General Betting
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horse laying challenge: £100 to £1k
horse laying challenge: £100 to £1k
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My bet is a lay of Liverpool HT / FT at 2.54. Not for bundles but enough for a few beers.
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Is this 1k to £1 challenge not completed yet?
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get lost coolhand
ok so if brighton lose tonight, which i expect they will, i am back to being down for the last 6 weeks after many many hours of gambling  |
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shocking day losing on tennis/horses and football. as usual, just cannot win...
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I'm so far down about a day's worth today as well. A few surprising results from my point of view, and not helped by some small chase bets. Still, the important thing is to get selective again, and the money should return over the next couple of days.
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Hang on Paul, I thought you said you were £150 up since Mad Maunsell Day. You trying to tell us you've lost all that money today???
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I see you bunged a load on laying Everton, on Bingo's advice. I suppose you've made back most of your losses then, have you? Or are you laying them to qualify?
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update soon. could have been 100s down. currently 70 down. backing chelsea to Q for 60 down
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You really are treading a dangerous path. Sooner or later it's going to end in disaster for you if you keep slamming on big chase bets like this. Pav's miss saved you last night, and it sounds like you're gambling stupidly again tonight.
Please Paul, don't keep doing this! There's only one way it ends if you do. |
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i know i know LB but i dont know any other way to gamble
pav? |
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pav for spurs... ive already tasted disaster back in june bobbbin
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*july
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Pav = Pavlyuchenko. Had he scored, you might well have lost on Stoke-Tot last night.
Bad start for Chelsea... |
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I'll put a few quid on Chelsea at 1.8...
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2 nights in a row ive stressed these pens out
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woohoo
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Luck saves you again Paul!
But seriously, don't keep gambling like this. I know you say you know other way, but honestly, you are going to lose - and you could lose quite big - if you persist with this strategy. There's no point in risking your money just to lose it all in the end. You have no chance of long-term (or even middle-term) success if you keep doing this. |
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i agree LB...
£50 down after day of yo yo gambling. as i say, could of been alot worse. here's the soccer bit: Soccer Showing 1 - 6 of 6 markets Market Start time Settled date Profit/loss (£) Soccer / Chelsea v Fulham : To Qualify 21-Sep-11 19:45 21-Sep-11 22:29 12.06 Soccer / Everton v West Brom : Match Odds 21-Sep-11 20:00 21-Sep-11 21:52 138.48 lay of everton Soccer / Brighton v Liverpool : Match Odds 21-Sep-11 19:45 21-Sep-11 21:40 -90.28 Soccer / Jaro v KuPS : Match Odds 21-Sep-11 16:30 21-Sep-11 18:20 -60.84 Soccer / Consadole Sapporo v Tokyo Verdy : Match Odds 21-Sep-11 11:00 21-Sep-11 12:54 13.96 Soccer / Consadole Sapporo v Tokyo Verdy : Correct Score 21-Sep-11 11:00 21-Sep-11 12:48 -20.13 think ill chill out with a beer and a film and not gamble anymore, does make you think why have just spent all day gambling and left £50 down when i could have not bothered |
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Well exactly. If you don't have a plan you're confident in (or at the very least one you feel will work with a little bit of practice) then it's absolute madness to be betting. You're much better off spending the money enjoying yourself rather than chucking it away tragically.
You've done well to have kept as much of it as you have considering, so see this as fate being kind to you and gently trying to persuade you to stop. |
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Soccer / Jaro v KuPS : Match Odds
21-Sep-11 16:30 21-Sep-11 18:20 -60.84 Soccer / Consadole Sapporo v Tokyo Verdy : Match Odds 21-Sep-11 11:00 21-Sep-11 12:54 13.96 Soccer / Consadole Sapporo v Tokyo Verdy : Correct Score 21-Sep-11 11:00 21-Sep-11 12:48 -20.13 what r these games |
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j-league. tips off forum. how u doin mate?
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keeping low and surviving [;)]
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Some serious questions here Paulme
How old are you?? Are you employed?? What year did you leave high school?? do you have any formal qualifications?? have you worked in any area of employment that requires intelligence?? IE banking secter What was your last job and for how long were you employed there for?? Do you own your own home or rent with a heap of others?? because in all my time here I have not seen anyone who throws money away in the fashion you do. You truely have no fkuen idea. You would have thought that you would have learnt by your mistakes but that is clearly not the case. Why is it so hard for you to do some research and come up with a stratgey on just 1 or 2 sports. FFS I could come up with a reasonably succesful strategy for almost every sport I know something about. Gold, tennis, cricket, footy, soccer, afl youname it of I know about it I could find an angle on these sports. Why can't you?? You give me a fkn headache. If you want something simple and makes long term profits Selectivly lay draw trade out on first goal as soon as that goal is scored, that is about as simple a bet option/strategy you could possibly find. Risk $20 make a few bucks a match, set a get out point if still 0-0 at say 55 minute mark or whatever point you decide, BUT FKN STICK WITH IT. Your betting looks like a mad woman having a sh17 |
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thats what i tried today GC. nearly cost me £280 cos 2 quick goals and it was 1-1 for ages. also i'd backed 0-0 as insurance and still didnt work.
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So what you tried today was not the lay draw system, you fkd up again.
Why is it so hard to stick to the basics. What part of lay the draw don't you get?? the system was lay the draw, trade out on first goal?? WAS IT NOT??? yet you stayed in after the first goal was scored and you decided to back 0-0 as insurance FFS you thrown the system to the gutter already lay the fkn draw, trade out as soon as the first goal is scored, how fkn hard is that to follow. Do not have any insurance bets do not deviate from the plan, and you wonder why your losing piles of cash. Fk me it aint that hard. |
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to the goldcoastinvestor is the lay the draw sytsem not the oldest trick in the book and what are the profits like if there very small is it not the same as backing over 0.5
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I think without having some statistics, that system is going to fail anyway. (i-only-lay always seemed to have good reasons for thinking there would be goals. He didn't just lay any old match.) If it was me, and I wanted to give that system a go (with small money!), I'd go to that football stats site I posted earlier on in that thread, and I'd mark down all the 0-0 draws. I'd then look back at the past results of those two teams coming into the match, and see if I could find any clues that a low-scoring match might be coming up, How many times did one or both of the teams come into that match with a low-scoring record or a strong defensive record in their previous games, for example?
You obviously can't eliminate the chances of getting a 0-0, since even two free-scoring teams can suddenly find themselves fighting out a dour nil-nil. However, I daresay some of the teams going into those matches had form that might lead you to avoid them. The Birminghams (last season) and Fulhams were probably teams to avoid, for instance. And no, I don't understand either why Paul diluted the system with an 'insurance bet'. It sounds like he took on rather more liability than he should have been doing with a system that he didn't know, and got into a bit of a panic... |
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Just back Alex Mcleish sides to draw
birmingham city had 15draws last year, average odds about 5/2 maybe, probably make a nice profit from that, season before they drew 11, probably roughly broke even, but won plenty 1-0 so possibilities to trade. this season Villa drawn 4 from 5, and never looked like winning any of them |
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It's well worth looking for unfancied teams that have a surprisingly good home record. I had quite a nice time laying Birmingham's opponents when they were in the middle of that strong run at home. Mind you Coolhand, I guess backing Birmingham would rather stick in your craw!
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Would never back birmingham, gladly bet against them though, and rarely back Villa, superstitious idiot, although a couple of seasons ago i put a £20 bet on us to lose 3-1 at Old Trafford, haha, we won 1-0 with a agbonlahor header, never happier to lose £20.
birmingham were very hard to beat at home, and mcleish is already trying to get us to play like that, which is angering a lot of fans, hard to beat but offering nothing in the final third. Newcastle are a side that i think will frustrate teams this year, low scoring scrappy games i think for them. |
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McLeish does like his tough defenses... If you put McLeish and Arsene Wenger together as co-managers, I reckon you'd have quite a team there!
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Ok I haven't looked fully into this lay system.
However. With my knowledge of EPl I would comfortably say go and have a look at the goal scoring capabillities of say 3 teams that have a high win % to their name and an average goal scoring abillity of 2 goals+ per match. This will give you good teams who have goal scoring strike power. Only lay the draw with those teams, as soon as a goal is scored trade out. Set a point in time where if it is still 0-0 you trade out to with no, or a small loss. no point hanging on and on hoping for a goal to have a full liabillity on the event, even if you reduce your liabillity by half you have saved money. If it were me, I would be looking to trade out at about the 75 minute mark if it were still 0-0. obviously you'd have to watch the game and see how it was being played and weather conditions etc. I wouldn't trade out if man U had 60 shots on goal with 75% posession and the other side was down to 9 men, you'd reasonably think that soon 1 goal will be scored??? You just have to set the paremeters of your stratgey and stick to it, if you deviate and throw in bets here and there you may as well not have a stratgey????? the teams I would be looking at laying the draw and trading out are obvious. Man U Chelsea Man City Weigh up their opposition and likely goals scored and you might have 3 bets a round maybe 2 depending on your assesment. Seems awfully straight forward to me?? |
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you always have to pick 2 teams at around the same odds
thiers no point laying the draw when man united are playing qpr becuase if the big underdog scores 1st the draw price will shorten id imagine the championship would have loads of potential with this as odds are mostly around the same for both teams execept if a team from the top is playing a team near bottom |
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Any update on this challenge thread OP ???
what has been your daily totals since you started the challenge. |
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the lay the draw thing was deemed a failure all things considered... the search for the holy grail goes on my gambling friends
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Did any of i-only-lay's own picks go wrong, Paul?
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Any update on this challenge thread OP ???
what has been your daily totals since you started the challenge.  |
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erm nope
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* "erm nope" @ LB
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Seems a bit unfair to publicly label the lay the draw system as being a failure then Paul. It obviously wasn't going to work in the long term unless you at least used some statistics to try and gauge whether a low scoring match was likely or not. (Although it was fun to try a couple of times as a Sunday night game.) You seemed to be lumbering into matches with too high a liability for your own comfort and with no knowledge of what was expected from that particular match. I suspect i-only-lay approaches it with rather more intelligence...
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