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I know this has been talked about on here before from time to time, but I’m ready to take it on for the first time.
After years of trying (and failing) to make consistent profits, I’m growing increasingly impatient in my quest to pay off my mortgage and have now decided to attempt to go from a starting bank of £20 to £155,000 (after 5% commission) in just 14 even money (or at odds of better than 2.00) bets. I will simply double my stake each time I win. When I lose I will start again.
Here’s how it will pan out if all goes according to plan (stop laughing):
Bet 1 £20 to win £20
Bet 2 £40 to win £80
Bet 3 £80 to win £160
Bet 4 £160 to win £320
Bet 5 £320 to win £640
Etc, etc, etc
Bet 13 £81,920 to win £163,840 (before commission)
There will be an obvious temptation to withdraw at any point if the snowball exceeds a couple of grand, and I may well do this if I get the chance to. But very soon I’d like to stick it out all the way to the target of £150k. The way I see it, I won’t cry over losing my original £20 bank (it’s not like I’ll be gambling away £5k I had taken months/years to build up, so the inevitable loss(es) until I crack the ultimate target will be acceptable.
I’m not kidding myself that it will be done in one go, or even two or three attempts. But it CAN be done. There are 14 good value even money shots out there and I’m prepared to be patient enough to attempt it over a period of, say, a month, using mainly football, tennis, cricket and golf markets (don’t do the horses).
I realise that getting matched may be a problem the further I progress, but I will be staking in the higher profile events anyway, where there is most liquidity. All bets will be ante-post.
How many times will I be prepared to repeat the exercise until I finally succeed? It depends how far I get in the first few attempts, I suppose. But got to be worth 15-20 attempts purely to satisfy curiosity and to say ‘well at least I had a go’.
Have you, or do you know someone, who has attempted this or something similar? If so, how far did they get?
Serious comments welcomed.
After years of trying (and failing) to make consistent profits, I’m growing increasingly impatient in my quest to pay off my mortgage and have now decided to attempt to go from a starting bank of £20 to £155,000 (after 5% commission) in just 14 even money (or at odds of better than 2.00) bets. I will simply double my stake each time I win. When I lose I will start again.
Here’s how it will pan out if all goes according to plan (stop laughing):
Bet 1 £20 to win £20
Bet 2 £40 to win £80
Bet 3 £80 to win £160
Bet 4 £160 to win £320
Bet 5 £320 to win £640
Etc, etc, etc
Bet 13 £81,920 to win £163,840 (before commission)
There will be an obvious temptation to withdraw at any point if the snowball exceeds a couple of grand, and I may well do this if I get the chance to. But very soon I’d like to stick it out all the way to the target of £150k. The way I see it, I won’t cry over losing my original £20 bank (it’s not like I’ll be gambling away £5k I had taken months/years to build up, so the inevitable loss(es) until I crack the ultimate target will be acceptable.
I’m not kidding myself that it will be done in one go, or even two or three attempts. But it CAN be done. There are 14 good value even money shots out there and I’m prepared to be patient enough to attempt it over a period of, say, a month, using mainly football, tennis, cricket and golf markets (don’t do the horses).
I realise that getting matched may be a problem the further I progress, but I will be staking in the higher profile events anyway, where there is most liquidity. All bets will be ante-post.
How many times will I be prepared to repeat the exercise until I finally succeed? It depends how far I get in the first few attempts, I suppose. But got to be worth 15-20 attempts purely to satisfy curiosity and to say ‘well at least I had a go’.
Have you, or do you know someone, who has attempted this or something similar? If so, how far did they get?
Serious comments welcomed.
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good luck marketfeeder. 4 bets sounds easy but i aint sure
Thanks for the feedback and support.
Not at all sure what bet 6 will be. They reckon you shouldn't go looking too far for it, and that the best bets 'come to you'. No rush.
As the stakes are raised, I guess it's most likely to come in either cricket or tennis, longer events that could offer laying opportunities if the bet looks in danger of going pear-shaped, as opposed to anything in the 90 minute football markets.
It's interesting how psychology plays its part as you make progress. There seem to be a million obvious even money bets out there when you are only staking the first £20 but a stab with £640 leads to much greater scrutiny and you find yourself finding numerous reasons why NOT to have the bet you were considering. Which is no bad thing, I suppose.
Not at all sure what bet 6 will be. They reckon you shouldn't go looking too far for it, and that the best bets 'come to you'. No rush.
As the stakes are raised, I guess it's most likely to come in either cricket or tennis, longer events that could offer laying opportunities if the bet looks in danger of going pear-shaped, as opposed to anything in the 90 minute football markets.
It's interesting how psychology plays its part as you make progress. There seem to be a million obvious even money bets out there when you are only staking the first £20 but a stab with £640 leads to much greater scrutiny and you find yourself finding numerous reasons why NOT to have the bet you were considering. Which is no bad thing, I suppose.
glad to see you still going with this Plechy.
can you just list each bet so far and what the bank is for a quick summary please?
can you just list each bet so far and what the bank is for a quick summary please?
paulme - here you go.
BET 1, May 9
Fulham v Liverpool. Back Next Goal Liverpool, £20 @ 2.16. Lost.
-----------------------------------------------------------------
BET 1, May 10
Man City v Spurs. Back Man City win, £20 @ 2.00.
City won 1-0.
BET 2, May 15
Wigan v West Ham. Back Wigan win, £40 @ 2.08.
Wigan won 3-2.
BET 3, May 16
Swansea v Nottm Forest. Back Swansea win, £80 @ 2.00.
Swansea won 3-1.
BET 4, May 28
Barcelona v Man Utd. Back Barca to win in 90 mins, £160 @ 2.06.
Barcelona won 3-1.
BET 5, June 3-7
England v Sri Lanka, 2nd Test @ Lord's. Back England to score 450 or more first innings runs, £320 @ 2.00.
***Bet 5 abandoned. Layed England 1st inns runs for £15 profit to retrieve original £320 stake and get out of bet. Of course, they went on to score 486!
BET 5, August 18-22
England v India, 4th Test @ The Oval. Back England to win, £320 @ 2.58.
England win by an innings and eight runs.
So bank for this now stands at approx £640.
BET 1, May 9
Fulham v Liverpool. Back Next Goal Liverpool, £20 @ 2.16. Lost.
-----------------------------------------------------------------
BET 1, May 10
Man City v Spurs. Back Man City win, £20 @ 2.00.
City won 1-0.
BET 2, May 15
Wigan v West Ham. Back Wigan win, £40 @ 2.08.
Wigan won 3-2.
BET 3, May 16
Swansea v Nottm Forest. Back Swansea win, £80 @ 2.00.
Swansea won 3-1.
BET 4, May 28
Barcelona v Man Utd. Back Barca to win in 90 mins, £160 @ 2.06.
Barcelona won 3-1.
BET 5, June 3-7
England v Sri Lanka, 2nd Test @ Lord's. Back England to score 450 or more first innings runs, £320 @ 2.00.
***Bet 5 abandoned. Layed England 1st inns runs for £15 profit to retrieve original £320 stake and get out of bet. Of course, they went on to score 486!
BET 5, August 18-22
England v India, 4th Test @ The Oval. Back England to win, £320 @ 2.58.
England win by an innings and eight runs.
So bank for this now stands at approx £640.
Saw this thread just before your last bet on the cricket, I love it, 5 bets since May certainly shows you have the patience and discipline for thread to succeed. Will keep an eye on it, best of luck, hope you reach your target.
My attempt failed at the first with Charlton drawing last night.
Here's my question, you can research all you want, find all the form and stats and find a real value bet and it can still lose. Is there any real difference in just arbitarily picking any even money bets and hoping for a good run.
Because things you think are nailed on do lose (if not we'd all be millionaires) so is there any actual differece, your just dependant on a lucky run.
Not having a go, I think it's a great idea and I hope you do it Plechy. I'm starting to think that 10 even money shots mite be difficult, 20 1.5's mite be easier.
Here's my question, you can research all you want, find all the form and stats and find a real value bet and it can still lose. Is there any real difference in just arbitarily picking any even money bets and hoping for a good run.
Because things you think are nailed on do lose (if not we'd all be millionaires) so is there any actual differece, your just dependant on a lucky run.
Not having a go, I think it's a great idea and I hope you do it Plechy. I'm starting to think that 10 even money shots mite be difficult, 20 1.5's mite be easier.
Blindprobe: 'Patience & Discipline' is what many on here swear by as the only means to long-term success in betting. However, I must be honest and admit that, aside from this attempt, I have also been having plenty of other bets (including many at odds-on) and naturally some of them have lost, so I don't want to come across as some expert. Far from it.
Marketfeeder: It goes without saying that luck plays an important part in all betting, otherwise, as you say, we'd all be millionaires. And the killer is, bad luck will wreck a clear odds-on 'banker' as much as an even money shot. I take your point about targeting 20 x 1.5 bets but you are just as likely to be tripped up by one of them as you would backing half as many at 2.00 or more.
Football is my favourite sport but, as I've found to some cost over the years, not always the best for winning bets! You mentioned Charlton drawing 1-1 at home with Sheff Wed last night, in which they hardly justified their 1.77 SP. Charlton have made a good start to the season while Sheff Wed had not won away, so the home side were rightly well fancied. But, as someone who watches quite a lot of League One football live at the ground, I can vouch for these teams' sudden bouts of ineptitude and unpredictability - not just from one game to the next, but minute by minute! So I have now decided to steer clear of any teams below the Premier League in terms of single bets.
My latest theory is to revolve most of my football betting activity around four top European teams - Man Utd and Man City, plus Barcelona and Real Madrid. I realise they offer very short pre-match prices and are rarely value as single match bets, but this season I believe they will fit my criterion nicely for bets involving over 2.5 goals and laying correct scores in-play.
What appeals is that those four teams have a number of different players who are realistically capable of scoring at any time, almost from out of nothing, and create more chances per game than any other teams (Arsenal may join this category when at full strength).
Just my thoughts. As I say, I'm certainly no expert.
Marketfeeder: It goes without saying that luck plays an important part in all betting, otherwise, as you say, we'd all be millionaires. And the killer is, bad luck will wreck a clear odds-on 'banker' as much as an even money shot. I take your point about targeting 20 x 1.5 bets but you are just as likely to be tripped up by one of them as you would backing half as many at 2.00 or more.
Football is my favourite sport but, as I've found to some cost over the years, not always the best for winning bets! You mentioned Charlton drawing 1-1 at home with Sheff Wed last night, in which they hardly justified their 1.77 SP. Charlton have made a good start to the season while Sheff Wed had not won away, so the home side were rightly well fancied. But, as someone who watches quite a lot of League One football live at the ground, I can vouch for these teams' sudden bouts of ineptitude and unpredictability - not just from one game to the next, but minute by minute! So I have now decided to steer clear of any teams below the Premier League in terms of single bets.
My latest theory is to revolve most of my football betting activity around four top European teams - Man Utd and Man City, plus Barcelona and Real Madrid. I realise they offer very short pre-match prices and are rarely value as single match bets, but this season I believe they will fit my criterion nicely for bets involving over 2.5 goals and laying correct scores in-play.
What appeals is that those four teams have a number of different players who are realistically capable of scoring at any time, almost from out of nothing, and create more chances per game than any other teams (Arsenal may join this category when at full strength).
Just my thoughts. As I say, I'm certainly no expert.
with such challenges, luck is the biggest factor... when you are going all-in success matters as much as value..
Ok for everyone who says it can't be done, how about laying even money shots and then doubling it till you get a loser. Yea you'd need a good bank but chances are you won't have to go too deep into it. Would aroung 10k be safe enough?
Plechy,
You have not had a bet (I presume your doing other normal betting on separate bank though) since Aug 18th that's a lot of discipline! Good luck with this wish you all the best.
You have not had a bet (I presume your doing other normal betting on separate bank though) since Aug 18th that's a lot of discipline! Good luck with this wish you all the best.
Plechy you are an Incurable Optimist this is admirable but try flipping a coin and having it land on heads (or tails) 14 times in a row. This is the scale of your challenge!
Plechy you are an Incurable Optimist this is admirable but try flipping a coin and having it land on heads (or tails) 14 times in a row. This is the scale of your challenge!
Every dog has their day.....
http://contests.covers.com/SportsContests/Survivor/leaderboard.aspx
http://contests.covers.com/SportsContests/Survivor/leaderboard.aspx
Hi guys,
Thanks plechy you inadvertantly have given me a great system. I've been laying even money shots in the place market and have never had more than 6 in a row so I think laying them is better than backing them. I'm up £1,047 for this month and hope a long run doesn't wipe me out.
Thanks plechy you inadvertantly have given me a great system. I've been laying even money shots in the place market and have never had more than 6 in a row so I think laying them is better than backing them. I'm up £1,047 for this month and hope a long run doesn't wipe me out.
ive been to the casino 232 times..never seen more than 6 in a row of any colour...
it will happen tho.
it will happen tho.
I once spun the number 18 ... 5 times in a ROW [;)] when I was younger and working in a casino ....
Seriously !
Seriously !
Any update to this challenge Plechy .... anything that took your fancy over the last 10 days or so since you last posted ?
it's not martingale exactly as I only lay under evens and sometimes the only one under 2's is 1.5 or 1.8 so if I get a long losing run then I will get more back that the origial stake. I've only had runs of 6, got enough to cover a run of 10 so I'm hoping i'm ok.
BackOddsStakePotential Profit
17 Kheskianto
2.71
19.99
£34.26
17 Kheskianto
2.71
19.99
£34.26
Surely this should have been titled doubling stakes to win 150k slow 
Just seen this thread. Good stuff, best of luck if it is still going
Seeing as how this Guy has deserted us, I am going to hijack this thread,and try and do it myself!
I am going to start with £100 though, so it should only take around 11 bets. I will be having the first bet this weekend. I mainly bet on Football, Tennis, Darts and Snooker.
Any thoughts or Ideas for a good first bet, around the Even money mark?
I am going to start with £100 though, so it should only take around 11 bets. I will be having the first bet this weekend. I mainly bet on Football, Tennis, Darts and Snooker.
Any thoughts or Ideas for a good first bet, around the Even money mark?
BaldFred 5/6 A. Lewis -3.5 legs v J. Part this evening?
Doubling your stake to reach a huge payout of 150k lies in the realms of pure fantasy as the odds are staked against you, even with odds on bets you are running in quicksand hoping to get too the other side safely.
A much better approach would be trading as its possible to trade the whole of your account on either a single runner/match or using multiple bets, thus if you can average a 1% growth in the acccount per trade then although taking much longer and much more activity it would be possible to reach the target by a much reduced risk margin and via a certified method.
A much better approach would be trading as its possible to trade the whole of your account on either a single runner/match or using multiple bets, thus if you can average a 1% growth in the acccount per trade then although taking much longer and much more activity it would be possible to reach the target by a much reduced risk margin and via a certified method.
If you are familiar with the story of the tortoise and the hare then you will realize that the traders take the slow route and the risk bettors take the fast course but its the traders that have always come out on top at betfiar as trading is the principal benefit in using the betfair exchange and yet by many it is rarely operated or truly understood by the average customer imo.
Oh yeah, I do trade. This is just for fun, and almost doomed to fail I know.
An impossible dream, but Its fun trying
An impossible dream, but Its fun trying
this sort of thing has been done several times on the tennis phorum, started off by a poster known as 70k, who turned £67 into £10k in 4 days. it's a simple reverse martingale. i did one myself back in may starting with £200 ....
Soccer: £407.25 | Tennis: £25,863.19 Total P&L: £26,270.44
Tennis Showing 1 - 13 of 13 markets
Market Start time Settled date Profit/loss (£)
Tennis / Melzer v Haase : Match Odds 13-Apr-11 13:00 13-Apr-11 16:07 14,706.77
Tennis / Verdasco v Robredo : Match Odds 13-Apr-11 11:45 13-Apr-11 14:21 3,635.60
Tennis / Montanes v Simon : Match Odds 13-Apr-11 10:30 13-Apr-11 12:30 2,500.40
Tennis / Fognini v Troicki : Match Odds 13-Apr-11 10:00 13-Apr-11 12:21 -47.27
Tennis / Garcia Lopez v Gasquet : Match Odds 13-Apr-11 09:30 13-Apr-11 11:05 815.37
Tennis / O Rochus v Berdych : Match Odds 12-Apr-11 13:15 12-Apr-11 18:06 1,222.40
Tennis / Anderson v Fognini : Match Odds 12-Apr-11 10:45 12-Apr-11 14:20 -227.11
Tennis / Tipsarevic v F Lopez : Match Odds 12-Apr-11 09:30 12-Apr-11 12:09 496.60
Tennis / Bellucci v Simon : Match Odds 12-Apr-11 09:30 12-Apr-11 11:16 1,006.44
Tennis / Benneteau v Nieminen : Match Odds 11-Apr-11 16:15 11-Apr-11 20:33 1,060.44
Tennis / Tsonga v Monaco : Match Odds 11-Apr-11 12:30 11-Apr-11 17:31 385.03
Tennis / Stepanek v Baghdatis : Match Odds 11-Apr-11 12:00 11-Apr-11 16:25 251.22
Tennis / Istomin v Gasquet : Match Odds 11-Apr-11 10:30 11-Apr-11 14:40 57.30
Soccer: £407.25 | Tennis: £25,863.19 Total P&L: £26,270.44
Tennis Showing 1 - 13 of 13 markets
Market Start time Settled date Profit/loss (£)
Tennis / Melzer v Haase : Match Odds 13-Apr-11 13:00 13-Apr-11 16:07 14,706.77
Tennis / Verdasco v Robredo : Match Odds 13-Apr-11 11:45 13-Apr-11 14:21 3,635.60
Tennis / Montanes v Simon : Match Odds 13-Apr-11 10:30 13-Apr-11 12:30 2,500.40
Tennis / Fognini v Troicki : Match Odds 13-Apr-11 10:00 13-Apr-11 12:21 -47.27
Tennis / Garcia Lopez v Gasquet : Match Odds 13-Apr-11 09:30 13-Apr-11 11:05 815.37
Tennis / O Rochus v Berdych : Match Odds 12-Apr-11 13:15 12-Apr-11 18:06 1,222.40
Tennis / Anderson v Fognini : Match Odds 12-Apr-11 10:45 12-Apr-11 14:20 -227.11
Tennis / Tipsarevic v F Lopez : Match Odds 12-Apr-11 09:30 12-Apr-11 12:09 496.60
Tennis / Bellucci v Simon : Match Odds 12-Apr-11 09:30 12-Apr-11 11:16 1,006.44
Tennis / Benneteau v Nieminen : Match Odds 11-Apr-11 16:15 11-Apr-11 20:33 1,060.44
Tennis / Tsonga v Monaco : Match Odds 11-Apr-11 12:30 11-Apr-11 17:31 385.03
Tennis / Stepanek v Baghdatis : Match Odds 11-Apr-11 12:00 11-Apr-11 16:25 251.22
Tennis / Istomin v Gasquet : Match Odds 11-Apr-11 10:30 11-Apr-11 14:40 57.30
increase steaks on a winner, rather than the other way round.
Going well so far, I've laid it off and left all the green on Beaton, £104 profit if he wins, but the chance to start again if not
1st bet a loser 
Beaton lead 2-0 then 6-4, but then lost 5 in a row to trail 9-6 After a valiant effort eventually lost 10-8
So I'll start again
Bet 1 Mark Webster -2.5 legs in the next. £100 at 2.06
Beaton lead 2-0 then 6-4, but then lost 5 in a row to trail 9-6 After a valiant effort eventually lost 10-8
So I'll start again
Bet 1 Mark Webster -2.5 legs in the next. £100 at 2.06
I've laid this one off, As I've written it off 5-5 at the break I still think Webster will win but not by 3
not going well but good to see someone giving it a go
Well, I called it dead right, but I can't believe how it played out!
5-5 at the break, then Phillips took 3 in a row to lead 8-5, before Webster came back by winning 5 in a row to win 10-8.
A very poor match though, and Webster nowhere near his best, I think he got caught up in the emotion of playing his Hero, and close friend.
This Challenge is impossible!
5-5 at the break, then Phillips took 3 in a row to lead 8-5, before Webster came back by winning 5 in a row to win 10-8.
A very poor match though, and Webster nowhere near his best, I think he got caught up in the emotion of playing his Hero, and close friend.
This Challenge is impossible!
I'll try again tomorrow on the football, I can't see any bets in either of the remaining two Darts matches.
Lewis is so inconsistent though, I'm sure Part beat somewhere recently too.
lay arsenal at norwich city today... their away form is poor apart from the chelsea win 2-3 weeks back.. norwich have played well so far in premier league and have good chances of taking a point from today's game.. arsenal also tend to not do well in league after a break..
gl with your challenge
gl with your challenge
Lets try again
Bet 1 £100 on under 2.5 goals at 2.04 in the Swansea vs Man United match.
Bet 1 £100 on under 2.5 goals at 2.04 in the Swansea vs Man United match.
1 down 10 to go I tried to get £200 matched at 2.00 on the Madrid match, but sadly it didn't quite get there, I should have just took the 1.95 on offer, but still tomorrow is another day
I tried to get £200 matched at 2.00 on the Madrid match, but sadly it didn't quite get there, I should have just took the 1.95 on offer, but still tomorrow is another day
wd suso, i would have taken the 1.95.. u can always find another bet which is 2.2 to compensate later , average will be even...
Right bet 2 £200 at 2.02 on Djokovic to win in straight sets v Berdych.
A very risky one, whenever I seem to back him to win in straight sets he wins either 2-1 or 3-1!! So I am long overdue a change of luck
A very risky one, whenever I seem to back him to win in straight sets he wins either 2-1 or 3-1!! So I am long overdue a change of luck
There were 3 even money plus shots I considered tonight, Spurs -1.5, Malaga to win at Santander, And Djokovic 2-0.
Obviously, the one I plumped for went down, and as I predicted he still went on to win. Luckilly I I traded in and out In running, and ended up only finishing £6.00 down overall, So I will try again with £200 soon
Obviously, the one I plumped for went down, and as I predicted he still went on to win. Luckilly I I traded in and out In running, and ended up only finishing £6.00 down overall, So I will try again with £200 soon
Ha ha ha I agree!
But of the 8 bets I've considered I've picked 4 winners and 4 losers, So I must be picking genuine Even money chances!
I'm considering a few bets tonight, United -1 or maybe just Man City away at Napoli, although I think either of these games could be a draw.
But of the 8 bets I've considered I've picked 4 winners and 4 losers, So I must be picking genuine Even money chances!
I'm considering a few bets tonight, United -1 or maybe just Man City away at Napoli, although I think either of these games could be a draw.
suso30. your answer is the little piece of logic that is missing from the the thread logic, in order to make the target figure at near realistic odds you have to divide the target amount by the start stake to work out the odds of success i.e. in this case £163,860 / £20, in other words "highly unlikely".
realistic growth has to accomodate the defitite but tangable effect of losses in order to survive to objective, double or nothing is not a realistic option in choosing such a stake plan.
Oh yeah I realise that, as quite a few people have already mentioned this challenge is very unlikely, and impossible on here as, you would never be able to get £75,000 matched!!
I was looking through my account earlier and, I once got backed 13 consecutive horses to place, all at odds of greater than 2.00, although there is not enough liquidity in the place market to do it by doubling stakes from £100.
I was looking through my account earlier and, I once got backed 13 consecutive horses to place, all at odds of greater than 2.00, although there is not enough liquidity in the place market to do it by doubling stakes from £100.
Sorry for appearing to have abandoned the thread. Not so. Have put this mammoth challenge on hold while trying to build my bank on other stuff, mainly pursuing a new believe in laying correct scores in-play and, most recently, backing over 1.5 goals pre-match.
Must admit, I've had mixed results. About six of 70-plus CS lays have failed, which is not a bad ratio I suppose and I'm still ahead with it overall.
But back to the point of this thread, I have been regularly withdrawing funds in recent months to pay for living costs, while maintaining a balance of £1,000. To be honest, I've resisted all temptation to plunge the next £600 stake on an even money shot while my bank is this low. The cynics will (understandably) call it 'losing my bottle' and I wouldn't argue with that. Yes, I;'ve revised my initial thinking on it. The fact is, I'm not in a good position to carry this forward at this stage. I'd rather pay the mortgage and normal family household bills, etc, as a priority than try and be a hero here and lose the lot for the sake of keeping face.
I'm not saying the doubling stakes to £150k can't be done, but it's fair to say that I'm probably not equipped to get anywhere near it yet without beign totally reckless and, in any case, it would probably take much longer than I had first imagined.
Wish I'd taken the 2.00-plus about Spurs at WBA last Saturday, though!
Good luck to Suso30 and all others trying to make this game work...
Must admit, I've had mixed results. About six of 70-plus CS lays have failed, which is not a bad ratio I suppose and I'm still ahead with it overall.
But back to the point of this thread, I have been regularly withdrawing funds in recent months to pay for living costs, while maintaining a balance of £1,000. To be honest, I've resisted all temptation to plunge the next £600 stake on an even money shot while my bank is this low. The cynics will (understandably) call it 'losing my bottle' and I wouldn't argue with that. Yes, I;'ve revised my initial thinking on it. The fact is, I'm not in a good position to carry this forward at this stage. I'd rather pay the mortgage and normal family household bills, etc, as a priority than try and be a hero here and lose the lot for the sake of keeping face.
I'm not saying the doubling stakes to £150k can't be done, but it's fair to say that I'm probably not equipped to get anywhere near it yet without beign totally reckless and, in any case, it would probably take much longer than I had first imagined.
Wish I'd taken the 2.00-plus about Spurs at WBA last Saturday, though!
Good luck to Suso30 and all others trying to make this game work...
Hi
Thanks for the update. I don't see it as losing your bottle at all. The thought of plunging 100s of pounds on an even money shot, and not looking to trade In running Is crazy! and beyond crazy if you were lucky enough to get into the thousands at any point.
I actually think laying things at even money or shorter is a better way for this challenge.
Thanks for the update. I don't see it as losing your bottle at all. The thought of plunging 100s of pounds on an even money shot, and not looking to trade In running Is crazy! and beyond crazy if you were lucky enough to get into the thousands at any point.
I actually think laying things at even money or shorter is a better way for this challenge.
ok i am going to give this a try as i have some time in my hand.. i have GBP 15.50 lying in my australian wallet so will start with that
Bet 1: Back Adelaide (A-league) 15.50 @ 2.5
Bet 1: Back Adelaide (A-league) 15.50 @ 2.5
that challenge lasted 30 secs.. as soon the bet got matched, gold coast scored.. 
will try again
will try again
Time to move this on with Bet 6 . . .
BET 1, May 9
Fulham v Liverpool. Back Next Goal Liverpool, £20 @ 2.16. Lost.
-----------------------------------------------------------------
BET 1, May 10
Man City v Spurs. Back Man City win, £20 @ 2.00.
City won 1-0.
BET 2, May 15
Wigan v West Ham. Back Wigan win, £40 @ 2.08.
Wigan won 3-2.
BET 3, May 16
Swansea v Nottm Forest. Back Swansea win, £80 @ 2.00.
Swansea won 3-1.
BET 4, May 28
Barcelona v Man Utd. Back Barca to win in 90 mins, £160 @ 2.06.
Barcelona won 3-1.
BET 5, June 3-7
England v Sri Lanka, 2nd Test @ Lord's. Back England to score 450 or more first innings runs, £320 @ 2.00.
***Bet 5 abandoned. Layed England 1st inns runs for £15 profit to retrieve original £320 stake and get out of bet. Of course, they went on to score 486!
BET 5, August 18-22
England v India, 4th Test @ The Oval. Back England to win, £320 @ 2.58.
England win by an innings and eight runs.
BET 6, February 13, 2012
Pakistan v England ODI Series. Back Pakistan to win the 4-match ODI series, £640 @ 2.04.
BET 1, May 9
Fulham v Liverpool. Back Next Goal Liverpool, £20 @ 2.16. Lost.
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BET 1, May 10
Man City v Spurs. Back Man City win, £20 @ 2.00.
City won 1-0.
BET 2, May 15
Wigan v West Ham. Back Wigan win, £40 @ 2.08.
Wigan won 3-2.
BET 3, May 16
Swansea v Nottm Forest. Back Swansea win, £80 @ 2.00.
Swansea won 3-1.
BET 4, May 28
Barcelona v Man Utd. Back Barca to win in 90 mins, £160 @ 2.06.
Barcelona won 3-1.
BET 5, June 3-7
England v Sri Lanka, 2nd Test @ Lord's. Back England to score 450 or more first innings runs, £320 @ 2.00.
***Bet 5 abandoned. Layed England 1st inns runs for £15 profit to retrieve original £320 stake and get out of bet. Of course, they went on to score 486!
BET 5, August 18-22
England v India, 4th Test @ The Oval. Back England to win, £320 @ 2.58.
England win by an innings and eight runs.
BET 6, February 13, 2012
Pakistan v England ODI Series. Back Pakistan to win the 4-match ODI series, £640 @ 2.04.
gud luck mate don't know much about cricket but hope it comes in
Bob - Not so good. It lost!
To be honest, it was a stupid bet. Pakistan had mullered England 3-0 in the Test series and I should never have presumed that they would also dominate in the ODIs, where one decent batting partnership, one dropped catch, a slice of good/bad luck, can turn a game on its head in an instant.
It was also a cardinal sin to place the bet before the toss and without taking at least a cursory look at how the pitch was going to play.
I must stick to Tests for bigger stakes bets.
I still believe the original plan could be achieved. Just not by me!
To be honest, it was a stupid bet. Pakistan had mullered England 3-0 in the Test series and I should never have presumed that they would also dominate in the ODIs, where one decent batting partnership, one dropped catch, a slice of good/bad luck, can turn a game on its head in an instant.
It was also a cardinal sin to place the bet before the toss and without taking at least a cursory look at how the pitch was going to play.
I must stick to Tests for bigger stakes bets.
I still believe the original plan could be achieved. Just not by me!
Like Plechy, I believe that this can be achieved. As much as he is kicking himself, we have all 'compromised' on a selection.
The worse, of course, is when the bet doesn't come off and all the reasons that we were aware of glare at us through the final result.
In my case, it is laying pre-off a horse Hayley Turner is riding. The punters view of that the horse is ridden by a woman still adds several ticks to the price. I now only lay her in-running after 50% of the race has passed and if the price has moved in 30% from the off.
The worse, of course, is when the bet doesn't come off and all the reasons that we were aware of glare at us through the final result.
In my case, it is laying pre-off a horse Hayley Turner is riding. The punters view of that the horse is ridden by a woman still adds several ticks to the price. I now only lay her in-running after 50% of the race has passed and if the price has moved in 30% from the off.
Sorry, my statement was a bit 'general' on "conditions" to lay H T in-running.
It depends on how the race is panning out. Then, if the odds are value to lay (around 30% in), I'll hit the button.
For the record, I'm backing Punching in the 13:50 with Hayley on board
It depends on how the race is panning out. Then, if the odds are value to lay (around 30% in), I'll hit the button.
For the record, I'm backing Punching in the 13:50 with Hayley on board
by the way, Punching.....3.3 at the off......sub 1.5 in-running...
This thread demonstrates the reason why it is very rare for somebody with a gambling mentality will rarely end up in front.
This sentence here: The way I see it, I won’t cry over losing my original £20 bank is the reason gamblers ultimately lose. They don't see the 13th bet of 85k dollars as money, it is just profits and if it loses you only lost 20 bucks.
The reality though, is that 85k is 85k no matter how you got it.
Risking 85k dollars for a 20 dollar bettor is just ridiculous. Risking 300 dollars for a 20 dollar bettor is ridiculous.
Yes, I understand if it came off the forum would be jumping for joy, but who the hell are we? Random names on the internet. Your money is better spent on other ventures. Stick the profits on the mortgage and you probably make more than you make on here anyway. Unless you are a punter that makes >7% your money is better off paying off your mortgage, and will ultimately see you much better off.
This sentence here: The way I see it, I won’t cry over losing my original £20 bank is the reason gamblers ultimately lose. They don't see the 13th bet of 85k dollars as money, it is just profits and if it loses you only lost 20 bucks.
The reality though, is that 85k is 85k no matter how you got it.
Risking 85k dollars for a 20 dollar bettor is just ridiculous. Risking 300 dollars for a 20 dollar bettor is ridiculous.
Yes, I understand if it came off the forum would be jumping for joy, but who the hell are we? Random names on the internet. Your money is better spent on other ventures. Stick the profits on the mortgage and you probably make more than you make on here anyway. Unless you are a punter that makes >7% your money is better off paying off your mortgage, and will ultimately see you much better off.
BJT, you're correct on that when it comes to the 'double up' approach.
I've always thought the approach would be to bet then bank 50% when you land it so that after around four or five bets, you are reaping the rewards of your progress.
I've always thought the approach would be to bet then bank 50% when you land it so that after around four or five bets, you are reaping the rewards of your progress.
martingale is a very profitable way of betting at the same time a very risky strategy. if u consider ways to mitigate the risk involved then u are a winner.
very true BJT. i keep a record of my total lifetime profit/loss across all online sites ive ever used.
it is in the negative and i don't expect to ever get out of it now
it is in the negative and i don't expect to ever get out of it now
BJT - believe me, losing £640 did matter a lot to me and I do appreciate the value of money, hence why it took me so long between placing the 5th and 6th bets.
Not wishing to boast but purely to address the point you've raised, between those last two bets relevant to this thread I have won £3k-plus on a long winning streak all built around Test cricket. Of 50 bets, I lost just two - and they amounted to no more than £30-40. There were numerous opportunities during those Test matches in India, Australia and UAE when the odds were evens or better but I resisted the doubling-up stakes and showed more caution on those occasions.
I have also been staking in the hundreds (and profiting by the hundreds in many cases) during this long period since August, so I wouldn't say it was a case of a £20 bettor being out of his depth or not appreciating the sums involved. I just called it wrong. Badly wrong in this case.
My mistake was being presumptuous about Pakistan's form and England lack of it, and not being professional enough to wait and see how things would pan out in what is a totally different form of the game.
Bob - I won't be trying this one again for the forseeable future, but never say never...
Test cricket is definitely where it's at for me.
GL all.
Not wishing to boast but purely to address the point you've raised, between those last two bets relevant to this thread I have won £3k-plus on a long winning streak all built around Test cricket. Of 50 bets, I lost just two - and they amounted to no more than £30-40. There were numerous opportunities during those Test matches in India, Australia and UAE when the odds were evens or better but I resisted the doubling-up stakes and showed more caution on those occasions.
I have also been staking in the hundreds (and profiting by the hundreds in many cases) during this long period since August, so I wouldn't say it was a case of a £20 bettor being out of his depth or not appreciating the sums involved. I just called it wrong. Badly wrong in this case.
My mistake was being presumptuous about Pakistan's form and England lack of it, and not being professional enough to wait and see how things would pan out in what is a totally different form of the game.
Bob - I won't be trying this one again for the forseeable future, but never say never...
Test cricket is definitely where it's at for me.
GL all.
Bob - the winning streak was not really based on gut feeling or trading. To be honest, the Test series I benefited from since last August were pretty clear cut . . . England hammering India at home; India avenging big style at home; and then Australia hammering India in Oz.
I would invariably back the home team with a couple of hundred pounds from Day One and top up as the game progressed over the five days. I guess the most I would have 'on the line' at stake would be somewhwere between £500-600 at any given time during a Test, which is peanuts compared to the pro's.
But the key point is, I would watch most of the game, even if it meant early hours viewing from the UK. I invested a lot of time watching the matches develop, but I enjoy doing that anyway regardless of betting, so it was no sacrifice in termns of time and effort.
To be honest, I've just thrown £100 away backing England in the first T20 v Pakistan earlier tonight (Thurs). I didn't trade a penny during the game. I let my initial feeling ride. They should have won it, but... well, we've all got millions of reasons why things don't go the way we expected them to, haven't we?
Basel's late winner v Bayern Munich cost me £400 last night, so it's not a great time. But I will learn from that too. Unlike in Test match cricket, a football team can dominate for 60% of the game, but still inexplicably lose at the death, sometimes by 2-3 goals.
From now on, in football, I'm going to be betting small stakes on the inexplicable happening!
I would invariably back the home team with a couple of hundred pounds from Day One and top up as the game progressed over the five days. I guess the most I would have 'on the line' at stake would be somewhwere between £500-600 at any given time during a Test, which is peanuts compared to the pro's.
But the key point is, I would watch most of the game, even if it meant early hours viewing from the UK. I invested a lot of time watching the matches develop, but I enjoy doing that anyway regardless of betting, so it was no sacrifice in termns of time and effort.
To be honest, I've just thrown £100 away backing England in the first T20 v Pakistan earlier tonight (Thurs). I didn't trade a penny during the game. I let my initial feeling ride. They should have won it, but... well, we've all got millions of reasons why things don't go the way we expected them to, haven't we?
Basel's late winner v Bayern Munich cost me £400 last night, so it's not a great time. But I will learn from that too. Unlike in Test match cricket, a football team can dominate for 60% of the game, but still inexplicably lose at the death, sometimes by 2-3 goals.
From now on, in football, I'm going to be betting small stakes on the inexplicable happening!
"in just 14 even money (or at odds of better than 2.00) bets" - have you worked out the probability of this happening?
The major difference between a pro gambler and a typical adventure recreational or compulsive gambler is the belief in the merit of the big hit or the "big win".
Punters with more wisdom will off dumped the belief in taking on high risk to arrive at quick gain in favor of a methodical application of edge bets of minimal size and let organic growth take its much slower but positive course.
Punters with more wisdom will off dumped the belief in taking on high risk to arrive at quick gain in favor of a methodical application of edge bets of minimal size and let organic growth take its much slower but positive course.
It takes a bigger pair to bet small and use a method every care with care than it does to throw your money at high stakes on unsure returns!
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