen.com/en/TeeTimes.aspx
is the "find a player by name" feature" Just type in part of a name e.g. WOOD, and you get the three-balls for Lee Westwood, Tiger Woods, Chris Wood Type in KOR and you get the three-balls with Korean players (or anyone with KOR in their name) |
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Well very close to being done. Always nice to be green before the off and no easy feat when you have a team of 38!
My big bet this time will once again be Robert Karlsson. 440 for a man of his pedigree is a great price. Showed some return to form earlier this year at the difficult Wells Fargo course. Second off at 6.43am I am hoping for a fast start in benign conditions and perfect greens. Good luck |
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wind 10 mph stronger morning,but predicting the wind gullane is like mystic meg
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Rarely back Woods, but the course seems like it may play like Hoylake, and with his concern over his elbow he will be motivated to hit irons off the tee and so maybe in play more often. If he cant win it at Muirfield I doubt he'll ever win the Open again. So gone for him EW with a bookie (for the free additional bet).
On Betfair going for Els and Mcdowell, and a little bet on Lucas Glover purely as I had a dream that he came in the Top 5! May also do Calc for top senior. |
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Topped up Cabrera-Bello. Price looks very generous to me.
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Yes I couldn't resist him maggot, great grinder tee to green. He looks value to me.
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I'm balls deep on Phil now
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Its a backers market at the moment. When you take out the 1000-1's it's close to being a 100% book. I think come 9pm tonight it'll be a different story: Oddschecker a sea of blue and carnage on here. Time to load up on some of the 'names' now me thinks.
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team sewter
sterne 110 fowler 50 noren 225 aiken 250 200ew and top saffer 22 delaet 250 200ew leonard 500 300ew weekley 250 200ew rumford 300 250ew good luck all |
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Oddschecker certainly not a sea of blue ???
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Probably will be at 9pm ish
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Sorry, Handles. Misread what you meant. Yes, I agree.
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Matched....matched....matched....keep it up ladies and gentleman.
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have just decided on main bet
dustin Johnson@45/1 ew pp top 7 |
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Always a big late drift on one or more of the market leaders, waiting patiently for a price that makes my eyes go
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I might do a cover bet tiger
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any bookie going to take tiger on do we think?
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@sundog...billy horschel no weakness in his game? Fiery, hot headed, zero patience, rapid play all good attributes at this level??? Not for me thanks.
DJ my big one this week, hoping to trade him Saturday night. Darren Clarke over priced at 780 currently given that its only 2 years since he won the thing, again plan/hope is to trade after round 1 or 2. Have noticed Carl Petersson has gone in by 130 points or more to 350 over last 2 days...not sure if I agree with that trend. Westwood's about right at 34, small interest with him to trade after cut is made. Day's record in majors is inspiring...would like to see slightly better than 40's for him though so not following him this time. Can't see Phil not contending to some degree come the weekend but he's not closing tournaments like he used to so a lay for me at 20's. Els while one the modern greats, doesn't tick boxes for me despite record in the open and around this track. Wouldn't begrudge him defending his title as he's a nice bloke. Who I ABSOLUTELY CANNOT say the same about is Rose. Not popular (relatively)with other players for good reason...arrogance personified and while such a characteristic should never influence a betting decision, I too am merely human and am leaving the goose-like narcissist alone. Good luck all.  |
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Westwood's about right at 34,.......Day's record in majors is inspiring...would like to see slightly better than 40
Bizarre.....Westy should be 80 to 100. |
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dunno ski...can see him hitting 20's at some point at which time I'd bail on him.
Don't worry, I'm not gonna try and tell you that he's a brilliant short-game player who's just been misunderstood...  |
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Actually Westy's short-game improved this year.....his putting is diabolical.
However who knows......Westy may putt hot for 4 days and win this.......i suppose better to be safe than sorry. |
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4 days of hot-putting by Lee? hmmm...just about as likely that tiger's elbow is 100% fine.
Who's your big hope for the week again ski? (I know you're all about green, but have you one big green set up for yourself?) |
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Bets all taken and Team GMT is complete, hopefully wont need any additions !
Francesco Molinari 145.1 Matteo Manassero 90 Webb Simpson 96.13 Thomas Bjorn 80 Graham Delaet 242 Branden Grace 65.19 Tim Clark 310 Brandt Snedeker 44.03 C |
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Bets all taken and Team GMT is complete, hopefully wont need any additions !
Francesco Molinari 145.1 Matteo Manassero 90 Webb Simpson 96.13 Thomas Bjorn 80 Graham Delaet 242 Branden Grace 65.19 Tim Clark 310 Brandt Snedeker 44.03 C |
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Bets all taken and Team GMT is complete, hopefully wont need any additions !
Francesco Molinari 145.1 Matteo Manassero 90 Webb Simpson 96.13 Thomas Bjorn 80 Graham Delaet 242 Branden Grace 65.19 Tim Clark 310 Brandt Snedeker 44.03 C |
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Bets all taken and Team GMT is complete, hopefully wont need any additions !
Francesco Molinari 145.1 Matteo Manassero 90 Webb Simpson 96.13 Thomas Bjorn 80 Graham Delaet 242 Branden Grace 65.19 Tim Clark 310 Brandt Snedeker 44.03 C |
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I know you're all about green, but have you one big green set up for yourself?
I don't really focus on one big green as 1 out of 156 is rather pointless. However current biggest greens are Buddy, Jameson and Riva.....can't help it if layers offered 1000. However that always changes over 4 days depending on one's performance. Since this is The Open, i've doubled my usual trading stakes. |
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team gmt
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We got it the first time round GMT.......
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how many times do you turn on and off the light before you leave a room gmt?!
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team xmoneyx
dustin Johnson@45/1 e/w top 7 pp/betfair@50/1(main bet) Brandon grace@130/1 richard sterne@140/1 K J choi@210/1 George Coetzee@230/1 ma jimenez@230/1 d lynn@310/1 tim clark@300/1 tournament match bet sterne@10/11 v pod(NAP) *tiger/mickleson in play running if they hit decent odds g/l all |
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Sorry...made so many posts I didnt realise I had allready posted my Team !
Just for fun I thought I would post the players who I was very close to adding to my team but in general the prices available just didnt warrant it ! Tiger Woods Wanted 14.0 + Rickie Fowler Wanted 70.0+ Jason Dufner Wanted 100.0+ Bubba Watson Wanted 150.0+ Harris English Wanted 500.0+ |