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am i the youngest formumite on here?

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By:
smithy91
When: 20 Nov 12 16:20
yeh i'm watching bate market to Laugh

malky you can't bet against your own team hahaWink
By:
malky1
When: 20 Nov 12 16:25
money comes before loyalty these days smithy, no more heart ruleling my head Laugh
By:
sweetchildofmine
When: 20 Nov 12 16:26
fkin hell up and down like jordans knickers Scared
By:
sweetchildofmine
When: 20 Nov 12 16:36
im seriously considering a mammoth lay of lille and to hell with my green book
By:
malky1
When: 20 Nov 12 16:40
sweet if you fancy go for it liile are siht
By:
sweetchildofmine
When: 20 Nov 12 16:52
iv kept my green on bate and draw and gone red lille ...they really are woefull
By:
smithy91
When: 20 Nov 12 17:09
great stuff guys i'm doing lille game to they are terribleLaugh
By:
sweetchildofmine
When: 20 Nov 12 17:10
biggest danger is the fog, cant see a fukin thing
By:
smithy91
When: 20 Nov 12 17:17
1-0 lille oh dearLaugh
By:
sweetchildofmine
When: 20 Nov 12 17:17
lol im not worried tbh still fancy bate strongly
By:
smithy91
When: 20 Nov 12 17:29
i've got a big red on lille to as a 2/1 shot i was trading their price as the goal went inCry
By:
sweetchildofmine
When: 20 Nov 12 17:29
mind i must admit their finishing is atrocious ffs
By:
green army
When: 20 Nov 12 17:32
oh dear - good luck chaps - I'm watching moscow, I can see how celtic won here

I'm on oldham at 2.62 at hartlepool - hartlepool are the poorest form side in the entire football league haven't won in 10 - only won 1 game this season - lost 0-5 at home to coventry on saturday

do we reckon overs has any more mileage at juve ?
By:
sweetchildofmine
When: 20 Nov 12 17:32
oh well thats that then
By:
malky1
When: 20 Nov 12 17:40
doing my dough to lads fickin lille Cry
By:
smithy91
When: 20 Nov 12 19:14
Soccer / BATE Borisov v Lille : Next Goal 20-Nov-12 17:00  20-Nov-12 18:54  235.72
Soccer / BATE Borisov v Lille : Match Odds 20-Nov-12 17:00  20-Nov-12 18:54  -511.98

not to dissapointed with the damage here had a big position when lille scored against the run of play. borisov missed a load of chances in the first half then were non existent for the second half. still had great value on lille my lay was a 2/1 shot when the market had lille at 3.65 before the goalHappy
By:
smithy91
When: 20 Nov 12 19:18
man united price has come back in for you united backers not actually that bad of a line to be fair from them. i'm up £20 on cluj vs braga probably the most boring market i've ever tradedCry
By:
smithy91
When: 20 Nov 12 19:28
guys what do think about real madrids price at man city surely they shouldn't be lower than 2.3. its something like 40 games since city last lost at home and they will surely be up for this. i'm at the front of the queue backing over 2.5 at 1.59 in the same game
By:
no moves
When: 20 Nov 12 19:53
My tip for the week


Lay Everton at 1.5 at Norwich (you might be able to get 1.49 if your greedy)

The Canaries are flying at the moment with no losses in their last 6 games including  Norwich's last contest against Manchester United which they were victorious.

Everton have recorded only one win in the same period; for the life of me I can't see where the layers have got the 1.5, for an Everton victory from.

On Saturday I will be trying to obtain a bigger price on Everton in order to hopefully guarantee a successfull bet before the match starts.
By:
Andriy
When: 20 Nov 12 20:09
Personally i wouldn't want to lay Everton, but if i were i'd be looking to trade the draw instead (B2L) since it will give you a better ROI.
By:
sweetchildofmine
When: 20 Nov 12 20:32
grrr when you said everton at 1.5 AT norwich i thought id won the lottery, but theyre at home Cry
By:
ZEALOT
When: 20 Nov 12 20:37
If you could play this game under exact circumstances over 300 times , impossible i know Happy   lay Everton @ 1.5 you would be sitting on a nice little pile of cash .
By:
smithy91
When: 20 Nov 12 22:07
some crazy movement in zenit v malaga i got 2k at 1.82 on zenit after seeing pinny cut to 1.73 and all blue on oddschecker. layed real madrid at 2.24 and pinny have cut them to 2.15 which just isn't an accurate price for their chances to win at the etihad
By:
no moves
When: 20 Nov 12 23:02
If I gave the impression that Norwich are at home I apologise.

Now if Everton were away in this match, 1.5 would trully be a wheelbarrow job for the layers and here in rural Norfolk we have a lot of them.
By:
kenilworth
When: 21 Nov 12 01:23
Everton flatter to deceive. Had a softish start and anyone
backing them in every league match so fsr this season,
would be well behind.
By:
green army
When: 21 Nov 12 08:57
besides lots of goals at the etihad struggling tonite

however montpelier at 11 looks tempting - the are the french champs and after a slow start are 4 unbeaten including a draw with psg - and I recall qpr were 9s - the frenchies shouldn't start longer than them
By:
sweetchildofmine
When: 21 Nov 12 09:54
if you laid the draw at 2.66 you can now green up at around 2.8
By:
smithy91
When: 21 Nov 12 12:31
Nice call that on arsenal green army I missed the boat there though. Some big trading on zenit price I've been backing 1.8-1.82 and front of the queue laying 1.78 waiting for it to go back in so can fully green up. Not sure if real Madrid price will go back but would be surprised if they came in further.
By:
I.quit.my.country
When: 21 Nov 12 12:49
I didn't watch any games last night but it sounds like a convincing beating for Chelsea and for me. Market doesn't like The Rent Boys and neither do I now.

On the paper trades (depending on the market moving the same when I put my own money in)

31 trades (2 weeks); 17 won, 3 scratched, 11 lost (64% success rate).

+€660 profit, using €1000 stakes.

Say max RISK per €1000 staked is €100, gives me a ROI of 21%

I look at this as betting on a price movement rather than 'trading'. If you aim to make more than your stop loss, you are effectively betting odds-against on a price going north or south. It is the same as betting on a match outcome in that respect. So if you are betting odds-against anything over 50% strike rate will bring you profit.

Sounds good on paper, gonna carry on through December and if I still have the same results will start properly in the New Year. I just have this deep feeling that the market will not move the same when you put a couple of grand in it. My tissues are automated so my predictions will always be consistent.

I don't look at form when predicting price movements. I only compare my prices with BF and work within parameters. Prices don't move as far as dogs or horses, where if you don't act quick you see a car crash TV. With football you have time (pre match) so I don't class it as trading. Trading for me is making quick, instant decisions and going in and out of markets several times.

One thing I've learnt though is that team news is vital. Example Chelsea yesterday: I wrote why Juve steaming? It's because someone knew (in and around the squad) the team Matteo was playing (no striker). This info is not available to the regular punter until an hour before KO. In this respect we will always be behind.
By:
smithy91
When: 21 Nov 12 12:55
Nice return that I quit my country. The reason I use bigger stakes now is so I don't have to look for 20 tick moves all the time. Less movement bigger stakes
By:
I.quit.my.country
When: 21 Nov 12 13:04
ok mate one question? Do you see immediate resistance when you put your money in (i.e. some idiot going against you)
By:
sweetchildofmine
When: 21 Nov 12 13:44
any unquoted 6.4 at the etihad?? wtf?  yeah there will be goals but can you see either team racking up four?
By:
I.quit.my.country
When: 21 Nov 12 13:55
anything is possible when Ronnie is on the field. i would imagine City will wanna keep it tight early doors, so it should trade lower. But you never know in football.

I'm reading The Secret Footballer, you never know what's happening behind the scenes. Half of them are c u n t s and we invest our hard-earned on them when they don't give a s h i t. That's why you can't beat greyhounds. The best value on BF (regularly you get 4-1 on what should be a 2-1 shot). But the most important thing is once those lids rise, there is nothing a human can do to affect the result.
By:
kenilworth
When: 21 Nov 12 14:01
IQMC, 4/1 about a 2/1 chance. Who can say which is the correct price ?
The 4/1 is probably the correct price but that doesn't mean you will
win backing them.
By:
green army
When: 21 Nov 12 14:12
dont think its moving much SCOM - Real score 4 in a good % of games - as do City at home - I do think 3-3 and the 3-2s have a couple of points to come in tho - look at say the 2-1s, the discrepancy is too high for the type of match we're likely to see tonite

malaga are a very good side, certainly the best side in this group but they have already qualified , hence the Zenit back I assume - also its freezing in St Petersburg

however malaga need something from their 2 games to win the group , have a full squad including their top class argentinians and have only conceded 2 goals on the road in 6 games in la liga - in the press conference Demichelis commented "Christ I love my girlfriend Emily Jane" - which wasn't too helpful

expect a low scoring game with 1-0 malaga maybe be popular at these prices
By:
malky1
When: 21 Nov 12 14:13
why do you call chelsea rent boys i quit?
By:
sweetchildofmine
When: 21 Nov 12 14:18
anything is possible when Ronnie is on the field. i would imagine City will wanna keep it tight early doors, so it should trade lower. But you never know in football.

I'm reading The Secret Footballer, you never know what's happening behind the scenes. Half of them are c u n t s and we invest our hard-earned on them when they don't give a s h i t. That's why you can't beat greyhounds. The best value on BF (regularly you get 4-1 on what should be a 2-1 shot). But the most important thing is once those lids rise, there is nothing a human can do to affect the result.


probably is mate, humans have usually affected the result before the lids rise
By:
I.quit.my.country
When: 21 Nov 12 14:43
^not at bags meetings. You have to say all sport is corrupt but with drug testing at every meeting and vets on hand, checking em over before they go in. Dogs (bags) is 99% clean IMO. You have to believe what we bet on is legit or you shouldn't bet. I would say horses, football, tennis, darts, etc is more corrupt.

Ken don't talk to me about greyhounds. i have UNIQUE ratings, 6 months of data, thousands of races and prices. I can spot the value a mile off and know the steamers. It's harder to price up a greyhound race, hence the ricks and the gambles. Only through hard work and after 6 months of profit, I can say I get the value.
By:
I.quit.my.country
When: 21 Nov 12 14:52
malky1
why do you call chelsea rent boys i quit?


Just a dumb terrace chant. You never heard of the Chelsea Rent Boys? Think it may have something to do with Graeme Le Saux (unfounded).
By:
I.quit.my.country
When: 21 Nov 12 15:01
I change that to there is corruption at some level in all sports rather than all sport is corrupt. We can only hope it evens itself over time if we are involved in a corrupt event. Same applies to team news when predicting price movements. We are always gonna be behind, just hope we are on the right side more often than the other.
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