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Golf
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These 791 comments are related to the topic:
A one off -Part 2.
A one off -Part 2.
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Replies: 791
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Jesus Eddie ,what on earth will you do with the extra £120.
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Reyes ,Lucky Sod posted last years thread on a thread titled "Calling frames" further down the forum.If you get chance to read it there is more detail on my basic strategy than in this thread.You just need a lot of spare time.
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jarvis
there is no bigger fan of westwood's golf than me, and my term joke is one of frustration how many chances does lee need to get his feet in the door of that first major infuriating to watch him set up chance and chance and make nothing how many did he miss from inside 4 feet this week in fairness he putts like that even when playing in normal events, just shows how good he is that he won R2D last year and is doing well nearly every week |
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thx frames, off to read it now. time is something i have!
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frames or reyes can you ttt that thread please
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Lucky Sod posted last years thread on a thread titled "Calling frames" further down the forum.
Would love to read it but no search facility here that I can find so no way to locate it. Do you have a link we can follow? Thanks. |
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calling frames thread
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good to see your alive tyne.. i was getting a bit worried no posts from you in open week
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On a cheerier little postscript to a bad one for me, I`ve clawed back about a grand on the Reno-Tahoe nonsense. Still a bad day, but a small moral victory to finish.
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I wasn't really going to get involved in the golf this year as I tend to concentrate on tennis these days but I did have a little bit of a dabble from Friday onwards. There were two absolutely incredible opportunities that got mentioned on this thread but only fleetingly. The first was when the wind picked up on day 2. I'm afraid I got the wrong side of this as I layed Casey at 28 when he completed his round. With barely another shot being played he was 12 and everyone else in the clubhouse had similarly shortened (including of course the winner) and everyone still to play drifted. Anyone who had prior knowledge of the weather must have cleaned up.
The second huge opportunity occurred ten minutes before Oosthuizen teed off in round 3. A fairly robust global market (ie. Betfair) had him at 4.2 4.3 but suddenly a maniac punter appeared with 50k to lay. Not satisfied with laying the 4.3 and 4.4 that was there he/she proceeded to move it upwards about every minute until the last 20k got done at 5.3 just as young Louis smacked one down the middle of the first. You can scratch around all weekend for value, but those two incidences really stood out for me. |
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Firstly , sorry for not being on here for the last part of the round , but I've been on a bad internet connection this week with having to use a proxy server and stuff like that and lost all connection when the leaders were on the 11th and spent the next 45 minutes rebooting , deleting temp internetfiles/caches and all the other usual stuff in order to get online again. Nothing worked so I had to access a leaderboard on my phone and couldn't believe my eyes when I saw that Oosty was 8 shot clear.
That calmed me down and when he was still 8 or 9 clear with only 3 to go I joined the family and friends downtown for dinner. Secondly I would like to thank everyone that has contributed to this thread. Last years thread was the highlight of the year on the forum , but I think I'll leave it to others to pass sentence on this one. Ironically this is one of this year's tournaments I have spent the least time on. I've had Oosty in mind for this one since he played great over a period earlier this year. Imo his game is more suited to this course than any other player out there , Tiger included , if the wind isn't to bad. Had to look hard in order to find the others I backed because I wanted a few more to hope for when I knew I wouldn't be able to spend much time in front of the computer in order to make a book similar to how frames and others do. Last , but not least I would like to thank Louis. Ys he may have got the better of the conditions , but so did lots of other players and he managed to win with a huge margin in the end - Impossible to argue against that. |
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wasnt able to contribute to this thread this yr but have had a good read through this eve - well done eddie and kr - could never have traded like kr not in my nature to be comfortable with -99k red on players that close to a previously unproven winner like oosty - actually i couldnt be -99k red on anyone as my working bank only stretches to 1/10 that figure
  fwiw i made just over 2k on oosty the bulk of which came from a lay of mcilroy and woods b4 they teed off on fri pm. Though its easy to say in hindsight the lay which was well timed was not aggressive enough. Next yr's open is at Royal st Georges (Sandwich) a course i have played and will be playing again prior to the event - I will also go to a practice day or 2 b4 the start - whether this improves my chances of trading more successfully who knows - this weekend every yr is unfortunately not a good one due to personal sporting commitments - that said eddie watched very little and clearly it did him no harm at all  |
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but was he value eddie..
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Eddie the eagle Joined: 01 Feb 04
Replies: 1616 13 Jul 10 21:00 I don't have much to contribute on this thread...heading to Turkey on Thursday morning and will spend 9 days there. Therefore I am not creating any kind of book in The Open this year. At the moment the % is also heavy in backers favour , so this week I will probably only be a backer of something like 5 - 8 runners. Will try to green out during the tournament if they start well and if I can find the time to access internet. The rest, as they say, is history. I'm booking next year's holiday to Turkey as we speak - must be something in the water! My initial view put me in a profitable position after Day 2. Then I layed Oosty in the belief he would come back to them. He didn't - and never looked like it. Rather, he looked like a man at peace with himself and his position in the world throughout. And when his wife and infant daughter joined him on the last green you could see why. If anyone was searching for a reason for Oosty's newly found composure at altitude, perhaps this was it. A losing week for me; a winning week for golf through the emergence of a true champion. Well done to all those that recognised his potential to win this week and profited from it. A compelling thread. Thanks to frames for getting the ball rolling and to all the genuine contributions. Roll on next year - but do remember to take a vacation in the meantime. |
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everything seemed to come together for this 1000 bet or luck
1.over generous odds for st. andrews 2.over generous odds for a proven player 3.player hits form of his life-keeps it going 4 rounds 4.gets the right draw-but others players did and did nothing with it 5.leads by 4/5 strokes after 2nd round meaning punters with huge odds are staying with him. 6.last round his closest rival misses a 7ft birdie putt on 1st green--huge result for oost backers. |
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Well done to all the winners and contributors to this thread.
I managed to get out of a heavy position on Tiger by having also heavily backed Casey (+12k) and Kaymer (+50k) which allowed me to escape without too much damage before the start of the fourth round. I had actually backed Oosty for £500 at 30/1 on Friday morning but sold at 8.4 before Casey took 7 at the 17th, giving me a 1k free margin or so I thought! I really did not believe that he would hold on because of his inexperience at this level and was pretty sure that his lead would be 2 shots or less by the back 9 on Sunday...guess I got this one wrong unlike last year where I had 6 or 7 players by the last 5 holes all winning me +10k and Watson considerably more. I guess the critical moment on Sunday was the first hole and Casey's miserable birdie attempt from 6 ft...none of the chasing pack really had the fear factor that a charging Tiger could induce. I was at St Andrew's on Saturday and I only saw Oosty play the 17th and hit his tee shot to 18...all the shots he played were exemplary and worthy of an Open Champion, caning his drive into the perfect spot on the far right of the fairway on 17 and then chipping a 5 iron the length of the green followed by a calm 2 putt, then a colossal drive to set up an eagle chance on 18. He played better than anyone else despite the break with the weather and is a fully deserving Open champion. |
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Some good posts there to finish off the thread.
Day 4 summary. Brilliant performance by Louis and as already stated Casey`s miss on the first was probably crucial.Unfortunately his brilliant performance was not good the book and it was a very boring day on that front.I was going to post a 12k profit just for TB and his earlier post then declare the real result later but thought better of it. I could of squeezed best part of a grand out of Dustin and Cani but took the chance of one starting well ,as it was none of the top 10 made any move in the first hour or so and it was all over very quickly. After day 1 to get any profit for the week is a very good week for myself.I honestly thought it was a hopeless case and decent loss was inevitable.After BF pilfer their tax on Wedneday I should come out of it with just over 5k ,chuffed with that tbh. Again thanks to all that have contributed. Back subtotal: 62,789.77 Lay subtotal: -55,999.12 Market subtotal: 6,790.65 Commission @ 4.2%: 285.21 Net Market Total: 6,505.44 |
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well done frames, nicely played out
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Eddie...that will probably go down as the best pick of all time..really pleased for you mate.happydays!!!
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nice work frames , wd
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After four days glued to the tv watching links golf I couldn't resist popping down to Rye today [:D], think i'll go over to Sandwich to do some homework soon too
 Well done everyone, a seriously great read all week. |
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I find this thread quite amazing at times. I would actually like to read a list of all the bets placed, but I doubt you'd want to send me it all, and Im not sure I have a week to peruse them
Doubt I would ever have the patience to do all this to be honest - does anyone take into account the PC deductions? Oh and -580. Your way was better |
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Thanks Par.
I don`t mind sending them DML ,it`s not that much when it`s just average odds of all bets/trades. |
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That would be of interest, frames. Its something I need to look at (though in a much smaller way)
donemylot @ msn. com Thanks |
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Sent,I hope.
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Frames I would really appreciate if you could send me as well pokercontrolatlivedotcom You know i am around at the start of most events every Thursday and Im interested in your strategy as its almost the complete opposite of mine. I think I have a more risk free strategy that you have that gets the same results although i was just under a 1k winner on this event. I probably put in more time and research than anyone and full time trade golf and Im certainly the first to know of major developments such as withdrawals and form due to my twitter links and rapport with the players who use it. Thats especially useful when you get weather updates from some of them and their opinions direct to you. I would be very pleased to review strategies and you may just be interested in my computer setup for golf trading and the advantages i have including faster pics.
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Once again the thread a great read from start to finish, and nice to see some fantastic results in the main, with a couple of really big winners, well done and great bottle to stick with your position in the belief that you would have taken a bad price if moving it. My final result fwiw as follows.
Back subtotal: 5,218.04 Lay subtotal: -4,537.64 Market subtotal: 680.40 Commission @ 4.8%: 32.66 Net Market Total: 647.74 All in all,more than happy with that working from a 1k bank throughout, though maybe hoped for a bit more given position on Friday night, but nevermind. This thread certainly helped me keep the winner onside throughout which im not sure i would have done even seeing the quality of golf he played. So congrats to all winners, Louis included who played amazing. |
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Frames tell me if I am being rude, but I noticed you are paying 4.2% commission?
How can you be paying that level based on that level of turnover? |
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Turnover does not mater AD ,you only get points on your wins/losses and as I only play the golf and snooker I am always around the 4.2 mark.
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I am very impressed that Eddie the Eagle and others spotted Oosty as a potential winner given his previous form, did anyone post him as a potential winner before the start? Great call and well done to those that believed in him despite his missed cuts in previous Opens.
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Eddie DID post him as a tip before the tournament, and rightly so, he won nearly as much as Louis himself for his selection.
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Fair enough Frames, I thought the discount rate applied to commission was based purely on turnover and thought it was strange you don't have a greater discount applied
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The sting in the tail...
2010-07-21 12:23 4717726 2010-07-21 12:23 Premium Charge for week commencing 12 Jul 10 - - - (31,401.43)  Don't expect much sympathy but it still leaves a bitter taste in the mouth when I have taken all the risk to win this money. If I do the same bet again this week and lose £110k I will not get my £31k back, and that just can't be right. |
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Painful KR ,takes the shine off it.
Could be wrong here but I thought you had got out of the PC because of the football taking you above the 22/23% already paid ? |
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I got out of the danger zone for a while but I've had a really good 3-4 months so I'm back in it. I'm sure in the long run I will get away from PC but it's really hard to control when that will be, unless I start deliberately losing money!
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31k out of somebody's week's profit - 4.5k a day for doing nothing. Well done Betfair. It's a scandal mate but well done on the win
 And good thread Frames, enjoyable reading  |
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ouch KR. good point about not getting it back. must be galling.
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I think in this episode Eddie won the best part of 400k and Knight Rider chipped in with a 6 figure haul.
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Well, now you've reprised this thread, frames, you're duty bound to stick around for the summer majors and impart some wit and wisdom from your retirement home (The Open 2010 was a losing episode for me, btw).
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