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s palmer picks
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but you don't pick 5 from the field each week and tbf I haven't picked Tiger for over 3 years.If the winner is a single digit jolly you are more interested in places,1/4 odds first 5 helps if decent prices are hitting the frame.Everybody does it differently,some may bet e/w fivers as singles and perm the cross double for 25p.Who knows what works best for the individual.
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i thought he was skint, or near to it
steaking 50 k a year on e/w doubles just seems crazy, what would that mean he was sticking n the singles ??? even if he was john terry it would be silly steaks and he does pick 5 each week, except when he picks 6 and there are always plenty of short ones |
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Steaks ????
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I've got a lot of time for Palmers thoughts on golf betting and he certainly puts a lot more thought and imagination into his picks than his predecessor Jeremy Chapman did.Chapmans tips are basically a study of the bleeding obvious.Reading Palmers betting diary every week in The Racing Post though,you would definitely have to say he needs to have a rethink on his betting strategy in general.It's scattergun to say the least.I just couldn't do it like that.
On the subject of betting strategies,it's just different strokes for different folks.When it comes to regular tour events i try and keep it to 5 each way picks per event,i won't bet anyone bet anyone below 20-1 and i don't trade on any of my selections.Once the bets are placed,i just let them run.For better or worse!A lot of people would be horrifeid with the latter one but like i said,different strokes for different folks. |
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Really enjoy Steve's quirky take on life each Sunday, feel that the more rigid format maybe constrains his poetic licence compared to his previous wanderlust diary - would be good if his week's selections were added to the column to view potential for a weekend draw as not all readers will be aware of his picks. Maybe he hasn't made the most of earlier big price winners, but that day will come.....
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Interesting thoughts. If you were staking 50k a year though - and could afford to do it of course, what sort of return would you be happy with?
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Although I do occassionaly have an extra dabble on here with a view to trade [like I did this week with a couple of 1000 shots] I basically have a very similar approach to Three For It.
I also take on average 5 players a week & let it ride, taking the view that I back myself to pick enough winners/decent e/w's to make a profit over the season. I keep my golf money in seperate account and only take money out if I have a really big win or at the end of season. Last 5yrs I've made a decent 4 fig profit each year. To be honest the biggest challenge is keeping your nerve in that if you go 2 months plus with barely a sniff you can start to panic, however as I take the view that I trust my self to pick enough good winners to make a profit I don't want to blow a chunk of that profit laying off. This week is a perfect case in point. I've had my worst start to the year for several yrs and am currently about 40pts down. I've got Dufner, Duke, Chalmers & Stroud all in the mix of my 5 selections & I could start laying some money on here to cover or back some of the other front runners. However I'll let it ride taking the view that if it's not my week this week then I'm thinking straight enough with my selections at the moment that it will be soon! |
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I do the same, sundog, however I don't back e/w. There can only be one winner, yet I hate getting done on multiple placings.
Can't tell you how many times I've come 2nd after a playoff without laying off, perhaps would've drove many over the edge already but I'm having a fantastic year at the moment. I've had 4/9 winning events this year, winners so far: Hunter Mahan (Accenture Match Play) Justin Rose (WGC Cadillac) Bubba Watson (Masters) Carl Pettersson (Heritage) This week I've got Chalmers, Fowler & Els playing for me. Hopefully another winning week  |
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Well done on season so far Crows Eye.
I guess backing E/W depends on the players price. Similarly to Three For It I rarely if ever back anyone shorter than 33s and often I'll be throwing in a big priced 'rag'where the E/W is a decent win. Perfect case this week is Duke who if he places outright at 175s will be as big a win as Dufner winning. You would never see me backing Luuuke, Phil or Westwood E/W for example though at 14s, 16s etc. In fact I can't remember the last time I backed any of the above or indeed Rory. |
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A decent return so far this week for Palmer with Ramsay@66s and Fraser placed @40s in The Ballantines.Also still has Dufner,Fowler and Tringale running for him with prospects in The States tonight.
On the subject of each way betting on the golf,i'll give my thoughts and why i can't play win only. 1.A BIG ENOUGH BANK(OR WORKING CAPITAL IF YOU WANT TO SOUND LIKE ONE OF THOSE SMART A*RSED FINANCIAL ANALYSTS!)- Golf tournaments generally have fields on average of around 144,depending on type of tournament,daylight hrs at certain times of the year etc.So hitting the bullseye and getting the winner isn't going to happen every week.So if you're betting win only you need funds to sustain any possible lean period which could last a while.I don't have the funds to sustain long dry periods. 2.THE FEEL OF GETTING A RUN FOR YOUR MONEY-The Ballantines this week was the perfect example of it for me.Of my 5 pre tourney picks,going into the last round i only had 2 in with a shout.Ramsay @66s and Wall @70s.When Wiesberger knocked his tee shot onto the tough par3 13th i gave him the tournament in my head mentally.So at that stage i would've been back to bed on the back of a losing tournament.Instead i managed to make a few quid with Ramsay getting 2nd and Wall managing to nick a share of 5th.It also kept me watching the event to the death and maybe what i seen those last few holes will give me some little bits of information for future use. 3.THE POSITIVE EFFECTS OF GETTING A RETURN MORE OFTEN-I hate getting on losing runs and sometimes they can be hard to snap out of.I think if i was going a while without getting any sort of return it would maybe start to affect how i make my selections.Would i start to pick shorter priced players because in essence they are better players who should perform well more often or would i start tilting at windmills and go for players at out of the ball park prices because i was starting to get behind?Some people would have the mindset to just keep chugging along and waiting for their big payday but i know my mindset just doesn't work like that. 4.A BIG PRICE EACH-WAY PLACE CAN PAY THE SAME,IF NOT MORE THAN AN OUTRIGHT WINNER-Let's say Luke Donald wins tonight.If you had put 80 quid on him straight at the start of the event at say 12s,you would make a profit 960 quid.Rollins at 40 quid each-way @100s if he finished top 5 would give you a profit of 960 quid as well.To me it gives you more options playing each way and as i mentioned in a previous point,if someone(say Dufner for example)runs away with it tonight,you still have an interest in the event and the prospect of a payday. That's just my thoughts on it... |
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strange that rpost and palmer are supposed to be all about value and the 1st threads put up on here about the zurich and by many different people were all about the shocking price of duffner, still wont stop the rpost having a full paged splash about whatg a brilliant pick he was if he wins,i,m still hoping to salvage the weekend with els or stricker
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The law of betting averages would dictate it would happen sooner or later, palmer finally pics a winner on the us pga tour.
After 70 advised bets since the start of the yr and now showing a - 144 point loss even after the duffner win, that still is a very very poor return. It does not matter if he is betting 1 pound a point or 500 a point he is still -144 POINTS. He must have very deep pockets!!! I agree with poster, the racing post will have a field day tomorrow with what a brilliant tipster palmer is, but the huge loss, he has advised to his golf betting followers will sadly be missed. |
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cincinatti kid, quick question. Earlier in thread, you said Palmer was -133 points, but in last poost he is -144 points despite picking Grace and Dufner last two weeks? Did you go back further with your analysis to get that figure? (Earlier figure was from Feb onwards I think?)
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what shrewdie has 5 e/w bets a tourny
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Not claiming to be any great shrewdie Bubbagreen but I back 5 players on average e/w each week.
I said in my post on this thread I've been betting on PGA tour this way for 5yrs plus & .it works for me. I believe there are 43 events on PGA tour this yr with 50 player + fields along with Tournament of champions & Tour Championship with under 30. That means if I back 5 players e/w in the 43 events plus say 3 e/w in other two I'm staking 442 points in the season. if I back say a 100-1 winner, a 66-1 winner and a couple of 40-1 winners in the year I'm returning 315.5 points. Throw in another 10 e/w's at an average of 80-1 thats another 210 points and an overall season profit of 15% plus. As I said last 5yrs I've made a good profit each PGA season from above system. I could change it, back one less player each week, back win only etc, but hey it works for me & as they say "if ait ain't broke don't fix it". |
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cheers el guerrouj
i only had stats from the mayakoba which amounted to -133 loss, but golfweek in there post advised me he was -54.5 from the start of the year to the mayakoba, hence before the duffner win he was -187.5 and if you want to include the accenture world match another -15 making -203 points. doing the maths taking the duffner points win from his -203 points roughly leaves u with -144 points loss...p.s. el i stand corrected, he also had a 5th with schwartzel at the honda classic 2 points e.w.at 25/1, so knock another 10 points off and we have MINUS 134 POINTS. |
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its not working for stevie and i don't think i could make it pay backing 5 e/w every tourny, but good luck
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I'd sooner back ten to win only than five each way. Main reasons being the much improved odds taking win only prices and there is no chance of a multiple deadheat which is truly the bane of e/w betting in golf.
It's tougher as far as discipline goes as it can be quite crippling to lose in a playoff two weeks on the run. Even more so for me because I *never* trade unless it hits sub 1.05-1.10 |
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el
my stats are only for us pga tour and do not include the european tour. |
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Rarely bother posting on here but follow palmer and have every wed rp this year. He's 40 pts up on outright recs now. Last year was 400 plus. Think he will go for Rory tomorow.
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Cheers Cincinatti kid. Anyone have his P&L for Euro tour this year? Assuming from Davemidge's post above that he is well ahead on them. I do remember him having quite a few winners on Euro tour in January alright. Weird the way he is so much worse at predicting the US tour, I have found this has been case last few seasons (no concrete stats to back up, just gut feeling) Also get the feeling he has done very poorly in majors recently
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no steve palmer this week in the post, jeremy chapman done both events.
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studying for next week
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Has anyone ever kept records of how Chapman and Palmer do each month/year?
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steves picks from trifleface twitter: F.Mol, A.Hansen, Pa.Lawrie, Siem, Bourdy; Mahan, Simpson, B.Haas, Fowler, Ogilvy
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Thought Palmer was gone off Twitter? What did Chapman tip in the post? At least 2 of the top 5 in the betting in each event I assume
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Mickelson - Mahan - Furyk - Pelt - Holmes
Storm - Paul Lawrie - Coetzee - Kjeldsen - F.Molinari - Colsaerts |
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steve has left twitter but his best mate trifleface has posted his picks today
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1st time poster
29 Apr 12 16:21 Joined: 25 Dec 05 | Topic/replies: 9,130 | Blogger: 1st time poster's blog strange that rpost and palmer are supposed to be all about value and the 1st threads put up on here about the zurich and by many different people were all about the shocking price of duffner, still wont stop the rpost having a full paged splash about whatg a brilliant pick he was if he wins,i,m still hoping to salvage the weekend with els or stricker It wasnt a shocking price..i think people were expecting 100/1 on a guy who tee to green is very good..improving each week and getting closer to a win..he was 40/1 at harbour town..after a terrible start he played quite well...his record at the zurich recently was excellent  |
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I get what you're saying HARRY22 but i think you're exaggerating the point by saying people were expecting 100/1.Personally i would've been looking for 40s before i would've got involved on him.He was in great form,had great course form but to me his problems in finishing off tournaments hadn't been factored into the price.
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Millington saying on Twittter that Steve is on for a 50k facespitter if Webb Simpson wins at quail hollow
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good luck steve
not recovered from the boy blunders blowout at st andrews imo |
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Your a ledge pauld1991. Wasn't gonna have a bet but ended up with both winners. Thanks mate
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the players
j furyk,h mahan,z johnson,m kuchar,j dufner. madeira open p price,a forsyth,b dredge,c lloyd, r santos. pick order, all e/w. |
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i hope he's e/w on the kooch
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Go eat a **** ^
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amazing tipping again this week
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Must say he has a knack for picking them.
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santos
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those e/w bubbles would be promising this week
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