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By:
kenco
When: 21 Dec 15 16:55
Capelita produced a very fast time over c/d last time out 1m40.25 has only got the 6 pound extra to carry tomorrow off this mark winning by 6ls in canter last time out was probably one of the most impressive winners of the season.
This could infact turn out to be a red hot race for horses rated up to 75 as horses such as Boots and spurs and Mujazif are thrown in on past form and have potential through their sires,if anything beats capelita tomorrow then they will be worth following as well presuming she runs to the same level.Will have to have a little bet on her based on time and ease of win and mark,but wouldn't be major surprise  if one of the other two turned her over.50pt win

Capelita 6/5 365/victor
By:
kenco
When: 21 Dec 15 16:55
Capelita produced a very fast time over c/d last time out 1m40.25 has only got the 6 pound extra to carry tomorrow off this mark winning by 6ls in canter last time out was probably one of the most impressive winners of the season.
This could infact turn out to be a red hot race for horses rated up to 75 as horses such as Boots and spurs and Mujazif are thrown in on past form and have potential through their sires,if anything beats capelita tomorrow then they will be worth following as well presuming she runs to the same level.Will have to have a little bet on her based on time and ease of win and mark,but wouldn't be major surprise  if one of the other two turned her over.50pt win

Capelita 6/5 365/victor
By:
kenco
When: 21 Dec 15 18:09
kenco
     30 Nov 15 18:07   
   

Dream walker advised price 7/1- sp 7/2Shocked -2

Eurystheus advised 14/1       - sp 5/1Shocked -2

Killa instinct advised 7/1 2nd -sp 5/1 Shocked +.40

Jack of diamonds advised 25/1 1st sp 14/1ShockedShocked +30

Kadrizzi advised 5/1            sp 3/1Shocked  -2

Tellovoi advised 10/1 3rd sp 5/1Shocked  +.75

Piceno advised 7/1        sp  5/1 ShockedShocked   -1

Soaring heights advised 12/1 sp 9/2Shocked -1

Diamond lady advised 6/1  1st sp 9/2Shocked +3.6

L'inganno felice advised 14/1  sp 4/1Shocked -1

Coillte cailin advised 8/1 2nd sp 13/2Shocked  +.50

Welsh rose advised 15/8 sp 6/4Shocked -1

Never change adised 11/10 15/8 sp 1stShocked +1.88

The gay cavalier advised 10/1 sp 5/1Shocked -1

Manson advised 7/4 sp 11/10 1stShocked +1.75

Two jabs advised 25/1 sp 13/2 1stShockedShockedShockedShocked +7.81

Ginger jack advised 12/1 sp 8/1Shocked -1

Zebs lad advised 8/1 1st sp 8/1Shocked +2.5

Mr Christopher advised 5/1 1st sp 3/1Shocked +1.32

Rock of Monaco advised 16/1 1st 2/1ShockedShockedShockedShockedShocked+4.96

Entihaa advised 7/1 1st 7/1 sp 9/4ShockedShockedShockedShocked+1.75

Fit the bill advised 16/1 sp 7/2ShockedShockedShockedShocked+1

Ornate advised 1/2 sp 8/15 Shocked -.50

Ginger jack advised 12/1 sp 10/1Shocked -.50

Shawkantango advised 20/1 sp 11/2Shocked-.50

Catain lars advised 9/4 rule 4 30p sp 4/7 works out slightly bigger than 13/8ShockedShockedShocked -.35

Apache glory advised 14/1 rule 4 20p sp 8/1 ShockedShockedShocked +.50

Ice royal advised 4/1 sp 9/2 0.0

Trimoulet advised 9/1 sp 11/2ShockedShockedShockedShockedShocked +2.82

Invectus hero advised 8/1 sp 9/2ShockedShockedShockedShocked -.50

Crosse ire advised 5/1 sp 3/1ShockedShockedShockedShockedShocked 0.0

Another destruction job on todays spsShockedShocked

Sacred trust advised 4/1 sp 9/4ShockedShockedShocked -.05

Severini advised 10/11 sp 4/7 thought it would be 1/4ShockedShockedShockedShocked +.50

Paris magic advised 5/2 sp 8/11 ShockedShockedShockedShocked -.12

Firmament advised 3/1 sp 6/5ShockedShockedShockedShockedShocked -.06

Lucky lodge advised 20/1 sp 17/2ShockedShockedShocked -.50 was never going to win everything winning  from the front ran respectable race for finisher in 5th under hand's n heels..
By:
DIE LINKE
When: 21 Dec 15 21:38
thanks for putting these up, kenco. Hope you aren't too bad healthwise, sir!
By:
kenco
When: 22 Dec 15 14:40
kenco
     30 Nov 15 18:07   
   

Dream walker advised price 7/1- sp 7/2Shocked -2

Eurystheus advised 14/1       - sp 5/1Shocked -2

Killa instinct advised 7/1 2nd -sp 5/1 Shocked +.40

Jack of diamonds advised 25/1 1st sp 14/1ShockedShocked +30

Kadrizzi advised 5/1            sp 3/1Shocked  -2

Tellovoi advised 10/1 3rd sp 5/1Shocked  +.75

Piceno advised 7/1        sp  5/1 ShockedShocked   -1

Soaring heights advised 12/1 sp 9/2Shocked -1

Diamond lady advised 6/1  1st sp 9/2ShockedShockedShocked +3.6

L'inganno felice advised 14/1  sp 4/1Shocked -1

Coillte cailin advised 8/1 2nd sp 13/2Shocked  +.50

Welsh rose advised 15/8 sp 6/4Shocked -1

Never change adised 11/10 15/8 sp 1stShocked +1.88

The gay cavalier advised 10/1 sp 5/1Shocked -1

Manson advised 7/4 sp 11/10 1stShocked +1.75

Two jabs advised 25/1 sp 13/2 1stShockedShockedShockedShockedShocked +7.81

Ginger jack advised 12/1 sp 8/1Shocked -1

Zebs lad advised 8/1 1st sp 8/1Shocked +2.5

Mr Christopher advised 5/1 1st sp 3/1Shocked +1.32

Rock of Monaco advised 16/1 1st 2/1ShockedShockedShockedShockedShockedShocked+4.96

Entihaa advised 7/1 1st 7/1 sp 9/4ShockedShockedShockedShockedShocked+1.75

Fit the bill advised 16/1 sp 7/2ShockedShockedShockedShocked+1

Ornate advised 1/2 sp 8/15Shocked -.50

Ginger jack advised 12/1 sp 10/1Shocked -.50

Shawkantango advised 20/1 sp 11/2Shocked-.50

Catain lars advised 9/4 rule 4 30p sp 4/7 works out slightly bigger than 13/8ShockedShockedShocked -.35

Apache glory advised 14/1 rule 4 20p sp 8/1Shocked +.50

Ice royal advised 4/1 sp 9/2 0.0

Trimoulet advised 9/1 sp 11/2ShockedShockedShockedShocked +2.82

Invectus hero advised 8/1 sp 9/2Shocked -.50

Crosse ire advised 5/1 sp 3/1ShockedShockedShocked 0.0

Another destruction job on todays sps

Sacred trust advised 4/1 sp 9/4ShockedShockedShocked -.05

Severini advised 10/11 sp 4/7 thought it would be 1/4ShockedShockedShockedShockedShocked +.50

Paris magic advised 5/2 sp 8/11 ShockedShockedShocked -.12

Firmament advised 3/1 sp 6/5ShockedShockedShockedShockedShocked -.06

Lucky lodge advised 20/1 sp 17/2ShockedShockedShockedShocked -.50

Capelita advised 6/5 sp 4/5 -.50

Dark illustrator advised 25/1 sp 9/1ShockedShockedShockedShocked -.50

Strange race capelitas today loads of front runners and no pace,i thought before race it was a decent race race after proximity with clockmaker and royal holiday suggests was a poorr race,had a saver on the other two menmtioned but the fav is different class to those.She actually ran 1.2 seconds quicker in a canter last time put,betting was strange as though expected to run poorly I was expecting complete opposite with a very fast time.
Dark illustrators race was gone at start wolves is massively biased towards pace horses as well at the moment over the shorter trips,dark crusaders related to lots of decent sprinters and that run was big eyeccatcher probably will be thrown in handicaps after next run will be watching out for mark...

Not many winners last 17 bets but still only a loss of .22 so far 37 bets 34 points staked profit of 44.96 points and at sp 15.53 rois of 132% at advisedShockedShocked and sp 46% ShockedShocked....
Hopefully something boxing day,may even preview the wolves meeting if the cards ok..
By:
kenco
When: 24 Dec 15 22:32
Won't be anything boxing day as card is poor even without seeing prices,sunday unlikely being Chelmsford swell probably next bets on Monday.

Have a good one!!Silly
By:
11kv
When: 25 Dec 15 11:11
Cheers Kenco

Merry xmas Excited
By:
kenco
When: 27 Dec 15 16:33
Been some very poor cards last week and this weeks look very poor up till Wednesday as well a couple of very small bets on two at lingfield tomorrow..

Communicator has  an unreliable profile so hard to be very confident,finished well behind a few of tomorrows runners at Kempton last time out over 2mile winner looks top class stayer and entihaa also won out of race,it looks like those three plus wakea look the likeliest winnrrs as have been contesting some far better class races.Wakea was also very disdapoointing last time out after showing some different class form on the turf sgainst 100+ horses could well bounce back again as better class on turf,communicators run over c/d 3 times and been 2/4/3 off a mark of 90 including twice behind litigant off 87 tomorrow so if ignoring last run might be worth a token bet in what looks a 4/5 horse race with oisin murphy riding.15ptew

Communicator 14/1 hills

Balding also runs one in the last nortron with murphy riding again,nortrons been disappointing especially from the day was runner up to eastern racer in a 4v horse race at chester,the time that day was quicker than ridge ranger winning older handicap when onto contest group race later in season.As good as gold was 4ls behind in that chester race and received 8 pound and has since won twice and rated 80,tomorrow nortron gets to run back on left handed sharper track  off 79 has been beaten twice at Kempton since going other way over 7fs,but drop back in trip and first time visor wortyn seeing if chester form can be repeated.Again a very small bet coming from the 12 draw.15ptew.

Nortron 8/1 365..
By:
s.kenbo
When: 27 Dec 15 17:47
It's really refreshing seeing somebody do a thread like this and they're not advising ridiculous bets. The amount of times I've seen people put up 20 POINTS WIN staggers belief.

I once asked somebody on the horse racing forum who had put up a horse at 25/30 points win if he was advising a £10 punter to bet £250/£300 on his fancy. He just told me that everybody bets in different amounts. Sad
By:
Kauto SuperStar
When: 27 Dec 15 19:05
Thanks Kenco, GL
By:
kenco
When: 27 Dec 15 20:30
Even though Communicator might not be great win proposition I can't see why it won't go off 10s tops in this weaker race maybe nearer 8s so should be a trade in there 14s with 365/totesport/betfred/betbright...
By:
Fait le jojo
When: 28 Dec 15 09:08
Hi Kenco...great thread bud, well done.   I am starting to follow your advice today...lets see how long till i'm shut down by bookies lol, good luck
By:
Big Boss
When: 28 Dec 15 11:31
* Nortron N/R
By:
kenco
When: 28 Dec 15 14:20
Dream walker advised price 7/1- sp 7/2Shocked -2

Eurystheus advised 14/1       - sp 5/1Shocked -2

Killa instinct advised 7/1 2nd -sp 5/1 Shocked +.40

Jack of diamonds advised 25/1 1st sp 14/1ShockedShockedShockedShocked+30

Kadrizzi advised 5/1            sp 3/1Shocked  -2

Tellovoi advised 10/1 3rd sp 5/1Shocked  +.75

Piceno advised 7/1        sp  5/1 ShockedShocked   -1

Soaring heights advised 12/1 sp 9/2ShockedShocked -1

Diamond lady advised 6/1  1st sp 9/2ShockedShockedShocked +3.6

L'inganno felice advised 14/1  sp 4/1Shocked -1

Coillte cailin advised 8/1 2nd sp 13/2Shocked  +.50

Welsh rose advised 15/8 sp 6/4Shocked -1

Never change adised 11/10 15/8 sp 1stShockedShocked +1.88

The gay cavalier advised 10/1 sp 5/1Shocked -1

Manson advised 7/4 sp 11/10 1stShocked +1.75

Two jabs advised 25/1 sp 13/2 1stShockedShockedShockedShockedShocked +7.81

Ginger jack advised 12/1 sp 8/1Shocked -1

Zebs lad advised 8/1 1st sp 8/1Shocked +2.5

Mr Christopher advised 5/1 1st sp 3/1ShockedShocked +1.32

Rock of Monaco advised 16/1 1st 2/1ShockedShockedShockedShockedShockedShocked+4.96

Entihaa advised 7/1 1st 7/1 sp 9/4ShockedShockedShockedShockedShocked+1.75

Fit the bill advised 16/1 sp 7/2ShockedShockedShocked+1

Ornate advised 1/2 sp 8/15ShockedShocked -.50

Ginger jack advised 12/1 sp 10/1Shocked -.50

Shawkantango advised 20/1 sp 11/2Shocked-.50

Catain lars advised 9/4 rule 4 30p sp 4/7 works out slightly bigger than 13/8ShockedShockedShocked -.35

Apache glory advised 14/1 rule 4 20p sp 8/1Shocked +.50

Ice royal advised 4/1 sp 9/2 0.0

Trimoulet advised 9/1 sp 11/2ShockedShockedShockedShockedShocked +2.82

Invectus hero advised 8/1 sp 9/2Shocked -.50

Crosse ire advised 5/1 sp 3/1ShockedShockedShockedShocked 0.0

Another destruction job on todays sps

Sacred trust advised 4/1 sp 9/4ShockedShockedShockedShocked -.05

Severini advised 10/11 sp 4/7 thought it would be 1/4ShockedShockedShockedShockedShocked +.50

Paris magic advised 5/2 sp 8/11 ShockedShockedShocked -.12

Firmament advised 3/1 sp 6/5ShockedShockedShockedShockedShocked -.06

Lucky lodge advised 20/1 sp 17/2ShockedShockedShockedShocked -.50

Capelita advised 6/5 sp 4/5 -.50

Dark illustrator advised 25/1 sp 9/1ShockedShockedShockedShockedShocked -.50

Communicator advised 14/1 sp 8/1 ShockedShockedShockedShockedShockedShocked-.30

Got the sp right again Winklovely trade..
By:
Fait le jojo
When: 28 Dec 15 16:01
Dummy question.....is this a back at bookies lay off on betfair thread or back at bookies and leave alone thread, thanks
By:
dunter1
When: 28 Dec 15 16:23
Back with the bookies---lay off half your stake on betfair---result: greatly enhanced value odds
is one option.Cool
By:
kenco
When: 28 Dec 15 16:30
kenco
     25 Oct 15 01:49   


If you've got plenty of accounts and want to see how quickly I can shut them down i'll chuck up the ricks on a daily basis probably till I get bored.If there's some interest i'll start on Tuesday,guarantee they will be price collapses and the prices will be up as soon as books are up.You'll have to be quick though,anyone arbing/Trading should have a field day till I shut them all downShockedShocked


It's whatever you want it to be,as the first post on the thread as above either way impossible to lose,i'm just recording it as bets running but anyone whose trading, arbing etc as I said above the contractions are so great and overbet that you can still win even if not getting anywhere near best prices.I'm even telling you the predicted sps when they look decent trades,you won't find anyone doing that anywhere..
By:
kavvie
When: 29 Dec 15 08:34
best thread on bf without a doubt
By:
pumphol.
When: 29 Dec 15 09:54
I was half expecting you to  put up Sleepy Blue Ocean today
By:
kenco
When: 29 Dec 15 16:17
Shouldv'e backed winner and runner up after last time outs write up both coming from that better class race penultimate run as I mentioned a second quicker than keep it darks other div,looked very well handicapped let the 8 draw put me off.Real kick in the nuts with both horses on previous write up coming 1,2 as well,sleepy blue ocean ran quite well trainer hasn't had a winner for 140 days 33 runners,horse might not be as good this season but looks like its going to win a race.

Very rarely bet in these races with horses rated upto 55 although there are a handful that run the same races throughout the season that you can follow and may get a win out of them seraphima definitely isn't one of those though.Last time out was nearest finish with hamis al bin in same race,needing the 6fs equally the time of the race was quicker than the other div so form looks relatively solid for poor race.Last season seraphima showed a glimpse of form then won,shown nothing since till last run it may even be worth following a couple of times when Shirley Teasdale gets off.As the prices are so big will have a little token bet though,purely based on last run would be about at finish probably will finish 4th or 5th with her giving it little chance but can't leave the price in such a poor race...15ptew

Seraphima 28/1 365
By:
kenco
When: 29 Dec 15 16:17
Shouldv'e backed winner and runner up after last time outs write up both coming from that better class race penultimate run as I mentioned a second quicker than keep it darks other div,looked very well handicapped let the 8 draw put me off.Real kick in the nuts with both horses on previous write up coming 1,2 as well,sleepy blue ocean ran quite well trainer hasn't had a winner for 140 days 33 runners,horse might not be as good this season but looks like its going to win a race.

Very rarely bet in these races with horses rated upto 55 although there are a handful that run the same races throughout the season that you can follow and may get a win out of them seraphima definitely isn't one of those though.Last time out was nearest finish with hamis al bin in same race,needing the 6fs equally the time of the race was quicker than the other div so form looks relatively solid for poor race.Last season seraphima showed a glimpse of form then won,shown nothing since till last run it may even be worth following a couple of times when Shirley Teasdale gets off.As the prices are so big will have a little token bet though,purely based on last run would be about at finish probably will finish 4th or 5th with her giving it little chance but can't leave the price in such a poor race...15ptew

Seraphima 28/1 365
By:
houseofpain
When: 29 Dec 15 16:57
16's now
By:
kenco
When: 29 Dec 15 17:09
Not worth taking less than 16s still respectable price on last run using fav as the marker for prices..
By:
werbie
When: 29 Dec 15 17:11
28-1 a massive rick - Very talented filly also quite moody. Her win over 6f here when pulling double was impressive to say the least - only problem has been replicating it - until last time out over 5f - eyecatching all right! Risks attached but 16-1 still very generous!
By:
Fait le jojo
When: 29 Dec 15 21:40
be"fair 5port5book limited me to £36 @ 14s, lol.....willi@m Hills took rest at 16s....lets see
By:
bigH
When: 29 Dec 15 22:17
Sadblokes offered me a max of 25p at 17.0
By:
Fait le jojo
When: 29 Dec 15 22:32
lol
By:
pumphol.
When: 29 Dec 15 23:21
I got some 28's been waiting since it last won back in Jan for conditions to be right, shame it was not six furlongs last time out as I would have really got stuck in, hopefully its holds its form from the last race, I was expecting around 16/1 so more than happy to go in again at that price, not a great lover of the jockey but unless she digs a big hole for herself the gaps should open up off the last bend with a bit of luck.
By:
Double Trigger
When: 30 Dec 15 12:37
11/1 now good work Kenco!
By:
kenco
When: 30 Dec 15 17:36
Dream walker advised price 7/1- sp 7/2Shocked -2

Eurystheus advised 14/1       - sp 5/1Shocked -2

Killa instinct advised 7/1 2nd -sp 5/1Shocked +.40

Jack of diamonds advised 25/1 1st sp 14/1ShockedShockedShockedShocked+30

Kadrizzi advised 5/1            sp 3/1Shocked  -2

Tellovoi advised 10/1 3rd sp 5/1Shocked  +.75

Piceno advised 7/1        sp  5/1 ShockedShocked   -1

Soaring heights advised 12/1 sp 9/2ShockedShocked -1

Diamond lady advised 6/1  1st sp 9/2ShockedShockedShocked +3.6

L'inganno felice advised 14/1  sp 4/1Shocked -1

Coillte cailin advised 8/1 2nd sp 13/2Shocked  +.50

Welsh rose advised 15/8 sp 6/4Shocked -1

Never change adised 11/10 15/8 sp 1stShocked +1.88

The gay cavalier advised 10/1 sp 5/1Shocked -1

Manson advised 7/4 sp 11/10 1stShocked +1.75

Two jabs advised 25/1 sp 13/2 1stShockedShockedShockedShockedShocked +7.81

Ginger jack advised 12/1 sp 8/1Shocked -1

Zebs lad advised 8/1 1st sp 8/1ShockedShocked +2.5

Mr Christopher advised 5/1 1st sp 3/1ShockedShocked +1.32

Rock of Monaco advised 16/1 1st 2/1ShockedShockedShockedShockedShocked+4.96

Entihaa advised 7/1 1st 7/1 sp 9/4ShockedShockedShockedShockedShocked+1.75

Fit the bill advised 16/1 sp 7/2ShockedShockedShockedShocked+1

Ornate advised 1/2 sp 8/15 Shocked -.50

Ginger jack advised 12/1 sp 10/1Shocked -.50

Shawkantango advised 20/1 sp 11/2ShockedShocked-.50

Catain lars advised 9/4 rule 4 30p sp 4/7 works out slightly bigger than 13/8ShockedShockedShocked -.35

Apache glory advised 14/1 rule 4 20p sp 8/1Shocked +.50

Ice royal advised 4/1 sp 9/2 0.0

Trimoulet advised 9/1 sp 11/2ShockedShockedShockedShocked +2.82

Invectus hero advised 8/1 sp 9/2Shocked -.50

Crosse ire advised 5/1 s 3/1ShockedShockedShocked 0.0

Another destruction job on todays sps

Sacred trust advised 4/1 sp 9/4ShockedShockedShockedShocked -.05

Severini advised 10/11 sp 4/7 thought it would be 1/4ShockedShockedShockedShocked +.50

Paris magic advised 5/2 sp 8/11ShockedShockedShockedShockedShockedShocked -.12

Firmament advised 3/1 sp 6/5ShockedShockedShockedShockedShockedShockedShockedShocked -.06

Lucky lodge advised 20/1 sp 17/2ShockedShockedShockedShockedShocked -.50

Capelita advised 6/5 sp 4/5 -.50

Dark illustrator advised 25/1 sp 9/1ShockedShockedShocked-.30

Communicator advised 14/1 sp 8/1 -.30

Seraphima advised 28/1 sp 12/1 ShockedShockedShocked-.30

If she'd run to form with winner and runner up last time out then should've been placed at worst,but combination of jock,pace holding up I this ggrade you need a lot of luck to back winners with inconsistent profiles..
By:
kenco
When: 31 Dec 15 16:40
Another overly competitive card so will just be having another very small speculative bet in one of the poorer races,miss Lillie rated 59 was rated 82 may 2014 has really shown very little in recent races although some bits of her form in midfield still equivalent to this grade.The sire has a 15% strike rate on the surface,the race is full of thoroughly unreliable types and as she's such a massive price in a grade she's never run in before then she's worth a token bet with adam beschizza riding.I'd be surprised if not a decent trade as has been going off less than double figures in slightly better races than this so will be surprised if not similar prices in this race,she was also a slight eyecatcher after being held up at Kempton last time out over inadequate 7fs.Quadriga and lu u lucky look interesting as ones unexposed and the others well handicapped but at prices miss Lillie could be the value if she goes on the surface ..15ptew

Miss Lillie 20/1 sportsbook/365...


Hoping after new year for some decent cards as usually this time of year am having 4/5 bets per meeting but have seen hardly anything worth doing poor fields or just no value so been just having some speculative picks..
By:
kenco
When: 31 Dec 15 17:04
16/1 365/lads/10bet watch ppower open 12s..Shocked
By:
kenco
When: 31 Dec 15 17:05
20/1 ppowerSilly
By:
kenco
When: 31 Dec 15 17:14
18s victor/10bet...
By:
Fait le jojo
When: 31 Dec 15 17:40
missed it...damn
By:
kenco
When: 31 Dec 15 18:07
Still 16/1 lads thought it would open 10/1 so should be a bit left in it yet..
By:
pumphol.
When: 31 Dec 15 18:47
Lads still 16's as they don't take a bet the night before, I'm restricted to 25p ew & I suspect almost no-one would get as much as a tenner on with them at the present time.
By:
kenco
When: 31 Dec 15 19:56
Still 14s with 365/ppower still bigger than expected,bound to be tipsters putting up at that price.
By:
11kv
When: 31 Dec 15 20:19
10/1 Sportsbook
By:
kenco
When: 01 Jan 16 13:13
Never looked like being out of the frame till last 50 yards,kept backing it down from 20s to 12s and then laid load off at 11s think sp was 8/1 really are clueless these books,some lovely trades but nothings hitting the frame.Also would be wary of the track at swell as looks like its beginning to get slower as temps drop
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