General Betting
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I know this has been talked about on here before from time to time, but I’m ready to take it on for the first time.
After years of trying (and failing) to make consistent profits, I’m growing increasingly impatient in my quest to pay off my mortgage and have now decided to attempt to go from a starting bank of £20 to £155,000 (after 5% commission) in just 14 even money (or at odds of better than 2.00) bets. I will simply double my stake each time I win. When I lose I will start again.
Here’s how it will pan out if all goes according to plan (stop laughing):
Bet 1 £20 to win £20
Bet 2 £40 to win £80
Bet 3 £80 to win £160
Bet 4 £160 to win £320
Bet 5 £320 to win £640
Etc, etc, etc
Bet 13 £81,920 to win £163,840 (before commission)
There will be an obvious temptation to withdraw at any point if the snowball exceeds a couple of grand, and I may well do this if I get the chance to. But very soon I’d like to stick it out all the way to the target of £150k. The way I see it, I won’t cry over losing my original £20 bank (it’s not like I’ll be gambling away £5k I had taken months/years to build up, so the inevitable loss(es) until I crack the ultimate target will be acceptable.
I’m not kidding myself that it will be done in one go, or even two or three attempts. But it CAN be done. There are 14 good value even money shots out there and I’m prepared to be patient enough to attempt it over a period of, say, a month, using mainly football, tennis, cricket and golf markets (don’t do the horses).
I realise that getting matched may be a problem the further I progress, but I will be staking in the higher profile events anyway, where there is most liquidity. All bets will be ante-post.
How many times will I be prepared to repeat the exercise until I finally succeed? It depends how far I get in the first few attempts, I suppose. But got to be worth 15-20 attempts purely to satisfy curiosity and to say ‘well at least I had a go’.
Have you, or do you know someone, who has attempted this or something similar? If so, how far did they get?
Serious comments welcomed.
After years of trying (and failing) to make consistent profits, I’m growing increasingly impatient in my quest to pay off my mortgage and have now decided to attempt to go from a starting bank of £20 to £155,000 (after 5% commission) in just 14 even money (or at odds of better than 2.00) bets. I will simply double my stake each time I win. When I lose I will start again.
Here’s how it will pan out if all goes according to plan (stop laughing):
Bet 1 £20 to win £20
Bet 2 £40 to win £80
Bet 3 £80 to win £160
Bet 4 £160 to win £320
Bet 5 £320 to win £640
Etc, etc, etc
Bet 13 £81,920 to win £163,840 (before commission)
There will be an obvious temptation to withdraw at any point if the snowball exceeds a couple of grand, and I may well do this if I get the chance to. But very soon I’d like to stick it out all the way to the target of £150k. The way I see it, I won’t cry over losing my original £20 bank (it’s not like I’ll be gambling away £5k I had taken months/years to build up, so the inevitable loss(es) until I crack the ultimate target will be acceptable.
I’m not kidding myself that it will be done in one go, or even two or three attempts. But it CAN be done. There are 14 good value even money shots out there and I’m prepared to be patient enough to attempt it over a period of, say, a month, using mainly football, tennis, cricket and golf markets (don’t do the horses).
I realise that getting matched may be a problem the further I progress, but I will be staking in the higher profile events anyway, where there is most liquidity. All bets will be ante-post.
How many times will I be prepared to repeat the exercise until I finally succeed? It depends how far I get in the first few attempts, I suppose. But got to be worth 15-20 attempts purely to satisfy curiosity and to say ‘well at least I had a go’.
Have you, or do you know someone, who has attempted this or something similar? If so, how far did they get?
Serious comments welcomed.
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Replies: 205
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Good luck, you sound like you know the score, but a 8191/1 shot is difficult to find value on, so plenty of luck (and bottle) will be the order of the day :)
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I admire your honesty. Personally I've never attempted the challenge you're taking on as I think it is unrealistic. However, I do something similar but on a smaller scale.
My preferred approach is to bet odds on - typically 2 to 1 on so that if my selection is wrong in terms of value, I'm at least counting on market accuracy to give me a probability of a positive result i.e. two times out of three the result should go in my favour even if I guessed (I acknowledge that a small percentage margin may have been taken by the layer/backer). In practical terms it would take you 23 bets at 1.5 to reach your £150k allowing for 5% commission. Personally I feel I would have more chance of finding 23 consecutive bets at these odds than 14 at evens. I acknowledge in advance the counter argument that the chance of achieving either is the same but it boils down to personal approach. Good luck. |
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can't wait to see how this goes.. good luck mate. I know what ur saying it sounds so simple. You easily get 14 even money winners just in english football on a suturday so finding them over a month or so should be far easier especially considering that u are looking at sports other than just football.
Me and my friends used to always talk about the "old" £10 bet on even money shots 17 times to a £1.3m fortune...dribbling just thinking about it....although to be fair could anyone be lumping the £656k on a 2.0 or even the £328k or £164k...not so sure but then u cold always "get out" for an all green midway through!! lol looking forward to ur updates but make sure u post ur picks up here pre match Regards Fluffnut |
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If somebody had suggested that you take your £20 and simply double it up by placing it on red or black, or maybes odd/even on a roulette table, what would you have said to them? Would you have remained as confident?
I don't wish to dissuade you. On the contrary, good luck. However the maths says you are likely to lose before hitting £10k, never mind £150k. I hope you prove the maths wrong. |
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great idea. and yeah please post up your bets and progress. when you starting?
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do it like this.
http://www.joecainey.co.uk/gambling It will work, but you will loase your bottle (nap)  |
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Bet 1: Fulham v Liverpool - Next Goal Liverpool (22 mins) £20 @ 2.18.
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Bet 1: Fulham v Liverpool - Next Goal Liverpool (22 mins) £20 @ 2.18.
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you are in cloud cuckoo land if you think you will EVER place 81k on even money shot..
once you got to bet 7 and £1280 you would give up and bottle it and would'nt continue as it is very CLEAR £1280 is huge to you. and if you are doing bets like the one poste above you havent got a chance of getting 14 in a row a better way of doing what you are trying to do is by doubling you're bank every month rather than every bet..(lets call every month 28 days) month 1: £20-£40 which means you need an avge of 0.72p per day, get you're 72p per day for 28 days and you will have £40 month 2: £40-£80 which means you need an avge of £1.43 per day, get an avge of £1.43 per day and you will have you're £80 month 1: £20-£40 month 2: £40-£80 month 3: £80-£160 month 4: £160-£320 month 5: £320-£640 month 6: £640- £1250 month 7: £1250-£2500 month 8: £2500-£5000 month 9: £5000-£10,000 football season is 9 months... start in aug and in may you could have turned £20 into £10,000.. all starts with tiny acorns.. |
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bet 1 won?
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May 10
Bet 1: Man City to beat Spurs - £20 @ 2.00. |
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fell at first hurdle doing a stupid bet..
you trying to land 14 in a row.. i doubt you will even get 5 if this is the kind of MUG bets you are doing looking at you're 2nd attempt.. youve obviosly not seen man citys record against tottenham man city have won just 1 of thel ast 17 games vs totenham... man city also have an awful record against everton (1 win in 11) what happened there.. oh they lost 2-1 |
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Thanks for the initial response.
Relentless - I hear where you're coming from but 23 bets is pushing luck too far for my liking, but all the best with it. One is hard enough on tonight's dismal start! Fluffnut & Others - there's a good chance I'd bottle it if push came to shive, but that would be a lovely dilemma to have and not likely to be a factor any time soon. As you say, the greening-up option might be very handy. TOTGA - taking the mathematics out of it for a mo, I'd still rather be choosing my even money bets than relying on the spinning roulette wheel. I've not daid I will do this. Just saying it CAN be done and I'm going to give it a crack. i-only-lay - I correct my initial comment that I would only make ante-post bets. I'll be happy to back in-play too if it looks right. Agree with you that patience is a virtue but as I said originally, I've run out of that! I will continue to bet in the normal way - backing and laying - but the thread title plan will be attempted using a different bank. |
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WITHDRAW YOUR £20 FROM THE 1ST WINNER THEN CARRY ON,THAT WAY YOU WILL HAVE LOST 0 POST YOUR BETS UP THO,MY MORTGAGE IS LESS,IT WONT TAKE ME AS MANY BETS.BUT IDE LIKE TO SEE IT DONE.GL WITH THIS
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didnt the liverpool bet win?
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Paulol - No! I miraculously managed to lose with the 'Next Goal Liverpool' in a game they won 5-2! Hence I'll start a new Bet 1 backing Man City tomorrow.
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you backed them at 0-3 then?
good luck tmrw keep it going mate |
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For a start this is a crazy idea, but one i totally take my hat off to you for doing mate! i really hope that you do it!
I have been using a new idea recently using an initial bank of £1,000 an trying to make 5% of these per day (£50) by backing favorites and recouping losses on the next race until i reach my £50 |
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Yeah that's not a new idea RC it's called chasing.
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if you have patience and know the market well it can be done.. but the temptation to bet every day is what will make this very difficult... if you give yourself one year i am sure you can find 14 even money shots but like most of us doing such challenges the unrealistic goal of achieving this in 1 or 2 months will end in failure..
good luck and think about splitting your bank once you complete 5-6 successful bets |
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Its a new idea to me, an i am loving it lol
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i cant believe people do this ... why do so many live in cuckoo land
why waste money an time find something that works ...this aint even close |
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dont give up mate
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It's a break from the monotony Rs1, and it's plausible. I don't think it's picking the bets, it's going to be the bottle of putting down 80k on an evens shot.
No chance. |
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Good luck with it. Would be nice to see you get a good run at it. I may have a go myself at something similar
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Just started it backed £20 at 2.12 on Osasuna to win tonights game
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lets get to 1k first, nevermind 80k!! long long way off
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I know Im clueless. Still better the first one goes rather than the tenth
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I think I will join in, using my own thread.
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I guess Osasuna won I will post my 2nd bet later
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Wonder what price they were 2-0 down
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My 2nd bet is on Silver Adonis £40 at 2.72
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Yeesh, don't be betting on the nags in this kind of challenge.
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Hardly close to impossible. It just requires effort, a good deal luck, patience to pick the bets and a hell of a lot of bottle (this is definitely the downfall).
If I think back to the past year or so, there are probably around five or six 1/1~ bets that I have thought are near enough nailed on, and I don't think any of them lost. |
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Scratch the hardly close to impossible bit. I do believe all factors combined this is extremely, extremely unlikely.
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you changed your mind in 3 minutes?
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No I agree with what I said I just think it's closer to 'impossible' than I initially let on.
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Nowhere near impossible. I'm not saying I will crack it, just that SOMEBODY with the skill, patience and obvious good luck can, and hopefully will.
As for the valid 'bottle' factor that is repetitively being raised on this thread - again, I did say that if I progressed a good way in this challenge then I would withdraw profits before it got too heavy. Hopefully some of us here will get the chance to make that decision! But if you can reach the 10k barrier 2, 3 or 4 times over a long period, then maybe some brave souls will be satisfied with what they've had from the challenge to date . . . and be prepared to gamble for the big one. Psychologically, if you can always keep it in the back of your minded that you started offf with only £20, then accepting the £80k blowout might seem a little less painful. Still pondering Bet 2... Wigan catch the eye at home v West Ham in the 'must win' on Sunday. Blackpool to do Bolton? Would backing Stoke to beat City really be too reckless? Now where's that roulette wheel... |
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In theory, if someone attempted this once every day, they should succeed on average once every 22/23 years, assuming they don't go bankrupt first.
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