Question for the Pros.

get as much money from wherever you can and bet as much as you can on each selection

a 16% profit on even money bets over hundreds of selections makes you the best gambler in the world and you won't need to worry about staking plans

on the other hand the figures could just be made up........

why bet so little if you are expecting a 16% edge from each slection.  Seems crazy.

I;d say an edge is the % return on your stakes , not the % increase in bank.

Though if you've had 100 X £50 bets and returned £58 on average per bet than that would be a 16% edge per bet.

That would be pretty miraculous IMO and i wouldn't expect it to continue.

Well amazing or not, that is the figure.

It's based not on getting exceptional prices. In fact it's based on whatever the available prices were at the time.

The profit is from getting more than 60 selections correct out of every hundred.

That might sound a lot. But if you consider that even a coin-tossing monkey could regularly get between 40 and 50 right from a 100, then its really not that amazing. Just takes some effort.

It amazes me. What sports/market was it?

1% of you bank is a b*llocks level to be staking on such a bet.  You should be throwing far far more at each one.

Maybe one of the Kelly boys will tell us how much, but it has to be miles higher than 1% if you are winning even money shots well over 60% of the time

you ask about boosting profits - well just throw as much money as you have at it - that will boost profits

TheVis, Tobermory:

I'm no expert in betting. That's why I'm asking for help.

I understand your incredulity. But the reality is I do know sport, and I do understand maths and odds. It's applying it all to a gambling system that I'm not experienced with.

Selections are on football and tennis mostly but include all sports at some time or other.

For example yesterday's selections were Liverpool-Wigan over 2,5 goals. Coventry to beat Portsmouth. Swansea-Everton under 2,5 goals. Watford-Ipswich over 2,5 goals. Real Madrid-Sociedad over 3,5 goals. Arsenal to beat Villa. Obviously a good day, as all were winners. Odds varied from 1.4 to 2,4.

Today's selections. Zenit-Rubin under 2,5 goals. Rayo Vallecano - Villarreal over 2,5 goals.( This one is currently playing and I went 5 times normal stake on this selection as was very confident. I do this occasionally. Currently only 1-0)

Also today - tennis, Tipsarevich to beat Dolgopolov, Cibulkova to beat Zheng, Venus Williams to beat Wozniak, and Nishikori to beat Rosol.


Zenit, Cubulkova and Tipsarevich already winners. But Villarreal, Williams, and Nishikori still to complete so could still go wrong.

In fact Williams is losing, and Vallecano - Villarreal is in the balance, so here come some losers to balance things out a bit.

I can pick enough winners. It's knowing how to turn that into profit, as I understand that that the wrong staking plan, or betting to much at the wrong time, can destroy in the greatest tipster.

For example, if Vallecano-Villareal doesn't go over 2,5 at 5xnormal stake, then that would seem a great example of terrible bank management.

kelly says bet edge divided by 'to one odds'.

so a 16% edge / 1 (at evens) => 16% stake.

but thats just in theory. 

If you made 100 consecutive kelly bets of 16% your expected bankroll would be £18082... that would make you a pretty good gambler

I don't see how this miracle system or whatever you care to call it can "include all sports at some time". How can you have an edge over more than a couple of sports?

TheVis,

It's not a completely systematical edge.

I can only explain it through a lifetime of sports knowledge and careful study of statistics. There is no exact formula.

For example, my biggest selection of the year was the Giants to win the Superbowl getting +3,5. Followed by France getting a big head-start in the rugby world cup final, which if I'm correct, I remember us debating at the time. I was tipping France before the final, with the handicap, big-time, and you were asking why I didn't want to back them to win outright?

Also, at 16 percent stake, how long a losing streak could I survive?

For example, in the last 100 bets trialled, the first 10 won, but were followed later by 5 losers in a row. That sounds painful at 16 percent per bet...and I think would reduce the bank to about 17 percent of what it was before the run?

why don't you just do something simple like form 100pt bank do a flat 5 or 10 points per bet, then when you bank increases by a certain amount e.g doubles, then up the stakes and keep going like that.

You'll soon make plenty that way and it will not be long at all before you main problem is in getting on.

yeah you are being greedy

h-bomb, 60 winners out of a hundred runners at odds of evens gives you a 20% edge. Assuming a one unit stake, you have 3,000 notional units of profit against 2,000 units of loss, or a net win of 1,000 units on a total stake of 5,000.

Let's say your picks at even money have a 58% chance of winning (a 16% edge). Optimal betting according to the Kelly criterion says you should place 16% of your bankroll on each selection or just under 800 pounds of a 5,000 betting bank.

But if you have that kind of edge, it doesn't matter what you bet--betting anything and growing your bankroll will see you become a betting multimillionaire. You can google 'Kelly criterion' of an explanation of how stakes are calculated given a certain edge.

I concur with everyone else that your win rate is amazing and that if it's genuine you should take advantage of it before the opportunity closes.

Stake	Bets		Won	Lost		Bank Start	Bank End
£1,000	20		12	8		£20,600
£1,200	20		12	8		£24,600	£29,400
£1,400	20		12	8		£29,400	£35,000
£1,700	20		12	8		£35,000	£41,800
£2,000	20		12	8		£41,800	£49,800
£2,500	20		12	8		£49,800	£59,800
£2,800	20		12	8		£59,800	£71,000
£3,000	20		12	8		£71,000	£83,000
£3,500	20		12	8		£83,000	£97,000
£4,000	20		12	8		£97,000	£113,000

That would be the result of 360 bets from 5k start, so less than a year

Just recently, I opened a Twitter account. To be honest I despise Twitter. But I wanted a way of documenting my bets, without being able to change them, and without getting the abuse you'd get on the Betfair forum.

In all fairness, my posting is a bit of a mess, but it gives you an idea. My first post was on January 18th. From then until this morning, I'd posted 80 tips in just over 2 months. So I suppose that makes Tobermory's projection of 360 bets quite possible.

My staking has been all over the place, but I've just calculated the profit from those selections and it comes, accounting for commission on the Betfair tips (some were Bet365 prices), to 16 percent.