General Betting
There is currently 1 person viewing this thread.
These 202 comments are related to the topic:
Impact of PC2 a look at the FACTUAL numbers....
Impact of PC2 a look at the FACTUAL numbers....
sort by:
Show
per page
Replies: 202
|
By:
.
http://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/23542162/curious-about-some-odd-activity-at-betfair?sort_order=DESC&pg=48 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|
By:
wow... I never knew about that (I *think* the first I heard of it was an email from them).
I stand corrected. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|
By:
good post magician
id keep an open mind regarding your term 'FACTUAL' Martinch has just had his eyes opened as to the contempt and arrogance this outfit has for their customers - so if its their database, they can make it say what they like! Worse corporate measures than this, occur all the time | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|
By:
Birch2
They 'could' make it say what they like... except I monitor many of the markets live bet by bet.... so they cant lie on those sports... and to date they have not... they could pump them up with real bets... but to make an impact they would leave lose loads of cash to the Pros... so cant see them doing that either. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|
By:
when betfair will get 60% of the pro cash, it be good risk to take later on ...10 i win 4 i lose on even money bets
| |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|
By:
magician
do you think that their 'tekkie' people could bet & lay their own amounts, w/o leaving loads of cash for the pros? | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|
By:
Katverrat
no I don't think they are the sophisticated... and even that would show up as spikes in matched volume at sub second level, and that is not really happening certainly not more than previously i.e the occasional big bet is matched between refresehes that that is not seen (by me as money on the screen) but I am sure it WAS money on the screen, it is just that you cant see everything.... | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|
By:
"when betfair will get 60% of the pro cash, it be good risk to take later on ...10 i win 4 i lose on even money bets "
to pay 60% , you have to win more than 97.5% of your bets. so if you can place bet lose 10 or win 4 which you win 97.5% of the time, sounds like good bets to make  [;)] | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|
By:
if you are a 60% PC payer...
now even money chances are really 6/4 ( minus you normal com rate | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|
By:
I hate to keep sounding like I am pro pc as I dont like being charged as much as anyone and really I
have no right to argue with those that have to pay it when I dont but my general point is that if your clever surely persons can still make profits and increase them and if there liquidity is doubling and sometimes tripling every 3 years then thats around 27%-40% increased liquidity per year which will raise pro payers matched amounts and offset the charge pretty soon more so if one expands range of markets and/or bets in markets! Its all relative and just needs putting into perspective, and ok betfair are getting big payments and that money does not end up in customers bank accounts but that creates a healthy system of reliance and ensures the longevity of the eco-system and the acceptance of persistent winners as to ban them now would cut off betfairs extra profits, also betfair can hopefully use this extra income to further increase there growth and better deals for new and existing customers. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|
By:
ballabriggs
19 Aug 11 11:43 "when betfair will get 60% of the pro cash, it be good risk to take later on ...10 i win 4 i lose on even money bets " to pay 60% , you have to win more than 97.5% of your bets. so if you can place bet lose 10 or win 4 which you win 97.5% of the time, sounds like good bets to make ballabriggs, you clearly don't understand how the PC2 works, so maybe tou should stp commenting on it all the time. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|
By:
Magician, when are the next 3 month reports due to be published?
| |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|
By:
They 'could' make it say what they like... except I monitor many of the markets live bet by bet.... so they cant lie on those sports... and to date they have not...
they could pump them up with real bets... but to make an impact they would leave lose loads of cash to the Pros... so cant see them doing that either. Magician, you cannot be serious. You'll be telling us next you know when Adam Heathcote goes on holiday. At zero percent commission betfair could bump up turnover and break even without even resorting to front running or queue peeking. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|
By:
By the way, banning all the pc2 payers because they do nothing more than win would actually cripple betfair as there exchange is totally different to a conventional bookmaker. without there liquidy value
the amount of matched bets would slow down which will effect all there charging systems and flaten there current profit margins, If the start to match the bets themselves then they cannot claim to be an exchange anymore and being a bookmaker they would have to drop prices, ban all winners etc Under these conditions there longevity would be months not years as a profitable company perhaps the best option was to charge the winners more and keep them on there side but it is certainly a risky move by them raising the bar on charges! | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|
By:
can anybody post a single piece of evidence that that's actually happening, as opposed to convoluted speculation that it could be?
| |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|
By:
Well I am thinking of selling crystal balls to all the customers, not to be used for predicting the winners of races but to find out how much we can be expected to be charged for winning, what betfair will do next, what betfair want from us, what there share vale is, whos in charge of them and
i reckon my clairvoyant equipment may be the only way to find out and will sell like hot cakes[;)] | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|
By:
One thing that is certain is that betfair will continue to be successful, how much success they afford others will be a different matter
| |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|
By:
pres, I'm not saying it's happening. I'm saying that if they needed to manipulate the figures they could and would have every reason to do so.
| |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|
By:
We seem to be mainly at loggerheads these days magician. Please do not take it personally. I have to call these things as I see them.
| |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|
By:
Also pres, if they were manipulating them, evidence wouldn't exist (outside of a confession) because of the inclusion of ping-pong money in betfair's figures.
| |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|
By:
Adam Heathcote isn't trading anymore.
| |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|
By:
Why is that investor?
| |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|
By:
4 weeks now of 'like 4 like' data - enjoy
| |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|
By:
perhaps obviously (or not) the 4 weeks are posted in order - top to bottom
| |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|
By:
By my calculations, comparing the 2011 before/after July 18 figures (aka Cols 3&5):
12 Ups 20 Drops Segments on average Down by 20,084,840 Damning figures. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|
By:
JFC
what do you get if you do the samne analysis for colums 1 and 4 :o) (obviously soccer world cup needs to be discounted) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|
By:
Ok here goes..using Magician's figures and excluding soccer because of the WC
Tennis.......down 25.5% Greyhounds...down 3.3% Other........down 25.6% Golf.........down 4.2% Cricket........up 13.2% Basketball...down 28.6% Horse Racing.down 8.8% Overall......down 16.6% (slightly worse than last set of figures) Caveat...I accept no resposibility if I have made a typo | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|
By:
"Overall......down 16.6% (slightly worse than last set of figures)" :O
oh well. at least david yu is staying and not bailing ship,.. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|
By:
I understand why Betfair have done what they've done... they thought it's going to raise extra revenue, but I don't understand why they completely lost sight of the bigger picture. If this measure doesn't bring in more cash in the short term, then it sure as dammit won't in the long term.
Said this before because I totally believe it and am saying it again in light of these figures. Fundamentally a betting exchange is the epitome of a free market and a free market works best with low taxation and incentivising business. They tipped the line with this super charge which was badly, and I expect far too hastily thought through. I'm sure there are plenty of people in the company that realise they've made a massive balls up. I can't imagine too, how the majority of those people affected don't feel exploited and a large percentage of those affected are among the most important customers Betfair has. I know you need liquidity providers and recreational punters, but liquidity providers are more important per head, it's much harder and there are far fewer of them. Just like in the economy there are businesses and customers, but it's businesses that leads a country to wealth and every country knows first and foremost they need to encourage business. I know the exchange concept is unique in that given free trade it's very hard for it not to tend towards a natural monopoly and Betfair dominates as things stand, but I find it bizarre how a business thinks the best way to move forward is to alienate so many of it's most important customers who are only betting here because they have to, whereas they used to bet here because they wanted to. The brand suffers and the image suffers. It's marketing niche in the betting sector is built on it being a value product (albeit less value than it was as higher charges kick in), but it was a value product and the punters' champion. They stopped being the punters' champion around 2006/2007. There are some people who believe in the mantra (fair) winning business is bad for business on here. I don't know if some people in Betfair believe that but it's on the whole rubbish imo. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|
By:
Interesting post CLYDEBANK29. Are there any other exchanges in the world where active and successful users - who are largely liquidity providers - are penalised? I’d be interested to know.
In my case, I haven’t bet here since the Wimbledon final (around that time they announced the new charge being introduced on 18th July). I can’t see how anyone would pay 40-60% (maybe some are). It further demoralises normal PC payers from continuing to use the site and will continue to have a slow drain on the exchange as whole. If I was a normal PC payer I would be actively looking to change my habits and move away before getting anywhere near the top PC bracket. I presume from all this that Betfair are expecting reduced liquidity and increased revenues (not from the higher PC payers - any tax over 50% will be actively avoided, it’s human nature - but from Betfair taking a more active role in their markets). The problem with this could be that they’re left with a site that: (i) no longer attracts previous core users who want a purely exchange model and a largely level playing field, and (ii) continues to receive a lukewarm response from the casual punter due to many features being unnecessary and overly complicated. I will be interested in the outcome not for financial reasons as all my activity has ceased, but because I’ve spent a lot of time here in the past. Whilst I’ve done OK here over the years, I generally presumed it was a fairly symbiotic relationship between my activity and the success of Betfair. I was obviously mistaken and have effectively been shown the door. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|
By:
Are there any other exchanges in the world where active and successful users - who are largely liquidity providers - are penalised? I’d be interested to know.
If anything they will be thinking of commission reductions and incentives to stick offers up. It's a different set of rules they have to play by though as Betfair is the price maker. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|
By:
Ok here goes..using Magician's figures and excluding soccer because of the WC
Tennis.......down 25.5% Greyhounds...down 3.3% Other........down 25.6% Golf.........down 4.2% Cricket........up 13.2% Basketball...down 28.6% Horse Racing.down 8.8% Overall......down 16.6% (slightly worse than last set of figures) is that the decline for 2011 or 2010 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|
By:
that's the relative increase or decrease in turnover for 2011 in the 4 weeks after the 18th July 2011 to the four weeks before the 18th July 2011
compared to to the relative increase or decrease in turnover for the equivalent periods in 2010. So for example in 2010 if turnover increased by 5% in the 4 weeks after the 18th July 2010 compared to the 4 weeks before it and in 2011 turnover decreased by 5% in the 4 weeks from the 18th July 2011 compared to the 4 weeks before that....the relative effect (comparative decline from 2010 to 2011) would be a decline of 10% | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|
By:
I don't know why anybody bothers looking at these figures. If you stripped all two way trades from the figures the turnover would plummet but the liquidity would pretty much stay the same. If the figures showed an increase you could say betfair were playing ping-pong to boost them, if they show a decrease you could say some 60%ers have jacked it but there's been no decrease in real liquidity. A pointless exercise.
| |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|
By:
Feck you have to use what there is and that is the only measure we have. It's speculation to suggest what type of turnover that has been lost and imo commission will be lost along the same lines. If its premium charge payers that they've lost then they've also lost their original pc1 payments. Secondly, if ping pong money is easy to win then you could argue it will suffer the least and it's those people that price whole markets up and gambling that will suffer the most as it takes much more effort. I can speak for myself to echo that stance as since the PC2 has been introduced, apart from a one week exception, I've virtually just done a little ping ponging or nothing at all.
| |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|
By:
I suppose ping-pong money would be the least likely to go Clydebank.
| |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|
By:
CLYDEBANK29
good post at 13:01. The exchange's monopoly position is what throws a spanner in the works. Without that Betfair would never have dreamed of doing this. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|
By:
Clydebank, imv it's very hard for any kind of betting company to think of its clients in terms of either liquidity providers (i.e. suppliers) or punters (i.e. end customers).
It's more natural for them to think of anyone with an accnt. as a bettor and to be nettled at the amount that some bettors are taking them for (and e.g. to compare the profits of the most profitable players w/ those of the platform provider). It's then inevitable that bf will begin to think how they can claw some of the money back. I can accept that pc2 was hastily conceived and was intended partly to help project a trajectory of profit growth for the City, but my sense is that a strong motivation in some parts of the company was simply to do as well as big winners (or to stop them betting on terms where bf got the worse of the implicit profit share arrangement). My suspicion all along with the new charges is that they wd be happy w/ 3-5 major liquidity providers per major sport on one side and a mass of price-taking recreational punters on the other. Why shd they accommodate anyone else at a rate of comm. to profit of less than 40% | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|
By:
Can anybody get the alternative figures for purple? Now that would be interesting.....
| |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|
By:
You'd have to strip out the made up money from the Duck's figures first ie the first 20k matched on every race, every day.
|