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TheInvestor2
01 Jan 13 18:23
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Date Joined: 28 May 11
| Topic/replies: 2,502 | Blogger: TheInvestor2's blog
Betfair say no, but I just can't believe this:

2 - 0         2.38    995.00         Back    01-Jan-13 16:28    01-Jan-13 16:29    -995.00
2 - 0         2.28    46.15         Back    01-Jan-13 16:28    01-Jan-13 16:29    -46.15
2 - 0         2.3    1.89         Back    01-Jan-13 16:28    01-Jan-13 16:29    -1.89
2 - 0         2.28    947.90         Back    01-Jan-13 16:28    01-Jan-13 16:29    -947.90
2 - 0         2.28    4.06         Back    01-Jan-13 16:28    01-Jan-13 16:29    -4.06
2 - 0         2.44    1,000.00     Back    01-Jan-13 16:27    01-Jan-13 16:29    -1,000.00

All for full stakes matched more or less simultaneously across a massive odds range. Also got thousands matched in the 2.5 of unders backs and overs lays.

Did anyone else notice anything weird on this match, and what is your opinion on this not being hoovering?

Betfair aren't refunding and said that "Due to the nature of the initial attacking move there were slightly lower odds put into the system by various customers anticipating the potential of a goal but in any case this was about 15 seconds before the penalty was given."

I can only guess that the bets were placed when the foul was made, and the penalty was given some time after that. That would still count as hoovering in my book though. Thoughts?

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Replies: 114
By:
Do wah Diddy
When: 01 Jan 13 18:26
ITS FUNNY  HOW 99 TIMES OUT OF 100 IT SUITS THE LAYERS ,WHEN I LAY OR BACK WHEN SOMEONE SCORES 99 OUT OF THE 100 TIMES IM THE LOOSER
By:
Mr.Angry
When: 01 Jan 13 18:27
Was not hoovering.  Man City won the ball from the Stoke defence - a poor ball played forward.  Took about 6-7 seconds to get into the box, then a couple of seconds before the ref gave the penalty.

I would advise you to stay away from games you're not watching.
By:
Do wah Diddy
When: 01 Jan 13 18:27
YOU BET WITH GOOD WILL AND GET TAKEN TO THE CLEANERS
By:
TheInvestor2
When: 01 Jan 13 18:33
I do watch almost all matches I bet on these days Mr. Angry, including this one, but I miss a lot of what's going on, as I'm focused on my bets much more than the action.

Also, I was under the impression the kind of thing you described can't be profited from, as people putting in their bets anticipating a strong attack will often see their bets hit the suspend wall when they are right?
By:
Mr.Angry
When: 01 Jan 13 18:35
It depends on the attack.
By:
DStyle
When: 01 Jan 13 18:35
i would think as a starting point you'd need to get the full time stamp on when your bets got matched wouldn't you?
By:
TheInvestor2
When: 01 Jan 13 18:44
No point DStyle, bf have already made the decision. Getting matched across such a range of odds virtually instantly on multiple markets for full stakes, is just something that has never happened to me without it being hoovering and getting a refund.
By:
Mr.Angry
When: 01 Jan 13 18:51
That's the name of the game.
Frankly, I'm amazed this is the first time for you.
By:
TheInvestor2
When: 01 Jan 13 19:01
Yeah, sometimes I get a lot matched on a single market just before the goal and it's just bad luck. Sometimes I get that happening on multiple markets, and again, just bad luck (and sometimes it goes the other way and I make money)

But to get done on a wide range of markets and at odds ranging from 2.28 to 2.44 has never happened. Remember as well that this is probably a lot less common outside of the match odds markets.
By:
Trevh
When: 02 Jan 13 00:46
Investor, a good sign of hoovering will often be shown in the graphs, what was the odds range matched? (not just your bets)
By:
Trevh
When: 02 Jan 13 00:52
Btw it sounds like hoovering to me, the graphs might tell, but a professional hoovering syndicate would just hoover the big lumps, so if there was no big lumps after yours the graphs would still look realistic.
By:
JLivermore
When: 02 Jan 13 08:02
Is there any way to actually PROVE the sequence of events.

I was thinking you could listen to the radio commentary again and use the time sync on the hourly(?) news to work out the exact time of goal... but it's not on iplayer (BBC Radio Stoke played the radio commentary).

Also - do you have the time of your matched bets (to the second)?  I can help you get this if not (API).
By:
TheInvestor2
When: 02 Jan 13 11:28
JLivermore, I'll email you details and a graph etc.
By:
TheInvestor2
When: 02 Jan 13 11:34
Trevh, in the correct score market there is a colossal dip before the goal. Betfair said it was just people taking bets at odds wildly different from the current market in anticipation of 'an attacking move'. Let's face it though, even with a dangerous attack, the chances of scoring are rarely anything remotely close to 100%, and there is a risk of them not getting matched due to the suspend.

I never get some joker taking my bets 10 or 20 ticks away from the market and being wrong.
By:
nbdbscms
When: 02 Jan 13 11:40
Probably due to slightly slow suspend by Betfair.It definitely looks like someone took advantage of the situation.Be amazed if you get them to refund-given the amounts involved wish you all the best in pursuing the matter.
By:
U.A.
When: 02 Jan 13 11:41
I'm impressed that you can get your bets refunded when you are hoovered. When I phoned up the one time it happened to me I got a "no they are not cheats, yeah it happens but they pay more in charges so it ok" answer. Because they will more than likely be paying pc.

Phew I thought, i may have been swindled by these cheats and lost money but as long as betfair don't lose out that's the main thing. It was a huge relief to hear that and i promptly went to bed and had a nice long relaxing sleep.
By:
Darlo Bantam
When: 02 Jan 13 11:43
I never get some joker taking my bets 10 or 20 ticks away from the market and being wrong.

This. It happens all too frequently for my liking. It's one of the reasons, I've really cut back my in-play betting on football. There's far too much hoovering going on for my liking and it appears little done about it. Even when you've complained on this occasion, and it seems a fair complaint, nothing is done.
By:
TheInvestor2
When: 02 Jan 13 15:44
Just looking the replay.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v0L2m3USY0Q

Looks like the tackle was outside the box and shouldn't have been a penalty.
By:
Mr.Angry
When: 02 Jan 13 20:14
Massive hoovering at Anfield tonight, even with the 8 second delay.
By:
TheInvestor2
When: 02 Jan 13 21:24
.
http://sports.betfair.com/football/marketactivity?id=1.107810478&selectionId=1222345

exactly Mr. Angry. Goal disallowed. Look at that graph and tell me there is no hoovering. It's blatant and undeniable.
By:
TheInvestor2
When: 02 Jan 13 21:27
1.7x to 1.5ish. That is not customer putting their bets in slightly lower in anticipation of an attack....
By:
SHAPESHIFTER
When: 02 Jan 13 21:42

Jan 2, 2013 -- 9:24PM, TheInvestor2 wrote:


.http://sports.betfair.com/football/marketactivity?id=1.107810478&selectionId=1222345exactly Mr. Angry. Goal disallowed. Look at that graph and tell me there is no hoovering. It's blatant and undeniable.


I liken 'hoovering' to UFO's, tbh.

Call it years of watching graphs, flow of money.

I have seen this graph before.  I've seen it in horse racing dozens of times.

I have seen it at off's when a horse has drifted and just prior to in-running, someone who has laid at (example prices) 5.1 and the price has drifted out to 6.4.  They will then back "Down to" 5.20 to close their bet and will grab everything from 6.2 down to 5.20 till filled.

I have "seen" layers poised over tennis who have laid thousands and at even a hint of a goal going against their position, will hit the button to grab everything down to a price.  If it breaks through, the spike appears.  As well, people assume it is one person.  It is not.

Also, if people suddenly pull money out of the market, a spike will appear as people OR bots chase to fill.

CANCEL is instantaneous and quick to do.  If you think a play is going against you, don't watch the television, hit the button.  You can always go back into the market.

.

By:
SHAPESHIFTER
When: 02 Jan 13 21:44
Also, players call this hoovering.

Question: if you don't want a position matched, why are you leaving it up?
By:
TheInvestor2
When: 02 Jan 13 21:46
Nope shapeshifter, doesn't happen in big football matches. A 2.5 goals market NEVER goes from 1.7x to 1.5 within a second just because a few people 'pull money from the market' or other technical reasons. It only happens when people with a fast feed know what has happened before betfair suspend the market.
By:
Contrarian2
When: 02 Jan 13 21:51
Question: if you don't want a position matched, why are you leaving it up?

Do you have no understanding of the need for management of the football markets?

Because the odds move so dramatically if there is a goal/penalty/red card, Betfair pledge to attempt to suspend betting when it appears that one of those three has occurred.

We leave bets up that we want taken, assuming that the score/red card is as it currently stands. We don't want those bets taken if the score changes!!
By:
Contrarian2
When: 02 Jan 13 21:52
The hoovering in the Liverpool game was blatant. Betfair have to do something about this, otherwise the markets will suffer.
By:
Mr.Angry
When: 02 Jan 13 21:56
Not sure which goals that graph is referring to, Investor, but the first 2 Liverpool goals were from breakaway attacks - both looked dead cert goals.  So possibly not hoovering.

Not sure about the disallowed goals - wasn't watching.
By:
SHAPESHIFTER
When: 02 Jan 13 21:59

Jan 2, 2013 -- 9:46PM, TheInvestor2 wrote:


Nope shapeshifter, doesn't happen in big football matches. A 2.5 goals market NEVER goes from 1.7x to 1.5 within a second just because a few people 'pull money from the market' or other technical reasons. It only happens when people with a fast feed know what has happened before betfair suspend the market.


I think that might come down to 'in-play' strategy. 

I tend to trade 3.5 market a lot.  I have seen 'anticipation' (usually layers pulling bets out rather than backers coming down). 

I think those betting larger sums play the 1X2 market thus the push to match X K's is more blatant than me hob-nobbing in the 3.5.

By:
Contrarian2
When: 02 Jan 13 22:02
Mr Angry,



The graph is the over 3.5 odds. The spike down from 1.78 to 1.5ish occurred in about the 73rd minute when Liverpool put the ball in the net, but it was subsequently disallowed (offside). This wasn't a breakaway attack.
By:
TheInvestor2
When: 02 Jan 13 22:02
Mr.Angry 02 Jan 13 21:56 Joined: 05 Jan 11 | Topic/replies: 3,493 | Blogger: Mr.Angry's blog
Not sure which goals that graph is referring to, Investor, but the first 2 Liverpool goals were from breakaway attacks - both looked dead cert goals.  So possibly not hoovering.

Not sure about the disallowed goals - wasn't watching.


I thought you said yourself in a earlier post there was massive hoovering in this game?

There was a disallowed goal and someone took the market from 1.7x to 1.5ish. I wasn't watching the game (wasn't even betting on it, as I was doing Chelsea and Newcastle), but just that stat tells me enough.
By:
SHAPESHIFTER
When: 02 Jan 13 22:08

Jan 2, 2013 -- 9:51PM, Contrarian2 wrote:


Question: if you don't want a position matched, why are you leaving it up?Do you have no understanding of the need for management of the football markets?Because the odds move so dramatically if there is a goal/penalty/red card, Betfair pledge to attempt to suspend betting when it appears that one of those three has occurred.We leave bets up that we want taken, assuming that the score/red card is as it currently stands. We don't want those bets taken if the score changes!!


Have a very good understanding.

My point is, you have laid at 2.20 and the market is now out to 2.50.  You don't consider 2.55 value based on the score but do consider 2.20 value (as would I).  But with several ticks between you and the market, the only way I see you being matched is:

a) someone closing their position with a huge sum and having to chunk down
b) people anticipating wrongly and reaching down
c) people anticipating correctly and reaching down

Two of those positions go against you, (A) if the game turns against you and (C) if they anticipated correctly.

It happens all the time in tennis. 

The "mis-management" means Betfair not closing the market before the clock would run down.

I feel (A) creates this quite often.

By:
Darlo Bantam
When: 02 Jan 13 22:11
Except 2.55 isn't value when the person taking your bet knows the score is different to the one where you put your money in. And the score where you expect the market to be matched at. Football is unique in terms of in-play betting and if Betfair can't manage the markets correctly, then it will suffocate the markets.
By:
Ell
When: 03 Jan 13 01:25
Betfair aren't refunding and said that "Due to the nature of the initial attacking move there were slightly lower odds put into the system by various customers anticipating the potential of a goal but in any case this was about 15 seconds before the penalty was given."

I've looked at the video of the 3rd goal.
71:56 Poor headed clearance
72:01 Foul on edge of penalty area.
72:03 Ref points to the spot.

Their quote of 15 seconds is rubbish.
It was at best a promising position but certainly not a clear chance.
7 seconds at the most, probably less.
By:
Contrarian2
When: 03 Jan 13 10:50
Ell,

Presumably BF mean that the relevant bets were submitted 15 seconds before the penalty was given. This is possible, of course, but unlikely if you are suggesting that the ball was nowhere near the penalty area at that time.
By:
viva el presidente!
When: 03 Jan 13 12:14
part of the problem is they don't seem to be working off real time pictures.

it's a bit of a grey area, I'd say. for instance, say everyone's up for a late corner, someone loses possession on the edge of the box and the defending team run it up the pitch and score. if that takes six seconds and someone legitimately sees this might happen and fires in a bet right at the start of the process, is that hoovering? no - because when they bet none of the things that trigger a suspend have yet happened. but it is a reaction to a specific event.

but, what if in the above scenario BF have an 8 second delay and are working off 2 second delayed pictures themselves? and it takes the suspend mammal another second to actually hit the button? now we have a good faith sharp bet which is matched 9 seconds after the move starts on an 8 second delay. what should its status be?

I've got no solutions to that question, I'm just saying it's sometimes less clearcut than it looks.
By:
Ell
When: 03 Jan 13 12:24
The ball was inside the Man City half 15 seconds before the goal.
Sometimes you can see a promising build up several seconds before a goal is scored but not in this case.

If they'd said the bets were placed 15 seconds before the goal you wouldn't question it.
To give a convoluted response instead seems suspicious.
By:
[x] These checkboxes suck
When: 03 Jan 13 18:26
As far as I know Betfair don't actually have someone in the office who suspends they use the runningball feed to do it for them.
By:
viva el presidente!
When: 03 Jan 13 19:00
that's interesting, checkboxes. thanks.
By:
brendanuk1
When: 04 Jan 13 00:05
sounds like they are open to "the wire" scam from The Sting if their using third party suspends Laugh
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