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Does race profiling work?
Does race profiling work?
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Quite a few options today so we shall see.
Warwick 12.40 -- All Is Good, Equus Millar, Shroughmore Lass 1.15 -- Azzuri, Big Jim, Vivaccio 2.25 --- The Organist 3.35 -- Sir Mangan Kempton 1.30 -- Bishops Court, Mercian Prince, The Tailgater, Rothman 2.40 -- River Frost 3.15 -- Fountains, The Young Master, on Tour, Ballykan 3.45 -- Charming Zen Wetherby 2.15 -- Just Cameron 2.50 -- Zaidiyn, Craggaknock 3.25 -- Special Wells So 22 selections today. A big risk but we shall see |
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Well that was truly disastrous.
Stakes 157 Loss 32.63 Will take a real turnaround to convince me that this can work. |
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Have to go out tomorrow but there are no selections at Kelso
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Just feel that you need to reduce number of selections on some races.
For example.....3.15 Kempton yesterday. You have 4 horses mentioned in an 6 runner race! Perhaps if you use the SP odds to help you reduce your selections this might be a big plus for you? FOUNTAINS WINDFALL ...1ST AT 10-11 FAV - The market is indicating this has the strongest chance to win this race. The SP odds for other 3 horses mentioned were :- THE YOUNG MASTER 8-1 SP ON TOUR......... 9-1 SP BALLYKAN.........5-1 SP Clearly BALLYKAN being the lowest odds one of the 3 was possibly a good selection for say backing to win....or being 2nd to fav. Not checked all your other races above, but pretty sure using SP ODDS as a guide to filtering down number horses mentioned in some races would be a reasonable way to go forward . You could have had a number of SFCS since you started thread..........so don't get too discourage, as you often are attracted to horses that finish in top 2 places.... GL with selections. |
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Thanks for advice. Last week was poor but I've made up my mind to continue to try to prove the argument one way or the other. Some signs have been encouraging but as Ironman said earlier excluding on price can be dangerous. All the research says over every year since 2012 an ROI of around 200% is possible. At the moment that seems some way off but perhaps this week will bring an improvement.
Ayr 1.45 -- Raised on Grazeon, Presenting Rose, Berkshire Downs, Miss Tiggy, Northern Girl ( was not sure whether to include because of number of selections but decided that as they all qualify then they should. If one wins at 10's then it's justified ) 2.15 -- Aengus, Transient Bat, Trongate 2.50 -- Strong Economy, Hills Of Dubai, Buffalo Ballet 3.25 -- Sky Full Of Stars, McGintys Dream Plumpton 2.00 -- Brother Bennett, Norphin 2.30 -- Clondaw Bisto, Sandhurst Lad, Miss **** 3.05 -- Frank N Fair 4.10 -- Astrum, Austin Friars For info I live in the South of England and it has been raining heavily For the last 3/4 hours. And has just stopped. Plumpton therefore is likely to be particularly heavy and testing.. |
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Well another poor day. This is becoming monotonous. Had a couple of long priced selections yesterday that traded well odds on in running but didn't get home. Frustrating.
Current state of play Stakes 170 Profit / Loss ( - 41.43 ) No Ayr today so Hereford it is 2.00 -- The Kings writ, Is love alive, Heavenly Promise, Clondaw Rigg 2.30 -- Steel Express, Colt Lightning 3.05 -- Away For Slates, Gassin Golf 3.40 -- Everyday Everyhour, Ckalco Des Loges Good luck everyone |
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That's a bit better with a couple of decent winners. Running Totals now
Stakes 180 Profit / Loss ( - 34.93 ) Back tomorrow |
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After an improved performance yesterday I hope that the success can continue today
Market Rasen 1.00 -- its Obvious, Roberts Star, itsnonoforbusiness 3.10 -- Kincora Fort 3.45 -- Moorstown Newbury 1.20 -- Doitforthevillage, Ambre Des Marais, Lex Talionis, Duhallow Lad 3.00 -- Two Smokin Barrels, Indy Five, Horatio Hornblower So 12 selections. Good luck all. |
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Well done!
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Now that's more like it. A non runner and two good winners. Even better at BSP. Anyway position now stands at
Stakes --- 191 Profit/Loss --- ( - 20.93 ) Prices all at ISP Probably perhaps even back in profit at BSP Back tomorrow |
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After yesterdays improvement I feel slightly more optimistic especially as at BSP the case for a positive answer to the questions looks somewhat better. It's certainly thrown up winners that I would not have ordinarily backed. Anyway on to today
Wincanton 1.40 -- Maguires Glen 2.10 -- Wuff, Themanfrom Minella Ludlow 2.00 -- Aubusson, Sego Success 3.45 -- Crucial Role, Capote, Vinegar Hill, Three Star General Good luck everyone |
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A couple of winners today 9/2 and 5/1 at ISP but 6.2 and 7.23 at BSP. Still a 2.5 point profit today. So the current standing at ISP is
Stakes 200. Profit / Loss ( - 18.43 ) Back tomorrow |
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Today's selections contain one or two that look entirely unlikely, but we shall see.
Musselborough 12.40 -- Alizee De Janeiro, Spectator, Haulani 1.15 -- Court Painter, Dutch Canyon 2.20 -- Traditional Dancer, Meadowcroft Boy 2.55 -- Tomorrow Legend, Boys on Tour, Rndeavor 3.30 -- Jump For Dough, Waltz Darling Chepstow 2.45 -- Naranja So 13 selections. Good luck all |
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Three small winners so not a lot of damage done. Actually a little unlucky as Boys On Tour traded long odds before getting beat on the line. Still position now stands at
Stakes -- 213 Profit / Loss ( - 21.10 ) Back tomorrow |
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A mixed bag of qualifiers today. Primarily though fancied runners for a change.
Ascot 1.15 -- Chef D'Equipe, Flaming Charmer 3.00 -- Guitar Pete, Kilcrea Vale,Minella Daddy Haydock 12.55 -- Joke Dancer,Chozen, Le Frank 3.15 -- Tintern Theatre, Walk In The Mill 3.45 -- Lakefield 4.15 -- Tantarpino Taunton 2.50 -- Geordie Des Champs 3.55 -- Space Oddity, Kauto Riko So 15 selections. Hopefully a few winners. Good luck all. |
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Another small loss today of 2.25 at ISP. A few disappointing runs amongst them I feel . Totals are now
Stakes 228. --- Profit / Loss ( - 23.35 ) |
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Quiet day today
Fontwell 1.40 -- Bramble Brook, Darebin 3.40 -- Keel Haul, Atlantic Roller Good luck everyone |
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Well a short priced winner results in a 1.5 point loss. Position currently stands at Stakes 232 Profit / Loss ( - 24.85 )
Today throws up a couple of storage selections in the 1.25 which I can't see winning but which I must include for consistency. Perhaps I need a " sensible head " filter. Fakenham 1.25 Dizzy Heights, Busy Baro 2.25 Holly Bush Henry, Morney Wing 3.25 Wood Pigeon Good luck all |
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A couple of winners and a small forecast. Running totals now Stakes 237 Profit/ Loss ( - 23.10 )
BSP just under another point better. Interestingly in the 1.25 there was trading possibilities on both one being available early sorts at 60/1 or so. I don't trade as I just want to place bets and then get on with other things. But perhaps there is something there. Back tomorrow |
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Today's selections
Wetherby 1.45 -- Jacarno, Bandol 2.20 -- Bassarabad,Dick Darsie 3.30 -- Catamaran Du Seuil Leicester 3.15 -- Shinooki 4.20 -- Shroughmore Lass Good luck |
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Hi all. One addition to today's selections has come into play.
3.50 Leicester -- Sneaking Budge So that's 8 selections in all |
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Well broke level today with a small BSP profit.
Totals now Stakes 245 Profit / Loss ( - 23.00 ). Back tomorrow |
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A mixed bag today which will hopefully show a profit.
Catterick 1.55 -- Pinch of Ginger, So Satisfied, Smugglers Stash, Spirit Of Hale, Major Ridge 2.30 -- Sakhees City 3.00 -- Cracking Find 4.05 -- Bering Upson, Aza Run, Notebook, Hey Bob So 11 selections across 4 races which hopefully someone can reduce still further. Good Luck All |
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Well a couple of Non Runners and two 11/2 winners shows a profit of 4 points at ISP and 5.56 at BS P
Latest Totals Stakes 254 Profit / Loss ( - 19.00 ) @ ISP Back tomorrow |
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Well a very quiet day today with only one qualifier
Kelso 1.15 -- Landecker Hopefully a winner. Good luck |
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4 Points profit at ISP and 4.91 at BSP. Running Totals
Stakes 255 Profit / Loss ( - 15.00 ) |
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From famine to feast with the number of selections today. I will leave you lot to sort the wheat from the chaff but I will be recording them all as bets at ISP
Huntingdon 2.40 -- Pougne Bobbi, Cusheen Bridge 3.50 -- Larry, First Assignment, Natter Jack Croak, Potters Hedger Doncaster 12.55 -- Doktor Glaz, Thomas Blossom, Glimpse Of Gold, Dalkadam 3.05 -- Bako De La Saulaie, Shanroe In Milan, Amber Gambler, Baileys Concerto 3.40 -- Fit For Fifty 4.10 -- One of Us So a total of 16 selections with a few Fc / Tricasts thrown in. |
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A small profit today of 1.2 points at ISP and 2.17 at BSP
Current running totals Stakes 271 Profit / Loss ( - 13.80 ). All at ISP which is the toughest challenge. |
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Well today is very strange. I expected plenty of qualifiers but those that do qualify are clumped in the same races. Perhaps you can sort them further on form, gut feeling or whatever. I list them all as singles at SP
Cheltenham 1.50 -- Frodon, Shantou Flyer, Kingd Odyssey, Casse Tete, Coo Star Sivola, Drumlee Sunset 4.10 -- Clondaw Castle Doncaster 3.50 -- Big Martre, Double W's, Duke Of Navan, Movie Legend Uttoxeter 2.20 -- Big Meadow, Ceann Sibheal, Sam Noir 4.00 -- Special Wells Hopefully a profit amongst them but some big prices in there as well. We shall see. Good luck to everyone. |
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Well a winning day can't be bad. Profit 3.50 @ ISP and 6.80 @ BSP
Running Totals now Stakes 286 Pofit / Loss ( - 10.30 ). All at ISP. In profit at BSP Not going too badly. A really good week. With regard to the question " does race profiling work " I guess I am beginning to be persuaded especially if I can sort some of the selections a bit further. Any comments???????? |
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Well done, kw. good results and good thread.
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Gonna be out early tomorrow ( Sunday ) and not back till mid meeting so here are the selections for Sunday
Sedgefield 1.10 -- The New Pharoah 1.40 -- Beau Bay, Prairie Town 3.10 -- Viens Chercher, Tornado In Milan, Discoverie, Cash Again 4.10 -- Princess Mononoke So 8 selections. Good Luck |
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What great results today. Winners at 4/1, 14/1 and 15/8 shows an ISP profit on the day of 14.88 and a BSP profit of 21.47
Running Totals now Stakes 294 Profit / Loss + 4.58 at ISP which is really quite good. BSP profit much more than that. Nearly 300 selections and a profit means I really need to try to fathom this further. Any suggestions gratefully recieved Back tomorrow |
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Morning all. Quite a few selections today. Hopefully the good run continues. Feeling a little more confidant in the process as I would have expected to be perhaps 30 points or more down at this stage. When I worked in the industry they reckoned to get between 15 and 20% out of staked bets gross. Anyway the exercise continues with:
Plumpton 3.25 -- No Buts, Tambura, Clondaw Bisto, Sandhurst Lad 3.55 -- Frank n Fair, Clondaw Rigger 4.25 -- Blue April, Flight To Nowhere Hereford 2.40 -- Snapdragon Fire 3.10 -- Becauseshesaidso, Nansaroy 3.40 -- Houblon Des Obeaux, Good to Know, Another Venture, Regal Flow 15 selections in all. Good luck everyone |
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Had to happen I guess following a brilliant run. Only one small price winner and a loss at ISP of 12.12 points. Running totals at ISP now:
Stakes 309 Profit / Loss ( - 7.54 ) at ISP. Still profitable at BSP. Back tomorrow |
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Hopefully results will be better today. Can't find much to recommend chases at Newcastle and having had another look at results at Plumpton, hurdles races are marginal and I should perhaps have been more cautious yesterday. Anyway it's a learning exercise so lesson learned for the future. Today's selections are:
Lingfield 2.05 -- Northandsouth 2.40 -- Very Live, Kings Cross 3.45 -- Ruby Rambler, Weyburn, Finnegans Garden 4.15 -- Stolberg, Project Mars, Landscape Newcastle 3.05 -- Skipthescales, Tailor Tom 4.05 -- Lord County, Heartasia So 13 selections in all. Good Luck |
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A profit of 5.58 at ISP and 8.45 at BSP for today so the current running totals are
Stakes 312 Profit / Loss ( - 1.96 ) at ISP with good profits at BSP. Interestingly Northandsouth was available at 10/1 + earlier in the day. Perhaps it is worth looking at Bedt Odds Guaranteed prices to see if there is an advantage over even BSP. Anybody any comments |
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Sorry total stakes are 322 not 312. Fat Fingers
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Today's selections
Ayr 3.10 -- Shanroe Street 3.45 -- Road To Gold Leicester 1.45 -- Head To The Stars, Du Soleil 3.25 -- Lord Bryan, Bestwork 3.55 -- Dark Invader, Chandos Belle So 8 selections today. Good Luck |
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Awfull day today. Current totals
Stakes 330 Profit / Loss ( - 9.96 ) Back tomorrow with hopefully better results |