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LIQUIDITY IN BIG DECLINE ON BETFAIR
LIQUIDITY IN BIG DECLINE ON BETFAIR
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The US horse racing is on its knees now.Any race after midnight it a zero liquidity event.Maybe £150
matched by bot once the race starts.And that's for the full race. Anyone remember the good old days at US track GREAT LAKES DOWNS when between us all we got about £270,000 match for a single race and on the tote at GLD about $3000 was matched.Great days when Betfair welcomed winners. Betfair promised to spend the PC money on the exchange getting more punters in.What has happened to all that money?Looks like a small few coins of it has been thrown at the exchange. |
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Do the people in charge/directors read all the posts re: the complete dissatisfaction with the decline of the site. Has anyone written to them to ask what's going on and how serious the situation appears to be?? and are they intending to do anything about it.
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Who cares mate, just bet elsewhere.
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I think there's an interesting discussion to be had on the which markets are liquid and how soon they're liquid; I've only been on here for 4 years or thereabouts, so I missed the early days. I get the strong impression it was like online poker a few years back - lots of mugs to be fleeced by the knowledgeable and competent; those mugs eventually get sick of losing and find better things to do with their money, leaving the knowledgeable and competent trying and failing to fleece each other and complaining the game's not what it used to be.
But as for Westender's "when Betfair folds in the future", this from BF's results announcement at the end of the last finiancial year: http://corporate.betfair.com/~/media/Files/B/Betfair-Corporate/press-releases/2014/fy14-results-announcement.pdf "Exchange revenue was down 1% to £244.3m (FY13: £247.5m). The first half of the year saw a decline of 7%, largely due to the absence of a major international football tournament (Euro 2012) and the adverse impact of market exits. In sustainable markets Exchange revenue was up 2%. Sportsbook revenue grew by 50% to £36.2m (FY13: £24.1m) following a 50% rise in the number of active customers." which doesn't read like the end of the Exchange or the end of Betfair to me. |
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THEY SHOULD HAVE BETFAIR TERMINALS IN ALL CHIPSHOPS
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THEY SHOULD HAVE BETFAIR TERMINALS IN ALL CHIPSHOPS
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THEY SHOULD HAVE BETFAIR TERMINALS IN ALL CHIPSHOPS
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THEY SHOULD HAVE BETFAIR TERMINALS IN ALL CHIPSHOPS
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THEY SHOULD HAVE BETFAIR TERMINALS IN ALL CHIPSHOPS
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The first tip about analysing a business is to understand the context, the comparative figures over a period of years, see through the cherry picked stats and understand the long term impact of decisions.
The Exchange has been in decline since the first premium charge was introduced in 2008 and will be in big trouble when a well funded new innovative entrant appears. Unless the Exchange is managed properly - eg advertised, not hidden away on www.betfair.com, premium charges abolished and replaced with a simple commission structure then liquidity will continue to disappear week by week. Look at tomorrows football in play coupon and you will not see many markets formed correctly. Pre 2008, all the boxes were filled on both sides for nearly every match. Sportsbook revenue grew to £24.1m - how much did the advertising cost and what was the profit figure? (Answer should be close to the square root of zero.) Hopefully Betfair mgt smell the coffee soon as all that will be left is a very small Betsquare internet bookmaker at best. |
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Do wah Diddy
 Knowing Betfair they would probably pull the exchange out of the most successful chip shops within 1 year and focus on a single coffee shop near Lands End. |
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The betfair exchange is like a £2 arcade. They should close most it down and keep open the main markets. Anyone new who joins the exchange and looks at a football match and sees matched: GBP 0 everywhere and empty boxes is going to log off and go straight back to the William Hill's and Bet365's.
Has there ever been 3 figures matched on half with most goals/exact total goals etc? No I don't think so. Longbridge you can use figures to prove anything if used incorrectly. I am 100% sure the exchange has declined dramatically even compared to just last year. The US Open tennis is abysmal. Not even worth looking at. |
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...and the £2's and most likely to be bots.
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Yomomma is correct, get rid of all the shrapnel markets on sports like football and the likes of the A vs B on racing. If they aren't turning over any cash get rid and tidy the site up and make it more user friendly for customers. See also in-running place markets on the horses apart from big meetings.
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Longbridge, I can't speak for other posters on this thread, but at least I'm talking about the first few weeks of this football season compared to the last season ending in May. Any decline, should it be real, would not be visible in any financial report yet. We'll see in the next quarterly report.
I almost find it unbelievable btw that in their annual report they didn't even mention that they had increased commission to 6.5% for most of the world, Not really irrelevant information for shareholders, is it? They just said that revenue from "other markets" had declined by 18% (or was it 17? can't remember) because of market exits and stopped investment (read advertising). 30% higher commission couldn't have anything to do with the rate at which they lose international customers? They also said that they expected to continue to lose 15-25% of their international customers annually... |
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Betfair just announced some good results today: http://corporate.betfair.com/media/press-releases/2014/04-09-2014.aspx
Revenue up 30% driven by a strong World Cup and continued momentum across all products Revenue excluding the World Cup up 12%, including 17% growth in sustainable markets EBITDA up 39% to £34.5 million Sustainable revenue mix up three percentage points to 80% Mobile revenue up 162% and the channel contributed 70% of Sportsbook revenues Customer acquisition up 181% and number of active customers up 48% |
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Have they ever announced bad results? They probably just make it all up as they go along like their pricing structure.
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Do they actually mention exchange revenue specifically?
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anywhere?
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With cross-matching integrated into their bookmaking, the exchange will not disappear.
Their push into the APP market is another stream but is this (a) going to the bookmaker or (b) to the exchange? It is structured like an exchange APP (greening out multiples, one touch, etc) but is it exchange money being used for this or the betfair bookmaker redding out? |
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How many people here think that Betfair are not interested in the exchange part of the business anymore? Seems to always be the sportsnook they are promoting
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Exchange is mentioned 3 times in the latest press report and every time in relation to the sportsbook. No information relating to the exchange and I'm not surprised. What makes no sense is why try and kill the exchange when it is clearly deemed so important as a differentiator for the sportsbook. Betfair are just looking for quick wins (Who can blame the management) and it will cost them ultimately everything in the future. As someone else said recently. Just look at Tesco and how well they were going...
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We are all to blame really. We should have jumped ship ages ago and gone to a competitor but nobody did. The fact that an apparently well funded alternative in the purple shop over the road continually fails to have an impact indicates to me that the sole purpose of the exchange boils down to one place to do in-running betting. Things could change over night and may well do, but until then BF will continue to be the only realistic exchange player.
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It appears exchange and sportsbook revenues are now just called 'sports'.
70% of bets are price rushed onto the exchange. It looks like the harvesting of the exchange is working at the moment. |
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* on some markets 70% of bets were price rushed.
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Have a look at the England ODI cricket match being played tomorrow. 26 side markets and they are all absolutely empty bar 1.01 for tied match no and 1.01 completed match yes . No two ways about it, liquidity is well down on the betfair exchange. It's crystal clear for all to see.
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liquidity may be down , but the share price is doing ok
that's all that matters |
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Betfair mentioned in the year end results that they would no longer separate the exchange and the sportsbook when reporting numbers. They see the integration of the two (primarily through Price Rush) as a reason to report it as a single entity.
As for plummeting liquidity in side markets, I concur. The first week of the US Open was unlike any other Grand Slam I've seen and they've been getting worse year on year. It's the same with all sports and I'm forced to withdraw from markets I used to seed/work on. The Sportsbook is a huge issue. Just yesterday I was having to explain to someone that there are two Betfair's. Betfair know people see Betfair and assume it's the place with the best prices. Betfair is managed with the goal of maximising the share price in the short term. |
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US Horse racing liquidity is all but dead now.Just bots offering less than the tote price.
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I follow U.S.
Book is better than the tote. Value is if you have an EW selection (fave's are tight). Until U.S. laws change like New Jersey, it will be the case. |
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US racing has declined over the past few years, my friends are living proof who used come round once a week and have a punting lads night, but no more, we lost had good fun etc, no liquidity no bets, no commission, no new accounts, simple. Windies v bangladesh cricket, no money in any market other than win odds, even that is real quiet.
Shifter, i remember 3/4 years ago US markets were matching 6 figures most races, you will be lucky to see that on best race of the week. UK racing is dominated by bots, no real money, as the folk who seeded the markets have left due to 40 percent P/C, as with most other sports fact!!!! |
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Given the big price moves in the UK market can't believe that is 'all bots' unless they programmed them to do gambles/drifters too.
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course that is also possible, lol
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Need to keep this simple so everyone understands how bad it is.
If you back the winner you still lose as after deductions you are taking less than the true chances of the horse winning .Remember Betfair exchange is now a very illiquid market.Like a £2 arcade run mostly by bots. Here is an average US race.The tote pools are very bad value.See how betfair exchange is even worse. 1st race zia betfair last priced matched and probable SP VERSUS US track tote SP.Saturday 6th Septemeber 2014. Betfair tote no1 4.5 5.5 no2 3.6 4.0 no3 4.0 5.0 no4 6.2 6.0 no5 6.2 7.0 no6 10.0 23 no7 8.2 11 no8 11 19 no9 3.0 10 no10 4.0 4.5 Please remember up to 60% is deductable from Betfair SP. So the tote wins by a landslide on all prices.And the tote is considered poor value(which it is). |
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PLEASE TELL THE TRUTH is spot on.We used to have a lads night but no more same reasons.
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First day of NFL and liquidity seems abject.
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"If you back the winner you still lose as after deductions you are taking less than the true chances
of the horse winning" UTTER NONSENSE. |