Bay Hill musings...

well done last week maggot !

tigers won 7 ihere i think, so that,ll do me, 10/3 seems to have gone

He is 10/3 on fixed odds and I was allowed a massive £ 27 at that price

yeah well done maggott, i backed him too................ at 12.0   

@maggot......can I have your opinion on this strategy. Lay Tiger now at 3,s, possibly backing back ner pre start if he drifts or take the gamble that he goes a point over 3,s early in first round. And a quick question about when we will have tee times and pairings. 2 balls or 3.

i know you asked maggot but here's my take tobe. do it. you have your own method and do well from what i have observed. plenty of empirical evidence that this is true on these forums. go with your gut.
not much downside to the move as you can always get out of dodge with minimal loss (or back him at a sh1t price) if you decide to switch to team tiger during round 1.

and Tobe he will not need to lead after round 1 to maintain the price. As long as he's on the first page of the leaderboard he will keep shortening - same as everybody else unless there is a runaway. Say he's 2 back after round 1 tied with 7 or so players and behind another 6 or 7, his chances of winning are now better than at the start when tied with 140 odd players or however many there and the price will shorten accordingly. Definitely doesn't need to lead.

Tiger won it by 5 shots last year when he
wasn't playing well, so maybe the 3/1 is
value taking into account his current form
The one question of course , how much trust
have we got in Tiger these days?
Well, he has won twice already this year, and
in the WGC last time out i think it's fair to
say his game was good and he won more comfortably
than the winning margin suggests

I won't be taking low odds on Tiger.........i suspect there will be higher odds available at some point.

Depends on how he's driving off the tee.....would back at 6 to 8.

trying a few ew,backes tiger at 13 last time out,wont take 3/1, ogilvy,kj choi and sean o hair backed so far also may get on westwood to be top european 7/1

good call(hopefully) on Harman,maggot.I've been championing his cause since he came on tour,in my opinion the twice walker-cupper will break through on tour this year along with Tringale.Last year on his debut here Harman recovered from an opening 77 to finish T15,despite last years poor opening round Harman might be worth afew quid on the "first round leader" market in his last 19 tournaments he's had three 2nds,3rd and a 4th in opening rounds(125/1 ****).Anyways nice win for you last week lets hope you're on a roll!

Come to Australia Tobe! The slots here... are everywhere.

On Sunday night we will probably be saying one of two things - either Tiger will never be as dominant as he once was and 3/1 was an awful price or - he's back and 3/1 was a steal. I am rather stuck on the fence and may well look to get him onside in running. With Woods being so dominant at Bay Hill it is rather difficult to see any other sort of pattern but I have gone for three players at big odds with hoepfully getting one placed but I have also backed all three to small stakes without Woods - just in case!
I will stick to Lucas Glover again this week as he started well last week but was undone by a poor second round. He hasn't played much at Bay Hill over the years but his three starts do look quite interesting under closer inspection. In 2006 he led at the cut before eventually finishing 17th, in 2008 he was 3rd after the opening round and in 2009 after a slow start he eventually finished 11th. With a record like that I am actually surprised he hasn't played it more often as I am sure he would have been invited.0.4 ew 125/1 + 0.1 ew without Woods 110/1 + 0.1 ew 100/1 Round one leader.
Kyle Stanley may seem like an unusual pick as he has played some very poor golf since his win in Phoenix a year ago but that anniversiary has now passed and in his only start since he defended he played much better in the Honda Classic leading the total driving stats. He played here twice as an amateur after winning the Southern Amateur in 2007 and 2009. He also played the US Open at Torrey Pines as an amateur and lost in a playoff there last year and also played as an amateur at Deere Run in 2009 and was 2nd to Stricker there in 2011. I guess you can see where I am heading with this - it seems he is worth backing on courses where he gained some experience as an amateur. He was 12th here in 2011 leading the all round stats on his only start as a pro and says he can't wait to tee it up this week 0.3 ew 200/1 + 0.1 ew without Woods 125/1
Brian Harman is last man in mainly due to his one start here last season when he was 15th and 3rd in the all round stats. What was really impressive about that start last year was that he opened with a 77 but then only Woods played the next three days better. He has started playing some good golf the last few weeks and he could be the surpirse package 0.25 ew 175/1 + 0.1 ew without Woods 125/1

I'm on Harman as well - FRL and without Woods

Also backed Perez at 100/1 without Woods. Decent performance last week and has 3 top 10's here over the years

here's a couple of short profiles on the lad,he comes across as a well grounded young fella.

http://www.pgatour.com/video.html/2013/02/27/brian-harman-golf-feature

http://www.pgatour.com/video.html/2013/02/

Keegan - holding his form well and can perform in this region and though he missed the cut on his only start here last year, G Mac went close here last year with a uninspiring course record.

Guthrie - dipped in the last couple of weeks after that disappointing final round in the Honda. Was 200 on here a couple of days ago now 120. It's not S Palmer so maybe he's about to be picked by Tour Tips as he's high on their course compatibility ratings.

Think I'm going mad would never normally consider such a short price in a big field but Tiger looks value at 7/2

I'm also on Glover at 125s E/W for top 6.

In addition can't believe Boooo's not getting a mention hear. A ball striker's course in Florida is the part of the world where he's always likely to produce his best golf and he's putting is better than it has been for ages.

My other long shot outsider is Charlie Beljan. Obviously very inconsistent however he's proved with his win & couple of second places that he's not afraid when in the mix and that he's capable of playing well on the back of a run of M/C. My main reason however for picking him is that he seems very much an 'inspirational player' and he should have good vibes being back in Orlando the scene of his Disney win and with the Disney event no longer in the calendar this as close as he'll come to defending!

It's worth noting as well that TMM refers to Lucas Glover's halfway lead here in 08 but what wasn't mentioned was that this came on the back of his 2007 win in Disney. There are other examples as well of players such as Stephen Ames who have performed well at both events in the past and there's no doubt that a player can get positive vibes when back in a town where they've had success, stayng at the same hotel, eating at the same places etc, even if the event is at a different course. At 250s e/w for top 6 earlier in the week it was certainly enough to make me have a nibble.

Good luck everyone

Billy Haas for me.

For toberaheena from last week's thread.

Quincy 20 Mar 13 17:15 
toberaheena, on the back-to-lay side I only bet in English races.  Each way multiples, do better with the Irish racing, when I can get on.  The Leopardstown card on February 9th has thrown up about 15 winners so far, quite a few at Cheltenham including Champagne Fever, Our Conor, Lord Windermere (Boston Bob fell in that race), Sir Des Champs, second in the Gold Cup, Tennis Cap (2nd to Ted Veale), and Salsify.  The Irish races seem to be run at a truer pace than the English.  I don't worry too much about the mili-seconds, at my age the brain and fingers aren't that quick.  Just put the field in to lay at odds-on and see what I finish up with.  Agree with you about Vodaphone, got a great deal on an Apple Ipad last month.