I think you have your terminology mixed up GA
Are you telling me that if you buy at 11 and sell at 9.6 you are making a profit?
Think that through before you embarrass yourself further

You don't like the thread now because you're being "outed" as a fantasist
Just MY OPINION

sorry Im not responding to these anymore, clearly a wind up , no-one could be that thick

to say I'm in a Goldmine in rubin game would be an understatement. look at the odds Milan have been swinging from laying off at 4 now

if you arent already on the draw in bang/windies test, id still be a layer at 3.05, i reckon it will drift overnight before play resumes to around 3.2, and every run the windies score tmora will see it lengthen..i'll be looking to get out hopefully around 4.6ish near the end of windies innings

dont think you'll regret it malky, i can see the windies scoring up to 600 runs and if they do theres no knowing just how much the draw market will panic...they are in the captains words  ''aiming for a 250 lead and hopefully not having to bat twice''

Smithy, GA, SCOM, Malky, IQMC etc

Please just ignore the negative,doubting, and possibly wind up posts and keep the the good work and this excellent thread.

I've followed it for quite a while and I'm learning  how not to be the Mug that I have been for far too long. I was a typical Live on TV mug losing more than you win and doing stupid things like goalscorers and scorecasts !
I'm learning how to trade using small £100 lays and back bets to make a few quid until I gain some experience before investing properly.

My major stumbling block Is when to realise you have a bad trade. Someone has mentioned below somewhere a 5 point stop loss. Is this about right. What sort of stop loss systems do others use or is it more a matter of a very close eye on odds checker and pinny?

great post stickon, yes keep oddschecker open all the time and note the pinnacle movements..im still not using software yet, but if you were to use the likes of gruss or geeks toy you can set your own stop losses, otherwise just go red if you feel the market is going too far away from you for comfort

stickon if u have 2.76 you can green up nicely if you desire at around 3.0 currently

i keep posting this but its fascinating..these are the results since 2009, if you had blind £100 backs or lays on every single test match played

laydraw    +£1849
lay2fav    -£82
laydog    -£186
backfav    -£504
layfav    -£896
back2fav    -£1058
backdog    -£2625
backdraw    -£3379

cheers i quit will get on copenhagen.

wow 4.3, thats incredibly short considering theres a logjammed leaderboard, might have some of that ..just takes a few birdies from other players for his odds to lengthen

v good shout on the baangladesh draw SCOM - maybe prefer it to the draw in  india, its v difficult to see it lengthening by end of day 3

cheers for that stickon - and I agree you gotta have oddschecker on all the time - if everything goes blue or pink dont ignore it

having said that look at lyon tonite , its all over the place - most go lyon 3.5 or less , but a couple go large including pinnacle at 4 - i suppose the thinking is lyon 2nds with nothing to play for versus lyon vastly superior side, steamrollered everyone in the group to date - i prefer the lyon argument and will stick with my back for now

green army     Joined: 15 Oct 05
Replies: 614 22 Nov 12 08:13 
and sir fresh, momtpelier were in fact 4 unbeaten - certainly in the french league

Well if you're omitting Champions League results when analysing form for a Champions League match then you should give up the game.

this is a decent article


Does Weight of the Money trading work? Yes and no.

Fundamentally, the markets HAVE to be governed by the WOM dynamic. It’s just that simple and that’s our starting point. If we imagine a million people wanting to back Chelsea and only punter wanting to lay them, the price will fall as the backers accept lower and lower prices. What makes the dynamic particularly striking is that it does not run on cold hard logic; it runs on emotion: “oh, that guy is in front of me with his £2000 bet.. I need to get matched! Gotta jump in front of him so I can get on, will need to move my price forward quick!” Note the worrisome tone.

This emotion causes a short-term panic as one punter jumps over the next and so forth. In other words, a microcosm of the same thing we have seen on a much bigger scale in the stock market – the tulip bubble, the south sea bubble, the dot com bust, etc etc. As always, emotions and social proof govern the trends.

So in a nutshell, yes, it is fundamentally the WOM that drives prices. It has to be, and it is the same in any market worldwide. It’s called supply and demand.

However, the problem is that the weight of the money is not always apparent for several reasons. Remember, simply knowing supply and demand doesn’t allow you to choose and market to your niche correctly. You need indicators, and they aren’t always apparent with the WOM dynamic

The problems, why WOM isn’t a black and white issue any more:

1. Market manipulators – as the guy who runs betting exchange traders noted in his own post, these guys will place fluff orders with no intention of ever getting filled. They want to manipulate the dynamic so that us traders follow them, causing a sudden price shift in one direction. That’s when they match their real bet, and remove their fluff order, causing the price to swing back sharply as the traders react to the trend by forcing it in another direction. This is especially painful if you have bought high. You can see this process happens when a genuine order for £40,000 (or some other insane amount) comes in and the punter chases the price upwards (or downwards if he wants to back it). Often when he is gone, the price will swing back.

2. Big amounts attract big amounts – although I have never been a big punter (straight backer or layer), I imagine that if I was, I would I have got stung many times by sticking my order in for £2000 and watching traders jump in front of me, costing me money as I chase my price upwards. With this in mind it would make more sense for me to wait for a big order to come in on the side I want to get matched on, and take it as soon as it happens (or indeed wait for the price to move in my favour). So, in other words, any big amount on one side is likely to attract bigger amounts on other other side. I do not have firm evidence for this, it is purely anecdotal, but I certainly believe it is the truth.

3. There are still people who aren’t trading – of course, many punters on Betfair are straight backers and layers. These guys have no respect for the WOM dynamic, and their money flies in from every direction. With the amount of tipping services and backing / laying systems out there, money flies in all over the place, disrupting the perfect WOM flow.

4. Randomness – this is the main reason that it is not easy to spot the WOM on the most popular markets. On an average British horse race, you can get thousands flying in on either side – in a few seconds. Money comes and goes so quickly, it’s hard to know what’s what. You need to be fast, skilled, experienced, have a big bank, and have the right trading software if you expect to trade on British horse races.

Why do you need a big bank?

Because, as you may now know, WOM trading is difficult, so you want to make very few trades – only when you are 100% sure. If you can back or lay with a £2,000 bank once per race, you can come out with a very solid profit for the day.

Not so for punters without the large bank (and even then ignoring the skill and the other factors).

So, in summary, yes WOM does still work but on the larger markets (read: British horse racing), the competition has been stepped up a notch or six.

So all you newbies – don’t expect a free lunch

Yep. . .

Nice of them to keep everyone informed with a timely post, customer service kings bf. . .

7.30 & we had a power cut - we live in the middle of nowhere & I was saved by my ipad then bf went down - makes you think

after a lot of thought i'm hugely on laying the draw in bangladesh rather than india - both around 3.1

2 days gone & its moved on & as far as I can see the worst case scenario is the day ends with banga 200 behind & still need to bat 5 sessions for a draw - thats not a 2/1 shot

one game I have too much knowledge of is plymouth v chesterfield - and the spireites are not a 2.6 shot - its got to the stage that even many argyle fans hope for a defeat so at last the manager will be fired and we can move on - morale is v low and no sign of a goal anywhere - chesterfield may be sub 2.4 by ko

*3rd, 11th, 8th, 1st, 5th and 4th