General Betting
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Question for the Pros.
Question for the Pros.
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Replies: 249
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75% strike rate so far
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Bet 4: Loser @ 1.78
Level stake = 50, Return = 0 Kelly stake = 2.19% = 26.88, Return = 0 SuperKelly stake = 26.97% = 492.10, Return = 0 BANKS AFTER BET 4 LEVEL(5%) = 1046.42 KELLY = 1200.01 SUPERKELLY = 1332.24 |
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Bet 5: Winner @ 2.50
Level stake = 50, Return = 121.25 Kelly stake = 9.08% = 109, Return = 264.32 SuperKelly stake = 30% = 399.67, Return = 969.19 N.B.( Superkelly Stake here calculated using 16% edge, not 36% as before. This because under/over goal bets have 36% edge, all other sports bets have 16% edge) BANKS AFTER BET 5 LEVEL(5%) = 1117.67 KELLY = 1355.33 SUPERKELLY = 1901.76 |
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Hopefully my maths is accurate. It's messy with the calculator, but thanks askari1 for helping. I think I finally understand how to calculate Kelly.
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Bet 6: In running: New York Red Bulls v Montreal: Goals over 6,5 @ 2,00
My estimate 1.80. Currently 2-2 after 77 mins |
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Sorry, I mean currently 4-2
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89th minute goal, 5-2.
Bet 6 winner. |
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Bet 7: Tennis: In running: Oudin to beat Watson @ 2.00
My estimate 1.90. Currently 3-1 in 1st set. |
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i prefer Chaos theory
that's the chaos that ensues after a goal has been scored - that part of the game where players appear to have left their brain at home (seizure moments)  |
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Bet 6: Winner @ 2,00
Level stake = 50, Return = 97.5 Kelly stake = 11.10% = 150.44 , Return = 293.35 SuperKelly stake = 36% = 684.63, Return = 1335.02 BANKS AFTER BET 6 LEVEL(5%) = 1165.17 KELLY = 1498.24 SUPERKELLY = 2552.15 |
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Bet 7: Oudin beats Watson in 3 sets. Winner @ 2.00
Level stake = 50, Return = 97.50 Kelly stake = 5.26% = 78.80 , Return = 153.66 SuperKelly stake (16%edge) = 16% = 408.34, Return = 796.26 BANKS AFTER BET 7 LEVEL(5%) = 1212.67 KELLY = 1573.10 SUPERKELLY = 2940.07 |
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Results to Date:
7 Bets: 5 Winners. 1 Loser, 1 Void. Banks +/- Performance: LEVEL + 212.67 KELLY + 573.10 SUPERKELLY + 1940.07 |
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Bet 8: Snooker: in running: Ebdon to beat Maguire @ 1.80
My estimate: 1.66. Currently 3-1 to Ebdon. |
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Liquidity in this market for Bet 7 is simply horrible. But the 1.80 available is above my estimate of 1.66, so taken it.
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Sorry, liquidity for Bet 8 that is.
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Sorry to say this H-bomb.
But everything you post on here sounds so fake and insincere. The most appropriate analogy I can think of is it's like watching some obnoxiously smooth pollie being interviewed on TV. I apologize if I've got you all wrong, but that's what I feel. |
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How can it be fake?
Ebdon leads 3-1 still? Prices and details posted. What is missing? |
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In fact he's still available at 1.64
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Bet 8: Ebdon to beat Maguire @1.80
Level stake = 50 Kelly stake = 10.54% = 165.80 SuperKelly stake (16%edge) = 5.50% = 161.70 I needed to calculate these beforehand, because the issue now arises of what to do if you have more than one bet running at once. For example, Bet 8 will be running for several hours yet, but now I want to place Bet 9. I've looked on the internet and it seems you're supposed to reduce your stake in accordance with the other bets already running. If this is incorrect, could somebody please correct me. So,by my reckoning it goes like this: Bet 9: Newcastle v Liverpool: Goals over 2,5 @ 1.94 My estimate: 1.80 Level stake = 50 Kelly stake = 8.26% = 129.98 SuperKelly stake (36%edge) = 33.96% = 998.37 But because Bet 8 is still running, stakes need reducing by multiplying by (1-risk of concurrent bet). Hence adjusted stakes for Bet 9 are: Level stake = 50 x (1-0.05) = 47.5 Kelly stake = 8.26% = 129.98 x (1-0.1054) = 115.65 SuperKelly stake (36%edge) = 33.96% = 998.37 x (1-0.055) = 943.45 First time I've done this, so if anyone can see any glaring mistakes, please let me know. |
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Bet 8: Winner @ 1.80
Level stake = 50, Return = 88.00 Kelly stake = 10.54% = 165.80, Return = 291.80 SuperKelly stake (16%edge) = 5.50% = 161.70, Return = 284.59 BANKS AFTER BET 8 LEVEL(5%) = 1250.67 KELLY = 1699.10 SUPERKELLY = 3062.96 |
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Bet 9: Loser.
Level stake = 47.5, Return = 0 Kelly stake = 115.65, Return = 0 SuperKelly stake (36%edge) = 943.45, Return = 0 BANKS AFTER BET 9 LEVEL(5%) = 1203.17 KELLY = 1583.45 SUPERKELLY = 2119.51 |
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Bet 10: Murray to beat Djokovic @ 3.35
My estimate 3.00 |
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Bet 11: Valencia v Levante: Goals under 2.5 @ 1.93
My estimate 1.75. currently 1-1 after 78 mins |
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Sociedad v Vallecano over 4,5 goals @ 3.25
My estimate 2.40. in running, currently 1-1 after 34 minutes. |
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That's Bet 12.
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Another mistake, getting tired, score is 2-0 not 1-1
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Bet 10: Loser.
Level stake = 50, Return = 0 Kelly stake = 4.96% = 78.53, Return = 0 SuperKelly stake (16%edge) = 40.13% = 850.50, Return = 0 BANKS AFTER BET 10 LEVEL(5%) = 1153.17 KELLY = 1504.92 SUPERKELLY = 1269.01 |
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Bet 11: Winner @ 1.93
Level stake = 50, Return = 94.17 Kelly stake = 11.05% = 166.35, Return = 313.32 SuperKelly stake (36%edge) = 33.59% = 426.27, Return = 802.87 BANKS AFTER BET 11 LEVEL(5%) = 1197.34 KELLY = 1651.89 SUPERKELLY = 1645.61 |
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Bet 12: Loser @ 3.25
Level stake = 50, Return = 0 Kelly stake = 15.73% = 259.86, Return = 0 SuperKelly stake (36%edge) = 53.78% = 884.97, Return = 0 BANKS AFTER BET 12 LEVEL(5%) = 1147.34 KELLY = 1392.03 SUPERKELLY = 760.64 |
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So therein concludes this short experiment.
The results from one weekend: 12 Bets = 7 winners, 4 losers, 1 void. Strike rate = 63.63% Performance +/- LEVEL(5%) + 147.34 KELLY + 392.03 SUPERKELLY - 239.36 ESTIMATED EDGE AT LEVEL STAKES (5%) = profit divided by amount staked = 147.73/550 = 26.86% Conclusions Using a very high Kelly percentage all the time i.e. a fixed percentage is completely ludicrous. It makes no allowance for your estimated chance of winning and assumes it's always high regardless of the odds. Level stakes is solid, if slightly pedestrian, but then 14% profit from two days isn't to be sneezed at. Using full Kelly though, assuming you can estimate the true odds with some success, is clearly the way to go. That's assuming once again though, that you can keep your strike rate high. But if you can't do that, then is there any point in gambling at all? |
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P.S.
Obviously this is just a very small experiment, nowhere near conclusive, and probably very tedious for those of you who already know all about this stuff. Perhaps some other novices like me will have gained something from it though. It certainly helped me learn a few things. Thanks to those from early on, who gave some helpful advice. |
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Are you not continuing after that great start
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I for one didnt find it boring, was well explained, im taking your word about the maths of it all, much better thread than 99% on these forums, gl
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I think you should keep it going, at least to say 100 bets. At the current rate that shouldn't take long and you may well be done just after Easter.
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Ok. But my hearts not really in it now. I'll chuck in a few more though.
Bet 13: Goals over 2,5 @ 1.87 My estimate 1,50 currenlty 0-0 after 11 mins. |
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Bet 14: Tennis : McHale to beat Wozniack @ 1.97
My estimate 1.75 currenlty 4-5 in 1st set. |
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Bet 15: Seville v Mallorca
Goals under 1,50 @ 3.10 My estimate 2.00 currently 0-0 after 20 mins. |
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Bet 16: Blackburn Man Utd goals over 0.5 @ 2.00
My estimate 1.80. 0-0 after 75 mins. |
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Bet 17: Rodionova to beat Czink @ 1.57
My estimate 1.20 |
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sorry that price should have been 1.43 not 1.57
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