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*** Travelers Championship ***

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Replies: 421
By:
Ski-Wiz
When: 20 Jun 13 19:11
You're not the only one Total Bosman......i took my stake back at odds that i thought he will go to, based on my prediction on 1st round score. I predicted Hunter would be -3 on the first day. -8 is beyond belief.

However green is green, better than red.
By:
Total Bosman
When: 20 Jun 13 19:15
Getting greedy and hoping Leishman can go and join him, good start.
By:
Ski-Wiz
When: 20 Jun 13 19:35
Leishman already traded......as is Hoffy......both too early by the look of it.

Say if one or both get to -6, what price would Hunter be considering he's an afternoon starter tomorrow. About 5 ?
By:
Hank Hill
When: 20 Jun 13 19:38
cmon the hoff, post a nice rd this afternoon and go low in the morning. Not too much to ask Cool
By:
Total Bosman
When: 20 Jun 13 20:00
Ladies and gentlemen, Ian James Poulter...


Shot 1 : Shot 1 227 yds to water, 157 yds to hole
Shot 2 : Shot 2 Penalty
Shot 2 : Drop in right fairway, 167 yds to hole
Shot 3 : Shot 3 from the fairway
Shot 4 : Shot 4 Penalty
Shot 4 : Drop in right fairway, 25 ft to hole
Shot 5 : Shot 5 42 ft to water, 62 ft to hole
Shot 6 : Shot 6 Penalty
Shot 6 : Drop in fairway
Shot 7 : Shot 7 0 in. to green, 20 ft to hole
Shot 8 : Shot 8 putt 23 ft 7 in., 3 ft 1 in. to hole
By:
mengmeng
When: 20 Jun 13 20:03
thats not great is it
By:
mengmeng
When: 20 Jun 13 20:06
bit happier now, looks like going for Zach may have been the right choice after all
By:
Ski-Wiz
When: 20 Jun 13 20:41
Scoreboard says 9.....
By:
Ski-Wiz
When: 20 Jun 13 20:43
Add, ''Shot 9 : Shot 9 putt, finally in the hole, now stop seeking attention in order to sell more trousers Mr Poulter.''
By:
Hank Hill
When: 20 Jun 13 20:46
Follow the bear Cool I guess under 35s won't know that reference Silly
By:
Knight Rider
When: 20 Jun 13 21:10
My dad used to drink that stuff Hank.  What was it 3.5% or something?  Appalling.
By:
Hank Hill
When: 20 Jun 13 21:41
I was too young to drink it KR Silly a bit of 80s nostalgia though eh
By:
Hank Hill
When: 20 Jun 13 21:42
Hoff - "I see your 62 and raise you with a 61" Grin
By:
Ski-Wiz
When: 20 Jun 13 21:53
Hoffy gets to 61.....CryCryCryCry

To think i'd considered going in again 2 hours ago.....decided not to.

Very limited trading this week on both tours, compare to last weeks and both are going well, so can't complain. Hopefully, they go onwards and upwards to victory, but with 3 rounds to go, anything can happen.
By:
mengmeng
When: 20 Jun 13 21:57
do you aim for a certain amount of profit each week ski? like a set money amount or a percentage of outlay ect? if too nosey sorry just curious
By:
therhino
When: 20 Jun 13 22:00
Team Rhino for the large part struggling. Mahan top 10 looks good but in the winners market, Bubba is flying the flag, and that is all.
By:
toberaheena
When: 20 Jun 13 22:01
This afficianado decided to lay Keegan @12.16 just before he makes his rare eagle. Not very bright.
By:
mengmeng
When: 20 Jun 13 22:04
could do with 1 more birdie from zach today, he missed a few shorties already!
By:
therhino
When: 20 Jun 13 22:06
in close on 17 meng
By:
mengmeng
When: 20 Jun 13 22:08
those are the ones hes been missing hehe. he could have been up with mahan by now, atleast it looks like hes playing well this week, something to hang on to. As does Bubba for you
By:
therhino
When: 20 Jun 13 22:14
Winning score gonna be real low. -20 at least.
By:
Ski-Wiz
When: 20 Jun 13 22:37

Jun 20, 2013 -- 9:57PM, mengmeng wrote:


do you aim for a certain amount of profit each week ski? like a set money amount or a percentage of outlay ect? if too nosey sorry just curious


No......i do not believe in setting a profit target. It's all psychology.....if one sets a profit target then that target will influence your activities and cause losses.

I simply have one target......green. It doesn't matter how much profit as a profit is a profit.

Hence on the final round, i take stock of my position and possibility of who can win, then adjust the greens based on probability of those who can win. If there are any reds on Sunday that looks like threatening my greens, i would not hesitate to green up using my software by keeping both eyes on the 'green-up' figure.

Therefore, i have no issue in accepting small greens, the lowest i had was probably 40 pence. On that day i had 1 big green and 1 big red in a play-off and chosen to green up. Sometime the one with green wins but many times the one with red wins. In the long run, i've calculated that greening up saved me money as i would have lost more.

It all comes down to discipline and targeting 'green' and avoiding 'red'. Profit target, in my opinion are for idiots.Wink

That why I do golf and not horse racing.

By:
mengmeng
When: 20 Jun 13 22:42
cool thanks for reply, just interested in how you look at is as a trader, for me laying off ect costs me more than it does just letting it ride and taking the losses, but aslong as there is profit at the end of the year we are all happy
By:
toberaheena
When: 20 Jun 13 22:54
@mengmeng.....just one other tip.....which may help you some day....do not stay betting at the keyboard if you are tired. Tiredness can creep up on you and you make a play you would not normally. And keep the snack or dinner high up on your schedule.Even the old Mars bar if there is necessity.
By:
mengmeng
When: 20 Jun 13 22:59
luckily i don't sleep, havn't you noticed i post randomly 24 hours a day lol. I bet pre off or inbetween rounds at the most, maybe get involved on the last day inplay if i have nobody in contention or my guy is looking shakey ect but apart from that i just watch, im a backer and not a trader, works better for me profit wise. I guess we all have to find the method that works for us, and im happy with the free time it gives me if i don't feel like sitting and watching the golf ect.

Though watching the golf is usually what i do lol
By:
Ski-Wiz
When: 20 Jun 13 23:07
I would further tobe's tip.

If on a Sunday and one been busy on the Euro tour, take a power nap of no more than 30 minutes in your office chair before the PGA tour.
By:
Ski-Wiz
When: 20 Jun 13 23:14
I would say we all have different methods on Betfair and most will have some similarities. My method is based on keeping data of what i did then formulate a 'what if' scenario. I.e, what if i didn't green up. In one year i would have lost overall. What if i didn't take any of my stakes back. I would have lost even more.

Hence by researching my own experiences of what i did and the 'what if' scenarios, i now stick to doing what i do without any deviations.
By:
mengmeng
When: 20 Jun 13 23:16
office chair? i sit on my bed with a laptop...im organised like that
By:
Ski-Wiz
When: 20 Jun 13 23:19
In bed........stop watching pornsLaughLaughLaughLaugh
By:
mengmeng
When: 20 Jun 13 23:21
yep i did the same ski, when you are not trading its a case of what point do i decide to lay off and the fact that i fancied him to win before the tournie so why would i lay off now that hes obviously in a better position than when he started, so overall i worked out i was better just to leave it and see what happens, sure i get plenty of losing weeks but winning weeks more than make up for it.
By:
mengmeng
When: 20 Jun 13 23:22
thats why i don't have time to trade ski lol
By:
Ski-Wiz
When: 20 Jun 13 23:54
Why not lay off?......95% of the times i laid off, i also back again at a higher price with less money but the greens are the same as it was pre-laying off. I lost nothing but gained an increase greens for the field or decreased reds for the field.
By:
mengmeng
When: 20 Jun 13 23:57
when do i choose what price to lay off at? 10/1 5/1 2/1 evens?  no guarentee price will be higher than when i layed off, its just more work and potentially mess profit ect. i dont have lots of greens remember, normally only back 1 or 2 players per tournie
By:
mengmeng
When: 20 Jun 13 23:59
like now i backed johnson at 50/1 what price should i lay off?

i guess b doing them each way i cover the need to layoff when they are in contention bbecause even top 5 can be 10/1 winner or there abouts
By:
Ski-Wiz
When: 21 Jun 13 00:05
When to choose is based on your experiences of understanding golf, the golfers and how odds fluctuate over the 4 days. That's why golf is better than horse racing.Wink

If Tiger Wood played well and leading in the first round i wouldn't lay him off until in running when he starts playing utter crap. In most cases he would go on to win.

If Rod Pampling was leading after the first round then i would lay him as his chances of winning is next to zilch.

You need to understand golf fully and the more information you have, you can make better decisions.

That's the fun of trading.....pitting one's knowledge against the others on here.....
By:
Ski-Wiz
When: 21 Jun 13 00:10

Jun 20, 2013 -- 11:59PM, mengmeng wrote:


like now i backed johnson at 50/1 what price should i lay off?i guess b doing them each way i cover the need to layoff when they are in contention bbecause even top 5 can be 10/1 winner or there abouts


The least you should do is get your stake back.....after that i can't advice as we have different opinions on who will win, who will go low on the 2nd round, whereas i may think that golfer will go above par in the 2nd round. Making those predictions and getting it right is fun when trading. Like cheering on your favourite football team.

By:
mengmeng
When: 21 Jun 13 00:14
true, but i wouldn't be backing someone i thought had no chance of winning so none of that is applicable to my thought process, on occasion i do lay off, for example if i was on Mahan and he was trading at 2/1 or so now i would lay off stake just to put it on someone else as that as to be value, but laying off id certainly the exception rather than the rule. Thats where gamblers and traders differ ofcourse and why betfair can operate
By:
mengmeng
When: 21 Jun 13 00:20
but why should i get my  stake back at the very least, if its @ 5/1 thats like having 5 more losing bets you have to cover if your selection goes on to win. I have a betting bank to cover the losing bets so that i don't need to worry about saving stakes for the next time ect. if i was lucky enough to have 10 weeks where my golfers got to 5/1 and i got my stake back thats alot of money thrown away just to preserve the stakes, providing 1 few win ofcourse
By:
Ski-Wiz
When: 21 Jun 13 00:31
Yes, i see your point but golf is harder to win when there are over 150 players and only one winner. But the thing is, i trade on over 20 to 50 golfers over the course of 4 days and if i didn't take any stake back, my greens would simple shrink to next to nothing.

Let me put it the other way. If you put £10 on @10 for a profit of £90, why not put £90 @ 10 then lay off @ 9 for a profit of £90. Same profit different methods. First method: low liquidity but 2nd method: higher liquidity = higher funWink
By:
mengmeng
When: 21 Jun 13 00:35
and i guess we have just illustrated the difference between traders and gamblers lol. good chat i enjoyed getting your insight in to how you go about it.
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