Mighty Whites 2008 18 Mar 12 11:58 
There is so little between any of the top players it is ridiculous to suggest that it is a 3 horse race.


Possibly the most accurate post of 2012 thus far

10 out of last 11 majors won by debut winners , but i dont think that stat holds up at the masters


2011 C Schwartzel ....debut major
2010 P Mickelson
2009 A. Cabrera
2008 T. Immelman ....debut major
2007 Z. Johnson ....debut major
2006 P. Mickelson
2005 T. Woods
2004 P. Mickelson
2003 M. Weir  ......debut major
2002 T. Woods
2001 T. Woods
2000 V. Singh
1999 J. Olazabal


of course the dominance of phil and tiger is skewing the results, and the debate about this point is more or less the same one that the other guy is making about one of three winnning



the odds at hills must be a god send to him, 8/13 for a stonewall certainty




will be interesting to see if betfair have this market on hear, and what the price settles at

you would have made plenty had you taken 8/13 over the past 20 years

but are tiger and phil the force they were, interesting bet all the same



the best price for me has been for a hole in one at the par 3 comp, the bookies do seem to have cottoned on a bit now, but we shall see what they offer this year

I like Schwartzel, Cabrera and E.Moilinari.

E.Molinari was an absolute steal\for somebody that can play the course and can putt so well. He will go off as my 3rd biggest green @ an average of 480s. The other two are fairly priced.

Jason Day getting his game together nicely as well as Webb. Hoping for a good price for Rose in top European market.

Updated.

J Rose 66/1
G McDowell 66/1
B Haas 100/1
M Laird 125/1
T Immelman 125/1
JM Olazabal 540/1 & 250/1

Happy with my position, will hopefully get at least a trade and a bit of a sweat come the Sunday night

Regarding the chat around the top 3 in betting, you can back Phil/Tiger/Rory combination at 2.71 on Betfair currently.

Certainly seems like a worthwhile saver to me. I wont be backing any of them individually.

Logically Luke Donald's 20s up until this wknd has been an absolute steal. Quite how Rory is so much shorter I really don't understand. I will be steaming into Donald at anything over 14s right up until the off. He has the best short game in the world and is one of the best 5 putters in the world. The talk of Augusta favouring long or short hitters is a fairly mute point. The Masters winner is usually the best putter that week so driving can be negated to a certain extent. It obviously becomes more relevant if it is wet as the longer hitters can take a higher trajectory onto the hard greens. Donald showed in coming 5th last year that he has the game to win at Augusta and I think if he hadnt played that one poor shot at par 3 12th into the water that he would have gone onto tie Schwartel.

I also like Bill Haas and Bubba. Haas has shown that his short game holds up in the biggest of pressure situations, last years Fed Ex and a couple of weeks ago on PGA tour. The win this year (I forget the name) showed fantastic course managment from Haas and his choice to chip around the bunker on the 2nd play - off hole proved to be genius.

While I realise that Bubbas putting MAY not be good enough to win at Masters, anything over 50 must certainly factor that in. His tee to green game is quite possibly the best in the world right now and his power fade ala Phil Mick sets up well to Augusta. He was also in the top 10 last year before firing a 78 closing round. We all know he's capable of a bad round but I think that can be forgiven as i believe if he's good enough to get into contention here then he is certainly good enough to win as I don't see him as the bottling type. Will be monitoring his putting closely this wknd.

Both Haas and Watson have made cut on each of their 2 appearances and have favourable Augusta stroke averages of 72.375 and 72.50. Donald has stroke average of 72.42.

The last 3 first timer Masters champs (so as to remove Phil and Tiger) had previous stroke averages of 72.8 Charl Schwartzel, 72.7 Angel Cabrera and 72.8 Trevor Immelmann.

An interesting factor also is the winners position in field in the previous year. Starting with Schwartzel in 2010 going back to Tiger in 1997 when he hadnt played year before(?) they are as follows

T30, 5, T25, T55, T32, 10, T22, 3, T24, 1, 5, T24, T12, T30, This gives an average finishing position of 19.86.

Scores were,

+3, -9, +4, +21, +5, -3, +2, -5, +2, -16, -4, +3, -3, +6. This gives average finishing score of +1.5.

Going by these stats you could quite reasonably decide that the winner is going to come from the top 42 from last years Masters as they sat on +2.

Started my ante post book on The US Masters back in September,and have taken some very nice prices since then.
Not least Mr. B. Haas @ 170.
I will be taking him continuously @ anything above 100.

Well its worked the last 2 weeks so I will try again.

After backing Mahan @55s Watney @ 60s and Laird @ 180s all week I would love a big performance in the Arnold Palmer and their preices to crash for alittle more trading ;-)

i like dufner each way, any reason why he is not showing in all the bookies lists?

Maggot, I know exactly what you mean.

The Players is the tournament for him.

Interesting stuff 82mountie ... I'm with Luke ... just one niggly point ... it's moot not mute (comes from the law)

Looks like the cats out of the bag on another I have been trying to build a stake in. Sean O'Hair has a very good Masters record and I was taking prices between 350-500 looks like I won't be getting any more.

Picked up some more Adam Scott today at 42-44s in my view has more chance than Donald.

yes heinz,

Got some real value myself

Palmer 350-430
O'hair 350-450
Molinari E. 450-500
Pettersen 590-690
Bubba 90s
Watney 60-55s
Schwartzel 50s

are some of the best

Pettersson won't qualify I'm afraid.

My aim is to have no risk whatsoever when it starts and still be hugely green on all players above 200. Apart from some of the 1000-fellas who probably should be trading @ 10 000.
Might not make it completely but the big swings (backing 800s, laying 500s within minutes)make this market great as always.

Webb Simpson just being out and out disrespected my folks here. 65s is nuts and been trading at 70s-75s in the last few days. No justification whatsoever for Watney, Day and Garcia being 20 odd points shorter, scratching my head on this one. Been taking him above 55s for a while now, I want to get some onto some of the other market leaders but his price keeps calling me.

Fair point RacingCert but last I checked this was a thread for Masters chat rather than utterly pointess pedantic chat.

You have to love this, its shaping up to be the best Masters ever!

The greatest plsyer ever back in form.

The young pretender waiting for his crown

The magician waiting for to reclaim whats his

The defending champ who can putt and chip like God

The past champions who still believe

The young pretenders

The best Masters yet?

Lee Westwood, Steve Stricker and Webb Simpson are the ones I've invested in.

I'm also going to back Martin Kaymer. I know this course probably doesnt suit him but 80 is massive for a player of his calibre.

Come the week of the event itself,the High St bookies will be offering concessions on Wee Rory and Mr Woods........
I must admit I had left Mr Woods out of calculations,after he limped away dispondent,a few short weeks ago.
One of those two will shoulder my hefty wager.
Events tonight should tell us a little more.....