Further note

Friday night math (wine factor).  475 was at 2.3 at the time so obviously post was on quick math.

Thanks for the comments. I decided to bail out and retrieve my full £320 stake, plus a £15 profit in the process.

They will probably reach 450 but it's too risky. The original bet was placed on the basis that two of Strauss, Cook, Trott or Cook would score 100 and the other two at least 50 each, with the reamining six contributing the rest.

I dodged a silver bullet with yesterday afternoon's session of 177 and don't want to put my luck this morning.

england reached 486 but good decision to bail out

A great example of using the exchanges [;)]

Ask yourself this.

If the £320 bet on the cricket had been for £20 would you have greened out. My guess is no. You would have let it run.

I think you've hit your emotional staking level. You should bank £300 and start again with £20.

Time to resume...

Grateful to have won a fair bit in recent weeks (with smaller stakes) backing England against inept India, so time to go in bigger...

Bet 5: England v India - 4th Test @ The Oval, Aug 18-22, 2011. England to win, £320 @ 2.58.

when/if you get to bet 13 where will you get 80k at evens?

Weather? Four days will be enough to get the job done.

no play looks likely today so hope you were right about the 4 days...  england win is out to 3.55 and draw at 1.47

a good day of cricket so far.. england on top...  price on draw still holding though..

Cheers ocean0201.

Must admit, I'd written it off as a loser at lunch on the fifth day, with Tendulkar and Mishra looking well set. Was driving on the M1 and turned TMS off on the radio and stuck in a CD, vowing not to bother retuning to TMS after the lunch break. Fully expected to hear the dreaded draw confirmed when I reached my destination.

Then, well into the afternoion, the missus phoned to say it was raining Indian wickets.

Just shows you how the wheel of fortune can spin.

is tattoo getting nervous?...his monthly bonus cud be up the swanee..

i have only read to the (stop laughing) bit

Hi Pletchy,

Facinating thread, I'm going to give it ago although I'm slightly less amitious and when I get to £24,480 I'll stop as that's enough for me. What do you guys think of starting at £1,280 then you'll only have to win 4 bets to make your living, but obvioulsy you don't get too many goes at it.

Thanks for the feedback and support.

Not at all sure what bet 6 will be. They reckon you shouldn't go looking too far for it, and that the best bets 'come to you'. No rush.

As the stakes are raised, I guess it's most likely to come in either cricket or tennis, longer events that could offer laying opportunities if the bet looks in danger of going pear-shaped, as opposed to anything in the 90 minute football markets.

It's interesting how psychology plays its part as you make progress. There seem to be a million obvious even money bets out there when you are only staking the first £20 but a stab with £640 leads to much greater scrutiny and you find yourself finding numerous reasons why NOT to have the bet you were considering. Which is no bad thing, I suppose.

paulme - here you go.


BET 1, May 9
Fulham v Liverpool. Back Next Goal Liverpool, £20 @ 2.16. Lost.
-----------------------------------------------------------------
BET 1, May 10
Man City v Spurs. Back Man City win, £20 @ 2.00.
City won 1-0.

BET 2, May 15
Wigan v West Ham. Back Wigan win, £40 @ 2.08.
Wigan won 3-2.

BET 3, May 16
Swansea v Nottm Forest. Back Swansea win, £80 @ 2.00.
Swansea won 3-1.

BET 4, May 28
Barcelona v Man Utd. Back Barca to win in 90 mins, £160 @ 2.06.
Barcelona won 3-1.

BET 5, June 3-7
England v Sri Lanka, 2nd Test @ Lord's. Back England to score 450 or more first innings runs, £320 @ 2.00.
***Bet 5 abandoned. Layed England 1st inns runs for £15 profit to retrieve original £320 stake and get out of bet. Of course, they went on to score 486!

BET 5, August 18-22
England v India, 4th Test @ The Oval. Back England to win, £320 @ 2.58.
England win by an innings and eight runs.

So bank for this now stands at approx £640.

good luck with bet 6 plechy. let the bet find you

Blindprobe: 'Patience & Discipline' is what many on here swear by as the only means to long-term success in betting. However, I must be honest and admit that, aside from this attempt, I have also been having plenty of other bets (including many at odds-on) and naturally some of them have lost, so I don't want to come across as some expert. Far from it.

Marketfeeder: It goes without saying that luck plays an important part in all betting, otherwise, as you say, we'd all be millionaires. And the killer is, bad luck will wreck a clear odds-on 'banker' as much as an even money shot. I take your point about targeting 20 x 1.5 bets but you are just as likely to be tripped up by one of them as you would backing half as many at 2.00 or more.

Football is my favourite sport but, as I've found to some cost over the years, not always the best for winning bets! You mentioned Charlton drawing 1-1 at home with Sheff Wed last night, in which they hardly justified their 1.77 SP. Charlton have made a good start to the season while Sheff Wed had not won away, so the home side were rightly well fancied. But, as someone who watches quite a lot of League One football live at the ground, I can vouch for these teams' sudden bouts of ineptitude and unpredictability - not just from one game to the next, but minute by minute! So I have now decided to steer clear of any teams below the Premier League in terms of single bets.

My latest theory is to revolve most of my football betting activity around four top European teams - Man Utd and Man City, plus Barcelona and Real Madrid. I realise they offer very short pre-match prices and are rarely value as single match bets, but this season I believe they will fit my criterion nicely for bets involving over 2.5 goals and laying correct scores in-play.

What appeals is that those four teams have a number of different players who are realistically capable of scoring at any time, almost from out of nothing, and create more chances per game than any other teams (Arsenal may join this category when at full strength).

Just my thoughts. As I say, I'm certainly no expert.

Ok for everyone who says it can't be done, how about laying even money shots and then doubling it till you get a loser. Yea you'd need a good bank but chances are you won't have to go too deep into it. Would aroung 10k be safe enough?

Plechy you are an Incurable Optimist this is admirable but try flipping a coin and having it land on heads (or tails) 14 times in a row.  This is the scale of your challenge!

Every dog has their day.....

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