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Impact of PC2 a look at the FACTUAL numbers....

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Replies: 202
By:
The Magician (100)
When: 17 Aug 11 11:28
BFF

the figures posted are total gross figures... you can back out growth rates for the last 4 years if you like.... I have them all.... and the Core sports exchange is still growing well.  I will tray and post them here but I hate trying to post tables.
By:
bf_fananatic
When: 17 Aug 11 11:30
What would be interesting is to correlate betfair core sports against purples and find the point in time where they become similar in cash volume as then with a serious competitor on there heels there may be concessions in the charging policies, perhaps betfair already have this projected data and are
making fiscal decisions for growth based on this data and extra money from pc2, lets hope they dont waste it on things like lmax!
By:
The Magician (100)
When: 17 Aug 11 11:31
Financial Q    II    Soccer    II    Tennis    II    Golf    II    Cricket    II    Greyhounds    II    Horse Racing    II    Basketball    II    Other    II    TOTAL
Q1 FY08    II     1,194,490,726     II     1,918,055,432     II     121,219,378     II     197,626,828     II     67,621,468     II     2,690,516,180     II     61,665,205     II     274,866,398     II     6,526,061,614
Q2 FY08    II     2,159,338,961     II     1,571,290,122     II     75,393,008     II     507,678,688     II     70,505,901     II     2,406,689,651     II     55,666,899     II     415,471,264     II     7,262,034,494
Q3 FY08    II     2,522,408,509     II     705,175,261     II     34,234,604     II     226,858,954     II     87,386,188     II     2,373,839,236     II     214,257,502     II     522,482,007     II     6,686,642,262
Q4 FY08    II     2,857,278,206     II     1,178,521,737     II     86,043,351     II     278,326,374     II     104,759,555     II     2,830,624,888     II     174,277,876     II     298,214,964     II     7,808,046,951
Q1 FY09    II     1,969,808,150     II     2,206,564,792     II     116,111,658     II     424,562,346     II     103,916,588     II     3,177,976,091     II     88,966,028     II     288,316,749     II     8,376,222,402
Q2 FY09    II     2,758,569,286     II     1,512,326,653     II     88,948,887     II     206,750,281     II     109,729,085     II     2,630,970,801     II     27,314,153     II     465,645,130     II     7,800,254,276
Q3 FY09    II     3,394,126,759     II     861,296,513     II     28,153,536     II     229,208,616     II     133,610,612     II     2,471,598,785     II     278,920,900     II     556,647,775     II     7,953,563,495
Q4 FY09    II     3,560,536,531     II     1,726,674,691     II     78,367,183     II     348,751,495     II     143,005,621     II     2,921,859,037     II     235,361,705     II     330,989,377     II     9,345,545,640
Q1 FY10    II     1,999,447,553     II     2,722,394,337     II     107,455,930     II     735,688,208     II     136,952,215     II     3,358,059,330     II     114,033,606     II     307,598,021     II     9,481,629,199
Q2 FY10    II     3,653,035,457     II     2,047,267,800     II     95,948,025     II     729,110,503     II     154,036,835     II     3,082,666,740     II     100,285,182     II     337,919,267     II     10,200,269,809
Q3 FY10    II     3,858,565,173     II     1,209,224,559     II     39,245,848     II     343,668,017     II     157,279,463     II     2,452,581,181     II     307,225,918     II     561,571,011     II     8,929,361,169
Q4 FY10    II     4,304,506,076     II     1,763,430,813     II     88,198,817     II     668,980,811     II     173,922,933     II     2,948,718,965     II     256,775,531     II     364,878,035     II     10,569,411,981
Q1 FY11    II     4,134,617,606     II     2,922,419,691     II     111,129,651     II     680,437,978     II     165,364,336     II     3,390,960,404     II     129,244,328     II     334,717,511     II     11,868,891,506
Q2 FY11    II     3,988,077,789     II     2,688,743,024     II     116,517,256     II     509,346,354     II     167,863,545     II     2,990,386,873     II     116,847,399     II     334,052,009     II     10,911,834,250
Q3 FY11    II     5,140,068,533     II     1,371,995,480     II     39,396,473     II     560,060,765     II     174,717,794     II     2,564,411,901     II     405,951,651     II     528,779,608     II     10,785,382,204
Q4 FY11    II     4,576,486,100     II     2,152,274,936     II     93,579,835     II     1,407,927,578     II     157,811,808     II     3,057,990,951     II     290,575,788     II     285,696,055     II     12,022,343,051
By:
bf_fananatic
When: 17 Aug 11 11:31
I know its hard posting tables, there is a way but its tedious, great data though and this thread is one of best ones recently, well doneBlush
By:
The Magician (100)
When: 17 Aug 11 11:32
Financial Q    II    Soccer   
    Tennis        Golf        Cricket        Greyhounds        Horse Racing        Basketball        Other   

Q1 FY08    II     1,194,490,726     ||     1,918,055,432     ||     121,219,378     ||     197,626,828     ||     67,621,468     ||     2,690,516,180     ||     61,665,205     ||     274,866,398     ||     6,526,061,614
Q2 FY08    II     2,159,338,961     ||     1,571,290,122     ||     75,393,008     ||     507,678,688     ||     70,505,901     ||     2,406,689,651     ||     55,666,899     ||     415,471,264     ||     7,262,034,494
Q3 FY08    II     2,522,408,509     ||     705,175,261     ||     34,234,604     ||     226,858,954     ||     87,386,188     ||     2,373,839,236     ||     214,257,502     ||     522,482,007     ||     6,686,642,262
Q4 FY08    II     2,857,278,206     ||     1,178,521,737     ||     86,043,351     ||     278,326,374     ||     104,759,555     ||     2,830,624,888     ||     174,277,876     ||     298,214,964     ||     7,808,046,951
Q1 FY09    II     1,969,808,150     ||     2,206,564,792     ||     116,111,658     ||     424,562,346     ||     103,916,588     ||     3,177,976,091     ||     88,966,028     ||     288,316,749     ||     8,376,222,402
Q2 FY09    II     2,758,569,286     ||     1,512,326,653     ||     88,948,887     ||     206,750,281     ||     109,729,085     ||     2,630,970,801     ||     27,314,153     ||     465,645,130     ||     7,800,254,276
Q3 FY09    II     3,394,126,759     ||     861,296,513     ||     28,153,536     ||     229,208,616     ||     133,610,612     ||     2,471,598,785     ||     278,920,900     ||     556,647,775     ||     7,953,563,495
Q4 FY09    II     3,560,536,531     ||     1,726,674,691     ||     78,367,183     ||     348,751,495     ||     143,005,621     ||     2,921,859,037     ||     235,361,705     ||     330,989,377     ||     9,345,545,640
Q1 FY10    II     1,999,447,553     ||     2,722,394,337     ||     107,455,930     ||     735,688,208     ||     136,952,215     ||     3,358,059,330     ||     114,033,606     ||     307,598,021     ||     9,481,629,199
Q2 FY10    II     3,653,035,457     ||     2,047,267,800     ||     95,948,025     ||     729,110,503     ||     154,036,835     ||     3,082,666,740     ||     100,285,182     ||     337,919,267     ||     10,200,269,809
Q3 FY10    II     3,858,565,173     ||     1,209,224,559     ||     39,245,848     ||     343,668,017     ||     157,279,463     ||     2,452,581,181     ||     307,225,918     ||     561,571,011     ||     8,929,361,169
Q4 FY10    II     4,304,506,076     ||     1,763,430,813     ||     88,198,817     ||     668,980,811     ||     173,922,933     ||     2,948,718,965     ||     256,775,531     ||     364,878,035     ||     10,569,411,981
Q1 FY11    II     4,134,617,606     ||     2,922,419,691     ||     111,129,651     ||     680,437,978     ||     165,364,336     ||     3,390,960,404     ||     129,244,328     ||     334,717,511     ||     11,868,891,506
Q2 FY11    II     3,988,077,789     ||     2,688,743,024     ||     116,517,256     ||     509,346,354     ||     167,863,545     ||     2,990,386,873     ||     116,847,399     ||     334,052,009     ||     10,911,834,250
Q3 FY11    II     5,140,068,533     ||     1,371,995,480     ||     39,396,473     ||     560,060,765     ||     174,717,794     ||     2,564,411,901     ||     405,951,651     ||     528,779,608     ||     10,785,382,204
Q4 FY11    II     4,576,486,100     ||     2,152,274,936     ||     93,579,835     ||     1,407,927,578     ||     157,811,808     ||     3,057,990,951     ||     290,575,788     ||     285,696,055     ||     12,022,343,051
By:
The Magician (100)
When: 17 Aug 11 11:33
    Financial Q        Soccer        Tennis        Golf        Cricket        Greyhounds        Horse Racing        Basketball        Other   
    Q1 FY08         1,194,490,726          1,918,055,432          121,219,378          197,626,828          67,621,468          2,690,516,180          61,665,205          274,866,398    
    Q2 FY08         2,159,338,961          1,571,290,122          75,393,008          507,678,688          70,505,901          2,406,689,651          55,666,899          415,471,264    
    Q3 FY08         2,522,408,509          705,175,261          34,234,604          226,858,954          87,386,188          2,373,839,236          214,257,502          522,482,007    
    Q4 FY08         2,857,278,206          1,178,521,737          86,043,351          278,326,374          104,759,555          2,830,624,888          174,277,876          298,214,964    
    Q1 FY09         1,969,808,150          2,206,564,792          116,111,658          424,562,346          103,916,588          3,177,976,091          88,966,028          288,316,749    
    Q2 FY09         2,758,569,286          1,512,326,653          88,948,887          206,750,281          109,729,085          2,630,970,801          27,314,153          465,645,130    
    Q3 FY09         3,394,126,759          861,296,513          28,153,536          229,208,616          133,610,612          2,471,598,785          278,920,900          556,647,775    
    Q4 FY09         3,560,536,531          1,726,674,691          78,367,183          348,751,495          143,005,621          2,921,859,037          235,361,705          330,989,377    
    Q1 FY10         1,999,447,553          2,722,394,337          107,455,930          735,688,208          136,952,215          3,358,059,330          114,033,606          307,598,021    
    Q2 FY10         3,653,035,457          2,047,267,800          95,948,025          729,110,503          154,036,835          3,082,666,740          100,285,182          337,919,267    
    Q3 FY10         3,858,565,173          1,209,224,559          39,245,848          343,668,017          157,279,463          2,452,581,181          307,225,918          561,571,011    
    Q4 FY10         4,304,506,076          1,763,430,813          88,198,817          668,980,811          173,922,933          2,948,718,965          256,775,531          364,878,035    
    Q1 FY11         4,134,617,606          2,922,419,691          111,129,651          680,437,978          165,364,336          3,390,960,404          129,244,328          334,717,511    
    Q2 FY11         3,988,077,789          2,688,743,024          116,517,256          509,346,354          167,863,545          2,990,386,873          116,847,399          334,052,009    
    Q3 FY11         5,140,068,533          1,371,995,480          39,396,473          560,060,765          174,717,794          2,564,411,901          405,951,651          528,779,608    
    Q4 FY11         4,576,486,100          2,152,274,936          93,579,835          1,407,927,578          157,811,808          3,057,990,951          290,575,788          285,696,055    
     12,022,343,051
By:
The Magician (100)
When: 17 Aug 11 11:34
    Financial Q        Soccer        Tennis        Golf        Cricket        Greyhounds        Horse Racing        Basketball        Other        TOTAL   
    Q1 FY08         1,194,490,726          1,918,055,432          121,219,378          197,626,828          67,621,468          2,690,516,180          61,665,205          274,866,398          6,526,061,614    
    Q2 FY08         2,159,338,961          1,571,290,122          75,393,008          507,678,688          70,505,901          2,406,689,651          55,666,899          415,471,264          7,262,034,494    
    Q3 FY08         2,522,408,509          705,175,261          34,234,604          226,858,954          87,386,188          2,373,839,236          214,257,502          522,482,007          6,686,642,262    
    Q4 FY08         2,857,278,206          1,178,521,737          86,043,351          278,326,374          104,759,555          2,830,624,888          174,277,876          298,214,964          7,808,046,951    
    Q1 FY09         1,969,808,150          2,206,564,792          116,111,658          424,562,346          103,916,588          3,177,976,091          88,966,028          288,316,749          8,376,222,402    
    Q2 FY09         2,758,569,286          1,512,326,653          88,948,887          206,750,281          109,729,085          2,630,970,801          27,314,153          465,645,130          7,800,254,276    
    Q3 FY09         3,394,126,759          861,296,513          28,153,536          229,208,616          133,610,612          2,471,598,785          278,920,900          556,647,775          7,953,563,495    
    Q4 FY09         3,560,536,531          1,726,674,691          78,367,183          348,751,495          143,005,621          2,921,859,037          235,361,705          330,989,377          9,345,545,640    
    Q1 FY10         1,999,447,553          2,722,394,337          107,455,930          735,688,208          136,952,215          3,358,059,330          114,033,606          307,598,021          9,481,629,199    
    Q2 FY10         3,653,035,457          2,047,267,800          95,948,025          729,110,503          154,036,835          3,082,666,740          100,285,182          337,919,267          10,200,269,809    
    Q3 FY10         3,858,565,173          1,209,224,559          39,245,848          343,668,017          157,279,463          2,452,581,181          307,225,918          561,571,011          8,929,361,169    
    Q4 FY10         4,304,506,076          1,763,430,813          88,198,817          668,980,811          173,922,933          2,948,718,965          256,775,531          364,878,035          10,569,411,981    
    Q1 FY11         4,134,617,606          2,922,419,691          111,129,651          680,437,978          165,364,336          3,390,960,404          129,244,328          334,717,511          11,868,891,506    
    Q2 FY11         3,988,077,789          2,688,743,024          116,517,256          509,346,354          167,863,545          2,990,386,873          116,847,399          334,052,009          10,911,834,250    
    Q3 FY11         5,140,068,533          1,371,995,480          39,396,473          560,060,765          174,717,794          2,564,411,901          405,951,651          528,779,608          10,785,382,204    
    Q4 FY11         4,576,486,100          2,152,274,936          93,579,835          1,407,927,578          157,811,808          3,057,990,951          290,575,788          285,696,055          12,022,343,051    
By:
The Magician (100)
When: 17 Aug 11 11:35
finally (sort off)

honestly whoever built this forum.... did the work for ****
By:
bf_fananatic
When: 17 Aug 11 11:38
Wow great data, look at soccer its massive, and the best grower, greyhounds are doing well also in growth not volume, horse racing is looking bumpy in growth of last few years but steady?
By:
bf_fananatic
When: 17 Aug 11 11:42
Brilliant work magician, great reference table for punters, you can see where all the money is and I can now see why there are so many pundits who specialize in different sports as the markets are massive, damn my speciality greyhounds is pretty low but its growing and it suffers from to shaort a time period to build the market as there are no pre-race markets unlike horse racingCry
By:
Feck N. Eejit
When: 17 Aug 11 11:46
Also Betfair don't 'seed' their market to my knowledge. (ignorimg cross matching and hedging multiples) so I dont think Betfair have proactively propped up liquidity.... as they would get killed if they tried that.

I wasn't suggesting they were seeding magician but surely it would be easy for them to play ping pong with themselves through two separate commission free accounts to hold up the figures. Not saying they have or even need to, just saying why wouldn't they if they did need to?
By:
bf_fananatic
When: 17 Aug 11 11:47
You know I reckon if betfair did a deal with the GRA and shown evening racing live on betfair the liquidity would sky rocket, well we can only dream of it but the GRA would welcome some cash and I reckon punters would love to see the greyhound races on-line, even a radio service for greyhounds would be a massive improvement
By:
bf_fananatic
When: 17 Aug 11 11:50
Seeding actually is a good idea as the markets don't attract bets till the over round becomes fair,
as long as the cash is ping ponged back to customers and then the market self propagates I cant see any problem as it would catapult the liquidity, something that is needed when there are a lot of quick markets in that sport!
By:
bf_fananatic
When: 17 Aug 11 11:53
Anybody attempted to stop bookmakers using office money to seed racecourse markets and bookies, its accepted though frowned upon
By:
bf_fananatic
When: 17 Aug 11 12:05
I think greyhound markets are handicapped by time compressed markets as what I think is happening is that betfair follows the track market which of course is via the bags system is run totally by the bookmakers, there are few real punters at trackside so office money is used to form the market from bookmakers feedback, so all the runners start at 3/1 the field, why on earth betfair dont form there own early prices based on real prediction models even of the most basic kind to kick start the markets instead of using the lame bags market I don't understand as no idiot is going to bet into a 130% over round market unless there getting brain washed in there local bookmaker!
By:
bf_fananatic
When: 17 Aug 11 12:15
Seed the markets early betfair, we want to get matched quicker and increase the liquidity, inprove the service and stop relying on the HS books, there cumbersome and not at all the best market for an exchange to wait for, good market evolution is good betfair evolutionCool
By:
Total Bosman
When: 17 Aug 11 12:33
Opened another very interesting topic, once again to find 7 of the last 8 posts are by the same person.  Look, I'm sure you value your own opinion very highly, but can you please calm down?  Even if you were to come out with something extremely revelatory it would likely go unnoticed due to the volume of drivel you churn out.

Going to be interesting to follow the figures as the sample size grows.  First glance it reflects what I'd have expected, does seem to be a slowdown in golf, tennis and cricket which is what you'd expect as these are probably the big 'traders' markets where PC2 payers are likely to be affected.  Certainly from my own experience on golf there's been a big momentum shift to purple.
By:
curlywurly
When: 17 Aug 11 12:40
I think purple figures would be more enlightening.

It's obviously too early to tell the full impact as
many people caught or about to be caught in PC2 are
still to make up their mind on how best to deal with
the situation
By:
bf_fananatic
When: 17 Aug 11 12:46
Sorry bossman, I do get carried away and my last posts are not in-line with the thread and continually posting will make me look like I am drivelling, one member said they reckon I am like the priest in father ted who shouts FECK, DRINK, GIRLS and then collapses, I think he is quite funny and weird like me, leave you all to it on this thread[;)]
By:
TheInvestor2
When: 17 Aug 11 13:27
Feck, I don't think it makes sense for Betfair to do that. The 'real' measure of liquidity is commission paid. That figure weeds out ping pong money.
By:
The Magician (100)
When: 17 Aug 11 13:41
Theinvestor2

agree you need to look at Commission to be more precise....

but the ratio of matched money to comission has been really quite consistant (trending downards slightly) for the last 17 quarters...

so would be surprised if NORMAL comission ratio changes following the PC2, but we will know soon enough
By:
The Magician (100)
When: 17 Aug 11 13:47
naturally the below does not consider the mixture of Com paid per sport... which I partially have, but it does show the Mix of Com paid to turnover has been pretty consistant - no big moves.


    TOTAL        Period        Actual Com        Ratio   
     9,481,629,199         Q1 FY10        51.2        0.540093652   
     10,200,269,809         Q2 FY10        59.5        0.583223029   
     8,929,361,169         Q3 FY10        52.1        0.583468392   
     10,569,411,981         Q4 FY10        60.9        0.576190994   
     11,868,891,506         Q1 FY11        63.5        0.535012052   
     10,911,834,250         Q2 FY11        60.1        0.550778161   
     10,785,382,204         Q3 FY11        56.6        0.52478437   
     12,022,343,051         Q4 FY11        63.3        0.526519662   
By:
DStyle
When: 17 Aug 11 14:07
did this for the tennis the other day (9/8/10 to 15/8/10 and 8/8/11 to 14/8/11)

both weeks covering exactly the same tournament levels (a masters and a premier) at the same time of day (US east coast)

Gender Round 2010 TM 2011 TM
F QF to F 13.1M 19.1M
F 3R 2R 12.4M 28.5M
F 1R 12.2M 17M
M QF to F 49.9M 32.5M
M 3R 2R 77.14M 53.5M
M 1R 38M 37M


i'll check again at the end of this week, but figures would suggest a decline on ATP stuff.
By:
Feck N. Eejit
When: 17 Aug 11 14:08
Feck, I don't think it makes sense for Betfair to do that. The 'real' measure of liquidity is commission paid. That figure weeds out ping pong money.

I agree the real measure of liquidity is commission paid but I don't see the relevance of it wrt betfair wanting to manipulate the figures. It wouldn't be themselves they were attempting to fool. The existence of threads such as this would be reason enough not to give people encouragement to believe there is life beyond betfair and maybe cause a further drop in share price.
By:
The Magician (100)
When: 17 Aug 11 14:16
DSTyle

quite inconsistent data.

Women s tennis, massively up, men considerably down.

Does this include IR betting? (granted my figure do also)

but in one tournament, I guess a few games that trade low IR (1.1) but get beat cause massive turnover... and skew the womens data up, and the mens data down.

well all need longer data sets.... but I am surprised, with all the people offering opinions on the PC etc etc etc not many are actually bothering to look at real data.

case in point - this thread has about 20 posts (excluding BFF)

yest anecdotal complaining threads attract 100s of posts.... give me confidence I will always win LOL
By:
DStyle
When: 17 Aug 11 14:33
it's the total matched when the match is complete, so yes it does include ir betting.

and the dataset is small, agreed, and as you say low odds affairs will attract a great deal more liquidity but just looking at those men figures for R2 and R3 we get:

2010 Mean 2010 SD 2011 Mean 2011 SD
2.2M 1.8M 3.2M 1.7M


again it's a wait and see, but it's very interesting to me that 1R liquidity seems to be the same but as fewer matches are played concurrently liquidity decreases.
By:
Feck N. Eejit
When: 17 Aug 11 14:42
Seems pointless relying on figures that betfair can do what they want with. I'm pretty sure betd@q manipulate their figures and I'm not talking about the different criteria they use for calculating matched totals. Maybe it's something they put in the Irish water that makes them less trustworthy than our own fine ex-city fraudsters.
By:
TheInvestor2
When: 17 Aug 11 16:11
Feck, when you look at the ratio, you have a figure that is meaningful.
By:
viva el presidente!
When: 17 Aug 11 16:14
honestly whoever built this forum.... did the work for ****

---------------

amen to that. it won't even wrap properly, and if you scroll right, the left hand bit of text disappears under the scrolling navigation bar we were apparently all clamouring for.

absolute abortion of a piece of work.
By:
Feck N. Eejit
When: 17 Aug 11 17:17
Feck, when you look at the ratio, you have a figure that is meaningful.

What ratio investor? Are you saying they can't manipulate the figures?
By:
Feck N. Eejit
When: 17 Aug 11 18:00
Where is magician getting the commission figures from?
By:
moisok
When: 17 Aug 11 18:10
can't even provide any betfair video for footy matches tonight
By:
TheInvestor2
When: 17 Aug 11 18:31
Feck, I mean the ratio from Magician's post. You're right that strictly speaking the matched figures have to be taken with a large pinch of salt, but combining the info with commission paid, you get some useful info.
By:
catfloppo
When: 17 Aug 11 18:33
When the email first came through the shock took a few days to digest, it was at this point my loyalty for BF disappeared

I have seen this kind of comment a lot, it means you didn't have any loyalty in the first place!

Mag, great thread once again!
By:
TheInvestor2
When: 17 Aug 11 18:36
how does that make sense cat?
By:
Feck N. Eejit
When: 17 Aug 11 18:46
Where does the comm'n paid come from though investor?
By:
Getafix
When: 17 Aug 11 19:12
Catfloppo, please explain?  The key to successful betting is obtaining optimum prices and reducing costs wherever possible.  My loyalty was/is the partnership of huge turnover and risk in keeping the exchange liquid and thus attractive to all other customers.
By:
Getafix
When: 17 Aug 11 19:13
It is an agreement that suits us both.  I am hardly going to take (effectively) worse prices when alternatives are available.  That is potentially betting suicide.
By:
Getafix
When: 17 Aug 11 19:15
"huge turnover" - in terms of one sided bets (no trading).
By:
The Magician (101)
When: 17 Aug 11 19:16
Feck

My Com paid comes from the last 17 financial Quarters as reported in quaterly and full year financial results for the core exchange... so they are REAL

as the ratio is staying quite constant.... hard to see that there is any significant manipulation of matched figures... and also possible to conclude that the mix of play is remaining close to constant also.

I can now break the Com ratio down partly sport by sport.... but as I can work out ALL sports I still feel it is best to have a "all exchnage bets" ratio.

though the soccer and racing ratios are higher and (obviously) the others are then lower....
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