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Golf
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These 791 comments are related to the topic:
A one off -Part 2.
A one off -Part 2.
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Oosty +13K
cASEY +2K Canizares +55K Kaymer +1K Westwood -12k Johnson +2K Stenson +3K |
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FWIW, +£145.33 the field with a few rank outsiders being low four figures. Only looked at it this afternoon and golf's not something I work on. But this thread is making me think I should...
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Oosty has done for me I think
 Green Martin Kaymer £700.15 Robert Karlsson £132.52 Lucas Glover £954.75 Peter Hanson £247.00 Graeme McDowell £215.65 Luke Donald £139.65 Marcel Siem £612.75 Nick Watney £213.75 Alejandro Canizares £80.75 Camillo Villegas £78.38 Red Field £45.00 |
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any advice on how to play my book, i have seen oosty have so many bad sundays im very tempted to lay him big and go for a big win on casey..
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I can`t see Rock turning up in Russia DML.
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Templeton, the others may knock me down here but sometimes liquidity is less than half of this, and you'd be lucky to turn over this sort of money
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Frames, are the two biggest players on here knight rider and rolo? Different gravy on this thread
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swindon,i've given you advice time aftertime aftertime..
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yes i aftertimed laying stricker last night
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week*
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Yep, I'm assuming this isn't the norm.
Am intrigued as to the techniques used (i.e. knowing the players/form and taking a view, having super-quick feeds, being at the course, playing the numbers, having huge wins/losses which lead to a normalised profit over time, etc) but assuming it's not something that's going to be disclosed here. |
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I've tried to look into this but it doesnt work with my mrain! Follwoing par-5s are important I assume with better than 50% chance of a birdie for example. I wonder how the prices have changed pre18th and during the 18th given they should be birdieing it most of the time?
For me, I have to et emotionally involved otherwise I wouldnt do it, and as such, culdnt just play with numbers. i have tried but it would take me years to do it. |
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just a point of view, and knowing whats coming on a course, and an eye for odds verses chances....sometimes i look at certain players and prices and you just know its wrong in running, never doubt it, just trade and usually your right.... get out and then wait for the next misprice....regular golf punters on here are usally way ahead in thinking than the public.... that may only be 10-20 secs ahead but thats all you need
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Well, a very good day for me thanks to my new best friend Louis. Took a view last night that his price was too big and had a fair amount between 4.5 and 4.9. Tbh I think he was far too big throughout R3, and Casey too short, which restricted me to a watching brief. Managed to ditch most of my Tiger position before he was completely out of it, and also opposed Stenson in the teens so that was good.
Current position: +£148k Oosthuizen -£110k Casey -£110k Kaymer -£110k Westwood -£34k Stenson -£10k Canizares -£58k Woods +£170k Barnes +£30k Goosen +£431k DJ Looks a good position although in reality it's only worth about 20 grand at current prices. Not much I can do in terms of laying off, the current 1.97 is far too big and I hate giving away value. Perhaps I can get involved tomorrow but the story so far seems to be "we haven't heard of Oosthuizen, so he won't win" and that will probably continue all the way down to 1.01. If I lose I lose, and I'll still be here next week. GL all  |
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+5500 the filed give or take a few hundred....
money made from laying mcilroy at 4.5 and chopping on the drift, and laying tiger at 7.0 this am, and again chopping on the drift. backed oosty at 7.4 after 3 holes and cut to early....he looke da tadge wobbly and layed off when only parring the first par 5..... will try not to click another button all weekend and tempted to withdraw my 20k golf bank, so i cant go mad..... double dipped toooo many times before and turned a green book red... |
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+5500 the field**
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be careful KR.. i seem to remember you had a similar view towards dustins chances and price
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Can't win 'em all, thecatcher!
I do ok overall though. |
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Two superb rounds of golf by Oosty and Casey today, they hardly made a mistake and if there is no wind tommoz can't see anyone else really getting in to it, their length will give them a few birdies and if no wind not a lot of dangers about on this course.
Oosty +£2391 Casey +£2118 Kaymer +£1921 Field +£1836 Westwood -£2134 Goosen -£1454 Tiger -£10,243 |
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aye i'd be more than happy with half of your lot. i just think oosty's price is probably about right going into open sunday
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wow, k.r, so your going to let the -£110k ride until he reaches a prices where you feel he is too short? and if he does go lower it doesnt matter? lol. Im finding this hard to grasp but it obvious £100k to you is like £100 to me?
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so has anybody lost loads,
or just lots of us mugs lost a little |
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Weather not going to be huge factor tomorrow so someone going to have to win it from Oos rather than him having a "Rory".
0700 14 °C SSW 13 mph gusts to 23 mph Very Good 1000 17 °C SW 14 mph gusts to 24 mph Very Good 1300 18 °C WSW 15 mph Poor 1600 19 °C WSW 14 mph gusts to 26 mph Very Good 1900 18 °C W 8 mph Very Good Would win £868 if Louis can hold on, also have e/w interest (top 7) on Karlsson and Woods but about -£200 on the rest of the contenders. Small beer so not bothering to green out. Should give me some entertainment |
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nobody loses donny, we are all winners [;)]
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Didnt do very well at all today, in particular the two swedes who were both good winners and were matched at single figures went untraded/traded badly. Current and probably final book unless Oosterhuizen blows up big style, but just dont see itunless conditions are like Fri afternoon, around Evs is prob a little big to my untrained eye.
Oosty 500 Casey 500 Kaymer 1400 Westwood 0 Stenson 700 Canizaries 1400 Really just wanted to follow this thread whilst doing similar myself after just reading last year, and congratulations to some potentially excellent results. IMHO 95% of books posted here are real, just by following the numbers u can see that. The TV coverage and liquidity makes this week a good bit easier than most weeks I would guess, hopefully most will be rewarded with a good ending. |
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KR, wp, esp.ly on the Oostie move-in before/during r3
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KR and Eddie have always taken their set backs with good grace, so whilst they don't need any congratulations as they are both clearly long standing huge staking punters it's good to see them getting a lump. Both play the game correctly and work off their own prices rather than wild militant ''he'll choke'' and ''he's useless'' stances.
KR's anaylsis of prices in between rounds is often so accurate I'd speculate he uses some form of software (not that you can't be an excellent judge of price without) Well done to those who have Louis as a big winner, I got caught laying him during the weather break so he's no good for me, although he's no disatser as I've backed him at lesser prices since. |
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Firstly, well done to the folks who are in great position to win a few quid. I never knock anyone who does well or badly for that matter.
Don't take this the wrong way, but I fail to see how listing profit and loss figures constitutes a great read. Maybe I'm missing the finer points. I rarely talk about actual figures myself because I don't see the point of it. |
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I don't like asking this really, and by all means tell me to wind my neck in, but some of you must be playing with banks approaching 7 figues (or more) ? Or do you have 'credit' arrangements?
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cardiff...knight rider and eddie the eagle are the 2 big players...rolo is taking the pi55
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Alun- I doubt anyone has credit arrangements. I`m a relative minnow and i`m working off 45k, the big guys like eddie and kr are obviously working off way more.
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The front nine is playing easier than the back nine so can see Louis and the field being -1 or -2 after 9 (i.e not too many changes). With a 3 or 4 shot lead at halfway I figure he will be down to 1.4-1.5 so then would be the time to close out and enjoy the climax
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ok, i know k.r and frames are big players in the golf because im around here quite often, and have seen their decent input on the forum. Puts things into perspective this thread, how the big boys role, and the different levels of punting. I suppose im just happy frying small fish for the time being, but would love to one day may it pay bigtime.
Not that it will ever happen though, just dont have the bankroll, patience and edge, but I at least enjoy it. Ousty +£500 Casey +£1800 Field who have a chance +£150 Garcia +£5000 (not that he has much chance) |
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i work hard and i play hard plainlazy. thats my style.
i am a 'trader', and i have a forum filter, and i never say sorry even when im wrong, and if anybody has a different opinion from me well then they are just c$NTS. those of us who are real know each other, you will find us at events like the magalliesburg yearly stableford. |
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whats a forum filter ffs
and where can i buy one |
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Blimey it's quite ridiculous how many +Stenson's have suddenly arisen!
Louis +1.1k Casey +2.3k Stenson +4.4k GaGa +2.1k TW +2.4k Fair few others, but let's be honest.... Field -£240.00 |
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Worst round today was 77. That is only +5. Tomorrow is forecast to be less windy. Even if Louis shot this, there is a good chance he would still win!
But Louis won't shoot this, after his 65, 67 and 69, he will win it with a 71. |
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well quite frankly i can not believe it, how can nearly everybody be in a winning position?
as a relatively newby could you tell me how you got into some of those postions? I can only see the winner coming out of oustie and casey, so why would KR let oustie ride when he could lay oustie off and still be a winner? |
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Well only Casey can beat me now, thinking about adjusting my position but at this stage looking to hold as it is. Going down the board in favoritism order:
Oosty +3.9k Casey -1.7k Kaymer +4.7k Westwood +0.2k Stenson +0.2k Canizares +10.6k D Johnson +3.6k Goosen +1.5k 1 day to go, hope everyone gets what they want |
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Good morning again to everyone.
Laid a little on Oosty and a bit more on Casey during yesterdays round so basically things look like this now : Oosty + 370 k Casey + 60 k the field + 21 k |