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Don't stick your balls in the water, there may something nasty in there...
Jeff Maggert @ 1000
Jeff Maggert @ 1000
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Is it just me or has the new date (relatively new) for the players diminished its importance and standing?
The old March date was always eagerly anticipated, partly because it was the normally the strongest field we'd get to see up to that point, also, the Masters was only 3 weeks away, now, between the WGC's and the Masters being over, it's really lost a lot of lustre imo. |
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I prefer it here. We have the WGC matchplay and WGC championship in feb march time this provides a big event in may meaning every month from feb to september has a big event.
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my first ever decent collect was on this event a number of years ago on scott probably going back to 2009.....he was a 50/1 shot......so have fond memories of sawgrass.........seem to remember last year rory didnt play as he said course dosent suit his game......looking forward to your views on event
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Henrik Stenson 75/1
Nick Watney 65/1 Luke Donald 22/1 Jim Furyk 75/1 Brian Davis 250/1 Kevin Streelman 140/1 Will back teo of the above once I have looked a little closer at the stats, form etc |
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Not sure the course suits anyone to be honest, always been a lottery and not many who consistently do well. Last 3 winners there is a bit of a trend - Kuchar, Choi and Clark means the plodders do well and Choi was over another in Toms via a playoff. Course management the key. 7.6 on the best in the world seems fairly generous to me and not too excited about Donald's price but he is consistent here, in decent form and ticks the course management box. Taken a few early prices - Boo at 200s, Walker at 180/190, Choi at 190 and Kokrak at 400 plus a bit at 500, will back him every time at those odds.
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http://www.pgatour.com/tournaments/the-players-championship.html
Look at the images and you can see the 'famous' water par 3 in a 'lake'....almost submerged and the walking strip is submerged. Will they ferry the players across in a dingy? |
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Only bet so far is £300 on Mr Tiger at 7.6.
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£400. Tiger. Going in again for another at 7.6
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£85 G'Mac at 46.
£75 Donald at 23. |
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Some amazing prices about for a Monday, gonna be a heap of money matched this week. Stakes back on Boo at 150s, got Henley at 220s partially laid at 170s, partial lay on Kokrak at 300s, backed Tiger, G-Mac at 46s, Luke at 23s, Keegan at 75s, DJ at 65s, Points at 180s/190s. Be looking to trade lots before round 1.
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Back.
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Justin R £45 at 29.
Kuch £30 at 42. Stevie Strick £25 at 70. Jim Furyk £25 at 70. Poults £20 at 95. Henley £5 at 210 and a few orders in on the bigger prices. Liability so far is -£818. |
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everytime stricker plays im amazed at his price, i just dont get why its always so high
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Gmac (46) and Donald (23)...poor value IMO.
Would want Gmac (80 to 90) and Donald (40). |
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Laid Rory at 10 last night and traded....Laid Rose at 22 and traded.
Expect liquidity to be much better this week. |
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Watson at 85, almost 2.5 times bigger than the bookie.
Charl at 46. |
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First look I will back Zacj Johnson @ 90s
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Waiting for £20 on Jebus Zac at 95.
Had to put yet another Ton on Tiger at 8. ( £600 ) |
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Moore at 180, almost 2.5 times bigger than the bookie.
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Stakes back on G Mac at 42. I like Zach but want the layers to take him on a bit he drifted significantly last week towards the off. Tiger at 8s is huge.
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What bookie ski?
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You need to drive the ball well at Sawgrass to win.
Woods doesn't have a great record here. With it being so wet accuracy will be even more important. |
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my little lot
Nick Watney 0.8 ew 50/1 6 places Carl Pettersson 0.3 ew 125/1 6 places Kyle Stanley 0.2 ew 150/1 6 places Brian Davis 0.25 ew 150/1 6 places Stewart Cink 0.25 ew 150/1 6 places |
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"Woods has found success, at times, by avoiding his driver altogether and utilizing his fairway woods and long irons in its stead. That would be a smart strategy for him to employ at the Players, as distance isn't as important as accuracy on this course."
http://bleacherreport.com/articles/1629961-biggest-keys-for-tiger-woods-at-the-players-championship-in-2013 |
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Mickelson has said he may not put a driver in the bag as he could not think of a hole where he would need to hit a driver.
As has been said accuracy is more important than length. |
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[i]therhino 06 May 13 08:05
Not sure the course suits anyone to be honest, always been a lottery and not many who consistently do well.[/i. Not as big a lottery as you think Rhino! I shall now reveal the secret to finding the winner of the Players! Firstly course experience is absolutely essential here. Going back to 2005 the last 8 winners of the players were as follows and next to them by my calculation were how many starts they had made in the event including the year they won. 2005 Fred Funk 12 2006 S Ames 8 2007 P Mickelson 14 2008 S Garcia 9 2009 H Stenson 4 2010 T Clark 8 2011 KJ Choi 10 2012 M Kuchar 8 As you'll see everyone of them bar Stenson had made at least 8 starts with the average amount of starts being 9. Whilst Stenson had made only 3 starts previously he had a 10th & 3rd in those 3 starts, which brings me to the next thing, course form. Looking at those 8 winners everyone of them had a top 15 on the course in the previous 3yrs apart from Kj who was 16th 5yrs before and had 3 straight top 10s coming in to the event, again as follows; Fred Funk 10th Yr before S Ames 2nd 4yrs before P Mickelson 3rd 3yrs before S Garcia 2nd yr before H Stenson 10th yr before & 3rd 3yrs before T Clark 9th Yr before KJ Choi 16th 5yrs before M Kuchar 13th 2yrs before & 14th 3yrs before. As you can see course form as essential and it takes some players, Toms being a perfect example years to get to grips with the course. When you put the above into the pot I get the following players who are making at least their 8th start & have the requisite recent high finish. Robert Allenby Aaron Baddeley Jonathan Byrd Ben Crane Ben Curtis Luke Donald Brian Gay Lucas Glover Freddie Jacobsen Zach johnson Carl Petterson Steve Stricker David Toms Bo Van Pelt [It's also worth noting that Westwood, Watney & Mahan have the course form and are making their 7th start.] Whilst current form is not as important as course form or experience, none of the last 8 winners had missed their most recent cut so on that basis I am going to dismiss Badds. In addition all bar Sergio [who had a couple of top 20s] had had a top 10 on the PGA tour that year. On that basis out go Allenby & Byrd. In addition I'm going to dismiss Zach & Curtis as they only had an 18th in first event of the year in a 30 runner field. I'm also going to pass on Toms & Stricker as I am looking for someone who is as close to their 8th, 9th or 10th start and both of these now have had more starts over the years than anyone other than Phil when he won who is a rule to himself. That leaves us with Crane, Luke, Brian Gay, Freddie Jac, Lucas Glover, Carl Petterson & BVP. I'm not going to put anyone off Luke & of the leading runners in the market he would be my main pick but I'm looking for the possible winner with E/W value Hopefully I won't regret it but I'm put of Lucas Glover on the basis that this is his 5th week on the run and he seems to play his better golf when fresh. In addition his wife is due to give birth any day & he has made it clear he'll walk of the course if she goes in to labour during an event! That leaves me with my main selections for the week of Crane, Gay, BVP, Petterson & Freddie Jac. I think Gay is great value at 200's e/w as he also has the Pete Dye form on Hilton Head as does Big Carl although I'm a bit more wary of his form this season. I've also taken Watney who has course form, current form & enough class to slightly buck the trend. In addition I've had small e/w dabble on Allenby at 500s as he actually strung 3 good rounds together at at Wells Fargo and stranger things have happened [yesterday for example!] In a nutshell though the perfect profile winner is either Crane or BVP both of whom are making their 9th start in the event and have multiple high finishes here. I should say that for the above I've dismissed recent winners repeating such as Phil, Sergio, stenson, which you cannot rule out. No doubt there is a mistake somewhere on my stats but hopefully this we'll be of use & as I'll be on hol for a couple of weeks from this weekend you can thank me for the winner when I get back! Good luck everyone  |
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Fantastic post.
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luscious
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great post, good luck
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You've been looking at my crib sheet sundogmonkey lol
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Cheers guys, obviously if it was as easy as above, we'd all have the winner every week but you've got to start somewhere and at the end of the day experience is essential here.
Muppet, looking at your selections Cink obviously ticks a lot of boxes particulary with his Hilton Head form & Davis is an interesting one. I should have added from my criteria all bar Clark of the past 8 winners had won on PGA tour & Clark had 4 international wins as well as experience of competing at the business end of majors & other big events & whilst Davis has won on euro tour & has course form & other Pete Dye form I just can't see him falling over the line. As I said though stranger things have happened! |
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Top 60 in scoring average is another trend fitting Jacob, Baddy and Donald.
Only wish you waited till Wednesday before putting that up as wanted certain player's price to drift. You'd let the cat out of the bag a bit early but never mind. |
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Webb simpson is going in soon,this week could be it.
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Webb record around here is similar to Rory.....poor.
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Sorry Ski! Just trying to help my fellow forumites find a winner!
Anyway I'm sure there are numerous websites, blogs etc with far more street cred than me tipping all sorts of players. Besides, which my bets are all on with the bookies this week anyway! |
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Actually your tipping were very good....a few matched my thoughts hence i went 'ggggrrrrrr' when i saw post.
I added the top 60 trend above to narrow your tips down a bit. |