Not enough to want to succeed at it!!

well the guy who quit, he had already quit his job to go pro on betfair. he was making ok money but the amount of hours he was putting in and the lack of any kind of social release, it just wasn't worth it.

if you want to make 30 quid a day and are happy to put the hours in, forget about systems. just go on markets where there is little liquidity and put prices up. people will always take stupid odds about anything. its taking advantage of human greed and impatience. I would be willing to bet that at least 90 percent of people on betfair just take whatever's up there, they can't be arsed to wait for a bet to be matched.

so lets say a horse goes off 2.5... time and time again you see that impatient mugs have gone in and backed the thing at 1.5, cus they can't be bothered to put a bet up at 2.5 and hope that it gets matched. they just think it's going to win so don't really care about the price. the last thing they are thinking about is some kind of long-term mathematical approach.

of course this only works to small stakes. once the big money comes in, the odds get to about the right level. with such small liquidity you could never make much out of such an approach, but its ideal with the sort of money/hours you are looking to put in.

the only drawback is bots. this kind of thing is ideal if you have bots, but if you don't, then someone will always be undercutting you.

I would be willing to bet that at least 90 percent of people on betfair just take whatever's up there, they can't be arsed to wait for a bet to be matched.

i would say 99%

red card in Sante Fe match, they will fook you up to doing a lay the draw blindly

yeah I was being conservative [;)]

but seriously again its an approach which has very little downside. occasionally something you will lay at 3-1 because you think its a 5-1 shot and you are hoping to catch out some greedy punters, and they'll be a big gamble and it'll go off at 6-4 and you'll feel stupid. but as you won't be laying it for much money anyway its hardly going to kill you.

like I say the problem is not really whether these systems/approaches work, but whether you have the patience and discipline to do them over and over again. and not revert to older less reliable betting habits when they start going wrong.

they are quite boring and sometimes I just want to have a big punt on something

red cards aswell as goals cause changes in draw price. thats all.  Paulme mentioned quick goals which will mess it up to.

Dont think anyone has mentioned red cards yet

Well red cards would sometimes work for you as well as against.    Very quick goals would be a problem, but as long as you're watching the scorelines, you should be able to jump in ahead of a second goal.

Anyway, I think we've probably concluded from this thread that the odds probably won't be there to make it work in its most basic form.   It offers a decent framework though, and with some extra statistics it could be possible to get it working in a small way.

paulme
19 Sep 11 01:49
Joined:
20 Jan 11
| Topic/replies: 3,274 | Blogger: paulme's blog
so your mate went pro on betfair using solely this method?

no, i'm not so sure what he was doing because I didn't know him that well. but I imagine it was something quite dull because he wasn't a big gambler.

in any case you can tell that some people do this kind of thing professionally. you can tell this when you try to lay a horse at 2.9 which you is 4.1 in your tissue and immediately some bot comes in and undercuts you with a 2.92

the other guy I know who is pro on here bets things like golf or tennis tournament markets, where he'll try to make an 100 percent book. he'll try and lay enough of the favourites at short enough prices so that he'll be freerolling on any outsiders. another low-risk strategy that requires inordinate amount of patience and discipline.

basically if you want to make decent money and don't want to get bored to death you have to stick your neck out and gamble.

Very quick goals would be a problem, but as long as you're watching the scorelines, you should be able to jump in ahead of a second goal.

depends is suspend monkey is wide awake. plenty of times suspend hasnt been lifted after 1st goal when 2nd goes in

ok thanks mythical

Paul, if you're using Mythical's system and theoretically getting 'value' by getting mugs to accept silly prices, then you should be ahead of the curve.  That would allow you to make money over time.

If you're getting value, you make money over a week or a month or whatever. If you're not getting value then you win one day, lose the next, win the next etc.

Racing Club never won, everyones a winner

well all of us on here discussing stuff should have an advantage over people who just log on to place a mug punt and never click on the forum

well played chaps, only a matter of time before your filthy rich!

No, well like several of us have now said several times before on this thread, we probably won't be doing it again...  So shove that smiley and put a [:x] over it!

There's the odd useful bit of info on the forums, but the amount of time it takes to find one tiny tidbit simply isn't worth it.  I come on here so that I'm a little distracted while I'm placing bets - if I'm engrossed in the forum, I probably won't be so bothered about chasing losing bets!   If I didn't have some decent strategies worked out beforehand, though, I'd probably be spending a lot more time working on those instead of being here.

I prob won't be back on that strategy, unless I can find an edge.

Why do I suspect you're tittering to yourself while writing that...

not at all, if i am tittering i use smileys

your on a good path imo, doing your own research and being methodical.