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realistic, long term profit expectations!!

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Replies: 100
By:
ZEALOT
When: 26 Jun 13 22:16
edge + compounding is the answer .

start with 1k .... make 3% per week ... compound ... 21k after 2 years .
By:
GUSCHER
When: 26 Jun 13 22:58
So with all your guy's knowledge and laying experience, How long does it Normally take for a lay system with recovery take to wipe out a bank is it days, months or could it take years I know it's a difficult thing to estimate but loads of you must have tried similar systems with similar bank/stake ratios, could I ask how long it took you to fail??
By:
GUSCHER
When: 26 Jun 13 23:00
Zealots would that be backing or laying and with level stakes I take it
By:
GUSCHER
When: 26 Jun 13 23:00
Zealots would that be backing or laying and with level stakes I take it
By:
GUSCHER
When: 26 Jun 13 23:01
Zealots would that be backing or laying and with level stakes I take it
By:
ZEALOT
When: 26 Jun 13 23:11
start with 1,000

end of 1st week - 3% on bank - new bank = 1,030

end of 2nd week - 3% on 1,030 = 1,060.9

etc etc etc ---- at the end of 104 week  BALANCE = 21,000 +
By:
FINE AS FROG HAIR
When: 26 Jun 13 23:25
Gusher
It basically depends on the volume of wagers you are making.
But you could go your whole lifetime without being wiped out, but equally you could be wiped out the first day.
But what's the point of the question.
It sounds to me that you don't really believe the maths.
If it is possible for you to get wiped out now or later, what is the point of wasting time and effort in persevering with the system?
By:
GUSCHER
When: 27 Jun 13 06:50
Because I might spend the odd grand profit and then die before I get wiped out then that can be concluded as a success!!
By:
JLivermore
When: 27 Jun 13 08:06
Spend it now and we'll call all this a success then
By:
GUSCHER
When: 27 Jun 13 10:27
Are but we can't just do that as most of us are of the same ilk, we are gamblers and just will not stop!!
By:
GUSCHER
When: 27 Jun 13 10:27
Are but we can't just do that as most of us are of the same ilk, we are gamblers and just will not stop!!
By:
GUSCHER
When: 27 Jun 13 15:12
O.K guy's you kind of convinced me & scared me into taking some action, so I have done some more in depth calculations based on the lay prices I have been getting. So here is what I am going to do. I'm going to split my bank into two and continue using my lay with recovery system. Then looking at my past 11 months results I think I may be able to use my same selections but back them at level stakes!! I should be able to make similar profit without risking my whole bank, I guess at least if you are backing and laying the same selections you can only lose the one bank at a time!! Thanks for all your input. Will let you know how I get on over the next few months!
By:
sweetchildofmine
When: 27 Jun 13 15:14
thats the power of the forum at its best, how it should always be and if its only helped you a little then its all been worth it..good luck
By:
GUSCHER
When: 27 Jun 13 15:20
Thanks for that s.c.o.m Good luck to you too!
By:
ZEALOT
When: 27 Jun 13 15:24
GUSCHER

Any "recovery" system is DOOMED ------- end of
By:
kenilworth
When: 27 Jun 13 15:25
sweetchildofmine Joined: 26 Aug 07
Replies: 15329 27 Jun 13 15:14   


thats the power of the forum at its best, how it should always be and if its only helped you a little then its all been worth it..good luck

...and 'sweety' never posted! maybe that's what he is referring to when he said  'it's all been worth it'.
By:
kenilworth
When: 27 Jun 13 15:26
err, what advice did 'sweety' offer?
By:
GUSCHER
When: 27 Jun 13 15:42
Well thanks to you all. All advice and help is much appreciated by everyone I'm sure. If you can sift through some of the junk in this forum a lot of the help is great.
By:
sheppy123
When: 27 Jun 13 15:49
Haha, we're all try to help you and you've probably made the most profit!

I like people that are open to criticism so well done Gus!
By:
c0rbchenk0
When: 08 Jul 13 08:43
"Then looking at my past 11 months results I think I may be able to use my same selections but back them at level stakes!! I should be able to make similar profit without risking my whole bank"

hmmm I would say if you looked at your data and worked out you can make a profit from backing the same horses you select for your lay system, you have no system, you might as well just save yourself time and go "random" .. It is your loss recovery that has made you money, nothing to do with your selection system.

I personally think you are better to neither back or lay your selections, and find a way to actually pick the horses that will win money  if you back them but lose if you lay them, or win if you lay them and lose money if you back them.

But here is a clue , If you are brilliant at backing horses and get them at the wrong prices, you will still lose money.

Then again what is value when a race that is run 3 times with the exact same horses will offer considerably different odds depending on the result of the previous race, so what is really the true value .
By:
GUSCHER
When: 08 Jul 13 15:11
Thanks Orb, but I have neither the time nor skill to follow your suggestion, only wish I had! just trying to make a few quid using the bots the best way i can! after all it's only a bit of fun! for me anyway! but thanks for your post and advice.
Gus
By:
GUSCHER
When: 08 Jul 13 15:11
Thanks Orb, but I have neither the time nor skill to follow your suggestion, only wish I had! just trying to make a few quid using the bots the best way i can! after all it's only a bit of fun! for me anyway! but thanks for your post and advice.
Gus
By:
racingguru
When: 08 Jul 13 15:31
I just don't get some people you think that tinkering around with laying/staking systems is the holy grail. To win money long term you simply have to back at a bigger price than the real chance or lay at a shorter price than the real chance (commission factored in). Obviously is a lot harder to develop those skills but no amount of to55ing around with bots/staking strategies is gonna get away from that simple fact.

Anyway good luck as I know this is gonna fall on deaf ears.
By:
sweetchildofmine
When: 08 Jul 13 15:45
Anyway good luck as I know this is gonna fall on deaf ears.




it would be a shame if it did rguru, as you make a perfectly good point
By:
GUSCHER
When: 08 Jul 13 17:27
Good point indeed but hey it's just a bit of fun from a hobby & if you can make a few quid along the way it's a bonus. If not then as long as it's money you can well afford to lose, then no harm done!!
By:
GUSCHER
When: 08 Jul 13 18:08
So just as a question of interest: if you backed and layed a 1,2,3,or 4th favourite on every u.k/ire race at level stakes for 10 years would you lose both your banks, break even or profit on one side and lose the other? or is that too unpredictable to know? I know the comm would eat into a lot of the profit.
By:
sweetchildofmine
When: 08 Jul 13 18:44
thats it in a nutshell ..the difference either way could well be marginal, but the commission would be a killer
By:
racingguru
When: 09 Jul 13 02:54
Guscher - apologies - nothing wrong in having a bit of fun and being able to write off a small sum that won't hurt you. That is the majority situation for most.

I just get tired of million threads trying to "crack" it or finding the holy grail of systems as they don't exist. Most sports and especially horse racing is very beatable but again there's no easy way other than to learn your craft to a level way ahead of the bookies/odds compilers.

Good luck in your betting.
By:
GUSCHER
When: 09 Jul 13 07:03
I'm sure you are right RG, there is no such thing as easy money
By:
Obama2012
When: 19 Jul 13 13:49
I think their such a thing as easy money gusher, the real pros on this must be using a well worked formula, an make steady profits, their simply isn't enough hours in the day to research 20+ plus bets per day every day an then find them at odds which you think represents value.
By:
3setpoints
When: 22 Jul 13 01:41
so maybe they back say any horse of a certain age who has won 2 races but didn't win their last race for example?
By:
GUSCHER
When: 24 Aug 13 23:11
Just a small update on my original post at the beginning of this thread, although it wont interest most of the pro's on here as I DO use a gentle recovery mode which I accept from you all that is doomed to fail! but hey I'm still having fun! and as I have just completed my 12th month of profit I thought I would update my thread with my results for the year 25.8.12-24.8.13

total profit £2353.86
total win bets 7234 from 8450 races= 85.6% S/R
total losing days = 54 out of 361 days
total losing months =0 

I have removed my original investment from my account, as advised by some of you, so am playing with profit only, so not too bothered what happens next, If I'm still in profit after the next quarter I will let you know!!
By:
FINE AS FROG HAIR
When: 25 Aug 13 09:10
Just out of curiosity, but what was the largest bet you made in that period ?
By:
GUSCHER
When: 25 Aug 13 09:18
Hi F.A.F
         A nerve racking £152!! Which paid off but I use a bot so I missed the actual recovery races!! I don't think I could have watched them anyway, I'd have been sick!!
By:
FINE AS FROG HAIR
When: 27 Aug 13 01:12
Imo just goes to show the pointlessness of any such system.
To make it even reasonably worthwhile, say to make circa 500 pounds per week, you would have had a max bet of circa 1600 pounds.
Could you have in fact even got set at that amount in the race in question ?.
Also that is all in a good case scenario of the system not yet really testing you out with a serious run of losses.
Not much point to the whole exercise is there ?
By:
GUSCHER
When: 27 Aug 13 07:14
"pointless" Yes as is 99% of gambling and gamblers but we still do it! must be for the fun as it is fun while it last. So long as your aware of the situation and don't become addicted no harm done. I am doing it for fun and don't need to make £500 per week and am quite happy to keep the stakes the same while just letting the stake to bank ratio increase every month so makes it a little safer every month!
By:
FINE AS FROG HAIR
When: 27 Aug 13 13:24
Well at least it is refreshing to read that somebody is not trying to find the holy grail of gambling.
If you really are gambling purely for the fun of it and not to try to prove the sceptics wrong about  the potential viability of chasing " gradually", then I agree that there is absolutely no harm in what you are doing.
It's just that your minor success thus far might be encouraging in a wrong way to those many out there who are desperate to fund a lifestyle through gambling.
But we're all grown ups I suppose, and people are influenced in the wrong way by your reported results then so be it.
Enjoy.
By:
FINE AS FROG HAIR
When: 27 Aug 13 13:25
"-----and if people are influenced---".
By:
GUSCHER
When: 27 Aug 13 15:53
A very good pint F. I certainly wouldn't want someone else to try and copy my example, and in now way would give up my day job based on a lay & recovery strategy! I just find it interesting and fun to see exactly how long It can last and see if I can get enough profit to make it worth while withdrawing before the collapse! Cheers for your comments and to any other novices, follow oily's tips not mine!!
By:
GUSCHER
When: 28 Aug 13 07:17
F.A.F. Do you happen to know if anyone actually makes any long term profit from laying horses or do all the pro's use backing systems only with/without martingale?
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