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I don't think I'm going too far out on a limb to suggest Rory and Tiger will be short this week.
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Hard to see past Rory, and Tiger, but I will try.
Jeff Overton interests me here. Had a few bob E/W @ 70. Yet to win, and on the back of that, his price is always a little disappointing, but a good performance at the Deutsche, and this week playing at home. Also Noh E/W@ 125s. Could well have been right up there last week, if not for some sloppy golf on day three. |
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...
http://www.golf.com/tour-and-news/story-john-dalys-win-1991-pga-championship |
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Looking at the Fedex system , reset points etc , there is not a huge advantage in someone like Rory putting distance between himself and the rest of the pack by blowing them away again this week . Rory has 4799 points , Watney 3468 , Tiger 3417 , Snedeker 3194 . If Rory won again , or finished second gaining another 2500 0r 1500 points the competition would be essentially over without playing the last event if the reset formula did not apply . But it does , second in the top 30 is only 250 points behind the leader , even if they were 3000 points behind in second place after the BMW .
The organisers want a grandstand finish , not the acknowledged top winner and placer galloping off with the ( huge ) prize money . So the best player over the year and over the playoffs does not necessarily win the jackpot , he has the best start in the final event , but we all know about Wiggins type disappointments and golf rounds ( even based on 72 holes ) dont always yield the result to the biggest , strongest , most talented , even if thats the way to bet ( apologies to D R ). Phil played with more intensity recently than I have associated with him in recent seasons , might just have enough petrol in the tank to cobble together 8 good consecutive rounds , as advancing years inhibit the possibility of a swansong . Guess the players floating around the top of the leaderbaord know these facts , as do the other 25 or so who will make up the top 30 . Trick for them is to get as far up the pecking order as they can to have a realistic chance of overhauling Rory and Nick and Tiger etc in the final furlong . So to get a run for my money , I would be looking further down the current leaderbaord , at someone capable of mounting a challenge to Rory and Tiger on their day , and playing 2 good tournaments in a row in a sustained bid for 10 million . Ref previous comments re Phil . |
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No 14.5 on Woody or Rory this week......damn......the layers woken up eh.
However seeking value.....spotted a few.....will tell you lot after i get matched ![]() ![]() |
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Big Dusty.
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Rory playing with Tiger...
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Sorry maggot , priority . Now its Tiger playing with Rory . Thats what the figures say anyway .
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webb simpson 50/1 again this week even though only 70 runners double the price of scott, mickleson and dustin who never win
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Taken some Hunter Mahan @ 122s.
All of the Ryder Cup stuff out of the way, or is it ? Will Hunter want to show Davis Love what he's missing ? Whatever, a big price. |
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Ben Crane is the only winner this week
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Cant give my tip as I am still chasing a price but I cant believe the price he is trading at as everyone is focusing on Rory and Tiger, not that I would either but surely they are too short, Rory has made me some serious money with the 20s I got for the USPGA and the 14.5 last week, great performances but I left Rory alone after the USPGA as winning is stressfull and I am doing the same this week, Tiger is playing great, but not Tiger great, too short for me. And who is backing Dustin Johnson ? Will win tournaments but in general his short iron play is not accurate enough and his putting is ordinary ! Very tempting to keep on Rorys side but its not possible at the price available so I am leaving him out, And big Phil needs a mention, playing well and may be dangerous but yet again not at the odds available, always worth including at around the 50s mark but not at anything less.
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Kelly they reset the points because in the early years the thing was over before the final event. Vijay won it after two events one year. Tiger also had it sown up early on despite missing an event on year. Now anyone in the top 5 will win the fed ex cup if they win the final event.
Personally i like the format. It brings together the best players in the world for 4 weeks on the spin at time when the golfing season once use to wilt. |
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backed
keegan bradley win 36s robert garrigus 150/1 ew scott piercy 200/1 ew 150/1 ew |
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Dustin will be getting backed on the back of two good weeks and the fact its a bombers course.
Personally i think he is under rated. If he can sort out his wedges he will be not far behind the top 2. |
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backed
keegan bradley win 36s robert garrigus 150/1 ew scott piercy 200/1 ew ryan palmer 150/1 ew |
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Louis Ooosty 26 - backed him last couple of weeks, and no reason to desert.
Webb Simpson 55 - bit in and out but should not be nearly 4x the price of Dustbin ! |
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Snapped up the early 95s on Zach and 75s on BVP. Stakes back at 80 and 55 but both still nice greens.
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This is a long course 7516 (7281 avg this season ) yards and has four par 5s (svg this year 3). suggests a long hitter is suited especially with jon daly winning here. With no venue form the stats maybe be best form of info Distance Par 5 performance and par 5 birdie average. i wont be getting involed til the cut however. good luck everyone
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This is a long course 7516 (7281 avg this season ) yards and has four par 5s (svg this year 3). suggests a long hitter is suited especially with jon daly winning here. With no venue form the stats maybe be best form of info Distance Par 5 performance and par 5 birdie average. i wont be getting involed til the cut however. good luck everyone
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forgot one of my selections earlier post
backed keegan bradley win 36s robert garrigus 150/1 ew scott piercy 200/1 ew ryan palmer 150/1 ew carl petterson 100ew also backed ryan plamer first round leader 125 ew garrigus 100 ew scott piercy 125 ew good luck all |
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don't know why i feck around and give my tips pre off since i do most of my manouvres in running and cant be fecked posting them as they are too numerous. lol.
bragging rights i guess. bragging rights over people i've never met!! hahaha ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() anyways, last week i couldnt decide to go team pokeron (scott,hoff,clark,vijay) or back just tiger and rory. so i did what any good donk would do and did both. got lucky but diminished returns. if i don't curb my pre-off fetishes i'll get creamed soon....that's my point. this week is very simples. back two dudes for $100 each pre off and then manourvres.... back with the bragging rights tips soon ![]() |
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Interesting no1 on here seems to be mentioning Garcia. A win and tied 3rd in his last 2 starts, fresh from a break last week on a course that will suit him. Should be easy money
![]() Overton 1st round leasder as well 70/1 with Corals. E/W top 5. he'll come out guns blazing on his home course... |
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BVP also from Indiana. Can go one of 2 ways the home town thing, I'm hoping for BVP at least he heads in the right direction. Agree with you about Garcia ratters taken him in the tipping comp, missed the 32s great price for a player bang in form in a 70 man field.
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I got 30's on him which im more than happy about. I think because he didnt play last week, people have forgot about him!
Ive only had Overton 1st rd leader as i doubt he will win the whole tounry, hasnt got the bottle, but i think 1st rd leader is good bet each way, as is Petterson maybe as well. |
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We have no course form to go on so I will stick with one player who has strong local ties and who at least has been playing the course which I think maybe vital this week with one day less in the tournament turnaround due to the Monday finish in Boston. Jeff Overton was really keen to get to play this week and only qualified by a 7th place at last weeks Deutsche Bank. Whilst he hasn't won on tour his career is littered with top five finishes so is worth a small play outright at 80/1 (0.25 ew) and having the course advantage he could well get off to a fast start on day one as he did last week - 0.15 ew Rd 1 leader 66/1.
Same thoughts as quite a few! |
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Yeh Overton 1st round leader is a cracking bet, i managed to get 80's e/w at corals before they cut their price to 66.
Bets on Garcia (main bet) Tiger Dufner Scott Keeeeeeeeeeeegan (god knows why but if he wins i would kick myself) 1st round leader Petterson and Overton e/w GL all |
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Added Scott Piercy @ 305s, and E/W @ 200s.
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Whats the general consensus with this course? I know there isnt much history to go off but is this going to be a low scoring tourny or will we see a -6 or 7 winning? Ive had a look at the hole descriptions on the pga website, and it looks pretty tough to me!
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Zach Johnson
Kyle Stanley Song you'll know |
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Yeh, Piercy is a lively outsider @ 300. Should GMac be 120. And missed cuts don't bother Bubba. 50 ish is large on this track. We should all keep Cauley in the back of our minds too.
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Ratters Pete Dye is expecting an ultra low winning score.
The course is long but on some holes they will carry onto downslopes so length won't be a massive issue. It is also a par 72 |
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Added Scott Percy again @295s and e/w at 200s...
Massive value....... |
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Have added Snedeker at 48, to Webb, and have topped up again on Oosty at 36 - seems he's drifting as an interview has now been published where he's saying he felt that tweak from the 5th on the final round - where he'd previously played it down.Doubt he'd have felt it too much if he'd prevailed and ever since the mighty Jonathan Kaye hobbled through the last dozen holes to victory in the FBR nearly 10 years ago,I try and find a reason to ignore this stuff.
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balls deep on mr mickelson. $200 on him. hopefully good first round then minimal manouvres.
$50 bonus bet kuchar with sportingbet. he's due to do stuff. loves pete dye courses apparently... + manouvres in running (basically tiger and rory watch) |
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Scott +1280
BVP +1550 Zach +880 Sergio +1180 The field -100 Had to add Sergio at 32s, market still doesn't respect him. |
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Scott @23 - Seems to have got past Open dissapointment and back on song.
Westwood @32 - Looks to have his mind back on track. Overton @120 - Hometown boy found some form. Kevin Stadler @300 - last 2 tournies top 10 - Deusche Bank and Barclays not many can match that. Despite Fred Funk winning the Seniors here I wouldn't want to be with the short hitters. |
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Dustin only outright this week, odds skinny though, Rory's price starting to tempt me though.
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