General Betting
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How quick can i close your accounts?
How quick can i close your accounts?
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Colourbearer maybe worth a small speculative bet in what looks a very competitive race even the 3 rags would have some sort of chance off current marks,bouclier is looking thrown in and head spaces last run at Kempton in a decent time looks rock solid form with the 3rd ocean legend,4th effusive,5th twin point and 6th noble deed all winning since.Head space looks the obvious form pick on that run,bit of a ? at this track as better runs have come at Kempton has run ok here though that form repeated the one to beat.
Colour bearer at the age of 8 won off highest mark last season so no reason to think this season cannot repeat those better runs,is currently off 70 won off 75 last season, didn't show much after that run but was 4th to memories galore off 73 in better race than this in august over c/d time respectable. Spellmaker has similar chance from that race but has shown nothing even though mark has plummeted,colourbearer then went to Kempton,no form there so could put a line through that and then came back in jan same as last season,last season went onto win 3 races after seasonal debut so maybe best caught fresh in recent times all wins have come in in the months jan/march.Oisin murphy rides,currently 18/1 with betbright/betway 16/1 generally may even get bigger or drift yet as race looks so competitive but can still see money before the off.10ptew Colourbearer 18/1 betbright/betway 16/1 lads/365/hills/corals |
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Colourbearer a more likely sort for a win at Southwell I would have thought now becoming better handicapped, someone let the cat out of the bag with Bouclier connections obviously not willing to let it run when they got no more than pennies on at any sort of price.
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Pictograph every chance but very disappointing- looked like it was all happening a bit to quickly for him - might just need further
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As I've been saying for the last month,the cards are absolute garbage just trying to scrape any little bit of value out of them worst I've seen in 20 years,think its all these Chelmsford meetings ruining the cards add in Newcastle can only get wirse.I'm used to having 4/5 horses aday in multiples with hug ricks running on not finding one bet everyday 2/3 days it's just not worth wasting time on,will gove it one more week than I'm going to have a month off if the cards don't improve just looks to me like the cards are going to be uncompetitive most days.Plus this season although I might have a dozen horses that I'm waiting for,times wise there have been very few races worth noting been the quietest aw season I can remember for progressive 3yr olds worth following.
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kenco
14 Jan 16 19:33 Dream walker advised price 7/1- sp 7/2Shocked -2 Eurystheus advised 14/1 - sp 5/1Shocked -2 Killa instinct advised 7/1 2nd -sp 5/1Shocked +.40 Jack of diamonds advised 25/1 1st sp 14/1ShockedShockedShocked+30 Kadrizzi advised 5/1 sp 3/1Shocked -2 Tellovoi advised 10/1 3rd sp 5/1Shocked +.75 Piceno advised 7/1 sp 5/1ShockedShockedShocked -1 Soaring heights advised 12/1 sp 9/2ShockedShocked -1 Diamond lady advised 6/1 1st sp 9/2ShockedShockedShocked +3.6 L'inganno felice advised 14/1 sp 4/1ShockedShockedShocked -1 Coillte cailin advised 8/1 2nd sp 13/2ShockedShocked +.50 Welsh rose advised 15/8 sp 6/4Shocked -1 Never change adised 11/10 15/8 sp 1stShockedShockedShocked +1.88 The gay cavalier advised 10/1 sp 5/1ShockedShocked -1 Manson advised 7/4 sp 11/10 1stShocked +1.75 Two jabs advised 25/1 sp 13/2 1stShockedShockedShockedShocked +7.81 Ginger jack advised 12/1 sp 8/1Shocked -1 Zebs lad advised 8/1 1st sp 8/1ShockedShocked +2.5 Mr Christopher advised 5/1 1st sp 3/1ShockedShockedShocked +1.32 Rock of Monaco advised 16/1 1st 2/1ShockedShockedShockedShockedShockedShocked+4.96 Entihaa advised 7/1 1st 7/1 sp 9/4ShockedShockedShockedShockedShocked+1.75 Fit the bill advised 16/1 sp 7/2ShockedShockedShockedShocked+1 Ornate advised 1/2 sp 8/15 Shocked -.50 Ginger jack advised 12/1 sp 10/1Shocked -.50 Shawkantango advised 20/1 sp 11/2ShockedShockedShocked-.50 Catain lars advised 9/4 rule 4 30p sp 4/7 works out slightly bigger than 13/8ShockedShockedShocked -.35 Apache glory advised 14/1 rule 4 20p sp 8/1Shocked +.50 Ice royal advised 4/1 sp 9/2 0.0 Trimoulet advised 9/1 sp 11/2ShockedShockedShockedShocked +2.82 Invectus hero advised 8/1 sp 9/2ShockedShocked -.50 Crosse fire advised 5/1 s 3/1ShockedShockedShockedShocked 0.0 Another destruction job on todays sps Sacred trust advised 4/1 sp 9/4ShockedShockedShockedShocked -.05 Severini advised 10/11 sp 4/7 thought it would be 1/4ShockedShockedShockedShocked +.50 Paris magic advised 5/2 sp 8/11ShockedShockedShockedShockedShocked -.12 Firmament advised 3/1 sp 6/5ShockedShockedShockedShockedShockedShocked -.06 Lucky lodge advised 20/1 sp 17/2ShockedShockedShockedShocked -.50 Capelita advised 6/5 sp 4/5 -.50 Dark illustrator advised 25/1 sp 9/1 ShockedShockedShockedShockedShockedShocked-.30 Communicator advised 14/1 sp 8/1ShockedShockedShockedShockedShockedShocked -.30 Seraphima advised 28/1 sp 12/1 ShockedShockedShockedShockedShockedShockedShocked-.30 Miss Lillie advised 20/1 sp 8/1ShockedShockedShockedShockedShockedShockedShocked-.30 Binky blue advised 5/2 sp 5/4ShockedShockedShockedShocked -.25 Archie's advice advised 18/1 sp 8/1 6s/13/2 most of day. ShockedShockedShockedShocked-.30 Your luckyday advised 6/1 sp 11/4ShockedShockedShockedShockedShockedShocked+.05 Heska advised 16/1 sp 7/1ShockedShockedShockedShockedShockedShocked-.05 K'agari adised evens sp 4/6 ShockedShockedshould've been 4/9 -.50 Binky blue advised 3/1 spShockedShockedShocked 2/1 +.94 Twin point advised 5/1 sp 7/4ShockedShockedShockedShocked+.90.. Bahamian sunshine advised 12/1 sp -.05 Play nicely advised 4/5 sp 2/5ShockedShockedShocked-.60 Boolass advised 7/2 sp 11/4ShockedShockedShocked +.64 50 bets 14 winners 38.7 points staked profits advised 44.72 and at sp 14.52 ROIS of 115.5%Shocked and sp 37.51% War glory advised 4/5 sp 4/11ShockedShockedShockedShocked+.40 Different scenario advised 8/1 sp 6/1 -.10 What a dandy advised 10/1 sp 7/1 ShockedShocked +.10 Seraphima advised 11/1 sp 16/1 -.20 Port paradise advised 14/1 sp 13/2ShockedShockedShockedShocked-.10 Bogardus advised 10/1 sp 6/1ShockedShockedShocked +.15 Dunguin advised 6/1 sp 11/4ShockedShockedShockedShocked-.10 Pivotal dream advised 8/1 sp 9/1 -.10 Kaisan advised 6/1 sp 5/4 ShockedShockedShockedShockedShocked+.02 Alpha tauri advised 8/1 sp 10/1 -.10 Desperate meeting at swell,on that slower surface Gaelic silver advised 5/2 sp 5/4ShockedShockedShockedShocked-.06 Camdora advised 5/4 sp 4/5ShockedShockedShockedShockedShocked +.13 Matraash advised 13/2 sp 5/1 -.20 What a dandy advised 10/1 sp 6/1  -.20As I suspected what a dandy would be given a ridiculous ride from the 10 draw,probably best horse in race and matraash kirby knew he was to far behind stopped riding. Colourbearer advised 18/1 sp 10/1 -.20Out for the run as well by the looks would be looking again at this next time out,where ever it runs.. |
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Colourbearer should run next time off 68, fingers crossed its on fibresand.
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Has anyone actually lost their accounts following Ken?
Just found the thread and want to give it a bash. I wouldn't do every single one. Is it advisable to mug bet a bit as well on the accounts or does it make no difference whatsoever? |
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Gilmer looks interesting at a huge price,the trainer has only had 1 winner in 5 seasons so is always going to be bigger than they should if any sort of respectable form profile.Gilmers win record isn't any better either is yet to win from 26 starts but is now racing off lowest ever mark was rated 81 in 2014 tomorrow off 52 with claimer taking off 2 pound.He has a stone turnaround with mr chocolate drop for a 1/4l defeat in the spring,ran 3rd to hickster off 57,4th to lyrical off 57 and a very good 2nd to heavens guest off 57 in summer all at wolves,then ran 3rd to zaria on the turf befoe 3 no shows over hurdles then last 3 runs strangely dropped to 6fs and 7fs.His last run was wide and ridden under hand'sn heels was better than result appeared,those races from the summer were slightly better than tomorrows race on those runs you wouldn't have him any bigger than 10/1 and he's getting priced up on last few runs and trainer.He's obviously not totally reliable as runs a bit keen in some races but has a relative consistent profile in races that were slightly better than this and has to be worth a small ew at these prices..10ptew
Gilmer 20/1 365... |
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16/1 now with 365/sportsbook..
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16/1 now with 365/sportsbook..
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16/1 ppower..
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16/1 totesport/boyles..
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Completely agree with the write up on Gilmer and knew you wouldn't have missed his last run when I was doing the race.Hopefully a couple will go forward to offset potential keenness (best runs in hood)but like you say at the prices worth a bet.The danger for me is Malvesi who looked like needing the run last time over 7f and was tried at 1m at 2.She must have something to offer in this grade and is owner bred so they'll be trying to win 1 or 2 before hitting the paddocks.
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Gilmer is 12's with PP now.
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The lack of hood could be an indicator of next time out but at these prices you have to back it,the beauty of it with such unfashionable trainer you could be looking at 25s in an even weaker race next time out.If the 14s is there in the morning taylor will have probably have to put it up as a bet as the rest of the card is utter garbage yet again at least trying to find a bet..
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You're right about these cards at the moment I've never had so many bet free days in my life.It's a few years since I was full time on the flat but I would be betting everyday in the winter back then.
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I will be stopping at the end of this week if cards don't pick up,havn't had any time off in 20 years bar the hospital visits I have,the meetings are just so uncompetitve small fields and what makes it worse the 3yr olds just look useless.If you look at the speedfigures for the horses rated upto 85 and 95 in the handicaps they've been absolutely abysmal there should be some tremendous value lying around by taking these inflated rated horses on but there's simply nothing coming through.It's literally taking me 30 mins to do a meeting they are that poor,i'm used to having a decent touch every 2/3 weeks on multiples throughout the aw season and I havn't even done one in about a month.Just leaves me wondering that this aw seasons going to be a wash out with nothing to do,the season started off with plenty of runners and competitive cards but the last month just seems to be getting worse.
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Will the programme pick up as they get closer to the AW championships day,there might be a few unexposed 3yo's off the turf gearing up for the 3yo sprint and mile races.Last year I was still betting on the jumps so wasn't involved day to day but with the prize money being what it is there maybe some targeted that appear in the next few weeks?
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I mentioned the better class handicaps just because the winning times have been so poor amongst the 3yr old olds,i'm not really looking to bet on the better class races as there's very rarely if any value those championship races I looked at them months ago don't like anything and there's nothing on the clock at this minute persuading me to bet.It's not just the better class supposed handicappers but it seems to be all the classes,times are desperate and hard to find anything to go on just a field full of slowboats.A bit like that Osborne horse in the first if you go through the race you come out picking it even though its a slowboat,but backing it's another thing in races like that there should be some interesting curious runners simply notyhing in there unless you're guessing.
I do have a few noted but not sure there marks will be of any value,most of the speedfigure horses have been given ratings I predicted there maybe one or two surprises,will check through them this week just incase. |
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Do you have any idea what Southwell going will be like on Tuesday,at the moment I'll only be betting in the 5f sprint but mine mightn't want it too deep.
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No it's impossible to know,i've seen it quick when the track has been riding slow in the past I'm guessing the track will be pretty standard this week maybe on the fast side,loads of rain and high temps looks unlikely to be slow.Looks 3 horse race the 5f race might back one in it and there could be a huge gamble on the card can see all the lemmings getting on board so that will be up early tomorrow evening.
not giving it away yet though.. |
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I think I know what it is but the yard has sometimes let me down with their early gambles,I like the jockey though (that's if I'm right of course).If it is the tissue price I might play.
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gilmer pulled
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Don't know why they pull them out,they've got no chance of getting the bigger prices even 9/1 was still value in that race,exactly what I've been saying there's no value the cards are terrible then when there is something like that which was huge value gets pulled.Complete waste of time..
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Don't know why they pull them out,they've got no chance of getting the bigger prices even 9/1 was still value in that race,exactly what I've been saying there's no value the cards are terrible then when there is something like that which was huge value gets pulled.Complete waste of time..
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yup it's a mystery right enough. very frustrating for you when you have put in the hard yards
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The time of the self cert (11:51am) says it all
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Grandest returns to swell having been with brian Ellison since july from the one run with roger charlton,appears to have gone backwards only respectable run was 8th of 14 to poeswood at Newmarket although that race was completely different class to tomorrows race.His last two runs over the mile at wolves,appeared to be cantering either blew up or just not put into race was difficult to tell and then last time out missed the breakl over 7fs.
When with john gosden won on second run at swell had play to the whistle almost 16;ls behind in 3rd now rated 70 on the aw and jalingo in the 80s 3 3/4ls behind,time was decent only .31 slower than 74 rated two no bids as a 2yr old that made him look potentially nice handicapper on this surface,conservatively 85+he got a mark of 79 and flopped back on the surface in handicap. The ? is how much ability does he retain hasn't had that many races and will the surface be the key,tomorrows race is abysmal if the stable think he can run to 65+ then will surely be a huge gamble,he will probably get heavily bet regardless but if stable thinks he will win there's a chance will be smashed off the boards.15ptew Grandest 10/1 sportsbook.. |
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Not the one I was thinking of but had been on my radar for when he came back to Southwell,I couldn't make up my mind about him after watching his last 2 runs admittedly on Tapeta but everything you've wrote is spot on.
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Sportsbook surely doesn't count as someone has a fiver EW and they cut it to 7s
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10/1 365...
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Fair play & good luck!
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Mappin times worth a small bet to reverse form with dungannon was unlucky being drawn high last time out not getting a clear run,a lot will depend on Rachel Richardson but has better draw tomorrow in 4,will be interesting to see if dungannon can run off this hiogher mark as was in the 100s last season.Mappin time looks a tiny bit of value .15ptew
Mappin time 7/2 hills.. |
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If the going is a tad slower than on its last run, it should come there pulling a train - thats the theory anyway
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That's the one,I was convinced he was on the wrong part of the track last time I've got most of it on but won't have any more below 3-1.
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Grandest should be going off 5/2 in that race if the stable think it can run to 65,as there would be no reason not to back it any prices bigger than that would look unlikely winner to me althiough looking cracking trade..
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Kenco your really pushing the boat out on this one to get it to trade at under 4.5 on the fair
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To be honest if the stable really thought it was capable of running to 65+ would be far shorter than 5/2 and that will be reflected in betting if they don't I imagine will be around the 9/2 mark.Unlike most of the picks on here that I've highlighted the ricks 90% of them have been smashed off the boards,this one is more sopeculative as you're looking at form from a while back.
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Connections may now be well disappointed with the price on offer.
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If I had a horse that I knew was capable of running to 65 in that race I'd be lumping on ew at all prices down to 11/4 and 5/2,you've have to be an idiot not to be..
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