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GUSCHER
21 Jun 13 21:40
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Date Joined: 02 Jun 08
| Topic/replies: 139 | Blogger: GUSCHER's blog
Hi,
I am in my 10th month of consecutive profit at the moment! I have been using betfair and various bots for a few years now, & am a real lay bet addict! I have never been in profit for 10 consecutive months before now.  I would like to reiterate and confirm what many of you have been saying in your posts and that is greed! it will be your downfall! I have employed many systems, purchased and my own which have all failed well before now and it's all to do with greed.
I now laybet with recovery BUT & it's a crucial BUT! I have a stake to bank ratio of many thousand to one and a profit stop of 0.3% of bank/day. With recovery even these levels may be far too high (one day last month my recovery went to hundreds  times stake! but still recovered..just!)  The point I'm making is that 0.3 % most days is an incredible return. Most people talk about 2,3,4 or even 5% profit/day, that is far too  risky & unsustainable unless you really know your courses & horses, which I do not. So where on earth could I possibly put my money to get 0.3% compound nearly every day? & although I am only making single digit  quids every day it soon mounts up and it's tax free! At the end of each month I work out how many hours overtime I would have to work in order to take home the same amount and it works out at a fair few! So what better way of earning a few extra quid! So come on  please don't waste all your hard earned cash trying to make loads of dosh overnight, treat your exchange account as a savings or investment tool, keep your bank/stake ratio as low as you can and employ a very gentle recovery mode & just see how steady your bank grows but even with this you have to expect a bit of a bumpy ride along the way.

   One little question I have for those with more experience than me is, how long does a good system have to stay in profit before it can truly be called a successful system?! 

I have been through a 10 cycle recovery twice before totalling over £1000 & had I lost cycle 10 it could have cost me another £1000 which is a huge amount to lose to recover a 75p bet!! So that £1000 liability along with the previous loss could have lost me over 50% of bank! then what would you do? carry on and lose 100% bank!! I don't know I will have to wait and see the next time! but I have never employed a strategy before that has given me  10 months continuous profit & I have tried many in the last 6 or 7 years! Your recovery  must fit well inside your avg S.R  which is 85% for me at the moment. Of course the greed thing is all so important!  use the 10000/1 stake with a daily bail out of 0.3% which may not sound a lot but 10%/month compound is not to be frowned on! This really isn't a system for the faint hearted but it just goes to show why most laying systems with recovery are doomed to fail when unrealistic returns of 2,3,4 %/day are quoted!!  please keep all your expectations real!
Gus

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Replies: 100
By:
sheppy123
When: 21 Jun 13 22:06
Hi Gus, good post!

I think it's OK to win a small amount at a time as long as one losing bet doesn't cancel it all out.

You could back 1.01's all day long and win every one for weeks/months. But then Serena gets beat and you're goosed!!!

To me, unless you're an expert, laying @ big odds is an accident waiting to happen!

Phew! I wish I could be up for one month, nevermind ten so I guess you must be doing something right!

All the best...
By:
JLivermore
When: 22 Jun 13 09:32
You lost a grand trying to recover a 75p bet that day?What kind of savings account does that?
By:
freddiewilliams
When: 22 Jun 13 09:40
another martingaler
By:
GUSCHER
When: 22 Jun 13 09:41
Very good point J but on the other hand I wouldn't have had the grand profit in the first place without this strategy!
By:
sheppy123
When: 22 Jun 13 09:56
I think there's a big difference between being profitable for several months, and several years.

I've learnt a lot by going through horse racing systems. You can be up for several months, and then get completely wiped out which cancels out all that hard work.

It sounds like you've been lucky so far?

I wish you all the best and mean really well! I just don't want you to get stung!
By:
GUSCHER
When: 22 Jun 13 10:02
Thanks Shep, I'm kind of expecting it while holding back on increasing bets/bank ratio so that I can ride through the odd 11/12 recovery cycles.
By:
sheppy123
When: 22 Jun 13 11:27
You're welcome Gus! I am completely obsessed with the idea of trying to find an edge. I've spent many hours creating databases of previous results and stats etc. I'm not desperate for money, it just feels good to win!!!

I've come to the conclusion that there isn't a simple method, it's got to be unique in some way???
By:
cyprusal
When: 22 Jun 13 11:59
gus,the fact that you were risking a grand to recover 75p within 10 months of starting your system is showing you its doomed to failure,lets say on average,your going to be in the same position 3 times in the next 2 years you will have to be pretty good at dodging bullets not to be on the wrong side at least once,also,you have to start at such small stakes that I cant see that your system will be making enough money to make all the sweating worthwhile although like you ive spent countless hours trying simmiler systems and the amount of money won doesn't really come into it,i came to the conclusion many years ago that level stakes punting is the only way to go and if your any good your bank will grow a lot quicker than you think,good luck anyway.
By:
GUSCHER
When: 22 Jun 13 12:09
Thanks Cyprusal,
                   all comments and advice appreciated!
Gus
By:
I.quit.my.country
When: 23 Jun 13 05:50
wise words from cyprus. I stopped reading when I read the word 'recovery'.
By:
GUSCHER
When: 23 Jun 13 19:58
Thanks for all your comments guy's, I take it that very few of you believe you can laybet with recovery and make any long term profit, I am happy to bow to your superior knowledge! but as I know very little about racing I am trying to use statistics and recovery to make a few extra quid long term. As I said at the start of this thread It has paid off so far. If no one thinks it has got any long term potential then I can change it if someone could help me come up with an alternative based on my stat's so far:

Starting bank Aug 12 £2400
profit upto today     £1881
total lay bets        6589
bets won              5674
bets lost              915
total odds of losses   6447

So looking at this if I were laying just at level stakes I would have won 5674 points but lost 6447 points so would have lost 773 points overall. So if we turn that round assuming the avg. back odds are roughly the same as the avg lay odds I.e 7.04 if I were backing my choices at level stakes I would have lost 5674 points but gained 915 @ 7.04 = 6441 points 6441-5674 = 767 points profit. So for my setup all you level stakers would suggest I back at level stakes rather than lay? Have I got this right or all wrong bearing in mind my maths aint too good!!!!?? any help/advice always very much appreciated!!

Regards,
Gus
By:
I.quit.my.country
When: 24 Jun 13 10:40
so you've turned a losing strategy into a winner using chase bets. How long will you last?
By:
sheppy123
When: 24 Jun 13 11:12
Hi Gus!

To me, the word "recovery" scares the crap out of me! It's got disaster written all over it! Things could get very psychological!

There are some golden rules of gambling and one of them is "don't chase your losses".

I've read so many times from pro's that what your aiming for is to not care too much whether you win a bet or lose it cos you know that your system works.

Now, here's the punchline...

I am useless at winning money! I'm a loser! So for this reason, I'm doing a lot of studying, trying out different systems on paper etc. I'm fed up with losing money!!!

You are doing far better than I've ever done, BUT either you know more than you're letting on, or you've just been lucky so far???

Good luck anyway!
By:
ZEALOT
When: 24 Jun 13 16:56
Look for anything between 3-10% profit on turnover , after 300 ish bets .

so after 300 bets risking a ton on each one ---- 1800 would be a nice profit = 6%
By:
kenilworth
When: 24 Jun 13 16:57
Some people would consider 3% a bit ambitious.
By:
GUSCHER
When: 24 Jun 13 16:59
Hi Shep,
         Thanks for your reply I may well have been lucky not to hit 12,13 or 14 recovery cycles which may have well wiped me out but it hasn't happened yet, The emotional side is removed as I use a bot, I couldn't bear to watch £100's fall through my palms!! So I have to use a bot or it would scare the crap out of me too!! Also I think the rules in my original post are very important i.e fitting the recovery bets within my 84.2% S.R If your interested, all I can say is I'm happy to keep you informed and will tell you when it all goes tits up! But am also happy to abandon this in return for some other strategy which is based on stats and sound logic as I promise you I can't use my horse racing knowledge as I have absolutely zero of that!!
Regards
Gus
By:
GUSCHER
When: 24 Jun 13 17:01
I stick with my original and am happy with 0.3% of bank per day
Gus
By:
kenilworth
When: 24 Jun 13 17:06
Gus, how much are you prepared to lose on a bad day, chasing 3%?
By:
JLivermore
When: 24 Jun 13 17:18
The best way to make money out of this strategy would be to run a book on how many days before you blow up.
By:
GUSCHER
When: 24 Jun 13 17:18
Hi K,
     well stupidly I set the bot up to stop at a loss of all my profit since the August start date of £1881 at moment or +0.3% for the day and I must admit has come close but the way I see it it's only profit I never had, but I was lucky not to get hit badly at the start when it was all my own cash!!
By:
GUSCHER
When: 24 Jun 13 17:20
good bet J, maybe I could offset that happening with a side bet to recover my losses!!
By:
JLivermore
When: 24 Jun 13 17:21
now you're talking!
By:
kenilworth
When: 24 Jun 13 20:03
Gus, you say, 'it's only profit I never had', that is incorrect,
as soon as you have the money it's yours, nobody else's. I used to
hear that a lot, 'I'm playing with the bookie's money etc, etc).
It's not, it's YOUR money.
By:
GUSCHER
When: 24 Jun 13 20:18
Yes you are right Ken of course, the point I was really making was that without risking that kind of money I wouldn't of won!! But that's betting!  if that makes sense!
By:
kenilworth
When: 24 Jun 13 20:25
It does make sense, and I get your point.
By:
GUSCHER
When: 25 Jun 13 20:00
End of 10th consecutive month in profit, just starting my 11th! see what happens this month, can I make it a whole year?! Will let you know in 2 months time if anyone's actually interested!!
By:
sheppy123
When: 25 Jun 13 22:38
Good on you Gus! I hope you can carry on! Please keep us updated on your progress.

I'm not a big fan of your methods BUT really, what ever method people use is still gambling. There's no certainties!

What seems lucky is the fact you've made money, so if your system goes pear-shaped which does seem inevitable, you won't have lost everything.

Good luck!
By:
GUSCHER
When: 25 Jun 13 22:42
Thanks for that Shep! Good luck to you and everyone!
By:
Darlo Bantam
When: 25 Jun 13 22:49

Jun 24, 2013 -- 8:18PM, GUSCHER wrote:


Yes you are right Ken of course, the point I was really making was that without risking that kind of money I wouldn't of won!! But that's betting!

By:
Darlo Bantam
When: 25 Jun 13 22:50
GUSCHER • June 24, 2013 8:18 PM BST
Yes you are right Ken of course, the point I was really making was that without risking that kind of money I wouldn't of won!! But that's betting!  if that makes sense!


That is correct, as long as you recognise that profits cannot be judged in isolation and must be judged over a long-term strategy. But do you draw a new line when you're in profit and start again?
By:
Ell
When: 26 Jun 13 00:27
You're fortunate to be winning as your lays were showing a level loss.

Back your selections to 0.5% - 1.0% of your bank.
If nothing else you won't lose the lot in one day.

You know it makes sense.
By:
GUSCHER
When: 26 Jun 13 07:07
HI Ell, thanks for your post but I would have gone bust ages ago using that level of stake to bank ratio with recovery , as I said in my original post I use a ratio 10000/1 or 0.01% with the bot set to stop at a profit of 0.3% only a few quid a day I know but it mounts up and seems to works for me, at the moment!
By:
FINE AS FROG HAIR
When: 26 Jun 13 09:42
I think it may be time to be brutally honest with yourself Gusher.
Ask yourself this.
Do you really think that your methodology is materially different from what millions of others have done or tried before.
Chasing is chasing no matter how you dress it up.
Reducing the stop loss level, or reducing the % of your bank per bet etc etc are extremely obvious things to do, and have been done by so many before you and have been proven conclusively not to work long term.
Now you may have a very long winning run, but eventually a combination of results will occur that will destroy everything you have made before it. I'm afraid that's a given mathematically.
The BEST you can hope for is that you don't lose more than you have won, and history shows that more often than not people chase to a level that ruins them.
So be very careful, but don't ever quit your day job on the basis of past results of a " chasing" system.
By:
Ell
When: 26 Jun 13 11:04
if I were backing my choices at level stakes I would have lost 5674 points but gained 915 @ 7.04 = 6441 points 6441-5674 = 767 points profit. So for my setup all you level stakers would suggest I back at level stakes rather than lay? Yes
By:
JLivermore
When: 26 Jun 13 11:53
"So for my setup all you level stakers would suggest I back at level stakes rather than lay? Yes"

I think you'll need to disclose a little more about how you select your lays to determine the answer here.
By:
GUSCHER
When: 26 Jun 13 15:56
Hi f.a.f  I accept what you say and have expected to get I wiped out at anytime, like i normally do!! I wouldn't give up my day job based on chasing laybets, it's just a bit of fun, well now i'm playing with profit it is!! But is it not possible to make a continuous small profit using lays if you have a huge enough bank  to cover all losses?
By:
FINE AS FROG HAIR
When: 26 Jun 13 16:24
No.
At some time or other you will be required to make a wager that is just too large for the exchange to take.
By:
GUSCHER
When: 26 Jun 13 19:57
That'll be too big for me F.A.F !!  Once my £2000 odd has been taken on the 12/13th recovery cycle I shall bow to the concensus and use my existing funds to back using my same selections but with an odds criteria adjustment to suit backing at level stakes! Never give up eh!! Cheers all for the input!
Gus
By:
sheppy123
When: 26 Jun 13 20:42
It's all part of the learning experience. It's a shame that it takes a disaster before we take action. Phew! The story of my life!!!

I'm hoping that one day, I'll hit on something and it'll make up for all the money I've lost.

I'm sure that'll happen to you too!
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