Valero Texas Open

Don't know if I'll get involved this week. Hard to get a picture of whats required to win this and only Jacobsen has any solid recent form here.

My early research doesn't point to any of the current favourites being value thats for sure

and Charley Hoffman

jimmy walker for me loves the course in fairly good form at the moment and a decent price 66/1 ladbrokes

Not really posted for a while but had express my disappointment in the field this week, This field is only marginally better than the ones that turn up for the Mayakoba and Puerto Rico tournaments.

Got to think that a first time winner is going to take this, and seeing two 'big' guys compete in the final 2 ball 2 days running last week and ending up finishing 1st and 3rd can only give inspiration to another big guy who finished very well last week, Kevin Stadler. All his best results this year have come on courses that are exposed to wind, and this week in Texas won't be any different. Stadlers best finishes this year;

4th - RBC Heritage
7th - Puerto Rico
9th - Honda Classic
16th - Mayakoba (only E on the weekend)

Where not even half way through the season but that is some really solid form, add to that he was 36th in this last year which included a 2nd round 77 it doesn't look that bad, especially when he was coming into the week with no real form to speak of.

60-1 in this field looks a fairly decent price imo.

Also like the look of;

Johnson Wagner (didn't play great at the Masters but his game wasn't suited and first timers generally dont do to well at Augusta, still playing some good golf prior to the masters and is a great putter. has also won in Texas and won this year on a windy course, big plus he knows how to win)

Harris English (This boy looks a real talent, has a great swing and although he has looked a little suspicios up near the lead, he is playing well enough to get up there and can see him winning in the next couple of years)

John Huh (one of only a couple of winners this year playing this week which was on a windy course in Mexico, he didn't play to well last week but again, first timers don't do to well at Harbour Town. He was still showing some form after his win in Mexico with a t14 at the Shell Houston (Texas). looks rather overpriced at a 100-1)

My 4 against the field are :

Jacobsen
Hoffman
Stroud
Frazar

20 months ago Kim probably had better form... "AK withdrew after 18 holes of the Houston Open two weeks ago due to a shoulder injury. He's 2-for-8 this year with no top 40s. "

Could see Choi going alright this week though.

Yeah shocking field this, never been the best event but this looks really poor. Volvo looks equally uninteresting.

My head is saying don't get involved but the last 3 events have me well ahead so I'll have a go at trading again. Usually pick between 10 and 20 players but this week I'm starting with just seven:

Jacobsen
Hoffman
Holmes
Tringale
Walker
Streelman
Stadler

Can't say any are good value particularly but it does look a weak event and most of these have good form here or in Texas generally and have some half decent form recently - certainly comparitively to most of the field.

Happy to oppose Kuchar at the price. A quick review of his career gave me the impression he gos off the boil around this time of the season, usually after a good start to the year.

It may be a bad field but there is still value to be had.

It's also nice to have a few weeks without the hype of the majors and a chance to keep an eye on some future picks at big prices.

I have added Colt Knost. He was supposed to be the next big thing but has struggled to live up to the hype. Last weeks excellent performance in a tougher field will give him a lot of confidence and it wouldn't surprise me if he gets off to a flyer again.

It looks like it should play long but Zach Johnson has won it twice. Total driving more important for me maggot.

Difft course that Zach won on khpunter

ts place in the calendar is likely to be a contributory factor for the big names giving it a miss although it could also be that the new TPC San Antonio course - designed by Greg Norman and first used in 2010 - isn't everyone's cup of tea.

This is a vastly different track to LaCantera which was used between 1995 and 2009 so past Texas Open form isn't as useful as we'd have liked.

Afternoon all,

After the final round flop of '2 gloves' 80 on Sunday it's time to move on to Texas.

Before the prices for this came out yesterday I had my usual list of players drawn up ready to pounce on the bookies for some decent odds, however it soon became clear that there were certain players I just couldn't back at the prices offered. For example, whilst he may well go well, could I back JB at 28s? 

In the end I settled for the following 6 players who I felt hadc some value in their initial price.

Tringale - Like the everyone else I thought he was a standout pick for this week based on his stats for the course, current form & performance last couple of yrs & I was very happy with 66s yesterday.

Rollins - Again got 66s yesterday, which I thought was a good price for a proven winnner & texas resident in this field. No great course form but has had decent finishes over the recent months & feel another win is around the corner.

Stroud - Got 80s yesterday which again I thought was fair for an in form Texan resident who has been knocking on the door. Again his course form isn't good but I learned my lesson on that one earlier in the year when I was put of backing Wagner for the Sony based on his past string of M/C in the event.

The Hoff - No rocket science here and just felt that taking his track record in Texas including in this event that at 33s he represented better value than JB.

English - No real explanation here needed, will win soon and at 50s I felt represented decent value for a class act in a weak field.

Moore - This guy has started becoming expensive for me over the past year as I am convinced he'll win again soon & then push on. He's never played here before but a tough 'US Ope style' course which requires a good T to green game should suit. I'm happy to write of his awful last round at Houston down to the diassapointment of knowing the win he needed to make Masters had gone & hopefully with that pressure gone he'll step up. I took the 40s for top 6 with Jennings.

Good luck for the week everyone

This course, designed by Greg Norman and Pete Dye with Sergio as a consultant, has only been used for the last two years. It is a tough test it would seem, but few of the elite have played it.
In 2010, it followed The Players Championship. Scott, Els, Garcia and VJ teed it up, Scott winning at 25/1, Els 3rd, the 12/1 jolly.
In 2011, it followed The Masters. Of the "top dogs", only Scott turned up to defend his title. He was 12/1 Fav and finished 23rd.
So here we are with another poor turnout this year. Kuchar, 15th, Choi 26th and Jacobson, 47th are the only 3 of the World Top 50 in the field.

When I first looked at the betting, I thought - probably like 9 out of 10 golf punters - Kuchar? 12/1? No thanks. But the more I look at the opposition, the more acceptable 12/1 seems. Choi is having a poor season and we may have seen the best of him. (has he had back problems?) Jacobson has two good finishes here to his credit, but is 17 over par for 24 rounds this year. Compare this to Kuchar, 46 under for 28 rounds. Na is improving, but still has a question mark as to temperament. English and Cauley are young improvers but Kuch is a the class act. Only one victory I grant you, but 22 top tens in 54 strokeplay events since the start of 2010, often against the very best.
Surely he must go close against these.

Thx Sund.

Mark Anderson been playing some nice golf of late. If he's going to win one, then this has to be a great chance, with such a weak field. On @ 310s.

Laid Na.

Waiting on a couple of others.

Big price winner in this probably...just trying to guess who is the problem!.....

got the feel of a big price shocker this event

spread only 40 odd quid to win 5k on any of the 3 players

J.Leonard @ 200
R.Beem    @ 800
P.Sheehan @1000

Have added Chalmers at a shade over 50s and a good spot by deansthemann and also added Rich Beem. He was showing signs of a return to form in the Scicilian Open recently. Worth a small interest at a silly price.

TMM

Love your call on Ryan Palmer.

Added, English, De Jong, Blanks, Barnes, Lovemark and the two bigger bets are Two Gloves and Noh.

Two Gloves played well last week this is a more suited course. Also Noah has a touch of class in a weak field. Both of these seem good value to me.