General Betting
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16 Aug 11
22:30
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Date Joined:
25 Sep 07
Obvious there has been lots of anecdotal evidence of the impact of the PC2.
I keep reading “Market XXX was small or down on last year’s similar week 1 premiership game.. etc etc”
So thought it was time to have a real look at the REAL figures.... so got the following extracted from database.
Below you will see ‘total matched’ for four 17 days periods, across the main sports and “other”
a) 2011 17 days prior to PC2
b) 2011 17 days after PC2
c) Same 17 days as (a) for 2010
d) Same 17 days as (b) for 2010
Naturally there are some seasonal or tournaments impacts that I have not stripped out... and as the day set grows form 17 to 30,60,90 these seasonal impacts will dissipate.
Superficially I dont see any vast negative impacts... unless some markets that seem marginally down, like for like 2011v 2011 or 2011 v 2010, have had significantly BETTER games in the post PC2 2011 period (or like for like period), and turnover is still down.
i.e I don’t know if the 19th July to 4th August in 2010 – had only ONE premier league week or not? Etc etc
Experts in those fields could comment.
But liquidity post PC2 looks pretty robust to me, on the surface...
Discuss...
I keep reading “Market XXX was small or down on last year’s similar week 1 premiership game.. etc etc”
So thought it was time to have a real look at the REAL figures.... so got the following extracted from database.
Below you will see ‘total matched’ for four 17 days periods, across the main sports and “other”
a) 2011 17 days prior to PC2
b) 2011 17 days after PC2
c) Same 17 days as (a) for 2010
d) Same 17 days as (b) for 2010
Naturally there are some seasonal or tournaments impacts that I have not stripped out... and as the day set grows form 17 to 30,60,90 these seasonal impacts will dissipate.
Superficially I dont see any vast negative impacts... unless some markets that seem marginally down, like for like 2011v 2011 or 2011 v 2010, have had significantly BETTER games in the post PC2 2011 period (or like for like period), and turnover is still down.
i.e I don’t know if the 19th July to 4th August in 2010 – had only ONE premier league week or not? Etc etc
Experts in those fields could comment.
But liquidity post PC2 looks pretty robust to me, on the surface...
Discuss...
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PLEASE MOVE ALL SPORT TITLES ONE CELL LEFT....
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xxx
2010 2nd July to 18th July || 620,021,871 || 405,641,869 || 36,890,826 || 108,147,643 || 543,122,631 || 27,279,380 || 1,952,029 || 46,993,357 || 1,790,049,605 2010 19th July to 4th August || 295,056,526 || 401,898,689 || 12,497,458 || 86,063,248 || 528,035,324 || 29,468,674 || 1,097,471 || 74,714,216 || 1,428,831,605 2011 1st July to 17th July || 407,754,967 || 584,489,664 || 37,210,094 || 188,473,374 || 545,331,610 || 28,056,617 || 9,246,737 || 60,008,539 || 1,860,571,603 2011 18th July to 3rd August || 365,989,285 || 435,557,759 || 9,128,209 || 108,424,470 || 518,451,271 || 28,245,542 || 3,484,872 || 66,670,118 || 1,535,951,527 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Horse racing was where i expected to see a difference, but there appears none at all
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Delta I will leave it to you to fix if you like...
Betfair could not have destroyed this forum more if they tried... | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Love your work!
Agreed on your conclusions from the stats given. Possible reasons you may have missed/hidden a change in liquidity: 1 - Days of the week - always analysing period which are a multiple of 7 days would ensure comparability. 2 - Number of markets - I can't think of a convinvcing bias here though. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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It was World Cup in 2010 so there would have been no PL week in either of those two 2010 periods, and as I'm sure you know, none in those 2011 periods. I suspect WC 2010 would be the factor in the seeming advantage for the first time period in 2010 over its equivalent in 2011.
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Martinch
Not technically my work, one of my partners drags it together for me... but i told him he did a great job. lets leave the experts of each sport to conclude if liek for like days ( and I did make it like for like DAYS OF THE WEEK - of you check calandar) is fair ie first soccer period looks to include the end of Euro 2010???? so those type of things can impact.... some sports events are a week earlier or later year on year... but I cant see any cliff edge decline in liquidity, but lets wait for people to commment on the like for like FAIRNESS of comparison | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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sorry WCup 2010 not EURO.
Yes agree on Premier league... just had in my head, that this was first week, but data ends Last week Naturally will increase this data set next week with one additinal week of data added to all four groups. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Can some expert FIX the table to display correctly before we get endless comments relating to the wrong turnover per sport.
I tried twice and am just making a mess of the thread Delta :o) thought you wanted the job LOL | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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To me, their just so much more money in 2011 then 2010, because of world finance crisis
you also had world cup in 2010, which would hurt things like tennis and cricket, but would be a big net gainer overall Time will tell... | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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EPL 2010 start 14th
Championship 2010 start aug 6th | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Liquidity looks solid, what the effect will be long term is say 12 months after intro pc2, compared to average growth would be a more interesting picture!
I wonder what betfair could do to increase growth, my list would be 1.....seed markets earlier. 2.....open markets earlier. 3.....quicker matching by system. 4.....more incentives to new customers like lower commission rate for 3 months. 5.....show matched total as betduck calculation for truer comparison. 6.....create results portal that gives free insight into bsp figures for comparisons. 7.....relax pc1 conditions to aid up and coming winning bettors. 8.....more on-site advertising of sporting events. 9.....better advertising. 10....better customer relations services. 11....more sports markets focus on develoment | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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I'm surprised no one else seems to have mentioned this obvious observation:
Soccer is an unquestionable anomaly. Remove that segment from the Total and there is a significant negative impact ~20% following the new charge. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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jfc - very good point...
we can take this a step further and say that, apart from football, EVERY sport (in this chart) shows a larger percentage decrease in volume from 2 July-17 July to the following 18 July-3 August period, in 2011 than 2010.
2010 2nd July to 18th July || 620,021,871 || 405,641,869 || 36,890,826 || 108,147,643 || 543,122,631 || 27,279,380 || 1,952,029 || 46,993,357 || 1,790,049,605 || 1,170,027,734 || 2010 19th July to 4th August || 295,056,526 || 401,898,689 || 12,497,458 || 86,063,248 || 528,035,324 || 29,468,674 || 1,097,471 || 74,714,216 || 1,428,831,605 || 1,133,775,079 || change || 48% || 99% || 34% || 80% || 97% || 108% || 56% || 159% || 80% || 0.97 || 2011 1st July to 17th July || 407,754,967 || 584,489,664 || 37,210,094 || 188,473,374 || 545,331,610 || 28,056,617 || 9,246,737 || 60,008,539 || 1,860,571,603 || 1,452,816,636 || 2011 18th July to 3rd August || 365,989,285 || 435,557,759 || 9,128,209 || 108,424,470 || 518,451,271 || 28,245,542 || 3,484,872 || 66,670,118 || 1,535,951,527 || 1,169,962,242 || change || 90% || 75% || 25% || 58% || 95% || 101% || 38% || 111% || 83% || 0.81 || | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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ok, got the hang of it... 2 charts from me are identical, they just include ex-football and % change for illustration
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Your looking a too small a field in fortnightly periods so therefore those fields can be vastly distorted by minor differences in event schedules and conditions, you need larger data fields which at present don't exist, but good data and presentation non the less!
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Unless you average over greater time periods then you would need to offset a great number of facors to find the underlining difference if one could be seen in a 2 week period via such a discreet method of comparison. quarterly or annually is the preferred statistical time period in business for trend spotting!
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bf_Tragic (as Australian hacks would say)
Martinch stated earlier that every other segment bar the anomalous Soccer (all 7 of them) have shown a relative decrease. And has now illustrated that. That's way past a coincincience. So your stock dismissal of those stats can itself be more easily dismissed. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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It is certainly true that the time period is far too small to gage that much in terms of accuracy in the figures, given changing sports schedules, world cup factor and a host of other smaller details.
The other thing is, even if the figures hold up to be close to equal, isnt this effectively a step backwards anyway, given they have been growing as a company for years? How many previous year on year figures have shown sharp increases, or sharper than these, for example. Also, there is no question there is increased activity at betduck, we see it everyday. Isnt most of the extra action there, just transferred from here, rather than "new money", so to speak? I just have a hard time believing there wont be a significant impact in the months to come because there must be many other people like myself who simply refuse to support the outragious comm structure here and will go to great lengths to replicate activity elsewhere in order to get a decent return for the effort involved. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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I was pondering what this really means... I think the strategy people at Betfair probably expected volumes to decrease.
My reasoning is something like this: What they claim to be doing is managing the 'ecosystem' so that losers lose more slowly, but that a larger proportion of their loses will go to Betfair PLC. So while PC2 will have a negative effect on volumes in the short term (as lots of money leaves), it is expected to have the positive effect of keeping punters money in the ecosystem longer. This should have a positive effect on volume in the medium term as this money moves around more times before leaving the ecosystem (as either winnings or commission). | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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betfair prices/odds don't live in their own ecosystem..the mugs will still lose at the same rate as they do now...
If betfair really does need to keep 60% plus from each account, then betfair is a f-cked company | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Magician good work, if possible could you keep this updated each week? 17 days is far too short a period and proves nothing. I think it will be about 6 months before any noticeable difference is proved.
To back up my thoughts above, I refer to my own thoughts through this saga. When the email first came through the shock took a few days to digest, it was at this point my loyalty for BF disappeared (betfair rightly treat this as a business and this is how everyone else has to now treat this, loyalty is gone). My growing thoughts: "If I can get partially matched anywhere else then that is a reduction in my charges". At that point in time, the second question was to do with what priorities I should make/change to my upcoming betting. From the original PC portal I was able to calculate how long it would take before I would start paying this new charge (their was an allowance based on previous years betting). I estimated 1-2 months from inception on average weeks. A look across at purple at that point was disheartening, my preferred sports having very small liquidity. The decision was therefore made for me, I had around 2 months to see what impact this had on the markets here and at purple. So original betting plan was kept. Unfortunately (actually...fortunately) I was charged much earlier than anticipated. But on the bright side there is definitely opportunity elsewhere as others have already moved. My top sports can now be partially catered for elsewhere, on first estimates/tests I will only get matched about 25% of my bet totals but that means a roughly equal drop to my potential PC payments which more than makes the extra work worthwhile. I know the argument of pro versus pro on the less liquid exchanges, but this argument doesn't hold here as I would be getting matched at the same price as here anyway. Seeding both markets in parallel is a major uptaking as bet updates have to be requested more frequently and there is the possibility of over backing/laying if bets are taken at both places at the same time (necessity for extra bet adjustments), so everything needs extra work. I anticipate another 2-4 weeks before I am fully integrated to both platforms and this will be for only 1 sport, my other preferred sports will have to wait and should be much quicker to implement. I believe that I am a typical 500 player and 6 months to a year will be when the affects are truly noticeable. On the point of "500 players", I believe the real figure to be much higher which adds to my arguments above; is the "500" the amount of players who would have been estimated to have been affected immediately come the 18th, or in the coming 6+ months etc? I know of 2 others who received the super pc portal email but who are in the 50-60% range so they won't be affected for a long, long time, until they pick up their good runs again. As soon as people are charged is when they will most likely make the necessary steps to reduce the impact. This is why it will take a long time to notice change. Once the big sports gather ground the smaller markets and in-running will quickly follow imo. If purple do not extend their 2.5% commission level into next year (and up their marketing) I believe they will fail to gain any ground. This is the crux of everything imo. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Jfc I look at millions of pieces of data in my pursuits and have to design software that can cope
with extreme data manipulation, I am not a BF employee , drone, clown, troll but a form fan and I can categorically state that data is only as good as its relevance and field sample size and what ever your slang words are in Australia keep them to yourself blue! | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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And anyone that thinks gamblers that own databases are unfairly blessed or whatever knee-jerk reaction
they care to make, I can tell you its incredibly difficult to find winning trends and requires months of data sampling and tinkering to arrive at any profit margins, also it requires years of knowledge of turning form into useful sets of data that have and edge,I can also see that this thread and its posters generally are top class and there are indeed many customers that are making profits on here,I dont like pc2 as much as anyone else but our hands are tied and I would rather spend time finding better models of profit than having meaningless banter between me and some users on here who think I am some sort of alien minded thread hijacker,I am hungry for profit as much as you all[;)] | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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the thing that spring to mind immediately is, it would be interesting to see figures comparing the period before the announcement of the change rather than its implementation.
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With regards to the soccer anomaly, bear in mind that's where alot of PC payers will go to minimise the pc they pay.
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magician, Considering we're dealing with an ex-city mob who've imported city morals into everyday sports betting I wouldn't give a lot of weight to betfair's "FACTUAL" figures. They contain so much ping-pong money it's hard to imagine they wouldn't do a bit of commission free ping-ponging themselves to induce a bit of despondency in those hoping for a collapse. Maybe they didn't need to manipulate the figures but thinking they wouldn't would be on a par with thinking Andy Coulson wouldn't tell a lie.
All I know for sure is that betd@q's improved considerably (horse racing at least). | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Seeding both markets in parallel is a major uptaking as bet updates have to be requested more frequently and there is the possibility of over backing/laying if bets are taken at both places at the same time (necessity for extra bet adjustments), so everything needs extra work. I anticipate another 2-4 weeks before I am fully integrated to both platforms and this will be for only 1 sport, my other preferred sports will have to wait and should be much quicker to implement. I believe that I am a typical 500 player and 6 months to a year will be when the affects are truly noticeable.
I agree with getafix on this. I'm working on both api's just now to get my betting automated. While I recognise the majority of pc2 traders (shell and pea excepted) can't add any real liquidity to betd@q it will take time for opinion bots to spring up across the water. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Bang on Feck N. Eejit, brilliant post, self seeding markets may be there objective and squeezing out
the pros profits, perhaps they fear the pros now as they have an unhealthy interest in markets! | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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You seem to be mellowing bf_fanatic.
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Why dont betfair concentrate on a better service, better promotions, better deals for new customers, instead of frustrating winners, perhaps in the long run there may be a morale tale to tell!
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I am remembering what FAFH said to me once that I should have more concern for the real users of betfair and be more kind as I only want to make a profit and really I think the pc2 is a heavy blow
to the system users generally! | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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I think talking moralistically that its the city that gave betfair its model but ultimately its the cities corporate greed that is taking the betfair winning ethos away at the delight of its competitors!
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And if the government do decide to tax pro punters including lottery winners then as low as 15% net profits from gross profit will force the big guns to go else where, then perhaps the goverment and betfair self seeding will destroy the once mighty betfair all together, lets hope the tories are not as stupid as they appear to be
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Feck
Just to be clear these are not exactly Betfairs figures... I have extracted them from their published betting volumes. Also Betfair don't 'seed' their market to my knowledge. (ignorimg cross matching and hedging multiples) so I dont think Betfair have proactively propped up liquidity.... as they would get killed if they tried that. it is more possible that if there is say a 2% decline, that might really be; 1) a 6 % decline by PC payers spitting the dummy or legitimately reducing betting volume 2) a 4 % increase by oither PC players increasing churn, and other not PC players filling the PC leavers voids. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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What about growth factor, is there still growth in the sporting markets as the other products do seem to divert cash, and do your figures take into account the projected difference of this growth factor in volume/users?
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