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LIQUIDITY IN BIG DECLINE ON BETFAIR
LIQUIDITY IN BIG DECLINE ON BETFAIR
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pmbets, that wasn't an average US race was it? Betfair SP was 165% then the next race at Zia was 143%. Something very strange went on there but an average US race it certainly was not.
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Another factor when looking at liquidity.
From personal, I work with someone that used to put larger sums in and trade. I remember calculating what he did per race across all horses and at times his % involvement was staggering. He still tends to risk the same amount (i.e. leaving open positions) but instead of trading to reduce risk to next to nothing, he has me focused more on the research then positions his money accordingly. He was one player who, at times, would get 15,000 of matched bets (7,500) and then position 100 per race into investments (backs or lays). Now, basically more focus on research and 100 is the profit target still. |
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Yes, Nfl liquidity was well down on last years, used to throw my mug bets up on betfair, a few beers and five hours of fun, other exchanges offering betting rates of commission, so they get my business and my liquidity. Early live game only matched 600k, was 2m plus last year from memory.
Just baffling, rather some commission than none, and just making the competitors stronger. Saying concentrating on the sports book product should not mean you kill of a global leading business which had 100m revenue plus. |
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The leapfrogging bots have finally bored everyone to death
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I wonder if there is a chance that BF do a backturn and the PC gets waived at some point due to liquidity decreasing and competitors getting stronger.
BF have defintitely lost all the goodwill they had built up so there will be no loyalty from PC payers if a good alternative is there. I think BF must be fairly confident that they will hold the monopoly indefinitely. This could be a long term mistake but so far they have been proved right. |
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Pullo - IMO, P/C is here to stay unless the company it bought with new senior management team put in place, or they decide to go back on the sports book, which is highly unlikely as they are throwing so much money at it to make it their flagship product, essentially they are too far down the line with this transition to turn back.
As stated previously, matchbook i believe is there main competitor, with a low commission structure with strong liquidity in the main markets, there downfall is a very average trading platform and not many side markets, this is where betfair stand alone. When you pay P/C your betting / trading strategy will need to change to reflect this, which inevitably means you will need to use other trading platforms as when it suits. |
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Hence why liquidity is rapidly declining in some markets, but not all
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Is it correct to say that overall UK horse racing still remaining fairly strong on here?
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Have Matchbook got a UK licence or will they drop out of the UK picture once the point of consumption tax starts?
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Not totally sure frog, but think Alderney comes under the UK umbrella as part of the UK in a sense, as much of the current gambling commission criteria to operate originated from the Alderney Gambling commission in the late 90s.
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I don’t place many of my bets here because I back early and the liquidity isn’t there early in the day.
Even now at 11:50 to back Bosman Rule in the 1420 at Listowel it’s 1.37 (£136) , 1.38 (£45) , 1.39 (£25) Where as elsewhere it’s 1.36 without commission and with BOG available, so where is the incentive to put my money on the exchange? They should at least do a trial period of taking away PC for non BOT bets and advertise it as say for this month only all commission is now 4% for everyone, then see what happens. But they’re short sighted tards so don’t expect much to change until it really starts to go down the toilet. |
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It happens race after race.POOR LIQUIDITY.
Another example race 3 suffolk result 1st no9 betfair sp 8/1 tote 12/1 2nd no8 betfair sp 11/1 tote 22/1 and remember the the tote pools are still bad value.What does that make Betfair's with up to 60% winners tax off that very poor sp?? |
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It is happening in all markets. It couldn't be any other way though. It is been a while since betfair decided to let this die to focus on the sportsbook.
With new regulations in the UK the picture is changing significantly. Only bad news so far, as expected. I guess our only hope is that some other company really interested in the exchange model gets a license and we finally do the move we should had done years ago. Otherwise, I guess the PC will rise again. |
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Anecdotally, I have to say NFL liquidity has been really disappointing this season. I may give up on it altogether, because it just isn't worth the effort at the moment.
Which is the problem in a nutshell, really. Declining liquidity is a vicious circle. The worse it gets, the more market-makers drop out, the worse the prices get, the more positional players got elsewhere... Repeat to fade. |
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'anecdotally' is modus operandi on here....thought they had the "chit chat" part of the forum reserved for that
so why don't you climb out of your nutshell and post yearly NFL trading volume totals for the last 10y or so...might be in for a surprise |
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All that's left are Bots which put up sh1t prices and hoovering scum. No competition.
Not exactly an enjoyable experience anymore |
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Quoted wrong post then. Meant to be agreeing with viva.
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I'd love to slap Breon Cocoran. Talk about destroy the betting exchange that was once so popular! I hope the betfair sportsbook fails in the coming years. That would make me happy.
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Got more matched at bet daq on the chelsea schalke game. Never thought I'd see the day.
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Got some bets matched on Chelsea to win Group G outright at bet daq. I have traded a £34.50 free bet on them.
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easy there, fixed.
if I had those numbers, I'd post them. but I don't; just my own experience. so I posted that instead. I've "done" nfl on here for years, and my experience is that the money's declined to the point it just doesn't feel worth it any more. if anyone's got hard numbers to contradict that, great. let's see them. |
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awful today again for champions league matches...definately increases in commision causing this imo. People playing elsewhere now.
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How are we defining liquidity?
Total matched for market duration? Total matched for different times of the market? Amounts available to back and lay @ or near 100% at any one time? |
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total matched in my analysis for similar games in past
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ridiculous. no numbers, just random "imho" nonsense talk
my money stays on "total traded NFL at all time high" |
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Just like the basketball eh boy?
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I'd only be interested in the most recent NFL figures compared to the same weeks in previous seasons.
Plenty of markets and/or sports nosedive in turnover. Won't be the first and won't be the last. |
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Regarding the NFL, I have not bet on it yet this season, but have just had a look in the North American forum and interest is almost gone there. Even two seasons ago we could have 500 messages on a single game and a good bit of banter whilst betting.
I know this is not liquidity but shows how interest forum wise can dry up markedly and I am sure this is a reflection on less people betting on the games too. |
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I've just downloaded last week's and the equivalent week previous year's data and NFL liquidity is about 34% down on the figures downloaded, although the files were too large to fully load.
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The Forum thing I think is different to the liquidity thing and I can think of at least 4 causes:
- the two years in which no new users were allowed to register on the Forum - the new requirement that new Forum users have to have had a Betfair account for 6 months before they join - poor 'selling' of the Forum to new customers when they reach the 6 month point - the general move away from this kind of newsboard and onto FB/Twitter etc |
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last year i traded the nfl, not for big sums, just hundreds, maybe a few grand in total, not any more, as same prices, same liquidity, no P/C, and lower commission rates available elsewhere
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yes i don't bet on american sports but if you do i'm sure there's much better places to bet.
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The turnover in bigger markets hide the malaise of the markets behind them. If the turnover in them increases by 10% it covers the 90% that some sports or markets have fallen by. You tend not to notice about the liquidity in high turnover markets because it's something you only really notice when you can't get your bets on. If you can't get your bets on you lose interest and turnover can quickly fall off a cliff.
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If you bet in the UK you can't bet at these places though YOMOMMA because of the point of consumption tax.
The thinking might be that these people might come to Betfair now. Imo it's more likely that people lose interest in NFL because its now harder to get your bets on and Betfair was benefiting from that betting interest. There were probably arbs or opportunities to hedge that bought turnover Betfair's way too. |
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Problem is anyone who comes to Betfair now and doesn't know its product, is faced by a normal bookmakers first.
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In Harrogate there are say 20 top quality antique shops. There might not be another top quality antique shop within 100 miles of Harrogate in any direction. People go to Harrogate to look at antiques. If there was only one shop there it wouldn't be worth their while. This point of consumption tax could have far reaching consequences for Betfair.
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Just looking at Matchbook football pries, they have at least if not more liquidity in this evenings football main markets, the sub markets not so great, I played small with betfair in their sub markets, as too far behind to worry about P/C this week
. Matchbook is a very real and serious competitor to all exchange operators. |