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realistic, long term profit expectations!!

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Replies: 100
By:
disco dennis
When: 03 Jul 14 13:01
ARE YOU STILL IN PROFIT GUSCHER????
By:
Super Hans
When: 03 Jul 14 22:17
Very easy to say it's only profit I can lose.

That is until you lose it. Then the problems start.

Gl if you're still going.But cash your chips now and look for something else.

The bullet will hit eventually.
By:
Super Hans
When: 03 Jul 14 22:19
Just noticed the post dates.Sad

Would suggest the bullet has already found its target.
By:
learner
When: 15 Jul 14 11:38
we hear a lot about commission surely the way round this is to back and lay on the same market
By:
GUSCHER
When: 15 Aug 14 17:13
I haven't been on here for some time and I'm afraid to say that all you wise guy's were spot on, in that about December last year I had a really bad run and lost all my bank bar £500!!  So you were right as I knew in my heart of hearts increasing stakes for recovery purposes is not the answer!!   So not to be defeated I tried a different approach! Please feel free to shoot me down in flames once again but what about this:

     I only have one laybet a day. If it loses I have made my target profit for the day. If it wins I have lost that day but I spread that loss over the next 3 or 4 days days. I increase my odds range by 50% so that I only get a few bets on per day/or stop at one third or quarter of recovery, but with the increased odds range I should hit fewer winners & with a little luck! this will only happen a few times a month. Although I have had a bad run and it has taken me 21 days (7x3!) to recover (May). But I have made a continual monthly profit so far since January. So I'm not increasing the stake for my recovery bets but just increasing the frequency of bets per day for recovery. I know people don't agree with recovery but I don't see it as recovery as I'm not increasing the stakes. I know it's a bit boring to have only one bet a day and it wouldn't suit everyone's taste, but profit is profit! Has been going well since January with profit running at +£3000 from £30 lay bet with a 90.6 S.R.

   Thanks for reading & good luck, any comments, advice good or bad is very welcome!
Gus
By:
GUSCHER
When: 17 Aug 14 17:06
Be warned! Although I don't view it as recovery! I did have a bad day yesterday(sat) where I lost 4 selections so it will take me several days or more to recover this. Weekends always seem a bit of a volatile couple of days. Maybe I should reduce the stake at weekends!
By:
GUSCHER
When: 16 Sep 14 07:34
All recovered now, so a small profit for August and no losses for first half of September.
By:
mandarin
When: 16 Sep 14 10:27
Majority of punters are boom & bust merchants, traders the same (thats no criticism just a fact), winning periods blighty by losing periods. That can extend over years, 2 good years followed by 1 bad, wiping out profits. It all equates to the same after a few years - no profit.

You've got to be totally honest with yourself if you're serious. Measure yourself over a period of 3 years, 5 years, & beyond. That's the true measure of whether you've cracked it or not.
By:
Lex
When: 16 Sep 14 12:27
Lets start from basics

You cant chase your losses. eg divide the loss by the odds and add it on to the stake etc etc.
You need value when you bet. Value is when the price you bet at is better than the statistical chance of the event happening.
If you have value then you bet at level stakes and only raise your stake when the bank has cleared its losses.


At the very least you need to know the statistical losing/winning run. You double that figure and divide your bank by that figure to get the safe level of staking.

I like laying favs. Every fav. This is because I like the frequency of bets and the buzz and that my losing runs are short.

I know that 35% of favs win and the average industry starting price for all UK and Ireland favs is 2.75.
I know there has never been 10 consecutive winning favs in uk or ireland racing.
I know it is rare as rocking horse poo to have more than 55% winning favs in a day.
I also know that if I beat the ISP by only 1% and stake 1% of my £500 bank I will over a typical year have over £250k
I genuinely pee myself when i think of 2.5% of my bank and beating ISP by 15% ( which is not hard) eg 2.75 = 2.5

I know I can acheive this in running, or where the fav price is not really a fav eg 4.0 I can do it by laying more than one.
I know that I dont have to get back the whole lost stake, just the part that was unnecessarily over staked. (thats not chasing but bank management over the betting cycle)

I know my missus says that if Im that feckin clever why aint I minted. Well Im not poor, but its because I love a gamble and lose money on those stupid bored bets...

That would make a very short book on 'betting to win' but its all you need to know.
By:
TameTheTiger
When: 16 Sep 14 22:30
I know I can acheive this in running, or where the fav price is not really a fav eg 4.0 I can do it by laying more than one.

How do you do this ? what if the other one you lay wins ?
15% under SP doesnt get matched more than 70% of the time
By:
TameTheTiger
When: 16 Sep 14 22:31
sorry that should read 15% under SP only gets matched 70% of the time
By:
TameTheTiger
When: 17 Sep 14 14:04
2.00 sandown macdillon 5/2 fav nothing matched below 3.6
By:
TameTheTiger
When: 17 Sep 14 14:12
210 beverley designate 6/4 fav matched at 2.22 in running and lost.
By:
TameTheTiger
When: 17 Sep 14 14:25
220 yar bartel 11/8 fav won.
By:
TameTheTiger
When: 17 Sep 14 14:32
230 san dartmouth 9/4 fav won
By:
TameTheTiger
When: 17 Sep 14 14:42
240 bev ajaadat 9/4 fav won
By:
TameTheTiger
When: 17 Sep 14 14:53
250 yar fever few 9/4 fav matched at a a low of 1.4 in running and lost
By:
TameTheTiger
When: 17 Sep 14 17:59
similar events for the rest of the day. Some matched below sp and lose,some go on to win,and some remain unmatched. 8 points down so far
By:
Lex
When: 18 Sep 14 13:58
and yesterday? its cyclic....
By:
ZEALOT
When: 20 Jan 15 18:14
Any movement ?
By:
aaa
When: 26 Sep 16 04:55
'Recovery' system....mmmm

If people think their 'recovery systems' are infallible, why don't they abandon the system that needs recovering, and just use the recovery system instead?
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