General Betting
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FOOTBALL BETS TESTING A THEORY WHICH
FOOTBALL BETS TESTING A THEORY WHICH
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Pity re 2-2 back ...now 1-3.......
Time for kipppppppppppppp G M the nooooooooo |
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DFCIRONMAN 21 Feb 12 22:21
IQMC- where on this thread can you see me "predicting" outcomes....other than bets being placed? DFCIRONMAN 21 Feb 12 22:25 FOOTBALL is difficult to have an "edge" on.......compared to HORSE RACING...... CS LAYS are odds on bets.......and it is possible to do well with certain types of games.....and it is not "all about" odds with such bets, though you don't bet when odds are DAFT ones..... I layed 2-2 in CHELSEA game tonight......as believed NAPOLI would score again...I probably layed above the odds though ...I admit....but the call this time was "right" re outcome...though I never said what I believed the outcome would be.... GL with bets ...Away to watch game......cheers the noooooooooooo Wrong. You are not going to spot the value rambling from one game to the next like what you are doing. Draw up some flters |
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Categorise the games. Watch the correct score market. 100 games should give you more of an idea. Just because you are not efficient doesnt mean nobody is efficient. Remember of course, when you are losing, someone is winning and they are not winning because they are better guessers than you
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One obvious question is if you admittedly have no edge then why are you spunking money ? Money is money no matter how big or small. I'd prefer to concentrate on where i did Best rather than wasting time on entertainment bets. Talking of entertainment, what's entertaining about 0-0 argentinian football. Because of betting i now Find football incredibly dull.
Talking of filters, i used to compile horse ratings and i Found betting the 4th rated was the biggest earner. But there was no logic in betting the 4th Best just because it produced good results over a length of time, it is obvious it would not continue for ever. There are Golden eggs out there that Will last a long time, but when you use filters, there has to be logic to Them. Cutting argentinian football because it wasn't kind to you and france, brazil, etc. It is so easy to back fit, but soon you Will have no countries left and no games to play in. I target specific games, races. Out of the thousands of football matches, horse races and dog races each week, i only play in 80. These 80 events i dont find randomly, they are brought to my attention, using filters. I May play in 80 events, but they are the same events week in, week out. It May be a different match/ race, with a different outcome, but the markets are the same and i Can spot the value instantly. Anyway enough from mé, Have a good day predicting football scores and watching overpaid players not trying enough. Dont they know you are balls-deep on 0-0? The b a s t a r d s. Rather you than mé but whatever floats your boat. |
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DAY 2 RESULTS
Football: £41.32 PROFIT Football Showing 1 - 14 of 14 markets Market Start time Settled date Profit/loss (£) Football / Bolivar v Union Espanola : Half Time/Full Time 22-Feb-12 00:30 22-Feb-12 02:23 83.95 Football / Bolivar v Union Espanola : Correct Score 22-Feb-12 00:30 22-Feb-12 02:23 -1.00 Football / Bolivar v Union Espanola : Match Odds 22-Feb-12 00:30 22-Feb-12 02:22 -25.08 Football / Bolivar v Union Espanola : Half Time 22-Feb-12 00:30 22-Feb-12 01:19 -2.00 ============================================================== Football / Penarol v Atletico Nacional : Correct Score 21-Feb-12 22:15 21-Feb-12 23:58 13.57 ============================================================== Football / Napoli v Chelsea : Correct Score 21-Feb-12 19:45 21-Feb-12 21:42 22.90 ============================================================== Football / Tours v Le Havre : Half Time/Full Time 21-Feb-12 19:00 21-Feb-12 20:48 -27.00 Football / Tours v Le Havre : Correct Score 21-Feb-12 19:00 21-Feb-12 20:48 -37.86 ============================================================== Football / Bologna v Fiorentina : Half Time/Full Time 21-Feb-12 17:30 21-Feb-12 19:26 40.85 Football / Bologna v Fiorentina : Correct Score 21-Feb-12 17:30 21-Feb-12 19:26 32.15 Football / Bologna v Fiorentina : Match Odds 21-Feb-12 17:30 21-Feb-12 19:26 -71.04 ============================================================== Football / Modena v Albinoleffe : Half Time/Full Time 21-Feb-12 17:30 21-Feb-12 19:20 -30.00 Football / Modena v Albinoleffe : Correct Score 21-Feb-12 17:30 21-Feb-12 19:20 -2.00 Football / Modena v Albinoleffe : Match Odds 21-Feb-12 17:30 21-Feb-12 19:20 43.88 ============================================================== SUMMARY ON THREAD SO FAR - DAY 1........profit £ 39.70 DAY 2........profit...41.32 --------- CUMULATIVE PROFIT...£ 81.02 ================================================================ As stated at start of thread, I am "experimenting" with bets based on some "daft" notions I have on FOOTBALL matches. FRANCE games are now banned from the thread. I suspected they would not "work" with the ideas I have, due to it likely games would be UNDER 2.5 goals that I would select( they are not random games IQMC......!) Some people bet on such outcomes, but I don't like betting on them ....or watching such games, where the mentality of players is "negative" re scoring goals. IQMC.....guess what....this is a FILTER move   .....In fact IQMC........not sure how you arrive at the "confusion" re me not being selective on games. Each game on this thread has been selected for a reason.......to "test" certain ideas I have on how games may work out, other than last night last 3 games, which were INTERNATIONAL CLUB cup competitions which were selected based on how I normally select such games. When I say I don't have an "edge" re FOOTBALL IQMC.........I am comparing it to HORSE RACING, where I do have numerous edges due to the complexity of that sport.......however, I do have a fair knowledge of FOOTBALL so will persist with "testing" the notions I have re the game in certain countries. Considering, most of MAIN BETS have not gone the way I wanted the bet to go , then as on the thread I am making a PROFIT .....early doors as that might be......then in circumstances the PROFIT can only be the result of me finding VALUE in odds for bets ....as well as LUCK....which with FOOTBALL you need more than on HORSE RACING.The thread is not on the topic of CS LAYS, though with games I might do a CS LAY bet where allI know re the game is used to place bet at odds I consider "VALUE" ( with football it is far harder to "measure value" when the margins re odds are so narrow......with HORSE RACING you can devise ways to find VALUE where the VALUE stands out far more clearly than with FOOTBALL) BTW......On previous CS LAY thread did make a fairly "large" profit ( just over £20,000 from starting bank £2,000 over about 7/8months) , through CS LAYS on CLUB games.........I lost most of it...not all.....re CS LAYS on INTERNATIONAL matches. This was all part of "learning curve" re FOOTBALL betting on CS LAYS. On the other CS LAYS thread on here( current)......YUP- I am losing some money.....about just over £200, which is not a huge amount to lose over a short period. With CS LAYS you can relatively quickly get back into profit, but currently I want to develop some ideas on this thread so that is why shelving CS LAY thread for now. Currently on this thread, using a relatively small bank of approx £ 400 allocated for this thread) , after 2 days have over £80 profit. I suspect most people would consider that not "spunking" money away........ I know it is only 2 days......but I feel it is worth pursuing the notions I have on certain countries club football .....so will continue to do so. HORSE RACING is still my main interest, and, as currently updating stats into system, it will be mid-MARCH 2012 before I can use system professionally. This thread is just to see how the "notions" work out..... GL with bets. |
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I.quit.my.country 22 Feb 12 07:32
==================================================== DFCIRONMAN 21 Feb 12 22:21 IQMC- where on this thread can you see me "predicting" outcomes....other than bets being placed? DFCIRONMAN 21 Feb 12 22:25 FOOTBALL is difficult to have an "edge" on.......compared to HORSE RACING...... CS LAYS are odds on bets.......and it is possible to do well with certain types of games.....and it is not "all about" odds with such bets, though you don't bet when odds are DAFT ones..... I layed 2-2 in CHELSEA game tonight......as believed NAPOLI would score again...I probably layed above the odds though ...I admit....but the call this time was "right" re outcome...though I never said what I believed the outcome would be.... GL with bets ...Away to watch game......cheers the noooooooooooo ===================================================== Wrong. You are not going to spot the value rambling from one game to the next like what you are doing. Draw up some flters ===================================================================== IQMC - sorry ....but you are "wrong" re not being able to "spot the value"......... If you are watching a match, and you recognise how the game is being played, and you know the record of bith teams and also players and the style of play of both clubs......then you can "spot the value" in placing a bet that you feel is appropriate to that game. The CHELSEA game last night was one such game, where the biased commentators believed that CHELSEA would win the game at 0-1.....then at 1-1.....then they still believed at 2-1 CHESEA would score.... If watching game...and nowing how a team can play, it was clear to me anyway that it was more likely NAPOLI would score again against a defence that was patched together, and with their more fluent style of play. They beat MAN CITY 2-1....another team of robots..........CHELSEA are a worse team than MAN CITY, so at 2-1 why should they get to 2-2 ??? Were the odds at 2-2 VALUE when I layed them.......YES IMO.......as VALUE in such circumstances is a subjective figure where some will say I layed over the odds , they may be "right", some might say I did lay at VALUE odds....it is down to opinion on outcome. However, I "won" the bet on lay on 2-2, therefor the question re finding VALUE on the bet is answered by the result! Making the bet was not a bet without thought, it was a bet taking many many factors into account, and also by watching match . It was not a "rambling" bet as you believe IQMC.....but , as with any bet, having a view on the outcome of event must improve your chances of winning the bet.....IMO. Some people believe that having a view is irrelevant re the outcome of a sporting event.....BUT, with FOOTBALL, having a view on outcome is more important than say having a view on which horse will win a race. It is far easier to find VALUE with a HORSE RACE than it is with a football match........and you are not dealing with a TEAM SPORT. With CS LAY thread when made over £20,000 profit over 7/8months with £2,000 starting bank........I did take on many games.....and it might look as if I was "rambling" from game to game.....but IMO you can take on ANY game and find VALUE somewhere in the markets. With football the factors are not so complex as with HORSE RACING, so you can evaluate a game relatively quickly and place a bet at odds considered "reasonable" value.....NOT DAFT ODDS! As stated above, the margins of value are much smaller with FOOTBALL than with HORSE RACING, so it is easier to spot value in a HORSE RACE than with a FOOTBALL match IMO. You might call it "rambling" ......but i call it being "quick" on making a decision.....  Anyway ...I'd better crack on with updating HORSE SYSTEM data........ Cheers the noooooooooo ...and GL with bets. |
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DAY 3- GAME 1
Fixtures 22 February / Siena v Catania / Correct Score 1 - 0 Lay 22-Feb-12 14:54 7.4 12.00 7.4 22-Feb-12 14:54 Fixtures 22 February / Siena v Catania / Correct Score 3 - 1 Back 22-Feb-12 14:54 26 3.00 26 22-Feb-12 14:54 Fixtures 22 February / Siena v Catania / Correct Score 2 - 0 Back 22-Feb-12 14:54 10.5 2.00 10.5 22-Feb-12 14:54 Fixtures 22 February / Siena v Catania / Over/Under 3.5 Goals Over 3.5 Goals Back 22-Feb-12 14:54 4.8 6.00 4.8 22-Feb-12 14:54 Fixtures 22 February / Siena v Catania / Correct Score 0 - 0 Back 22-Feb-12 14:53 9.2 2.00 9.2 22-Feb-12 14:53 Fixtures 22 February / Siena v Catania / Half Time/Full Time Siena/Draw Back 22-Feb-12 14:53 17 3.00 17 22-Feb-12 14:53 Fixtures 22 February / Siena v Catania / Match Odds Siena Lay 22-Feb-12 14:53 2.14 42.00 2.14 22-Feb-12 14:53 Fixtures 22 February / Siena v Catania / Half Time/Full Time Draw/Siena Back 14:52 5.7 4.00 5.7 22-Feb-12 14:52 Fixtures 22 February / Siena v Catania / Half Time/Full Time Catania/Siena Back 22-Feb-12 14:52 42 2.00 42 22-Feb-12 14:52 Fixtures 22 February / Siena v Catania / Half Time/Full Time Siena/Siena Back 22-Feb-12 14:52 3.55 15.00 3.6 22-Feb-12 14:52 ============================================================================= MAIN BET is LAY on 1-0. OTHER BETS - LAY on SIENNA with some cover bets using HT/FT market + 2-0 and 3-1 backs. Ideal scenario is away team having lead at HT. GL with bets. |
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DAY 3- GAME 2
Fixtures 22 February / Man City v Porto / Half Time/Full Time Draw/Porto Lay 22-Feb-12 16:28 17 12.00 17 22-Feb-12 16:28 =========================================================================== Fair chance 1 of em is ahead at HT......probably MC. Gl with bets. |
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All the best DFC, it may be an idea for us to restart a CS Laying thread, that one qwe had a few years ago was quite unbelievable!.
Is Jimbobjones still about? Take care x |
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Cheers TOTGA
I think I saw him posting to a CS LAY thread on FOOTBALL forum????? Not been on GENERAL BETTING FORUM for a long time, as far as i am aware!!!! Hope he is in good health. Please start another thread Jodie , as I am preoccupied with HORSE RACING "work" at present, and also fitting in this thread etc Good to get you back involved again.....as IT CAN BE DONE....but really tests your boredom threshold sometimes, as well as nerves ...now and then  I've gotta go help with tea .....so GL with new thread ....I'm sure acornel will be back once he has got his bots in order In meantime - ======================================================================== DAY 3 - GAMES 3/ 4 AND 5 Fixtures 22 February / Linense SP v Mirassol / Over/Under 2.5 goals Over 2.5 Goals Lay 22-Feb-12 17:34 1.74 33.00 1.74 22-Feb-12 17:34 ============================================= Fixtures 22 February / Ponte Preta v Ituano / Over/Under 2.5 goals Over 2.5 Goals Back 22-Feb-12 17:31 1.68 60.00 1.68 22-Feb-12 17:31 ============================================== Fixtures 22 February / Santos v Comercial SP / Over/Under 2.5 goals Over 2.5 Goals Back 22-Feb-12 17:31 1.56 60.00 1.56 22-Feb-12 17:31 ============================================== Cheers the nooooooooooooooooooooo |
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GAME 1 - currently 0-1 so SIENNA lay ok so far......
Have reduced liability a bit though in case goes to DRAw at HT... |
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SIENA even................
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GAME 1 - HT 0-1.....so initial main lays on SIENA and 1-0 have come off.
Profit made ...no matter what happens......and 3-1 home team would give big profits for amounts outlayed....could happen...but unlikely. |
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LAYING 0-1 to gain £12 if a goal in SIENA game...could finish 1-1 yet
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GAME 1 finished 0-1 re SIENA game. Profit of only £14 .....but could have been quadruple that had SIENA managed to win game.
At least the MAIN LAY came off re SIENA and 1-0 LAY....not happened too often on thread ...SO FAR! |
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DAY 3 - GAME 6
Fixtures 22 February / Marseille v Inter / Correct Score 0 - 0 Lay 22-Feb-12 19:34 10.5 15.00 10.5 22-Feb-12 19:34 ======================================================================= Just likely INTER score...or MARS. Gl with bets. |
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Concerned re 0-0 LAY in MARS game ...so layed 1-1 ...and backed 0-0 a wee bit.
I will lay the profit off 0-0 in 2nd half ...if get chance. 1-1 score FT will be expensive.......but clinical finishing not happening in this match. |
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Decided to take in INTER game :-
loss ....£ 6 on 0-0 profit...£15 on 1-0 profit..£10 on 0-1 loss ...£205 on 1-1 any other score loss £4 Probably will wipe out loss on 1-1 if I get the chance if stays 0-0 a while. |
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Backed 1-1 to eliminate liability on lay almost with £10 on at 21s....
may lay 0-0 in a few mins... |
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Have layed 0-0 now ..and will take a small hit of £26 on 0-0 FT....if stays that way
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Oh well the goal came ...but was a bit late....£19 profit off that game.
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GAMES 3/4 + 5 HT SCORES
1-0 LINENSE 0-0 PONTE PRETA 1-0 SANTOS So layed UNDER 2.5 goals again in PONTE PRETA game...hoping for 2nd half 3 goals... Fixtures 22 February / Ponte Preta v Ituano / Over/Under 2.5 goals Under 2.5 Goals Lay 22-Feb-12 22:16 1.28 24.00 1.28 22-Feb-12 22:16 |
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Eliminated liability on OVER 2.5 in LINENSE game...other 2 games in the balance still!
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In PONTE PRETA game layed 0-0 to gain £24 and backed 2-0 with £3,,,,,,hopefully at least a goal will be scored...some bad misses in that one SO FAR!
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SANTOS are my top JINX team .....will they get to a OVER 2.5 goal game? Currently only 1-0 from early in 1st half.......................
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LAYED 1-0 in SANTOS game ......hopefully the JINX team score again....to gain £24 in CS market
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LAYED SANTOS 1-0 AGAIN....TO GAIN ANOTHER £24 ...IF A GOAL
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Same in PONTE PRETA game....
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2-0 SANTOS
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PONTE PRETA 1-0
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Another goal in SANTOS game would enable good profit on that game....
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or if PONTE go to 2-0 as well !
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GAMES 3/4 + 5 FT SCORES
1-1 LINENSE 1-0 PONTE PRETA 2-0 SANTOS Luckily got a goal in PP and SANTOS games....so damage not as bad on those 2 games....this time. |
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SANTOS are still my JINX team ....
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Still ahead on DAY 3 by about £17......so could have been a lot worse though....or much better IF SANTOS had scored again....................
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GAMES 7 + 8 ON DAY 3
Fixtures 22 February / Portuguesa SP v Corinthians / Match Odds Portuguesa SP Lay 22-Feb-12 23:33 4.9 48.00 4.87 22-Feb-12 23:33 Fixtures 22 February / Portuguesa SP v Corinthians / Half Time/Full Time Portuguesa SP/Draw Back 22-Feb-12 23:33 20 2.00 20 22-Feb-12 23:33 Fixtures 22 February / Portuguesa SP v Corinthians / Half Time/Full Time Portuguesa SP/Portuguesa SP Back 22-Feb-12 23:33 8.8 24.00 8.8 22-Feb-12 23:33 ====================================================================== Fixtures 22 February / Bragantino SP v Sao Paulo / Over/Under 2.5 goals Over 2.5 Goals Back 22-Feb-12 23:31 1.84 36.00 1.84 22-Feb-12 23:31 ====================================================================== GL with bets. |
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29' Bragantino/SP 2-1 (-) São Paulo/SP OVER2.5 WAS "QUICK"!!!!
=================================== COR 0-1 NOW TOO ...SO MAY GET INTO GOOD PROFIT YET! |
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As 0-1 in COR game ...the HT/FT bet covers home team winning.....so all green on both last 2matches...and time for kippppppppppppppp
G M the nooooooooooooooooooooo |
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DAY 3 RESULTS
Soccer: £50.63 PROFIT Soccer Showing 1 - 17 of 17 markets Market Start time Settled date Profit/loss (£) Soccer / Bragantino SP v Sao Paulo : Correct Score 22-Feb-12 23:59 23-Feb-12 01:53 -6.00 Soccer / Portuguesa SP v Corinthians : Half Time/Full Time 22-Feb-12 23:59 23-Feb-12 01:49 -28.00 Soccer / Portuguesa SP v Corinthians : Correct Score 22-Feb-12 23:59 23-Feb-12 01:49 -5.00 Soccer / Portuguesa SP v Corinthians : Match Odds 22-Feb-12 23:59 23-Feb-12 01:49 45.79 Soccer / Portuguesa SP v Corinthians : Half Time 22-Feb-12 23:59 23-Feb-12 00:45 -2.00 Soccer / Bragantino SP v Sao Paulo : Over/Under 2.5 goals 22-Feb-12 23:59 23-Feb-12 00:28 28.85 Soccer / Linense SP v Mirassol : Over/Under 2.5 goals 22-Feb-12 21:30 22-Feb-12 23:24 17.92 Soccer / Santos v Comercial SP : Correct Score 22-Feb-12 21:30 22-Feb-12 23:23 45.79 Soccer / Santos v Comercial SP : Over/Under 2.5 goals 22-Feb-12 21:30 22-Feb-12 23:22 -60.00 Soccer / Ponte Preta v Ituano : Correct Score 22-Feb-12 21:30 22-Feb-12 23:22 42.93 Soccer / Ponte Preta v Ituano : Over/Under 2.5 goals 22-Feb-12 21:30 22-Feb-12 23:22 -66.72 Soccer / Marseille v Inter : Correct Score 22-Feb-12 19:45 22-Feb-12 21:39 19.01 Soccer / Siena v Catania : Half Time/Full Time 22-Feb-12 17:30 22-Feb-12 19:25 -24.00 Soccer / Siena v Catania : Correct Score 22-Feb-12 17:30 22-Feb-12 19:24 0.36 Soccer / Siena v Catania : Over/Under 3.5 Goals 22-Feb-12 17:30 22-Feb-12 19:24 -6.00 Soccer / Siena v Catania : Match Odds 22-Feb-12 17:30 22-Feb-12 19:23 36.25 Soccer / Man City v Porto : Half Time/Full Time 22-Feb-12 17:00 22-Feb-12 18:59 11.45 =================================================================== SUMMARY ON THREAD SO FAR - DAY 1........profit £ 39.70 DAY 2........profit...41.32 DAY 3........profit...50.63 --------- CUMULATIVE PROFIT...£ 130.65 ============================================================================ SANTOS , as usual, stil a team that are "hard" for me to guess their outcome......so lost about £15 on their match. had they scored another goal would have made around about £90 more profit on DAY 3. Still "early doors" ,....whatever that means....but a "good" start so far. Pity about me only BACKING OVER 2.5 goals in BRAGANTINO game, as the bet "indicated" to me was that there would be at least 4 goals in game.....DRATTTTTTTTTT finished 3-3. GL with bets today. |
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DAY 4- GAMES 1/2 + 3
Fixtures 23 February / Valencia v Stoke / Correct Score 0 - 1 Lay 23-Feb-12 17:20 26 12.00 26 23-Feb-12 17:20 ============================================================================ Fixtures 23 February / PAOK v Udinese / Correct Score 2 - 2 Back 23-Feb-12 17:19 30 2.00 30 23-Feb-12 17:19 Fixtures 23 February / PAOK v Udinese / Half Time/Full Time Draw/Draw Lay 23-Feb-12 17:18 5.1 12.00 5.1 23-Feb-12 17:18 ============================================================================== Fixtures 23 February / Ath Bilbao v Lokomotiv / Half Time Score 1 - 1 Lay 23-Feb-12 17:12 11 12.00 11 23-Feb-12 17:12 ============================================================================ GL with bets. |