Jan 2, 2013 -- 3:24PM, TheInvestor2 wrote:
.http://sports.betfair.com/football/marketactivity?id=1.107810478&selectionId=1222345exactly Mr. Angry. Goal disallowed. Look at that graph and tell me there is no hoovering. It's blatant and undeniable.
I liken 'hoovering' to UFO's, tbh.
Call it years of watching graphs, flow of money.
I have seen this graph before. I've seen it in horse racing dozens of times.
I have seen it at off's when a horse has drifted and just prior to in-running, someone who has laid at (example prices) 5.1 and the price has drifted out to 6.4. They will then back "Down to" 5.20 to close their bet and will grab everything from 6.2 down to 5.20 till filled.
I have "seen" layers poised over tennis who have laid thousands and at even a hint of a goal going against their position, will hit the button to grab everything down to a price. If it breaks through, the spike appears. As well, people assume it is one person. It is not.
Also, if people suddenly pull money out of the market, a spike will appear as people OR bots chase to fill.
CANCEL is instantaneous and quick to do. If you think a play is going against you, don't watch the television, hit the button. You can always go back into the market.
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Jan 2, 2013 -- 3:46PM, TheInvestor2 wrote:
Nope shapeshifter, doesn't happen in big football matches. A 2.5 goals market NEVER goes from 1.7x to 1.5 within a second just because a few people 'pull money from the market' or other technical reasons. It only happens when people with a fast feed know what has happened before betfair suspend the market.
I think that might come down to 'in-play' strategy.
I tend to trade 3.5 market a lot. I have seen 'anticipation' (usually layers pulling bets out rather than backers coming down).
I think those betting larger sums play the 1X2 market thus the push to match X K's is more blatant than me hob-nobbing in the 3.5.
Jan 2, 2013 -- 3:51PM, Contrarian2 wrote:
Question: if you don't want a position matched, why are you leaving it up?Do you have no understanding of the need for management of the football markets?Because the odds move so dramatically if there is a goal/penalty/red card, Betfair pledge to attempt to suspend betting when it appears that one of those three has occurred.We leave bets up that we want taken, assuming that the score/red card is as it currently stands. We don't want those bets taken if the score changes!!
Have a very good understanding.
My point is, you have laid at 2.20 and the market is now out to 2.50. You don't consider 2.55 value based on the score but do consider 2.20 value (as would I). But with several ticks between you and the market, the only way I see you being matched is:
a) someone closing their position with a huge sum and having to chunk down
b) people anticipating wrongly and reaching down
c) people anticipating correctly and reaching down
Two of those positions go against you, (A) if the game turns against you and (C) if they anticipated correctly.
It happens all the time in tennis.
The "mis-management" means Betfair not closing the market before the clock would run down.
I feel (A) creates this quite often.
Jan 4, 2013 -- 5:05AM, TheInvestor2 wrote:
I think that 1) It's extremely unlikely that someone / some people would take such a wide range of odds merely based on a promising attack, taking out multiple markets simultaneously for bucket loads.2) Immediately after the same thing happens at every goal in the Liverpool match, especially the disallowed one. Anyone moving the price 20 ticks with a good chance would go broke double quick. They're blatantly placing their bets after they know what's happened. If someone is betting what must be tens of thousands overall, and doing it repeatedly on UK untelevised matches, my money is on them being a fast pic merchant rather than a lucky mug.The City v Stoke match was on BBC radio stoke. I think Betfair might have to start actively scouting for sources like that for feeds (as I should too!).
If a 'big player' is closing a position, 20 ticks is very possible. They would not go broke doing this.
ALSO: you are focused on the moment. How was the minute/two minutes leading up to the penalty? Would a 'big player' be tempted to close green?
Jan 4, 2013 -- 11:44AM, SHAPESHIFTER wrote:
Jan 4, 2013 -- 11:05AM, TheInvestor2 wrote:I think that 1) It's extremely unlikely that someone / some people would take such a wide range of odds merely based on a promising attack, taking out multiple markets simultaneously for bucket loads.2) Immediately after the same thing happens at every goal in the Liverpool match, especially the disallowed one. Anyone moving the price 20 ticks with a good chance would go broke double quick. They're blatantly placing their bets after they know what's happened. If someone is betting what must be tens of thousands overall, and doing it repeatedly on UK untelevised matches, my money is on them being a fast pic merchant rather than a lucky mug.The City v Stoke match was on BBC radio stoke. I think Betfair might have to start actively scouting for sources like that for feeds (as I should too!).If a 'big player' is closing a position, 20 ticks is very possible. They would not go broke doing this.ALSO: you are focused on the moment. How was the minute/two minutes leading up to the penalty? Would a 'big player' be tempted to close green?
Bit lucky to be closing a position right on a goal. Repeatedly.
Jan 4, 2013 -- 4:04PM, Coachbuster wrote:
Investor- from a hoovering point of view there is more to it than anticipating moves via digital broadcasting i guess.This lot are probably at the ground with their i-pads etc .Wasn't there a group hoovering in Spain or Mexico ? made a fair whack before getting found out .Yeah ,it goes on - BF need a quicker feed ,can't be hard on most big games .
Quick feed? I thought that's what the x-second delay was supposed to be for. I can't see much point in the delay on most sports since the only suspend is right at the end - all the delay does is actually limit Joe Public Punter. But for football, the delay should help the punter. But if the market can't be suspended within the correct delay, then the delay should be increased.
Jan 5, 2013 -- 6:54PM, [x] These checkboxes suck wrote:
"If a 'big player' is closing a position, 20 ticks is very possible. They would not go broke doing this."I can guarantee you, they would go broke
Lay team 1.80 £30000
market moves out to 2.40
Layer decides to close completely. Targets 2.00 to grab everything from 2.40 down to 2.00 plugging 27,000 into the market
Minimum profit if matched down to 2.00 = 3,000
Jan 6, 2013 -- 1:46PM, TheInvestor2 wrote:
^ The question is why would they not get out over a period of say 1-2 minutes and get an average price close to market 2.4, instead of the nonsensically poor one they get taking out the market dozens of ticks deep? In a decent match with good liquidity it just doesn't make sense to behave like that.
TheInvestor2. It is a simple example of where a trader can leave up his money 2.40 and above BUT if he is watching the match and/or deciding it is time to close off, he will close out.
I have seen individuals work this way. So I find that on this thread, posters are dismissing this strategy since they feel it isn't 'profitable' in the long term.
Players that employ this tactic don't use it ALL THE TIME. It is just one move to close out.
Posters on this thread seem to be too rigid in their thinking. They are also assuming the spike is caused by one person reacting in a certain way.
I, myself, use it for horse racing/in -running. I will lay a position then set prices to close. If, while watching the race, I feel it is not unfolding the way I thought (pace, dangers not performing as expected, fallers, etc), I will fire a price in that will obtain a percentage profit but will sometimes cut through the prices to get matched.
SHAPESHIFTER
seen it all since 2003
Jan 6, 2013 -- 1:46PM, TheInvestor2 wrote:
^ The question is why would they not get out over a period of say 1-2 minutes and get an average price close to market 2.4, instead of the nonsensically poor one they get taking out the market dozens of ticks deep? In a decent match with good liquidity it just doesn't make sense to behave like that.
"In a decent match with good liquidity it just doesn't make sense to behave like that."
It does if you are watching a match and feel the momentum has the potential of turning against your position
The number of times I have been watching a football game or a tennis match and feel it is time to close out is numerous. Sometimes I am right, relieved as a goal goes in literally seconds after I have closed out. Other times, yes, I could have rode it out for more profit but a steady green book from event to event is still a profit.
Jan 14, 2013 -- 2:20PM, Contrarian2 wrote:
What about giving betfair users themselves the possibility to "vote" for a suspend. If there is a quorum of votes then the match gets suspended automatically. If you use your vote frivolously then it gets taken awayAn interesting idea, but, I fear, massively open to abuse.
Um, abuse is an understatement.
Jan 14, 2013 -- 3:46PM, RioGrande wrote:
a revolution is coming! the tables are starting to turn
Double zero....the table is now open.