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h-bomb
25 Mar 12 17:56
Joined:
Date Joined: 24 Feb 11
| Topic/replies: 958 | Blogger: h-bomb's blog
If someone estimated their profit over a year as 16 percent, and then trialled hundreds of bets at around average odds of evens, which again produced (after deducting commission) exactly a profit of 16 percent overall, then presumably that person's edge would be 16 percent.

Assuming that this is the case, a 16 percent edge, and that the selections are on a wide range of sports bets (excluding horse racing) then what staking plan would you recommend for that person to use in order to maximise the profit from their selections?

Let's say that the initial betting bank is 5000 dollars.

Regards.

H-Bomb.
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Report h-bomb April 1, 2012 10:39 PM BST
P.S.

Obviously this is just a very small experiment, nowhere near conclusive, and probably very tedious for those of you who already know all about this stuff. Perhaps some other novices like me will have gained something from it though.

It certainly helped me learn a few things. Thanks to those from early on, who gave some helpful advice.
Report tobermory April 1, 2012 11:21 PM BST
Are you not continuing after that great start Confused
Report MUSER April 2, 2012 2:20 AM BST
I for one didnt find it boring, was well explained, im taking your word about the maths of it all, much better thread than 99% on these forums, gl
Report TheVis April 2, 2012 8:24 AM BST
I think you should keep it going, at least to say 100 bets.  At the current rate that shouldn't take long and you may well be done just after Easter.
Report h-bomb April 2, 2012 8:12 PM BST
Ok. But my hearts not really in it now. I'll chuck in a few more though.


Bet 13: Goals over 2,5 @ 1.87

My estimate 1,50

currenlty 0-0 after 11 mins.
Report h-bomb April 2, 2012 8:15 PM BST
Bet 14: Tennis : McHale to beat Wozniack  @ 1.97

My estimate 1.75

currenlty 4-5 in 1st set.
Report h-bomb April 2, 2012 8:23 PM BST
Bet 15: Seville v Mallorca

Goals under 1,50  @ 3.10

My estimate 2.00

currently 0-0 after 20 mins.
Report h-bomb April 2, 2012 9:34 PM BST
Bet 16: Blackburn Man Utd goals over 0.5 @ 2.00

My estimate 1.80.

0-0 after 75 mins.
Report h-bomb April 2, 2012 9:54 PM BST
Bet 17: Rodionova to beat Czink @ 1.57

My estimate 1.20
Report h-bomb April 2, 2012 9:55 PM BST
sorry that price should have been 1.43 not 1.57
Report h-bomb April 2, 2012 10:13 PM BST
Bet 18: McHale to beat Wozniack @ 4.30

My estimate 3.00
Report h-bomb April 2, 2012 10:15 PM BST
That's currently in 3rd set by the way. Went in again on McHale who was a break down.
Report h-bomb April 2, 2012 10:18 PM BST
Bet 19: Almirante Brown v Rosario : goals over 2.5 @ 1.71

My estimate 1.50

currently 2-0 after 60 mins.
Report h-bomb April 2, 2012 10:52 PM BST
Made 7 selections with no research. The result 3 winners, 4 losers. Which clearly shows the value of making an effort in your betting. Or, lay your selections, if guessing, could be a profitable idea Happy

Anyway, like I said, my heart's not in this for now. I'll be back in a few weeks with a new thread, using real money, and putting the theory into practical applicationHappy
Report askari1 April 5, 2012 2:17 PM BST
Many people's motivations for keeping a thread is to ensure discipline in all their selections. Winners get a following and end up being able to trade, but then if you're winning (esp. when not paying comm.) why would you want to?

With the Albion Research Kelly calculator, all you need to do is to estimate the percentage chance of a bet winning. They've made it simpler for you than working out implied chances from your own odds.

h-bomb, if you want to, come back; otherwise, try to invest the same amount of time researching each of yr bets and be suspicious when yr estimate is unusually out-of-line. Gl
Report loadedgimp April 9, 2012 5:01 PM BST
Profit on Bank - 50%
    114 markets/trades
    16 losing markets -

6 x Orginal Bet Won        £9.43  - around £107 staked
4 x Losing Bet Position    £8.05
2 x Menial Losses        £2
1 x 1/5 SR Bet        £5
1 x Stupid Bet        £15
2 x Loss on Man United lays    £10.75
Report loadedgimp April 9, 2012 5:06 PM BST
For me it is all about picking winners, all about strike rate.
For example - I tipped today
Leading by 1 goal - Southampton 1.28 (0-2) & Everton 1.28 (4-0)
Leading by 2 goals - Lausanne 1.5 (1-3)
The total return above is just above 100% so £50 stakes would have seen £50 profit in 3 bets.
If the prices had been 1.05 no I would not have backed them.  But I backed these regardless of price - I just bet on what the market offered because I believed they would win.
I look at 1.28 and think I need 4 winning bets to profit well before I can afford to lose 1.  So strike-rate and picking winners is more important than whether the price I am taking is value or not.
If I bet in a different manner I would assume value is more important.
Report Still standing April 9, 2012 5:21 PM BST
Of course that is the way to go loaded, but just wait for the smug value bettors to come on here and tell us we're completely wrong.  Hey, it's been working for me  since I joined BF.  A winning bet has value.  Always has, always will.  Now to completely go against what I just said, a winning bet @ 1.05 may not be a good bet.  All bets are not to be bet blindly, but a winner is a winner is a winner.
Report JLivermore April 9, 2012 5:31 PM BST
"A winning bet has value"... this is an awesome quote
Report TheInvestor2 April 9, 2012 5:51 PM BST
A value bet has value
Report Still standing April 9, 2012 6:08 PM BST
Yes Jliver, it is an awesome quote, but even more awesome is

but just wait for the smug value bettors to come on here and tell us we're completely wrong

As predicted.  Another prediction : more smugness to follow
Report JLivermore April 9, 2012 6:27 PM BST
But why this: "a winning bet @ 1.05 may not be a good bet"?

In all seriousness, I would have thought that all winning bets are good bets.
Report TheInvestor2 April 9, 2012 6:29 PM BST
Still standing
Date Joined: 05 Jun 04
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When: 09 Apr 12 18:08
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Yes Jliver, it is an awesome quote, but even more awesome is

but just wait for the smug value bettors to come on here and tell us we're completely wrong

As predicted.  Another prediction : more smugness to follow


Yes, betting on that would have been a value bet at any price!
Report Still standing April 9, 2012 6:51 PM BST
In all seriousness JLiver, everybody when they make a bet does a calculation before they bet.  Value bettors call it value, I call it a good ( or bad ) bet.  It's just that in my experience, the value bets boys are way to holier then thou.  It's my way, or you're an asrehole.  Smug to the nth degree.  You definition of value might not be the same as mine.  I don't care, but you like most VB's seem to care way to much.  There really is no argument here.  Your sense of value seems to be more strict then mine.  I've been here 8 years doing it my way, results are more important then absolute value to me.  I've seen too many Value bettors hold out for that 1.92, passing on the 1.90.  1.92 is probably the absolute correct minimum value, if judged over 10,000 bets.  I'll take the 1,90 if I think it's a good bet.  If it loses, the Value boys come on and say what a mug I was.  I would rather loosen my standards and be 55% over hundreds of bets then be a tightsas and go 60% with much less bets.  There is a US site called professionalgambler that shows this clearly. 
Bottom line: no problem with strict value bettors, we all have our own way.  VB just tend to be Godlike,and aren't afraid to tell you so.
Report TheVis April 9, 2012 7:05 PM BST
OK so one bettor passes as he doesn't get 1.92. You are happy with 1.90, but at what stage do you not back your selection?

Surely you are doing the same as the value bettors unless of course you will back anything you think is going to win at odds down to 1.01?
Report TheInvestor2 April 9, 2012 7:54 PM BST
So still standing, correct minimum value is 1.92 'over 10,000 bets' then how can a 1.9 back be a good bet?
Report h-bomb April 9, 2012 9:50 PM BST
Just completed 100 sample bets. Outcome 59 winners, 41 losers. Average odds approx. evens.

This suggests 18 percent edge, which seems to tally with my previous samples stated at the beginning of this thread which suggested precisely 16 percent.

Yes, I know, everyone keeps saying it's impossible. But the samples keep on producing it.

I'm going to play safer than that though and proceed using Askari1's wonderful Albion Research Kelly Calculator.

I'll return tomorrow, and we'll see how things go.
Report Lex April 10, 2012 11:15 AM BST
Say you have a selection process thats you stick to but you only bet when you have 'value'
while you wait for value you miss winners. The gains you make over the long term betting your selections thats are not 'value' will be the same as those you have waited for that have value. It all evens out.

is this not true? Confused
Report JLivermore April 10, 2012 11:32 AM BST
Answer will depend on who you are asking... imho:

while you wait for value you miss winners.
>> yes, but you will also miss losers

The gains you make over the long term betting your selections thats are not 'value'
>> you won't make long term gains unless you are capturing 'value'

The gains you make over the long term betting your selections thats are not 'value' will be the same as those you have waited for that have value. It all evens out.
>> Why do you think this should be true?  After all you could have taken 1m bets where you waited for 'value' and made a ton of £ and 10k where you did not have 'value'.  Why should they equal out?
Report Lex April 10, 2012 11:55 AM BST
thats why I asked the question.

21 races a day
bet all 6 favs and 2 win
or wait for 3 value favs and 1 wins.

its about strike rate needing to be better than the odds? Confused
Report JLivermore April 10, 2012 12:04 PM BST
What's a fav?

IF you mean your favoured horse then aren't they all value favs?
Report DFCIRONMAN April 10, 2012 12:15 PM BST
It does not EVEN OUT.......................

ROI reflects how much profit you can make from bets.

If someone has a 16% ROI ...then on £10,000 staked they can make £1,600 profit T they have the stats to support this....giving confidence re the strategies they apply)

If someone backs favs....and don't take account of the odds / value in odds....then their ROI is very very likely to be far lower than 16%. Thus on £10,000 staked they will make less than £1,600 profit. IT DOES NOT EVEN OUT!

Anyone can pick winners.......but can they make a profit backing the way they do?

What ROI do you make Lex? ( I suspect you don't keep record of bets, so will have no idea re your ROI. If my suspicions are not correct, then I apologise......but your assumption re " It all evens out" suggests you don't!.
Report Lex April 10, 2012 12:22 PM BST
I was asking the question not making an assumption.

and I wasnt talking ROI either, and Ive no idea what mine is - I bet for fun not profit.

my point is that it evens out unless your strike rate is better than the odds you get, and that it not value that is skill

yes ? Confused
Report DFCIRONMAN April 10, 2012 12:25 PM BST
If you have a way of weighing up reasonably accurately the CHANCES OF A HORSE WINNING, then compare its "true" chances of winning against the odds available, then you can "find value" bets.

If your method works, then you will achieve a good ROI. If not, then you will probably lose money.

Most punters don't have such a method of weighing up whether there is VALUE IN ODDS for their selection. Most punters lose.
Report DFCIRONMAN April 10, 2012 12:30 PM BST
Your language is too slack Lex....so no idea what you mean!
Report DFCIRONMAN April 10, 2012 12:39 PM BST
Strike-rate can be low, relatively speaking, but your ROI can be high, relatively speaking.

Strike-rate alone does not mean you will make a profit, especially when backing favs.

Your 2 winners out of 6 could be at ODDS ON odds..........so you lose on 6 bets.

Your 1 winner out of 3 can be at 5-2 SP...so you make a profit of 0.50 on 3 bets.

The odds are important......

If you just bet for fun....you don't mind losing....as long as you get some wins you are "happy".

If trying to make a profit , then selecting at value odds are essential to have a chance of achieveing profit.
Report Lex April 10, 2012 12:46 PM BST
I think strike rate must be better than the price you bet at = skill.
value is waiting for a horse that is at  a better price than you think it should be, and while waiting you miss out.
Report DFCIRONMAN April 10, 2012 12:50 PM BST
You don't have to wait long with horse racing......value in most races is there to be found.....This is when you truly have "skill".DevilLaugh
Report DFCIRONMAN April 10, 2012 12:55 PM BST
Take the 2 rated races below......the first race the fav is rated in top 3 and is at VALUE odds ( a 2-1 shot at odds of 4-1SP).

The 2nd race the fav is a 5-1 SP shot....but rated 12th in a 13 runner field ....There is no value in backing it ....only laying it!

CARLISLE   

14:15            Handicap Chase(Class 4)  5yo+ (3m110y) 3m½f Good To Soft 18 fences

1,Russian Sky        5-1 2ND FAV
2,Stark Raven                         2ND 20-1   AM 9/10        Straight Forecast: £71.83  Tricast: £673.17  Exacta: £102.80
3,Royal Mackintosh                    1ST 4-1F ***            AM 1/10 ***
4,Low Reactor       7-1
5,Mrs O'Malley           8-1
6,Windygate             9-1
------------------------------------------Straight Forecast: £71.83  Exacta: £102.80
7,Whispering Moor   6  3RD FAV                                       AM 3/10
8,Versus               50
9,Cybora                              3RD 9-1    AM 8/10
10,Kirkside Pleasure   15-2                       AM 7/10
==============================================================

14:45       Handicap Hurdle   (Class 4) 4yo+ 2m1f Good To Soft 7 hdles 2 omitted   

1,Twelve Paces                       3RD 9-1                  AM 5/13
2,Soul Angel      16-1
3,Breakwater House 16-1
4,Square Dealer    18-1
5,High Stand Lad  15-2
6,Mini Minster                       2ND 16-1      AM 9/13
7,Sinatas                      1ST 7-1 jt 2ND/3rd f               AM 3/13     Ex £72.20; CSF £112.00; TRICAST £1025.57
-----------------------------------------
8,Scuzme           33
9,Marufo           9                              AM 8/13
10,Diavoleria       8                                          AM 7/13
11,Bamby           7 JT 2ND/3RD FAV                                          AM 1/13
12,Fistral    5-1F                                AM 11/13
13,Bijou Dan      10                                            AM 6/13
Report Lex April 10, 2012 12:59 PM BST
my point it is that it was value becuase it won.

I think that this is a point of view that will run and run. so no offence meant.
Report Lex April 10, 2012 1:04 PM BST
I think mathematcially we are both right
your odds must be better than its chance of winning = value
or
your strike rate must be better than the odds you get long term.

But in true practice I think strike rate is better for making profits.
Report DFCIRONMAN April 10, 2012 1:05 PM BST
Your point is just not accurate.......

It is the consistency re your selection method that will determine your success or failure re weighing up whether to back a fav or not....HOWEVER, VALUE IS ESSENTIAL.

If your rating system is a reasonably "good" one...then the winning returns will follow.

Also, your ROI will far better than most punters.....
Report DFCIRONMAN April 10, 2012 1:08 PM BST
I'll post the other races rated for that day.....

Please not that odds on shots are always ignored, unless they are top rated....then a SFC might be considered...though generally won't be done.

Perhaps you will get better understanding of how to spot VALUE and this is based on RANKING in ratings and the odds.

15:20         Novices´ Chase(Class 4) (5yo+) 2m4f Good To Soft 16 fences

1,Ballyvoge                        1ST 4-11F ***              AM 1/5 ***
2,Akilak                N/R
3,Allegedly So    7-1 3RD FAV
4,Nicky Tam                        3RD 16-1    AM 4/5
------------------------------------------Straight Forecast: £2.86  Exacta: £2.70 
5,Contendo              N/R
6,Lord Samposin                    2ND 5-1  2ND FAV                 AM 2/5
7,Tully Hill            N/R
8,Fred Bojangals   66

15:55   Handicap Chase   (Class 4)  5yo+ 2m4f Good To Soft 16 fences

1,Astyanax         20-1
2,Sparkling Taff                  1ST 3-1F ***               AM 2/11 ***
3,Lofty Leader     11-1
4,Posh Stick         15-2
5,Mongorno                       3RD 25-1    AM 8/11
6,Roschal           16-1
-------------------------------------TOTE  WIN £3.60 PL £1.90, £1.40, £7.70; Ex £10.30; CSF £13.67; TRICAST £211.09
7,Sands Rising      5   3RD FAV                                     AM 4/11
8,Kyalami          14                         AM 11/11
9,Sweet Memories   20                         AM 10/11
10,Chopneyev                      2ND 100-30 2ND FAV                AM 1/11    CSF £13.67  Ex £10.30   
11,Brandy Wine   12                            AM 7/11

16:30   Handicap Hurdle    (Class 4)  4yo+ 2m4f Good To Soft 9 hdles 2 omitted

1,Commercial Express    N/R
2,Bleu Pois             9-2F                              AM 2/18
3,Troll                12-1                               AM 5/18
4,Stravaigin                      2ND 9-1                 AM 8/18
5,Ever Special         33-1                AM 12/18   
6,Solway Bee                      3RD 8-1  3RD FAV              AM 3/18
7,Toulouse Express      20-1                AM 14/18
8,Topaz Lady           7-1  2ND FAV               AM 13/18
9,Wise Choice                    1ST 14-1                AM 9/18   CSF £124.78 Ex £395.50         GOOD ODDS WINNER
10,Giant's Rock         50-1                              AM 10/18
11,Ballykelly           9-1                 AM 11/18
---------------------------------TOTE  WIN £23.50 PL £6.00, £3.30, £2.20, £6.70; Ex £395.50; CSF £124.78; TRICAST £1102.56
12,Cha Cha Cha Dancer   20
13,Snowy                         4TH 20-1    AM 18/18
14,Devil's Disguise   25
15,Panthers Run         16                                AM 1/18
16,Island Key              N/R
17,Crystal Runner   28
18,Masterjoe         14                                    AM 4/18
19,Maylee          80
20,Classic Act     9                                       AM 6/18

17:05     Handicap Chase    (Class 4)  5yo+ 2m Good To Soft 12 fences

1,Nortonthorpe Lad       5-1                              AM 2/11 ***
2,Barney                         1ST 7-2F                 AM 6/11     CSF £18.69 Ex £25.30   TRICAST £152.11P ACHIEVED
3,Nevsky Bridge        20-1                               AM 5
4,Native Coll                    2ND 9-2 ***JT 2ND/3RD FAV              AM 1/11 ***
5,Norminster                     3RD 11-1                 AM 3/11
6,The Miner             20-1                              AM 4
----------------------------------------TOTE  WIN £4.40 PL £1.60, £1.90, £3.90; Ex £25.30; CSF £18.69; TRICAST £152.11Place 6 £ 124.84, Place 5 £ 43.86
7,Hollows Mill  12                           AM 9/11
8,Cuccinello    20
9,Stormy Beech   20
10,Oliverjohn    14                          AM 8/11
11,Stand On Me  9-2 JT 2ND/3RD FAV                         AM 7/11


FOLKESTONE

14:10          Median Auction Maiden Stakes(Class 6) (2yo) 5f Good To Soft

1,Soul Sista                   2ND 7-1 ***  3RD FAV                AM 2/4 ***  Straight Forecast: £5.50  Exacta: £5.50 
2,Celtic Commitment   N/R
3,Strictly Royal     8-1
4,Sorrel Ridge       100-3 2ND FAV
-------------------------------------
5,Miss Belle Eve      N/R
6,Northern Tour                1ST 4-6F                      AM 1/4      Straight Forecast: £5.50  Exacta: £5.50 

14:40           Handicap(Class 5) 3yo 6f Good To Soft

1,Blue Jack             7-2F
2,We Have A Dream               1ST 9-2  JT 3RD/4TH FAV   AM 7/10 Straight Forecast: £23.71  Exacta: £25.10 
3,Party In The Park  9-2 JT 3RD/4TH FAV
4,Young Ivanhoe          20-1
5,Kalligal             20-1
6,Whiteoak Lady         10-1
--------------------------------------Straight Forecast: £23.71  Tricast: £175.90  Exacta: £25.10 
7,Our Acquaintance             3RD 12-1      AM 10/10
8,Copperwood         12                                       AM 4/10
9,Epsom Salts         N/R
10,Baunagain                   2ND 4-1 2ND FAV                      AM 1/10
11,Helping Hand      12                      AM 9/10

15:15               Handicap(Class 4)  4yo+ 6f Good To Soft

1,Dickie Le Davoir    8-1
2,Hits Only Jude      7-1
3,Stamford Blue       16-1
4,Golden Desert  9-2 2ND FAV       
5,Nobilissima                  2ND 6-1      AM 9/10
6,Don Pele     20-1
-------------------------------------
7,Shes Minnie  25
8,Mujood                       3RD 5-1   3RD FAV   AM 8/10
9,Bonnie Prince Blue            1ST 9-1                       AM 2/10
10,Andronikos           4-1F                                  AM 1/10

15:50           Maiden Fillies´ Stakes(Class 5) (3yo) (1m1f149y) 1m1½f Good To Soft

1,Riverscape                1ST 13-8F  ***                  AM 2/7 ***
2,L'Orage    66-1     
3,The Hoofer  12-1
4,Pharaohs Queen            3RD 2-1  2ND FAV                       AM 1/7
----------------------------------
5,Dark Camellia   N/R
6,Valferno                  2ND 8-1      AM 7/7
7,Barring Decree    5   3RD FAV                                    AM 3/7
8,Dancing Ellie    40                    AM 6/7

16:25       Handicap  (Class 6)  4yo+ (1m1f149y) 1m1½f Good To Soft 

1,Princelywallywogan        1ST 6-1  JT 3RD/4TH FAV       AM 11/13                     CSF £64.32 Ex £114.50
2,Ruling Reef               3RD 9-2 JF***                   AM 2/13 ***
3,The Dagger    7-1
4,Earl Kraul   14-1
5,Amical Risks   9-2JF
6,Etoile d'Or   20-1
7,Personify     25-1
-------------------------------TOTE  WIN £8.00 PL £2.70, £3.40, £1.70; Ex £114.50; CSF £64.32; TRICAST £302.55Part won. Pool: £221.34 - 0.50 winning units.
8,Forfeiter          6  JT 3RD/4TH FAV                                   AM 1/13
9,Muskatsturm            8                 AM 13/13
10,Istibian             100
11,Flight Dream             2ND 10-1                       AM 3/13
12,Copper King         16                                  AM 6/13
13,King of Connacht  33

17:00              Handicap(Class 6)  4yo+ 1m4f Good To Soft

1,Top Spec        3-1JF
2,General Flumpa  5-1 3RD FAV
3,Icannshift      N/R
4,Street Life                2ND 3-1JF  ***                AM 2/9 ***   Straight Forecast: £79.44  Exacta: £132.80   
5,Ashmolian          7-1
6,Compton Charlie            1ST 20-1    AM 8/9                     BORDERLINE ONE AT GOOD ODDS
---------------------------------------Straight Forecast: £79.44  Tricast: £536.54  Exacta: £132.80  Trifecta: £0.00 
7,Meohmy              8                  AM 7/9
8,Berry Hill Lass            3RD 8-1                        AM 5/9
9,Tribiani         N/R
10,Ardglass            40
11,Sandokan        14                   AM 9/9


FONTWELL

14:20       Novices´ Hurdle (Div I(Class 4) (4yo+) (2m2f110y) 2m2½f Good 9 hdles

1,Tampa Boy                     2ND 11-10F ***            AM 3/10 ***
2,Mole's Chamber    10-1
3,Princess Flame     4-1 3RD FAV
4,Fortification     33-1
5,Psychiatrist                   1ST 11-4 2ND FAV                 AM 1/10
6,Cilla Black        20-1
--------------------------------------Straight Forecast: £6.58  Exacta: £8.50 
7,Storm Surge        80
8,Just A Thought      14                                   AM 4/10
9,Quaystone Lady       100
10,Kilmeena Magic              3RD 33-1                    AM 5/10

14:55         Hurdle (Div II)(Class 4) (4yo+) (2m2f110y) 2m2½f Good 9 hdles

1,Theatre Girl                    1ST 2-9F  ***           AM 1/9 ***
2,Pepito Collonges    25-1                                AM 5/9
3,Quillan Hill          5-1 2ND FAV                              AM 2/9 ***
4,Ouzbeck                 N/R 
5,Sparkys Reflection   100-1                AM 8/9
6,Fit To Drive                   2ND 20-1  3RD FAV                AM 4/9           Straight Forecast: £8.60  Exacta: £7.40 
-----------------------------------
7,Missus Jones  66
8,Debord         66
9,Sumdancer                      3RD 25-1  AM 6/9
10,Let Em Come   100

15:30     Handicap Chase   (Class 5)  5yo+ (3m2f110y) 3m2½f Good 19 fences

1,Kappelhoff         10-1
2,Carroll's O'Tully   13-2 3RD FAV
3,Kisha King         16-1
4,Boardroom Dancer                1ST 12-1   AM 11/14                      Ex £804.10; CSF £232.77
5,Peveril Pride      12-1
6,Another Chat       9-2F
7,Lucky Luk         6-1 2ND FAV
8,Ours                10-1                   AM 12/14
----------------------------------------TOTE  WIN £21.30 PL £6.10, £8.30, £4.20; Ex £804.10; CSF £232.77; TRICAST £6465.95
9,Victree             7                                          AM 3/14
10,Jackella           16
11,Stormy Skye        16
12,Harry Collins     10                      AM 10/14
13,The Laying Hen                3RD 28-1    AM 9/14
14,Dads Lad           N/R
15,Mystical Star                  2ND 20-1                       AM 7/14      CSF £232.77 Ex £804.10;

16:05      Novices´ Selling Hurdle    (Class 5) (4yo+) 2m4f Good 10 hdles

1,Councillor Jack    N/R
2,Sea Map          5-1 3RD FAV
3,Tiffin Deano     50-1
4,Cavalry Twill     5-2F
5,Denise's Dip                      2ND 8-1                     AM 5/12
6,Relative Hero                     3RD 4-1 2ND FAV                    AM 2/12
7,Capestreet            8-1
8,Lyrical Girl       100-1
---------------------------------------
9,Fine Edge         50
10,Night Groove     16                         AM 7/12
11,Team Secret        50
12,Lady Romanov      16                        AM 8/12
13,Music Celebre                      1ST 7-1                   AM 1/12
14,Worcester Lodge N/R

16:40    Handicap Chase    (Class 4)  5yo+ 2m2f Good 13 fences

1,Cleymor House     9-2 3RD FAV
2,Count Kristo                    1ST 100-30F  ***              AM 1/11 ***
3,Space Cowboy                    3RD 7-2  2ND FAV                     AM 5/11
4,Spinaround           14-1
5,Secret GlenTOTE    16-1
6,Wishes Or Watches   28-1
------------------------------------------Straight Forecast: £67.50  Tricast: £255.34  Exacta: £113.70 
7,Lease Back                      2ND 20-1     AM 7/11
8,Inn For The Dancer    8                                        AM 2/11
9,Freedom Frix         11-2                                      AM 4/11
10,Golden Crew      12                                           AM 6/11
11,Ballyrainey 33

17:15   Conditional Jockeys´ Handicap HurdleClass 5)  4yo+ (2m6f110y) 2m6½f Good 11 hdles

1,Wild Ground        11-4F
2,Lazy But Lively      20
3,War Pennant          8
4,Silistra             33
5,Master Wolfe         11
6,Novi Sad             28
7,Imperial Harry       6 3RD FAV
8,Tanktastic         40
9,Midnight Ocean     N/R
10,Lilac Wine                   4TH 33-1                         AM 7/16

---------------------------------TOTE  WIN £15.60 PL £3.90, £5.20, £1.90, £5.90; Ex £282.90; CSF £199.58; TRICAST £1143.06
11,Pearly Star     N/R
12,Psychic Star          16
13,Hermano Cordobes              3RD 5-1   2ND FAV                      AM 2/16
14,Deep Pockets                  1ST 10-1                        AM 3/16
15,Northern Endeavour  16
16,Fairlight Shadow              2ND 20-1       AM 13/16
17,Himba             20                         AM 15/16
18,Deoraoicht         20                        AM 12/16

17:45         Hunters´ Chase(Class 6) (5yo+) 2m4f Good

1,General Alarm      N/R
2,Hatsnall           N/R
3,Sesame Rambler                1ST 13-8F ***                    AM 2/8 ***
4,Highway Oak                   2ND 7-2   ***  3RD FAV                 AM 3/8 ***  Ex £6.50 CSF £8.07 
5,Jurado Express   N/R
6,Urban Rebel     5-2  2ND FAV                                         AM 1/8 ***
7,Saddlers Cloth   11
8,Kadito            20         
------------------------------------
9,Watership Down                3RD 10-1         AM 6/8
10,Scarlet Fantasy  33
11,Ilabon           11                           AM 8/8


KEMPTON

18:50    Handicap    (Class 6)  4yo+ 1m2f Standard

1,Tabulate             10
2,Western Roots                   1ST 8-1       AM 9/11
3,Play Up Pompey        7
4,Siena Star                       2ND 11-2 *** JT 2ND/3RD FAV                  AM 4/11 ***
5,Magic Amigo           6
---------------------------------TOTE  WIN £15.60 PL £5.00, £2.60, £4.30; Ex £78.30; CSF £56.40; TRICAST £422.73
6,Weet Yer Tern           6                    AM 7/11
7,Bowl of Cherries   9-2F                                          AM 5/11
8,Shaheer             20
9,Krakatau           11-2 JT 2ND/3RD FAV                      AM 2/11
10,Patavium Prince               3RD 9-1                         AM 3/11
11,Tykie Two        33

19:20           Maiden Stakes(Class 5) (3yo+) 1m2f Standard

1,Irish Mayhem         N/R
2,Judgethemoment                1ST 11-4 3RD FAV***                 AM 3/5 *** Straight Forecast: £36.26  Exacta: £28.50 
3,Talayeb    13-8 2ND FAV                                           AM 1/5 ***
4,Tharawaat  EVENS F                                         AM 2/5 ***
-------------------------------------
5,Quws Vision  50
6,Ben Ami                       ²ND 14-1     AM 4/5                         Straight Forecast: £36.26  Exacta: £28.50 

1;:50          Handicap(Class 4)  3yo 5f Standard

1,Brassini                 11
2,Valhillen   3RD       100-30 2ND FAV
3,Wavertree Princess    13-2       
4,Your Pleasure          5-2F
-----------------------------m-------
5,Van Bossed                     2ND 6-1     AM 7/7
6,Enodoc       `   13-2                                          AM 2/7
7,Storey Hill                   1ST 4-1  3RD FAV                        AM 3/7

20:20          Fillies´ Handicap(Class 5)  4yo+ 6f Standard

1,Expensive Art                  2ND 4-5F        AM 4/5
2,Is It Time                     1ST 10-1 ***                   AM 1/5 ***  Ex £22.00 CSF £19.75
3,Linda Green         4-1 2ND FAV                      AM 5/5
-------------------------------------CSF £19.75 Ex £22.00
4,Diminuto       13-2                                           AM 3/5
5,The Jailer       5   3RD FAV                                         AM 2/5
6,Mango Music   N/R

20:50         Claiming Stakes(Class 6) (4yo+) 1m Standard

1,Dushstorm                      1ST 5-2 ***3RD FAV                     AM 2/4 ***  Ex £8.00 CSF £7.92
2,Sekula Pata   16-1
3,Royal Dignitary                2ND 15-8 *** 2ND FAV AM 3/4 ***
------------------------------------------
4,Measured Response   N/R
5,Teasing              5-4F                                      AM 1/4

21:20           Fillies´ Handicap(Class 5)  4yo+ 1m Standard

1,Montrachet                    2ND 9-4 ***  JT 2ND/3RD FAV                   AM 1/6 ***      CSF £30.51 Ex £22.00
2,Miss Marauder                 1ST 8-1    AM 5/6
3,Rowan River       9-4 JT 2ND/3RD FAV
4,Power Ballad       2-1F                   AM 6/6
--------------------------------------
5,Indian's Feather   6                                          AM 2/6
6,Apple Blossom      11                                         AM 4/6


TOWCESTER

14:30         Novices´ Chase(Class 4) (5yo+) 2m6f Good 16 fences

1,The Empty Tin           33-1               AM 7/9
2,Stolen Moments                   1ST 11-4F   ***                AM 1/9  *** CSF £24.93 Ex £22.60
3,Nikola                   5-1                                    AM 2/9 ***
4,Pass It On                       2ND 8-1                        AM 5/9
5,Polinamix             7-2 JT 2ND/3RD FAV
----------------------------------------
6,Byways Boy        N/R
7,The Speaker          9                     AM 6/9
8,Mickey Pearce     33
9,In Accord                       3RD 7-2 JT 2ND/3RD FAV                       AM 4/9
10,Romeo            125                       AM 9/9

15:05    Lady Riders´ Selling Hurdle (Class 5) (4yo+) (2m3f110y) 2m3½f Good 10 hdles

1,Ask The Umpire    20                        AM 10/12         
2,Barren Lands                    3RD 14-1 ***                   AM 4/12 ***
3,Robbie Can Can      7-1   3RD FAV                  AM 8/12 
4,Backscratcher       100
5,Mialyssa            25
6,Salveo              25
7,Boyastara           4 2ND FAV
-----------------------------------------
8,Grave Doubts     11                        AM 9/12
9,Dr Dream          9                        AM 7/12
10,Sir Pandy                      2ND 25-1                      AM 5/12
11,Ask The Gatherer               1ST 6-4F                       AM 2/12
12,Isa'af             25                     AM 11/12

15:40             Handicap Chase(Class 4)5yo+ (3m110y) 3m½f Good 18 fences

1,Carryduff                     2ND 9-2 ***   3RD FAV                  AM 2/10 ***
2,Zacharova           4-1 2ND FAV
3,Read All About It   14-1
4,Croc An Oir                    3RD 7-2F ***                  AM 1/10 ***
5,Nagam              8
6,Sycho Fred        25
-------------------------------------Straight Forecast: £35.40  Tricast: £111.76  Exacta: £37.70 
7,The Ring     9                                               AM 6/10
8,Keepatem      15-2                        AM 7/10
9,Radnor Lad                     1ST 6-1                       AM 3/10 Straight Forecast: £35.40 Exacta: £37.70
10,Padre      33

16:15   Handicap Hurdle(Class 3)  4yo+ 3m Good 12 hdles

1,River Reine                   1ST 28-1     AM 11/15              Ex £994.50; CSF £573.52    GOOD ODDS WINNER
2,Ballyboley          16
3,Minster Abbi         6 2ND FAV
4,Delightful Cliche       16
5,Alderman Rose           9
6,Push The Port      7 JT 3RD/4TH FAV
7,Boris The Blade        8
8,Woodlands Genpower    16
-------------------------------TOTE  WIN £33.30 PL £10.50, £10.40, £3.40; Ex £994.50; CSF £573.52; TRICAST £5684.65
9,Harrycone Lewis    11-2F                AM 13/15                     
10,Ortega               18                                     AM 7/15
11,Pangbourne                   4TH 7-1  JT 3RD/4TH FAV                      AM 4/15
12,Jaloux d'Estruval  33                  AM 15/15
13,Heavy Weather     N/R
14,Mister Sher                   3RD 15-2                      AM 2/15
15,Ice And Soda     66                     AM 12/15 
16,Go West                      2ND 25-1   AM 10/15                          CSF £573.52 Ex £994.50;

16:50       Novices´ Hurdle (Class 4) (4yo+) 2m Good 8 hdles

1,Thenford Snipe       50                   AM 14/14
2,Souriceau             4  3RD FAV                                     AM 3/14 ***
3,Pop                           1ST 3-1 ***  2ND FAV                  AM 4/14 ***
4,Badly Bruised      N/R
5,Option Money                  3RD 12-1    AM 9/14         
6,Realism           15-8F
7,Buckshaw          50                      AM 11/14
8,Kack Handed        20                                       AM 6/14
9,Pterodactyl                  2ND 11-2                       AM 1/14
----------------------------------------
10,Sam McCoombe         50
11,Katy's Classic      100
12,Ocean Fou               100
13,Whitewater Dash     N/R
14,Kadouchski            66
15,Immense            22                                      AM 5/14
16,Luce Bay          100

17:25    Handicap Chase         (Class 5) 5yo+ (2m3f110y) 2m3½f Good 14 fences

1,Roaringwater                   3RD 7-2 ***  2ND FAV             AM 1/14 ***
2,Armoury House                  1ST 5-2F ***              AM 3/14 *** CSF £56.77 Ex £66.10
3,Judy The Drinker   20                     AM 13/14
4,Lockstone Lad      33                      AM 10/14
5,Moonlight Music     20                                     AM 7/14
6,Furze Hill          8   JT 3RD/4TH FAV                                  AM 4/14
7,Jacarado          8 JT 3RD/4TH FAV                                      AM 2/14
8,Baron Blitzkrieg              2ND 20-1                     AM 8/14       
----------------------------------------TOTE  WIN £3.80 PL £1.50, £5.00, £1.70; Ex £66.10; CSF £56.77; TRICAST £186.49 
9,Log On Intersky   20
10,Heartofmidlothian  25
11,Signature Tune   16                      AM 12/14
12,Opal Ridge        11                                     AM 6/14
13,Ice Cream         14                                     AM 5/14
14,Better Together    20                    AM 11/14

17:55   Standard Open National Hunt Flat Race(Class 5) (4-6yo) 2m Good

1,Alaminos                         2ND 15-2    AM 10/15
2,Dont Tell Baby    8                                                           AM 1/15
3,Quannapowitt                       3RD 12-1   AM 14/15
4,Overtly Blue      4F
5,Astrop Road           11-2 3RD FAV                                                   AM 4/15
6,So Extreme           100
7,Lunar Rock            9
8,Rhinestone Ruby       N/R
9,Atherstone Hill      66
------------------------------------------Straight Forecast: £39.67  Exacta: £51.80 
10,Arturo Uno                       1ST 9-2  2ND FAV                AM 3/15
11,The Little Chancer       18
12,Kings Rhythm            7                    AM 13/15
13,Madame Jete                 100
14,Woodmaster             50
15,Sun God            66
16,Prince des Marais   14                                     AM 2/15
Report Lex April 10, 2012 1:11 PM BST
thats a lot of work, well done.
But if my strike rate is better than your odds then I win. n'est pas ?
Report JLivermore April 10, 2012 1:15 PM BST
"value is waiting for a horse that is at  a better price than you think it should be, and while waiting you miss out."

Do you mean the horse is currently at a better price than you think it should be and you are waiting for the price to get even better?
Report Lex April 10, 2012 1:17 PM BST
I mean that you are waiting for a price that is better than you think its chance of winning is.

eg I think its a 5/2 chance so Im waiting for 3/1
Report DFCIRONMAN April 10, 2012 1:28 PM BST
On the day above...if you applied the strategies of BACKING and LAYING 1st/2nd and 3rd favs where there was a VALUE bet ...you would have made about 25 points to level stakes, after commission.

You certainly would be unlikely to better that if just punted for fun that day re the same races......but you could on a day where your brain worked up to high standard......DevilLaugh

The 4 odds on shots that day would have given you a loss, as only 2 won at c ra p odds.
Report Lex April 10, 2012 1:40 PM BST
'on the day' - but Im talking about long term.
to be fair, long term is a mythical measurement used by statisticans; just how long is 'long term' anyway.
i googled this and its called stochastic behaviour - apparently its better to have a consistent but high frequency of return.

but then I know nuthin.
Report Lex April 10, 2012 1:45 PM BST
this surely must win the prize for a whole page of clever stuff that I didnt understand an bleedin' word

http://ebooks.cambridge.org/chapter.jsf?bid=CBO9780511599989&cid=CBO9780511599989A010

Laugh
Report DFCIRONMAN April 10, 2012 1:47 PM BST
BACK
    DAILY
    PROFIT
    OR LOSS
   
TOTAL   
PROFIT    356.7735
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx   
FAVS   
30 days    52.644
33days    32.81
   
   
   
2ND FAVS   
22 days    14.08
30 days    52.046
   
   
3RD FAVS   
21 days    86.8805
35 days    118.313
   
   
ROI    17.54911461
   
NUMBER   
BETS    2033
   
TOTAL   
BF SP   
ODDS    10438.32
   
AVERAGE   
ODDS   
PER BET    5.134441712
   
   
NUMBER   
LOSING   
BETS    1547
   
NUMBER   
WINNING   
BETS    486
   
   
   
STRIKE-RATE    23.90555829
==============================================================

ROI is important.......and over 2,000 selections is a fair number of bets to judge consistency IMO....
Report Lex April 10, 2012 2:07 PM BST
Im not debating ROI, but perhaps a better way to acheive a profitable one
Report DFCIRONMAN April 10, 2012 2:14 PM BST
You won't get it by STRIKE-RATE obsession......only getting value in odds.
Report Lex April 10, 2012 2:17 PM BST
clearly you can if your strike rate is better than your average odds.Happy
Report DFCIRONMAN April 10, 2012 2:20 PM BST
Is that average odds of WINNERS or average odds for all bets?
Report catfloppo April 10, 2012 2:20 PM BST
Lex, price is everything
Report DFCIRONMAN April 10, 2012 2:27 PM BST
Forget my last post ..as not paying much attention to thread....racing on etc etc etcTongue Out
Report Lex April 10, 2012 2:31 PM BST
I think the more this is debated the more I feel that

A strike rate that is greater than the price bet is everything

eg 45% strike rate of odds 6/4

is better than

40% strike rate of odds 7/4

for useful betting that is, not a maths excercise (which is the point Im making)
Report JLivermore April 10, 2012 3:18 PM BST
it's better for all purposes
Report DFCIRONMAN April 10, 2012 3:19 PM BST
You need a strike rate that is greater than the price bet to make a profit.......

However, it is a case of deciding whether the 6-4 shot is VALUE on that race........some are and some are about right in odds and some are just lays.

You say you are using "skill".....but does your brain work consistently well enough compared to systematic approach to betting.

RATED races can indicate which ones are VALUE and which are not.....consistently.

The brain tends to be less likely to be as consistent compared to systematic approach.

You are just betting for "fun".......which is fair enough.

GL with bets.
Report Lex April 10, 2012 3:39 PM BST
ok dfc (cant use that surely)

whats better

45% strike rate of odds 6/4

or

40% strike rate of odds 7/4

?
Report DFCIRONMAN April 10, 2012 6:35 PM BST
1st one as higher ROI
Report h-bomb April 10, 2012 9:08 PM BST
Bank 5000 pts.

Bet 1) Liverpool not to win v Blackburn @  approx 2.10

My estimate: 1.80


Stake = 15.5% = 776.93 pts
Report h-bomb April 10, 2012 9:20 PM BST
Numbers keep changing too quickly in running, so going to kkep info to a minimum.


Bet 2)

Rochdale v Sheff Utd over 7,5 goals @ 1.83

My estimate 1.70

Stake =    279.00pts
Report h-bomb April 10, 2012 9:57 PM BST
Bets 1 @ 2 losers. Bank = 3944.07 points.

That was almost impossible to make the calculations on in-running games, things were changing so fast. Also chose not to cash out big Blackburn profit in injury time, despite feeling Liverpool looked dangerous. A clear mistake. Two lessons learned.
Report tobermory April 11, 2012 1:23 AM BST
ul H Bomb,yes  hard to price up in running, the people that do likely have detailed charts for that

Lex ,

Getting a SR better than your average odds over time you have to be placing value bets wether you believe in it or not.

The 'missing a winner' is a red herring . People who take the value approach want to back anything that is a value price.

They do not decide on a selection and then hope it reaches a value price.

eg  Frankel at Newbury next month...... Given the sort of opposition i'd expect him to have i'd say 4/11 would be a value price and i'd certainly like to back him at those odds . If he is 2/9 then i wouldn't bother . If he then won easily i would not regret not backing him @2/9 as i never had any interest in doing so to begin with.
Report Lex April 11, 2012 11:04 AM BST
45% strike rate of odds 6/4
40% strike rate of odds 7/4

I know both examples are value bets of course (!)

But what Im saying is, from a punting point of view,  a higher strike rate is better Laugh
Report DFCIRONMAN April 11, 2012 11:39 AM BST
My "strike-rate" in naps competition is probably the lowest rate in league.......but still have a plus figure at SP for this year.

There are many in Divisions who have significantly higher SRs....but are lower down the YEARLY NAPS table than me.

So when you say a higher SR is "better", this is just not factually correct.

Most of winners I get in NAPS comp are at significantly higher odds on BF , than the SP used for the comp. Only roughly 2 points up at SP in current year in comp.......which may not appear to be much good......but still with a low strike-rate ( probably about 5%) there are many with 45% strike-rates who have negative figures in comp....DevilLaugh
Report DFCIRONMAN April 11, 2012 12:04 PM BST
My SR in comp is only about 21% at best this year ....and down near 5% on poor months....
Report JLivermore April 11, 2012 12:55 PM BST
Lex,

what's better here:
40% strike rate of odds 6/4
39% strike rate of odds 7/4

?
Report Lex April 11, 2012 2:07 PM BST
now youre just teasing me.

only one is value now.

But that (again) aint wot me is sayin.

a higher strike rate is better
Report JLivermore April 11, 2012 2:20 PM BST
yes, but there are other factors... that's what I was trying to demonstrate
Report Lex April 11, 2012 2:27 PM BST
Statistics are always over 'the long term'
but long term is not realistic.
6/4 winners might do well this week but over the next month, not so much. So over an indefinable term then strike rate is more important.

if youre betting odds against then over the long term you will get more losers than winners but short term you may not.
Report Lex April 11, 2012 2:57 PM BST
say your 'long term' is 1000 bets
and your average odds for your system is 3.0
you want to win £100 from your system asap

your bet is £20 (a bigger stake will reach your target faster)

as soon as your strike rate is better than 33% then you get £100 (eg better than 333 wins)
You profit because of value but it was strike rate that was more important.
Report h-bomb April 11, 2012 10:55 PM BST
Probably nobody was interested anyway, but I think I'm going to have to abandon my trial. Posting info on all the bets is simply too time consuming, especially if trying to bet in running.

It's been a crazy day today, made lots of bets. Nicely up though thanks to a bet that didn't even really fit into the system...a rogue accumulator:

    All Sports Man City, Over 2.5 Goals, Under 3.5 Goals, Over 2.5 Goals, Australia, Mumbai Indians
    Back     30783352     11-Apr-12
13:46     1           -     800.0     Matched
    Man City, Over 2.5 Goals, Under 3.5 Goals, Over 2.5 Goals, Australia, Mumbai Indians
    Back     237962537     11-Apr-12
13:46     -           13.18     800.0     Matched
Man City v West Brom Match Odds:
    Man City     Back     918296246     11-Apr-12
13:46     -           1.28     -     Won
Wolves v Arsenal Over/Under 2.5 goals:
    Over 2.5 Goals     Back     918296247     11-Apr-12
13:46     -           1.55     -     Won
Wigan v Man Utd Over/Under 3.5 Goals:
    Under 3.5 Goals     Back     918296248     11-Apr-12
13:46     -           1.41     -     Won
Valencia v Rayo Vallecano Over/Under 2.5 goals:
    Over 2.5 Goals     Back     918296249     11-Apr-12
13:46     -           1.59     -     Won
West Indies v Australia (1st Test) Match Odds:
    Australia     Back     918296250     11-Apr-12
13:46     -           1.86     -     Matched
Mumbai v Rajasthan Match Odds:
    Mumbai Indians     Back     918296251     11-Apr-12
13:46     -           1.56     -     Won

Aussies have just won, so that takes the pot to over 10,000 now.

But like I said, just so time consuming.

Apologies.
Report h-bomb April 12, 2012 12:51 AM BST
Not to mention:

    2012-04-12
02:46     19321532901     2012-04-12
02:22     Doubles Matches Blake/Querrey v Souza/Zeballos / Match Odds / Blake/Querrey
Back           4.00     1,000.00     Won           3,000.00    
    2012-04-12
02:46     19321530180     2012-04-12
02:22     Doubles Matches Blake/Querrey v Souza/Zeballos / Match Odds / Blake/Querrey
Back           2.60     983.00     Won           1,573.39

Which takes the pot to over 15,000.

Staking in running getting out of control though.

No time to calculate Kelly stakes properly when prices are moving so fast.

I can see this leading to big problems.
Report Lex April 12, 2012 9:40 AM BST
Sorry for hi jacking your thread h-bomb, I for one thnk youre doing a very impressive job here and if my selection skills were half as good as yours I would be betting much more seriously!

Well done and if you do get the time, please keep posting. Happy
Report DFCIRONMAN April 12, 2012 10:55 AM BST
h-bomb - thanks for starting thread. Some useful information/ideas posted by contributors.

JLivermore 's post early on re STAKING was particularly useful for me ( Using KELLY and edge/odds  to arrive at STAKE %).

I had checked BACKING top 3 in market to WIN, and had stats lumping results together. This produced ROI 13.55% from 2,410 selections. However, have now broken stats down to those for favs/2nd favs/3rd favs and the ROI for each category is 13.09%, 4.54% and 21.57% respectively. Average odds , using BF SP, naturally differs for each category, and the STAKING % now indicated is as follows -

FAVS with average odds 3.06 ( ie 3.06-1)...STAKING % 4.27

2ND FAVS...............4.53 ...............STAKING % 0.96

3RD FAVS...............7.21................STAKING % 2.99

STAKING is , for me, one of hardest parts re betting.

I am aware that even armed with above STAKING %s for each category, that I will still be betting in a crude way, as no account being taken to try to evaluate the value on each bet.

However, the above STAKING %s at least are attemptig to bet in a more efficient way than the even cruder LEVEL STAKES method on all bets.

GL with bets.
Report h-bomb April 12, 2012 12:32 PM BST
Again, not really time to post. But I'm going for Chardy in the tennis, and Chennai to do better than expected in cricket. Currently getting pummelled by Bangelore, but I think they can make it close. Will try post later.
Report h-bomb April 12, 2012 9:00 PM BST
Couple of big priced winners there.
Report h-bomb April 13, 2012 9:36 AM BST
I'm glad people are getting something out of the discussion. It's good that we can have a discussion without people getting abusive, as usually happens on the Betfair forum.

For what it's worth, and I'm sure there'll be plenty of you who disagree with me, this is what I think.

For me it's quite simple:



Strike Rate x Price = RETURN

eg. 50% x Evens = money back.

or  0.50 x 2.00 = 1.00, to a one unit stake.

(Not counting commission)


Therefore:

Increased S.R. needs price to remain the same for your return to increase.

Likewise, getting an increased price (or as we like to call it - Value)  means your S.R can't afford to drop.


To profit, you have to:

1) Be able to get an above-expected price (i.e. value) with EVERY SINGLE SELECTION YOU MAKE. This is extremely difficult to do. Also, if you get value, but only back one football team for example every day, then there is a very real chance that all your selections, no matter how good value, could all lose. It ONLY WORKS,if you get value every time AND you can maintain an expected strike rate.

OR

2) Be able to pick an above-expected number of winners with a fair market price. Value here isn't crucial, but you do at least have to get what would be the true market price or very close to it.

3) Combine both 1 and 2. Utopia.


Most people on here advocate getting value. This makes total sense. You're getting a better price than others. But you need to get it consistently or you'll lose. Otherwise we could all just be watching matches all day, and the moment an in-running price went above its S.P. we would back it, get value and retire in the sun. For those who can do it consistently though it should mean a regular, if perhaps small, profit.

Almost everyone here thinks it's impossible to back more winners than the odds suggest. a Dream world. I disagree. All my trials and experiences tell me it's entirely possible. But, I think very, very, very few people can do it.

So in this sense I agree with Lex. Strike rate is as equally as important as value. It's just harder to achieve. But they are brother and sister. One is dependent on the other. Getting value relies on your strike rate remaining as odds would expect. And an above average strike rate depends on your prices being close to S.P.

My trials have shown consistent profit using bookies prices (which I don't think anyone would call value). That's because my strike rate is consistently above expectation.

The issues I'm now trying to work out (as I do believe I'm sitting on a potential goldmine) are issues that I believe people continue to underestimate, but which are just as crucial as value and strike rate. These are BANK MANAGEMENT, DISCIPLINE and MARKET LIQUIDITY.

These are proving difficult skills for me to master. But my efforts continue.

I appreciate that many of you will probably disagree with my comments. And I may well be wrong.

But at this particular moment in time, I strongly believe them to be true.
Report Lex April 13, 2012 9:43 AM BST
Cheers H

You put it better than me !

Laugh
Report h-bomb April 13, 2012 11:00 AM BST
P.S.

Thanks to everyone for their contributions. A lot of intelligent observations have been made, which I have personally found very useful.

The fact that I've put on an occasional accumulator (old habits die hard) again shows you I'm struggling with a lack of discipline, as I know they will eat into any profit.

But for old times sake, and for fun, here is my acc. for this weekend  Happy



1    Birmingham v Bristol City (Backing  Birmingham @ 1.49)
2    Pune v Chennai (Backing  Chennai Super Kings @ 1.6)
3    Berlocq v F Lopez (Backing  Carlos Berlocq @ 1.54)
4    Norwich v Man City (Backing  Man City @ 1.54)
5    Sunderland v Wolves - Over/Under 3.5 Goals (Backing  Under 3.5 Goals @ 1.48)
6    Zenit St Petersburg v CSKA Moscow (Laying  Zenit St Petersburg @ 2.15)
7    Levante v Barcelona - Over/Under 2.5 goals (Backing  Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.5)
8    Nottm Forest v Blackpool (Laying  Nottm Forest @ 2.57)

Combined odds. of 39.26 using Betfair's outrageous, multiples rip-off prices.
Report Eddie the eagle April 13, 2012 11:22 AM BST
Amazing that you people can spend hours discussing strike rate vs value when it's basically the same thing.
  It's only possible to have a better than expected strike rate long term because you get value prices.
Report JLivermore April 13, 2012 11:31 AM BST
I am smiling, but the last few comments make me feel like I should stop posting... but some sick part of me wants to try again, so here goes:

"1) Be able to get an above-expected price (i.e. value) with EVERY SINGLE SELECTION YOU MAKE." - this is VALUE.
"2) Be able to pick an above-expected number of winners with a fair market price." - if the market price is fair then this must be LUCK

"Most people on here advocate getting value. This makes total sense. You're getting a better price than others." - this isn't true... everyone betting the same direction as you can get the same (value) price

"Be able to get... value... with EVERY SINGLE SELECTION YOU MAKE." - Value is not observable (because exact chances of things happening are not knowable) - you can only estimate it - so determining whether value was found is just not possible in single selections, so, in that sense, you just shouldn't worry about it.

This might help:
http://www.beatbookies.com/blog/value-bets-and-value-odds/
Report h-bomb April 13, 2012 11:42 AM BST
That column advises backing at odds higher than you'd expect them to be i.e. value.  which I think is now agreed upon.


You've suggested that picking an above-expected number of winners with a fair market price is LUCK. i.e. Good luck. Which means you believe it can't be maintained, as to maintain good luck forever is surely impossible.

We'll agree to disagree.
Report Lex April 13, 2012 11:44 AM BST
Amazing that you people can spend hours discussing strike rate vs value when it's basically the same thing.

yes

  It's only possible to have a better than expected strike rate long term because you get value prices.

nope you can have a better than expected strike rate at anytime and not make any money.


look at my example above again. the quicker you get the strike rate the faster you profit
Report JLivermore April 13, 2012 11:56 AM BST
"you can have a better than expected strike rate at anytime and not make any money."

and this is exactly why it's not a good measure to look at.
Report Lex April 13, 2012 12:02 PM BST
ok you said
Value is not observable (because exact chances of things happening are not knowable)

if thats the case then you need a good strike rate that is better than the mean odds.

so strike is better.
Report TheInvestor2 April 13, 2012 12:08 PM BST
Be able to pick an above-expected number of winners with a fair market price.

You mean by luck right?

It's impossible to apply skill to pick an above-expected number of winners with a fair market price, as the fact that the market price (the price you struck your bet at) is fair, means you can only expect to break even over time (GP).
Report JLivermore April 13, 2012 12:12 PM BST
I'll try an example then.

You place a lot of bets of £1 at 1.1 and a lot of bets of £1 at 20.

What are your mean odds and what strike rate do you need to be profitable?
Report Lex April 13, 2012 12:17 PM BST
910 winners from 1000 at £100 stakes will give £100 profit
51 winners from 1000 at £5 stakes will give £100 profit

i think Confused
Report DFCIRONMAN April 13, 2012 1:30 PM BST
Lex 10 Apr 12 12:46
I think strike rate must be better than the price you bet at = skill.
value is waiting for a horse that is at  a better price than you think it should be, and while waiting you miss out.
============================================================
Lex 10 Apr 12 13:17
I mean that you are waiting for a price that is better than you think its chance of winning is.

eg I think its a 5/2 chance so Im waiting for 3/1
=============================================================

As stated earlier, my "strike-rate" in naps competition is probably one of lowest in leagues.

Reason why I am still in small positive points position is due to SP odds being greater than the ones the high "strike-rate" players in negative points position for year.

Napped a winner at 5-1 SP yesterday for example.....which was 13.06-1 at BF odds well before race time. There was a strong market move mins before the off that ruined the odds for comp. purposes.... So I only get 5 points for win in comp..

I knew the odds were "good value" when backing it....I did not have to wait until odds went higher....as most of horses I nap reduce substantially in odds after I have backed them. Sure......I could try to get higher odds, but I didn't, as not betting professionally.

Every winner I get in competition is at SP odds far lower than the odds backed at........ The +1 point approx. cumulative tally to date for current year does not reflect the extra value obtained from backs ( in example above 8 points of a difference etc)......

I've no idea how those with HIGH strike-rates above me in comp are faring re the odds they back at........Though it is likely the short odds napsters would end up behind me re odds backed at. The top napsters are getting high odds winners regularly....so they will be well ahead of me re odds being backed at and also ahead at SP odds.....Their strike-rate for the top napsters will be well below the short odds napsters....but they will be massively in front of them on odds backed due to to the huge value you they will be grabbing!

I never "know" a horse will win, but I am a fair napster in comp...I DO NOT THINK ABOUT STRIKE RATE WHEN PLACING A BET....IT IS IRRELEVANT, AS I EXPECT I WILL ACHIEVE WINNERS AT GOOD ODDS REGULARY ENOUGH TO MAKE A PROFIT. Horses backed are chosen as I believe they have good chance to win, taking account of factors in race and other horses in race. They generally are at value odds.

Strike-rate is not what you should focus on.....only backing /LAYING at value odds.....If you are any good/have skill/edge, then the winners will come.

I suspect Lex you back horses at short odds end of market.....nothing wrong with that, provided you are skillful enough/ have sufficient edge/s and you will need a HIGH strike-rate at that end of market. The margin of value in odds is likely to be far less at the favourites end of market, compared to horses I tend to select ( eg the nap in comp. yesterday  became a CO-FAV at 5-1 SP in last few mins before off........but I backed it well before off at 13.06-1 on BF......You may have backed it too yesterday, and be happy it won at 5-1 SP..... I am happier, because I smugly got the value before the lemmings rushed to back itDevilLaugh.....)

Anyway.......value in odds is essential to profitable punting.....strike-rate is what most fun punters are happy with...geting some returns now and then to make them think they are skillful punters.Devil

GL with bets.
Report h-bomb April 13, 2012 2:15 PM BST
Investor says you cannot back more than 50 percent winners at fair odds of evens.

I think there is some slight confusion over language here. I mean fair in terms of what bookies would offer if they weren't skimming a percentage.

Bookies do very well in that they can price up thousands of events at odds of evens and over a long time their average price will work out to be almost spot on. They do NOT however get it right every time. Sometimes their evens is too short, sometimes it is too long, sometimes it's correct, but over time their mistakes average out.

This is where winning punters take advantage. They get bigger odds than they believe they should be getting eg bookies price up at evens, but you think it should be 1.60.

Most of you will say this is called getting value. I agree.

But the reality is, that if I make 100 bets at a bookies price of evens, some of these could be good value, a few bad value and many priced correctly. If more are priced incorrectly than correctly then I can get more than 50 winners at a price of evens and it is NOT luck.

I'm now starting to think we are all talking about the same thing.

Whether it's getting bigger prices than you expect, or backing more than 50 percent winners at evens (because they should be smaller odds than evens). I believe it all amounts to the same thing.

I would suggest it is therefore INCORRECT to say you can't pick more winners than the odds imply, because by saying this you are at the same time saying it is impossible to get value.

In conclusion, I didn't really understand his post at first and even thought it was nonsense, but I'm now inclined to agree with the recent post of Eddie The Eagle who said:

Amazing that you people can spend hours discussing strike rate vs value when it's basically the same thing.
  It's only possible to have a better than expected strike rate long term because you get value prices.


This now seems to make perfect sense. We're calling the same thing by two different names.

And remember, it's only my opinion Happy



But it also means you can't say strike rate isn't important, because it's essentially the same thing as getting value. You get more winners because you identify the mistakes in price.
Report Lex April 13, 2012 2:56 PM BST
we've gone full circle here

value =  better strike rate than mean odds = mean odds better than strike rate


but my point is still that from a practical punting point of view (not maths point of view) strike rate is more important than the price.
Report namwob22000 April 13, 2012 7:25 PM BST
Very interesting read this thread, although a lot of unnecessary confusion over the last few pages! And h-bomb you've hit the nail on the head, they are precisely the same thing.

Lex, to see that they are the same thing consider this example:

I back 1000 equally staked bets at evens and win 600 of them. You say that I've made profit because my strike rate is higher than 50%? Yes, but my stike rate is above 50% precisely because I have been on average getting value odds, the fact that my strike rate is 60% simply shows that the 'true' odds were on average below evens, so by getting evens I was getting value.

The point is that value odds cause a profitable strike rate so the whole concept of strike rate is really an unnecessary complication!
Report h-bomb April 13, 2012 9:10 PM BST
namwob,

This is something I'm learning as I go.

And I'm interested, does this mean I should be backing every selection I believe is value, even if I don't expect it to win? Does this lead to greater profits?

It kind of goes against a person's instincts to back things they don't strongly believe will win, but is that the best way to bet?
Report h-bomb April 13, 2012 9:13 PM BST
Also, apologies to those who already understood all that's been discussed.

It wasn't even a subject I meant to get into.

But I feel that nobody has really explained it in a very clear way prior to this, Hopefully this will help a few people, besides me.
Report namwob22000 April 13, 2012 10:12 PM BST
h-bomb,

If you're still maintaining the edge that you had at the start of this thread, I'm not sure you should be taking advice from me on what leads to greater profits!

But yes, any selection that is value, no matter how unlikely, should lead to greater profit in the long run. However sadly it isn't that simple. Long shots, even if they are value, introduce a greater variance into your profits. Put simply you should expect more fluctuations in your profit. That's why kelly staking divides by the odds received, suggesting smaller stakes on unlikely events. 

That wouldn't be my biggest concern though. Although the sample size is still too small to be sure, it would seem you have a knack for identifying value bets around evens. Now, as the incredulous replies from some others suggest, that's no small talent! BUT I would say that it's dangerous to assume that you can also do the same for more extreme odds. The reality is that the odds offered on most selections are representative of their respective probabilities, and value bets (on betfair at least) are few and far between. It's very easy to price things up and convince yourself you've found value when in fact you've just not weighed up the different factors correctly, which is what a lot of self proclaimed 'pros' do. You seem to somehow be avoiding this pitfall on your evens shots so I would stick with them if I were you!
Report Lex April 14, 2012 10:45 AM BST
namwob22000

I have said that they are the same thing. Again, that is not my point. Strike rate is better for the punter as value odds are very hard to determine until after the result. Where as value strike rate is not (see my examples)
Report Lex April 14, 2012 10:50 AM BST
Alsovalue odds rely on 'in the long run' - which again cant be determined. But your strike rate can over a set number of races. (as per example)
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