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Does race profiling work?
Does race profiling work?
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A couple of winners and a decent fc cannot hide the disappointment. Had 2 or 3 others trade at odds on in running which I would have hoped would have held on.
Current position Stakes 478 Profit / Loss ( - 49.09 ) |
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A mixed bag with today's selections with some that appear very speculative but we shall see.
Ffos Las 3.05 -- Nansaroy 3.35 -- Cold Shoulder 4.40 -- Filatore, Lord Fendale Market Rasen 2.45 -- Isle Of Ewe, Dahills Hill, Pretty Reckless 3.15 -- Nayati Good luck |
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Poor day yesterday. Going to continue for this week as I am not available the following week. As an exercise I think it has been useful. I think with a bit of common sense and betting at BSP one could probably make some kind of profit. As it stands Stakes 486 Profit / Loss ( - 57.09 )
Anyway today's selections contain some big prices so it will be interesting to see how they perform. Carlisle 2.30 -- Chasseur De Tete, Beau Saucy, Take A Break, Captain Black 3.00 -- Mahlerdramatic 3.35 -- Blottos 4.05 -- Pokora Du Lye, Call Me 4.40 -- Shanroe Santos, Point The Way 10 selections in all. |
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After yesterday's weak efforts we stand at Stakes 496 Profit / Loss ( - 60.89 ) @ ISP. Today there are quite a few possibilities with 2 races at Taunton proving problematic with regard to the number of selections. Perhaps you can sort them better.
Wetherby 2.00 -- Northandsouth, Instingtive 2.30 -- Hepburn 3.35 -- Dresden 4.40 -- Lunar Flow Taunton 3.10 -- Numbers 2,3,7,8 and 9 3.45 -- Unison 4.15 -- Numbers 1,2,3,5 and 8 4.50 -- Bisoubisou, Western Sunrise Here's hoping for a change in fortune but given the number of selections I have made and the fact that BSP would perform better I feel that there is the basis of a profitable strategy close to hand. Perhaps a closer examination of those selections current form or trainer stats. Anyway in anyone has any clues please get in touch. |
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You could try using the selections as the basis for a permed placepot?
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Well 4 points profit at ISP and 10.44 at BSP makes it a profitable day. Came very close to a great day with a couple of big priced placed selections.
Current position is Stakes 514 Profit / Loss ( - 56.89 ) @ ISP Back tomorrow |
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Early post today as I am out.
Doncaster 2.50 -- Early Retirement Ludlow 3.00 -- Voodoo Doll 3.30 -- Popelys Gull, Kapjazz, Horatio Hornblower 4.40 -- Ashoka, Lakefield, Master Of Finance 5.10 -- Monbeg Theatre, Milord, Allez Jaques So 11 selections with a few that I am sure can be left out. I think that is the key. If I can find a reliable way to remove 40 or so of the selections then I would have something that is reasonably profitable at BSP. That's the next step. If anybody has any easy suggestions then please get in touch. |
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Coming towards the end of the sampling now and after yesterday's poor showing we stand at Stakes 525 Profit / Loss 67.89 @ ISP. Well today is gonna be interesting as there are a lot of runners that may not be qualifiers on price. For my own betting I have tried to guess but results on here will be correctly recorded.
Huntingdon 1.50 -- 1, 3, 6, 9, 10, or 12 ( Max 25/1 ) 2.55 -- 3, 4, 5, 8, or 9 ( Max 23/1 ) 3.30 -- 1, 3, 4, 5, or 7 ( Max 25/1 ) 4.40 -- 5, 6, or 7 ( 2/1 to 25/1 ) Sedgefield 1.40 -- 3 or 6 ( 7/4 to 10/1 ) 2.10 -- Captain Sharpe 3.55 -- 2 or 7 ( 6/4 to 10/1 ) 5.05 -- 3, 4, 5, or 7 ( Max 25/1 ) Sorry about the ifs, ands and buts but at these 2 tracks it seems to apply more than elsewhere so cannot be ignored. Good Luck all |
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Voodoo Doll yesterday.....20-1 SP 2nd.
2 JT FAVS in 1st and 3rd place....... EXACTA 101.10....SFC 74.39 returns. I indicated earlier on thread that if you reduce your "possible" horses down to 2 ONLY, then do COMBINATION EXACTA using FAV (provided not in your 2 "possibles")....then 6 bets......In VOODOO DOLL race ....you had 2 JT FAVS.....so 12 bets. Pretty sure if you checked all your races from thread and had adopted the above "strategy" ONLY , that you would probably be well in profit on thread. Up to you to narrow down selections to just 2 though.......... GL with future bets. |
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Thanks for the advice ironman. As I said the trial comes to an end this weekend and I will then be able to really have a look at past results etc and to try and improve the process. I am reasonably pleased as I am certain that with a bit more work profits are possible. I've been looking at Cheltenham but it looks like you will have to have many selections in each race. I may come on and give it a go. Anyway that's all for the future. Today's selections are
Exeter 2.00 -- Zanstra, RobertsStar 4.15 -- Oce Cool Champs, Walt, Bobo Mac 4.50 -- Yanmare Warwick 3.00 -- Socksy 4.40 -- Capard King, Twojayslad Good luck all |
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Well annoyed about yesterday as did not have time to post a late qualifier as Dawson City was backed in. Thought in the morning it had no chance of coming in from 25/1 to under 10/1 which was the criteria. Anyway leaving that out position is now Stakes 548 Profit / Loss 81.06 at ISP. Also has a couple of decent forecasts as suggested by ironman. Last day of the trial today and adding in the couple of misses as explained and betting at BSP the results would show a small profit so in answer to the question does profiling work the answer is ' possibly '. There is no doubt in my mind that as a basis for beginning the selection process it can greatly reduce the field size to allow closer inspection.
Today's selection Kempton 1.15 -- Monbeg Legend, Take To Heart, The Mighty Don 4.10 -- Idliketheotion, Kayf Blanco, Favorito Bucks, Rothman Chepstow 3.05 -- Pointed And Sharp 3.40 -- Connetable, This Is It, Carnspindle 4.15 -- Savello, Rock On Rocky 4.50 -- Jaunty Thor, Beallandendall,Auenwirbe Newcastle 3.55 -- Joke Dancer Good Luck |
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Well that was a great last day for the test with 4 good winners and a profit of 18.5 @ ISP and 23.23 @ BSP leaving the position as
Stakes -- 574 ISP Profit / Loss ( - 62.56 ) At BSP we are showing a small profit particularly if the " Lost " winners are included. So " does race profiling work " . Well I think with a few tweaks and a closer look at selections that you could probably get a nice return on investment. My thanks to all who commented / took part and after my break I hope to return with an updated version Good Luck all. |
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This was a really interesting thread, kw. Well done!
Hope you come back with your "updated" one.  |
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Hi All. Still working on the improved version of selection but thought in the meantime I would have a go at the Cheltenham hcps. Easy not. The survey is small as only based back to 2012 but have shown profits every year. The 2.50 today provides no evidence that I can see but the 5.30 throws up 4 possibles
Testify, Report To Base, Western Miller and Jameson The latter 2 appear on betting to have no chance but we shall see. Anyway good luck for the best meeting in racing |
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Hi kw.....It is the "best" in race meetings.....BUT the hardest with betting
  As you have selected the 5.30 race, then this particularly hard race to take on. 1. NOVICES H/C 2. GOING...."HEAVY, SOFT IN PLACES"..... As this is the first time in 6 years( probably more) that the race has been run on such GOING! 6 year olds have won 3 times in last 5 years.........however, on such going probably a 6 yo may not win. Last 2 years a 7 yo won in 2017 on GOOD and a 9 yo won on GOOD in 2016. The going may well be difficult for a 9 yo to win ( only 1 in race) There is one 5 yo in race...a MULLINS horse ( French breeding).....so perhaps might run well . Plenty 7 and 8 yods in race, and more likely the winner comes from one of them! Of your 4 selections you have two 7 yods at big odds ( one of them currently outsider in race !). TESTIFY has strong race pattern and is a 7 yo at the lowest of the 2 you have selected. The market might be a good guide to which one runs the best race of the two. I just have had a stab in the dark......and gone for number 13 on the 13th day.......Ibis Du Rheu As it is currently 13th down the market odds.......that made it a selection in naps competition! AS also has P NICHOLLS as trainer...and Sam T-D as jockey....it is a 7 yo that is French Bred and is very lightly raced ( had a damage to leg ), then it appears to be worth a punt in this race. GL with bets. |
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Of course if you have ....triskaidekaphobia.....you ignore my "guess"!
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Looks like a drying wind has come....so HEAVY now SOFT......and that changes the likely winner down to a 6 yo probably!DRATTTTTTTTTTTTTTT
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YUP....6 yo....
Ibis Du Rheu - finished 5th......HEAVY going was needed! |
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Down to 4.3 IR from BFSP 36......DRATTTTTTTTTTTTTTT
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Not unexpected results yesterday but strangely the non hcps performed well with 3 winners so today I put up everything at Cheltenham in the hope that it may help.
1.30 -- Black Op, Next Destination 2.50 -- Max Dynamite, Voix Du Reve 3.30 -- Douvan 4.50 -- Mitchouka, Turning Gold, Padleyourowncanoue, Grand Sancy, Veneer Of Charm 5.30 -- Max price of 25/1 -- possibles 1,3,5,7,10,18 Good luck all Sometimes I wish I traded as quite often there are profits to be taken but I am not prepared to sit at the computer all afternoon.ithink Jameson yesterday would have traded quite short during running. |
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With 23 RUNNERS in 5.30 race....I suggest a max of 33-1 SP to control selections, especially with GOING being unusual for Cheltenham.
GL kw |
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JAMESON did run a very good race ( a 6 yo ).......No idea what odds it was IR ( if you were a member of TIMEFORM then I think they show how low it was IR in WIN market).
It was just behind IBIS DO RHEU ....my guess that HIT the last fence hard and stopped its momentum, giving JAMESON a chance to catch it in the run in.....but IBIS recovered well enough to draw away again from it in run in. You don't have to sit in front of TV all day kw.......You can set LAYS using KEEP choice for IR bets. JAMESON would have been big odds in PLACE market when at 40 SP in WIN market.....and there were 5 PLACES on BF available where you could have made a good profit off a low odds KEEP bet, especially when IBIS hit that last fence HARD!( Chases can be good race types to set LAYS IR etc ). 4 6 yo in that race....and if you backed 2 lowest odds ones ...the winner would be achieved. SAM T-D was on IBIS.....and TOM BELLAMY on JAMESON for Nigel T-D.....I did consider JAMESON as a possible horse with a good chance, but was put off a bit by initial GOING description being HEAVY ( subsequently changed to SOFT HIP before off) and the fact that Sam T-D on my IBIS guess ( a 7 yo) was not riding for father. GL today. |
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4.50 VENEER OF CHARM....50 AT BF SP....wd
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33-1 at SP.............
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A cracking winner which should ensure a profitable Cheltenham. Back tomorrow.
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Hi guys. As anyone following this I normally only look at handicaps but for Cheltenham I am posting in other races. It's a pity that there is not more too and fro of ideas. There used to be back in the day. Perhaps there are other forums that are better now. Anyway after yesterday's massive winner I hope these may be of some help.
1.30 --- Kemboy is the only one at the moment as there are quite specific price requirements but if Shattered Love or Benatar prove to be NOT priced between 5/1 and 14/1 they will be selections and obviously if Kemboy falls in that category it becomes a non bet. 2.10 -- The Mighty Don 2.50 -- Max 25/1 -- Balko Des Flos, Cloudy Dream, Douvan or Un De Sceaux look to have this covered 3.30 -- Looks between Bacardys, Sam Spinner or The New One. Maximum odds 14/1 so The New One may not qualify. 4.10 -- very tough but with likely prices we can cover a few. Last Goodbye, The Storyteller, Old Grangewood, Kings Odyssey, Ballybolley and Viconte Du Noyer are my 6 against the field. Good luck all and always remember it's about ROI. There is no point in backing 100 even money shots and having 49 winners. That a complete waste of effort. However if you can reduce the number of bets to 95 without losing any winners then you will become a very rich man. In essence that's all I try to do. |
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You are not saying what method you use to arrive at selections......naturally you want to keep this a "secret". Quite rightly.
Probably this is why you are not getting much "feedback"......... Raspberry - has posted that he / she is not blowing raspberries at you ....he is enjoying the thread. Probably quite a few reading the thread and enjoying it......as long as you are benefiting from systematically doing the thread, then that is all that matters. |
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According to new forum.......over 4000 VIEWS of your thread........they are watching your thread.
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Can't believe just how much HYPE re SAM SPINNER!!!!!!
PENHILL interesting |
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GUITAR PETE interesting in 4.10
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and KING'S ODESSEY
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FAV wins...wd kw
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Another decent day. 3 good winners. All in all a very profitable Cheltenham so far. Hope some of you were on Back for the last day tomorrow
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Morning all. Lots of possibles today unfortunately. Hopefully a profit despite the numbers of selections.
1.30 -- Apples Shakira, Farclas, Mr Adjudicator. I also include Sayo at a big price 2.10 -- 3, 5, 7, 8, 13, 19, or 22 2.50 -- 1, 4, 10, 11, 18 or 19 3.30 -- 7, 8, 9, 14, or 18 4.10 -- 3, 23, 19, 9 or 17 4.50 -- Sire Du Berlais or Flawless Escape 5.30 -- no selections So lots of selections but hopefully a few big priced winners to compensate. We shall see. |
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1.30 Farclass/Gumball/Saldier/ and SFC APPLES SHARIRA TO BEAT ONE ON THE E TO LEFT!
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WD ON 1.30 kw
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Well that was pretty impressive. 1st 4 home.
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2.10 ...
16/19/8/5/7/3/15 |
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Your 1.30 4 selections would have achieved a TRICAST
Tricast:£2,243.87 |
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GL with other races kw.
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