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Does race profiling work?
Does race profiling work?
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Hopefully can get back on track after yesterday's poor attempt though there is nothing exciting about today's selections.
Towcester 4.00 -- Heurtevant Wincanton 1.50 -- Persian Delight, 3.00 -- Captain Cattistock 3.35 -- Vic De Touzaine, Le Boizelo So just the 5 selections. Good luck |
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A loss of 3.27 @ ISP so not a good day. Thought we were gonna have a good winner at Towcester but caught by the rag of the field. Frustrating.
Running totals now Stakes 335 Profit / Loss ( - 13.23 ) Back tomorrow |
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A few selections today in races where there is an odds on Fav included. Not all the short ones win so although it is tempting to leave some selections out the right course is to still back them all and if the Fav wins then take the loss on the chin.
Catterick 2.55 -- Kansas City Chief, Planet Nine, Dark Sunset 3.30 -- Same Circus 4.05 -- Iskabeg Lane, Tommy The Rascal 4.35 -- Derrynane, Perseid, Flying Verse Chepstow 2.45 -- Modeligo 3.20 -- Qiiz Master 3.55 -- All Kings That's 12 selections in all. Good Luck |
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Another loss of 2.62. This week has seen a steady drip feed of losses and once again I must doubt the ability to make a profit though at BSP the figures are still positive. Also I would advise that 2 of the selections this morning ultimately drifted in the market to such an extent that they became non selections. I still include them in my figures though. I guess this will happen sometimes as I am trying to put things up early so I can't be accused of after timing. Any way current standings are
Stakes 347 Profit / Loss ( - 15.85 ) at ISP Back tomorrow. |
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Morning all. Unfortunately I have to go out early so I have had to make a few assumptions on today's selections about likely SP's, number of runners etc.
Sandown 1.15 -- Big Jim 3.35 -- Sametegal 4.10 -- Kapcorse Wetherby 1.35 -- Knockgratton, Mercian Prince Musselborough 2.05 -- Sir Chauvelin 2.45 -- Marracudja, Solar Impulse 3.45 -- Kalaniti So 9 selections in all. Those are definite qualifiers. There could be another 1 or 2 if there are changes but I will be back to mono tor those and will post again if there are any additions. Good luck for the day whatever you back. |
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Adding Hold Back The River to the 4.10 Sandown. Sorry it's late
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Hit the bar again with the late selection. Finished up with a loss of 2.62 so running totals are now
Stakes 357 Profit / Loss ( - 18.47 ) |
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Well we go again today with lots of handicaps on the cards.
Musselborough 3.10 -- Jump For Dough 3.45 -- Ready Token, Gorsky Island, By The Boardwalk Taunton 1.40 -- Groundunderrepair, Quinto, It's Obvious, Camron De Chaillac 2.15 -- Ruby ****, Born To Size 2.50 -- Friday Night Light 3.25 -- Prince Malone, Vice Et Vertu, Royalraise 4.00 -- Minellatillmorning 4.30 -- Flanagans Field So 16 selections. There is a slight possibilities of a change or two but I will be on to update if that happens. By the way I do back all these selections At BSP to keep it real. Good Luck All. |
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Poor again today with only the one winner. Sets me back to where I was a couple of weeks ago at ISP.
Current position Stakes 373 Profit / Loss ( - 29.47 ) at ISP Must admit to feeling less confidant about the outcome of this investigation. Back tomorrow |
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Not to many selections today. They do include what look like a couple of no hopers. I really feel as though I can leave some of these out but I've never really been a form student. More like a maths man. Anybody out there who can narrow these down further?
Newcastle 3.20 -- Sky Full Of Stars Southwell 2.30 -- Myroundorurs, Frontline 4.05 -- Corlay, Supakalanistic, Lex Talionis 4.35 -- Miss Fleming, Tara Well, Bonnie Black Rose 9 selections. Hoping for a change of luck. Good Luck All |
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So only 1 winner at 13/2 gives us a 1.5 loss at ISP. BSP was 9.18 so a small profit
Current position Stakes 382 Profit / Loss 30.97 @ ISP |
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Hopefully I am due a turn in fortunes.
Sedgefield 1.40 -- Fiddlers Flight 2.10 -- Sleep In First, Black Kettle 3.15 -- Cash Again 4.20 -- Turtle Cask, Broadway Belle Market Rasen 2.20 -- Flemerina, Appletree Lane 3.25 -- Craggaknock, Future Society 10 selections in all. Good Luck All. |
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Stuffed again. Pity Sedgefield was off. Anyway current standings
Stakes 386 Profit / Loss ( - 34.97 ) Will keep this going till end of February and then make a decision as that would seem to have been a real trial |
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Back into action after yesterday's abandonments with what appear to be runners with chances. We'll see.
Doncaster 4.40 -- Hartside, Teescomponents Max Huntingdon 2.50 -- Red Indian, Wilde Blue Yonder 3.20 -- Bally Gilbert Towcester 4.00 -- Bonds Conquest 4.35 -- Gonnabegood 7 selections in all. Good Luck |
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A couple of winners and a non runner gives a profit of 2.50
Current figures Stakes 392 Profit / Loss ( - 32.47 ) Unfortunately missed a couple of winners due to late market changes but I guess that's the way the cookie crumbles unless you want to sit in front of the computer all day. Back tomorrow |
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Strange day today with several selections in the same race. I will leave you to narrow them down but I will include all in my figures
Bangor 2.10 -- Catching On, Astigos 3.50 -- Walsingham Grange, Giorvina Kempton 1.20 -- The Brothers, No Hiding Place 3.00 -- Smart Boy, Broken Quest, Fly Du Charmil, Cornish Warrior 3.30 -- all except numbers 5 and 6 So 15 selections. Good Luck |
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kw.....Don't really see point in 3.00 race having the top 4 in market.
As no idea how you are arriving at selections, then hard to give any "advice" on what you are doing....other than YOU must try to cut down number of selections per race. If the 4 in 3.00 race was a TRICAST or TRIFECTA combination bet.....then that would be a "reason" to have 4. As a lot of RAIN expected in South East, then going might be HEAVY by off time. This makes it hard to make a choice NOW......perhaps market is based on HEAVY going??? Would not be surprised if none of 4 wins......IF going HEAVY......FAVOURITE may well win by the off time..... GL with bets. |
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Trainer for SEARCHING has 3 runners today.....so perhaps SEARCHING might be in with a chance today, as lightly raced...and going and distance MIGHT ssuit if near HEAVY going today by off time.
GL |
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Thanks for the comments ironman. I am listing all the qualifiers under the original premise whilst in the background I am trying to find a way to reduce the number of selections. 3.00 race actually showed a profit. 3.30 race with 5 selections was the one that really needed sorting.
Anyway today gives a small loss of 0.50 @ ISP and a 1.47 profit @ BSP Current totals Stakes 407 Profit / Loss ( - 32.97 ) |
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Ironman
Re 3.00 race one of the profitable criteria is a price of 2/1 to 10/1 so if I had been playing live rather than early then strictly speaking Fly Du Charmil would not have been a selection. |
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Thanks for reply kw.
Even more confused though.....as you say 1 of your criteria for selection is the price has to be 2-1 SP to 10-1 SP......" so if I had been playing live rather than early then strictly speaking Fly Du Charmil would not have been a selection". As the above horse was 7-1 SP, did that not make it a "qualifying" selection? I suspect you will say that there were "other factors" that did not make it a "qualifying selection".......This would be fair enough.....BUT makes it very hard to give ANY "advice" / "ideas" on what you are doing! |
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Ironman. Sorry about that. Misread the SP of Fly somehow so would have been selection. With regard to "how" all I am using is the various sorts available on Arian Massey site reviewing all the runners and then using the filters. For example say there have been 150 runners with a weight between 10:8 and 11: 3 with only 5 winners with a return of 40% ROI then I will remove them from calculations. I gradually whittle down the field and what is left are the possibles. It is at this point that I need a further look. Anyway hope that explains a bit. Today's are
Uttoxeter 1.20 -- Lerichi Belle ( if Fav or JF ) 2.30 -- Greyed A, Mr Love, Pine Warbler, Ceann Sibheal -- Max 25/1 3.05 -- Spectator ( if Fav or JF ) 4.45 -- Jaunty Thor Newbury 1.50 -- Talkischeap, Theeaglehaslanded ( only if 1st 5 in betting as described by Adrian ) 4.10 -- Duke Des Champs, Reigning Supreme ( 1st 4 in betting ) Warwick 4.50 -- Vado Forte, The Dubai Way, Not Never ( 1st 5 in betting ) I have added the actual criteria that may effect the selections for info. I have backed them all anyway but maybe some will become non selections at the off but I am trying to find something where I can place bets and then get on with life. I will include all selections in my results. Have been thinking of taking my selections and then looking at some sort of trainer form stats or weight when compared to last win or something. |
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On trying to narrow things further I just had a quick look at Lerichi Belle. The trainer has had 6 Favs run at the track since 2012 with 3 winners. This can be improved on all winners were 2/1 to 11/4 and again as 3 of 4 were winners last time out. Is it relevant. I don't know.
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Btn Horse Name TFR Tfig Jockey Age Wgt ISP BSP Hi/Lo
Pedigree Trainer (Equip) (OR) (Place) 1 Ryan Winks silk 7. MODULUS < premium content > premium content Ryan Winks (7) 8 10-11 9/2 BSP Peter Winks (v) (90) 2 Andrew Glassonbury silk 12 4. AIRPUR DESBOIS (FR) < premium content > premium content Andrew Glassonbury 7 11-3 8/1 BSP Oliver Greenall (s+t) (96) 3 Thomas Dowson silk 1¾ 9. MAN IN BLACK (FR) < premium content > premium content Thomas Dowson (5) 8 10-5 8/1 BSP Philip Kirby (s) (84) 4 Jamie Bargary silk 19 3. SWORD OF THE LORD < premium content > premium content Jamie Bargary (3) 7 11-11 9/2 BSP ======================================================================= As going is described as HEAVY, and from TIMEFORM the previous race WINNER and other 3 home can be obtained by clicking on FORM & RESULTS on the 1.20 pm race.......then perhaps that might be more relevant information to consider. It is a NOVICE H/C HURDLE race, so the market probably gets the winner in top 3 in market. PREVIOUS RACE WINNERS is a useful source of information on races...... GL with bets. |
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There are at least 40 FACTORS in weighing up ( RATING and SELECTING) a race.
This is just my opinion, so if you are "profiling" just based on say under 10 FACTORS.....IMO you need to bring in more FACTORS to end up with the horse or horses that may well finish in top 3/4 of a race. GOING clearly is the FACTOR that VARIES in UK , therefor you have to be aware of changes in GOING that can effect outcomes. It is good that you are using ODDS and other filters to try to narrow down selections. GL with the process. |
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Re 1.20. The quick look this morning indicated that 3 out of 6 of his previous Fav runners were winners lot. So is there an argument that this should have been a non selection as it did not win. Then 1.50 provided a conundrum. Winner selected was 5th best while other selection was 6th. Fine except that just before the off the positions in the betting were the other way round. When should the bet be placed?? Still a good start.
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A better day today with 3 winners and a profit of 11 points @ ISP and 16.29 points @ BSP
Also a couple would have been non qualifiers but I have not omitted them from my figures. Current position Stakes 420 Profit / Loss ( - 21.97 ) @ ISP |
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The Eaglehaslanded
D 1 tip 428 11/86- 8 tb 11 5 138 J: Sam Twiston-Davies T: Paul Nicholls 52 ====================================== Talkischeap 1 tip 71 33-114 6 11 0 133 J: Wayne Hutchinson T: Alan King 53 ========================================================= Sorry for above mess!!!!! Where closely matched in odds......you have to use other FACTORS to separate them so you end up backing the "right" one according to all the FACTORS. The GOING would be one way to do so.....as was teeming RAIN at Newbury and must have been nearer HEAVY going and not SOFT! Really all the FACTORS should be used to separate them........... WD today..... |
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Well done today kw.
And enjoying the thread.  |
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Well not a lot going on today. Only a few qualifiers.
Ayr 5.00 -- Bertalus Exeter 3.35 -- Dadsintrouble, Present Times These are selected using the original criteria and are what I have backed. However with so few runners I have made an attempt to look deeper and with a strong head on would only perhaps back Present Times. Trained by Evan Williams who has a 10 wins from 34 runner strike rate. The winners are usually in the 1st 4 in the betting and who has a return on investment of 176%. We shall see. Good Luck to all. Any suggestions gratefully recieved. |
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No good today although I suppose I could have saved 2 points
Current standings Stakes 423 Profit / Loss ( - 24.97 ) Back tomorrow |
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Morning all. A mixed selection today with hopefully some profit.
Catterick 2.35 -- The Dawn Man 3.35 -- Monfass, Bonne Question, Gran Maestro 5.05 -- Earthmoves Plumpton 3.20 -- Graasten, Ding Ding 3.50 -- Two Hoots, Sir Hubert 4.20 -- Sartorial Elegance, Sandhurst Lad, Achille 4.50 -- Third Act, Kalarinks So 14 selections in all. Hopefully you can sort them further |
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A couple of winners so no real damage done and in fact a small profit at BSP. There were at least a couple that could have probably safely been left out. Current standing
Stakes 437 Profit / Loss ( - 26.97 ) |
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Morning all. A bit of a messy day today with a few that I can't see winning which I am gonna chance omitting. I will not include in figures but will display in brackets for info purposes.
Musselburgh 2.00 -- ( Nelly La Rue ) 3.30 -- Petapenko, Our Lucas, Sleep in First -- omit if it is 5th best or JT 5th best 4.30 -- Royal Mandate Towcester 2.10 -- Goodnight Charlie, Cafe Au Lait 2.40 -- Ceann Sibheal, ( Over My Head ) 4.10 -- Lickpenny Larry, ( Canyouhearmenow ) not if 4th or JF Fav So 8 selections though a couple may turn out to br no bets. Sorry it's messy but that's the way it is. I have backed all at BSP and will trade out if they are non selections. I hope none of the big priced ones oblige but I just can't see them winning. I'm not normally put off by price. Good Luck |
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Came close in a couple of races but at the end of the day nil returns
Current position Stakes 445 Profit / Loss ( - 34.97 ) Hopefully racing will beat the weather tomorrow . |
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Today's selections
Leicester 1.40 -- Skipping On 2.15 -- Heavenly Promise 3.55 -- Two Smokin Barrels Fontwell 4.20 -- Shocking Times, Kingston ( prices between 2/1 and 14/1 ) Kelso 3.35 -- Planet Nine, Outnumbered ( NOT Fav -- prices 3/1 to 14/1 ) Good Luck All |
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A change of luck needed after yesterday. Today's selections
Sandown 1.20 -- Gassin Golf, Chieftains Choice, Vicenzo Mio ( not Fav Max 14/1 ) 1.50 -- Tara Bridge, Un Beau Roman ( Max 14/1 ) 4.05 -- Aubusson, Step Back, Tanit River ( Max 14/1 ) Fakenham 1.40 -- Beyah 3.20 -- Pronceton Royale, Cody Wyoming, Cusheen Bridge, Flaming Charmer ( 2/1 to 25/1 ) Running totals after yesterday Stakes 449 Profit / Loss ( - 38.97 ) |
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Well that was annoying with Tanit River returning an SP of 16/1. Outside the max of 14/1 advised. This highlights the problem of advising on prices. I placed bets this morning at BSP as the price was within the criteria. I will not include in the figures as I had posted a maximum price but I will deduct from the 1.20 race as a selection was over the limit there. Hope everyone thinks that's fair.
Current standings then Stakes 460 Returns today 7.88 Profit / Loss ( - 42.09 ) A bit of a pity but that's the way the cookie crumbles. Hope some of you backed the Tricasts though. |
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EX:£150.70
Trifecta:£636.90 SF:£126.24 Tricast:£403.61 ============================================================= NO.....too busy doing stats on other races! When you have say 3 selections.....then COMBINATION SFC bet type is useful ( 6 bets) Also taking the 3 plus the FAV ( if not in the 3....) and COMBINATION TRIFECTA ( 24 bets) worth considering..... GL kw. |
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A few selections for today which will hopefully provide a profit one way or the other.
Ascot 2.25 -- Another Venture, Minella Daddy 4.10 -- Malapie, Mon Palois, Pop Rockstar, Laugharne Haydock 3.50 -- Black Ivory, Tommy Rapper, Theo's Charm Wincanton 1.40 -- Timeforben, Goodgirltereda, The Flame, Stolberg, Jully Les Buxy 3.20 -- Dance Floor King, Gardiners Hill, General Girling 3.55 -- Fortunate George 18 selections in all. Good luck everyone |