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THE PLAYERS.
THE PLAYERS.
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Kyle Stanley getting back to top form again after joining Nike stable.
Extremely long and a solid putter took a bit of the 140 this morning |
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I have been looking forward to the Player Championship as although the winners seem rather random there is a definite "winners profile". I have stuck to the last six years since the event moved from March to May as a lot of players say the course plays differently now although it may play quite similarly to 2005 when Funk won as the course is absolutely saturated. One might think that in such circumstances driving distance would be key but the shorter more accurate players prevailed. The key factor is course experience - Kuchar won on his 8th visit, Choi 10th, Clark 8th, Stenson 4th, Garcia 9th and Mickelson 11th. Whilst a top finish is not essential they had all had a top twenty finish at Sawgrass and all made the cut the year before. If you are looking for a repeat winner or defending champion then forget it as there hasn't been one and although it is called the 5th Major the record of Major winners isn't that great. I came up with quite a long short list but have ended up backing four and then added one other player who didn't fit the profile but was too big a price to leave out.
Nick Watney is my main pick and comes to Sawgrass for the seventh time and has a best finish of 4th two years ago when he led after round one. He has a good record in Florida overall including a win in the WGC at Doral in 2011. He is an incredibly consistent golfer - since missing the cut at the PGA Championship in August he has won twice and only missed one cut and his last three finishes read 13th @ the Masters and 15th and 10th - only struggling in the poor weather on Sunday last week. In the Wells Fargo he was 28/1 I just cannot see how he can be 50/1 this week when the favourites have such a poor event record - 0.8 ew 50/1 6 places In his first two attempts at Sawgrass Carl Pettersson missed the cut but in six subsequent starts he has managed a pair of top ten finishes. He hasn't been in the best of form this season but at the Heritage last time he was 7th for drving accuracy and 3rd for putting which bodes well for this week. He is now a five time winner on tour and is often underestimated 0.3 ew 125/1 6 places People may think it odd putting up a player like Brian Davis but Tim Clark finally broke his duck here and David Lynn proved that an English journeyman pro can go well on the PGA tour. Davis has been out here a lot longer than Lynn and has numerous top five finishes He was 5th here in 2009 and has been in really solid form of late 0.25 ew 150/1 6 places Stewart Cink hasn't won since the Open four years ago and it is no great surprise as he has been playing poorly but this year he is showing much improved form. He has had umpteen starts here with a best of 3rd in 2007 and despite his lowly finish last year he was 3rd for GIR. Whilst I said Major winners have a poor record I do think Cink can go well this week 0.25 ew 150/1 My final pick only has one start at Sawgrass and that was a missed cut but given his current form I cnanot leave out Kyle Stanley this week at the price available. He was 3rd at Louisiana - missed cut only previous start and then 6th at Quail Hollow where he had gone 45th/mc before so I think current form over-rides his course form. His win in Phoenix last year came the week after he had lost a playoff so he can hold a good run of form and I was surprised to see three figures - 0.2 ew 150/1 6 places. |
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So looking forward to this though think the last winner of the event I backed was Scott in 2004 after either the first or second round - think he was around 14's at the time. He went into the final round six ahead and almost blew it, holding on by the skin of his teeth.
Anyway, here's my portfolio: Luke Guthrie + 6,380 Bubba + 4,336 Scott Piercy + 2,195 Ogilvy + 2,110 Cink + 2,052 Kaymer + 1,230 Stricker + 1,040 Michael Thompson + 1,040 Field - 130 |
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Johnson Wagner @900 to trade, thank you. Have made decent first rounds here before
Other: Horschel @55 Stenson @75 Laird @160 and a small Potter Jr @560 |
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Ski-Wiz 06 May 13 19:52 Joined: 23 Sep 05 | Topic/replies: 4,827 | Blogger: Ski-Wiz's blog
Webb record around here is similar to Rory.....poor. Won't put me off...any idea why DJ pulled out last week? injury? |
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stenson, molder, horschel. wilson, scott, garcia,
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I have three players who I believe fit the bill and should be up there challenging on Sunday afternoon.
Luke Donald The former World No.1 is having a great season on the PGA Tour. He has made at each of his six starts. Five of those starts resulted in Top 25 finishes. His two Top 10’s are T4th at the Tampa Bay Championship and T3rd in the RBC Heritage. It is worth noting that the Tampa Bay Championship in Florida is played on Bermuda grass and the RBC Heritage is played at Harbour Town which was designed by Pete Dye. TPC Sawgrass is a Bermuda green course and was designed by Pete Dye. This season Donald’s stats have him ranked 49th in driving accuracy, 48th in strokes gained putting, 8th in scoring average, 17th in scrambling and 16th in 3 putt avoidance. His last event was the RBC Heritage where he was ranked 17th in driving accuracy, 19th in greens in regulation and 36th in putts per round. When it comes to Sawgrass Luke has started ten times and made seven cuts. In 2011 he finished 4th while he was 6th last year. Luke is coming off a 2 week break and should be primed for a good showing at a course that appears to suit his game. Henrik Stenson Henrik is based in Florida and has a real liking for Bermuda grass courses. This is one reason why he has been selected this week. The other two reasons are his excellent stats this season and his experience at TPC Sawgrass. Stenson started the season on the European Tour where he had the four starts resulting in T22nd, T23rd, T16th and T26th finishes. He then moved over to the PGA Tour where so far he has had seven starts. Two of those starts resulted in Top 10 finishes. He was T8th at the Arnold Palmer Invitational and T2nd in the Shell Houston Open. That was followed up by a T18th at the Masters Tournament. He is coming off a missed cut at the Wells Fargo Championship. His stats shout out at you from the page. 3rd in driving accuracy, 1st in greens in regulation, 1st in ball striking, 7th in scrambling from the rough and 29th in par 5 birdie or better average. These stats suit Sawgrass very well indeed! Course experience is a big factor this week and Henrik has plenty of it. From seven starts he has a 15th last year, MC in 2010, MC in 2009, 1st in 2009, 10th in 2008, 23rd in 2007 and 3rd in 2006. With a Florida connection and a love of Bermuda grass and the Sawgrass course, Stenson represents a great Each Way selection. Kevin Streelman The Duke University graduate is having the time of his life this season. From 12 starts he has made 9 cuts and had four Top 10s which include a Win at the Tampa Bay Championship in March. After starting the season ranked No.222 in the world, Streelman rocketed up to No.74 with his win in Florida. And now finds himself at No.54 after continuing his excellent form. His last two tournaments have resulted in T3rd RBC Heritage and T6th Wells Fargo Championship. There is no stopping this season as he rides the crest of a wave with a lot of confidence. A few little things stick out about his current results which will be an advantage this week. His Tampa Bay Championship win was in Florida and on Bermuda grass, just like The Players Championship. His 3rd place at the RBC Heritage was on a Pete Dye designed course; again just like TPC Sawgrass. At the Wells Fargo Championship he was ranked 14th in greens in regulation, 20th in driving accuracy and 29th in putts per round. This season his stats have him 24th in driving accuracy, 35th in greens in regulation, 24th in strokes gained putting, 10th in scoring average, 21st in Par 5 birdie or better average and 15th in ball striking. This will be his fifth trip to TPC Sawgrass after starting with two missed cuts then following that up with a T19th in 2011 and T51st last year. Expect to see Kevin use his confidence to work his way up the leaderboard this week and continue the fantastic season he is currently having. Good Luck and Good Punting. |
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A few players that have the experience and a good record around TCP
Clark Kaymer BVP Hanson Stenson Rollins Glover Sabbatini Of those the odds I like are Kaymer Glover Sabbatini Rollins But taken some of the others as well |
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Picked up Rollins @ 400
Kaymer 180 I do think these two are very close to getting in the mix they have played well |
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Tiger's price giving me the sh1ts, charged in at below early 8's thinking it was big as it was larger than his price for the majors. Intention was to trade most of it back at a lower price. Taking a red now ruins what was shaping as a great book as pretty much everything else has come in other than a couple which have stayed the same so no damage done... Still a little dumbfounded by it. Not sure whether to take the hit or take my chances, an early birdie is all it will probably take so I'm thinking I need to be brave by it's an amount I won't be happy losing if he is on the 1000 express. If he gets to about 8 pre off will prob wuss out though... Just when you think you're getting well on top of this caper you make a big boo boo
 Live and learn. |
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Tiger nearly always trades lower. Hope he gets a early tee time then I am sure you will be fine.
Also like Goosen at these odds 390, he is showing some signs and has played this course well before. Sabbatini at 440 seems good he has been skirting the leaderboard s lately and has good course form |
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No reason to desert Phil this week & thankfully the driver will be kept in the bag this week.
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any idea why DJ pulled out last week? injury?
No idea. |
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any idea why DJ pulled out last week? injury?
PONTE VEDRA BEACH, Fla. – This week will mark the return to the PGA Tour for two high-profile players, although Davis Love III’s stay on the DL was markedly longer than Dustin Johnson’s. Johnson returns to action at The Players after missing just one start with a strained right wrist. He withdrew from last week’s Wells Fargo Championship and went home to South Florida to rest the ailing wrist, although his manager with Hambric Sports Management said he was feeling better and spent the weekend working on his game. For Love, The Players – which he has won twice – will be his first start since undergoing neck surgery in February. Last year’s Ryder Cup captain had scrapped plans to play the RBC Heritage and last week’s stop at Quail Hollow Club in order to be 100 percent. “He wanted to make sure there were no setbacks,” said Love’s trainer, Randy Myers. Love, who will be making his 28th Players start, played nine holes at TPC Sawgrass on Sunday and participated in an 18-hole charity tournament at Sea Island (Ga.) Resort on Monday to benefit the Tucker Anderson Foundation. |
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GIR and TD are so important here
Boo, Glover, Laird, Kaymer at their odds, real value in my book. Deplaster, have you finally given up on Pod? Couldn't help myself when I saw 360, good record here. |
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Eric, hadn't in a while but, decided last week to chance him as his last 8 rounds at Doral were in the 60's. Cue his first 80 in years!
 .360's is tempting but he is to enigmatiac to predict, and the belly putter last week is a real sign of desperation, especially as he was one of the guys real against it! One flew over the cuckoos nest is Pod, bless him. Phil & Adam for me this week & tempted by mad Billy again. GL. |
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Keegan Bradley 65
Jim Furyk 65 Kevin Streelman 140 Ryan Moore 180 Kyle Stanley 130 Jimmy Walker 180 Robert Garrigus 190 John Senden 330 Kevin Stadler 450 Bryce Molder 630 James Driscoll 1000 *Best Bet in Bold |
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2 big odds orders filled
Romeo good record here, 800s Ken Duke so consistent should go well 800s |
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I didn't realise until I checked Ken Duke is top of the driving accuracy stats. His odds are ridiculous
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It would be best to wait and see if Pod revert to normal putter (back) or continue using the belly putter. (forget it)
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With regards Pod, am happy to throw a few quid at him at those odds. He is just a character and so mentally strong, if he gets a sniff he will be there. But yes I do want to see him with the short putter. It's his driving that's the concern to me.
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2 that you have to have in your team on this course, is Stenson and Clark
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Forget the driving.....after last week, what putter he use will be everyone number 1 concern.
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Too low?
Stenson was available @ 80s Clark @ 120s That was good value in my book, both quality, both ex winners, both top of the accuracy off the tee stakes. |
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Another I really like on this course with a top 15 performance and win on this years tour at big odds is Brian Gay real value at 430s
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Clark seems much too low to me now. If you got 120s fair enough, but 80s/85s in a field this good? Pass.
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Rhino, Tiger is a big pass in this event hence his drift. Whilst I would never say he 'can't' win his record in this event apart from his one win in his golden year is poor by his standards and there's nothing in the profile of recent winners to or his recent form anywhere other than courses he loves to suggest he'll come good this year. If I was a 'layer' I would be taking him on big time. Same for Rory as well who again whilst, he is again capable of winning anywhere, is again a big pass this year based on all known course form and past winners profile.
Basically as you'll see from mine & TMM's profile for the week, from a winners point of view you can forget Tiger, Rory & other recent 'big time' new kids on the block such as D Johnson, Bradley & Webb Simpson. Bold statement I know & feel free to shoot me down end of the week when DJ hacks up! |
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I see your point Sundog, but are you sure he's not having another golden year? Last 3 starts - win, win, T4 and the t4 probably would have been a win if not for a horrendous piece of luck and the subsequent drama that followed... 3 wins for the year from 6 events, and forget about him? Appreciate your effort with your form guide but to dismiss him because of it - can't do that.
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Wood can win this based on his form this year.....would rather wait and get something around 20 rather than under 10.
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My 3 against the field..
Gmac...46's too big.Drives it great and has learnt the art of scrambling,came close here a few years back.. Snedeker....ok next to zero course form just a 12th and and missed cuts to his name but this guy for me is still the most underrated player in world golf and 50's is also way too big. My big outsider for the players...step forward Brian Harman 570/1 top 10 last week and made the cut on his first showing here.. I haven't touch golf trading for a few years now ...hopefully the liquidity picks up this week...good luck to all. |
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people writing off tiger are you mad... would you want to take 1/8 that the best golfer that has ever lived, who if he puts the ball in the fairway will contend without doubt on his current form, who like phil mickleson doesnt even need to put his driver in his bag this week if he wished, wont win this week?
6 places with pp and baldy 8/1 id rather be a player than a layer thats for sure with the great man winning 3 of his last 6 starts, arguably would of been 4 out of 6 taking into account his ball hitting the pin at the 15th at augusta |
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I'm back this week with a reasonable size bet. I have to say I made my 3 on the shortlist but went for only 1 in then end. My 3 were Carl Petterson, Martin Kaymer, and Kyle Stanley.
I see TMM also has tipped up Carl and Kyle so was pleased we are thinking on the same page (sort of)... Anyway I ended up going for Kyle Stanley purely because I found some awesome value I backed him at 6/1 for Top 20 and 14/1 for Top 10 and 30/1 for Top 5, with most of the money on Top 20... 6/1 for a Top 20 for a quality player (due to his bounceback victory last year - he is quality in my book), given his last 2 starts of 3rd and 6th, was imo a way to big a price, surely his true odds of finishing in the top 20 this week are more like 1 in 3 or 4. |
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Martin Kaymer @ 190 is an exceptional price, IMO.
I know the guy's been iffy of late, but this course is a different animal, and his form round here is A1. His finishing position has improved every time that he's played it, so this time around, the winner's circle is not beyond the realms. Another player who has been mystifyingly poor recently is Hunter Mahan, but at the current price of 160, he's worth a few rupees. |
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Down at the rear end of the market I think that Justin Leonard, and Josh Teater, are both decent punts at silly prices, over 700s.
Leonard has won this thing, albeit a long time ago, but he has shown some glimpses of bygone days this year. |
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There are always silly prices when the field is this strong Maggot - good luck to your roughies.
@ Ski - for Tiger to be 20s he'd have to be 5 or 6 back. Would you really prefer to back him in that situation? You obviously have a strategy that works for you, but your posts often make me wonder if you're trying to ramp prices. You'd want 40s for Donald? 20+ for Tiger before getting involved? Michael Caton's line from The Castle "Tell him he's dreaming" springs to mind. |
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Lots I fancy this week. Donald, Westwood, Stenson and Van Pelt my team of those 'short'.
In the three figure prices, I think Freddie Jacobson is a huge price at 125/1 quarter top 6. Probably the most consistent player on tour this season. Has finished in the top 25 on all of his last 7 starts including three top tens. Decent enough Masters Tournament, and has gone well here before. Also backed him at 11/1 in the top ten market. Cheers |
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Retief @ 430s.... Knows his way round here. Big price.
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