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DFC
I really would like to believe you. It's just that from my experience in life is that if something is too good to be true then it probably is too good to believe. Pessimistic or realistic ? What is a certain trading edge I keep asking. No one replies ever. How do you ever know that a market is going to go a certain way IP ? All you know at the beginning of a game is that the odds will surely change over the course of a game that's all. |
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Out of interest, does anyone really believe the post by Get On Massive.
Surely not. I sincerely hope he was just taking the michael. Otherwise? Better not go there. |
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Frog, it was me who suggested the limitation mentality but i didnt accuse you as such. It was a question, based on your previous comments about the "real world perspective".
You had suggested Contrarian wasnt grounded because he mentioned making good money from trading. You said that, nobody else did, so it must either come from a place of limitation or you simply think people are telling stories about their experiences of trading. |
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No I accept that good money can be made from trading by Contrarian probably, and quite a few others.
It's the definition of good that is in debate. To suggest that scalable returns of capital in the 100s of percent are available in sports betting with infinitessimal risk, just doesn't ring true to me. I'm willing to be proved wrong on this, but it doesn't seem to be happening. I understand the basic maths of trading ( who doesn't it's not rocket science ), but the daily volume required at the strike rate required just don't seem to tally for me. And again, if it is so readily achievable, the basic law of money would ensure that competition would close the opportunity down very quickly. Law of the jungle and all that. |
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Competition only comes from those who have similar edge.......and without having such edge there is limited "competition"....
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I take what you are saying Frog and can understand the point.
My perception of the law of the jungle is that people create patterned behaviour that is exploitable from a variety of angles, that constantly change and evolve. I dont see it as competition but more as windows of opportunity that open and close but always some are available. Thats only my view, im sure there are hundreds of ways to skin the cat...good thread though, very interesting, its late here in Sweden, im off to bed :) |
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i can vouch for contrarian and GOM's claims, but i can readily see how it would sound far fetched to someone without the ability to do it themselves
and nobody said it was scalable, ask GOM to do a 100k to 10 million challenge in a year and he would laugh at you, there isn't the liquidity in sports betting |
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To suggest that scalable returns of capital in the 100s of percent are available in sports betting with infinitessimal risk, just doesn't ring true to me.
100s of percent per month, not per bet. |
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DFC and Eldrick
I'm sure you guys fully believe in what you're saying for whatever personal reasons or experiences you have. I admit to coming at this from the viewpoint of somebody who cannot do what you're doing. But it doesn't ring true to me nonetheless. I have never ever seen written here or anywhere else what is even a theoretical edge in IP trading, apart from the obvious ones of cheating. Maybe it is all a " big " secret, but somehow I think it would be in the public domain if it really materially existed. It would be too big a thing to go either uncommented on by the media or unanalysed by the academics. |
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And I still cannot believe that GOM can at the drop of a hat turn 1K into 100K in a year.
That is just too far fetched to be reasonably believable. Everybody's wet dream though, that's for sure. |
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I have never ever seen written here or anywhere else what is even a theoretical edge in IP trading
You've had some of the smartest minds in the country explain it to you repeatedly for free, you really are lazy and ungrateful aren't you. You'll be asking for people to send you cheques in the post next! |
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He offered to bet you a million froggy. For a man of your means it should be very possible to set up an escrew and take him up on it.
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Codswallop Lori.
Some of the smartest minds in the country ? Give us a break? Nothing and I mean nothing that it is not patently obvious has been explained on here. |
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If you think the contrary then I feel very sorry for you in your little dream world.
Btw Lori how's that yellow streak of your coming along.? Growing ever bigger ? |
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Lori
Yeah but does he have an equal million. Should only take him 10 years to build it up. Or do you and others want to pile in and fund him ? |
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And of course then you could all deliberately lose 100K to him, and share in million.
Not a bad scam. |
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I have never ever seen written here or anywhere else what is even a theoretical edge in IP trading, apart from the obvious ones of cheating.
============================================================== Say for example you know a horse does have certain factors in its favour that make it very very likely to challenge and threaten to win ....or win.....due to edges you have BEFORE a race. How would you exploit such an edge IP? Is it that complex? You watch the initial start of race.....and can make a visual assessment as to whether the horse does LOOK up to your belief. If it does ...you slap money on it........say 200 at 8s BF. You then have options.........Bearing in mind , based on your edge PRIOR to the race, you believe the horse WILL threaten to win ,or win the race, AND YOU ALREADY HAVE VISUAL ASSESSMENT THAT HORSE LOOKS UP TO IT , then you can apply IP STRATEGY to TRADE to profit.....or let bet stand. OK .....various circumstances can cause you lose the stake IP........but if you do have an edge PRIOR to race ...plus visual assessment on horse IP....then this will happen very few times.... All you need is 1 to 3 horses a day that fall in this category and you have the THEORETICAL IP EDGE ....without CHEATING! Someone with 10,000 bank could operate that way and make at least 300 a day........................but this is NOT what Contrarian stated ...he was talking about many many small bets IP ...in and out a number of times IP etc etc ......and the application of his edge on a particular event. Does this meet with an example of THEORETICAL EDGE IP? |
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DFC
I'm going to have to put my hands up in the air here and say that you've got me where HR is concerned. I will freely admit that I should have added the rider that it might just be possible for a few HR experts, as there are so many races and so many permutations of what might happen. However, I still would have some reservations, albeit nowhere near as strong or well founded in the HR scenario, that this would yield the returns on capital being quoted on a consistent basis. HR betting has been around for centuries and ( correct me if I'm wrong) has never been seen as a sure fire, guaranteed way to wealth and riches ( apart from a few lucky owners and top jockeys and trainers, that is the inside the rails type ). If there is a proof positive out there to counter my general disbelief in all this, it will most certainly probably be in HR, a sport with which I am utterly unfamiliar with. My thanks to you for the time and effort you pretty obviously put in your well constructed reply to me. |
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I have never ever seen written here or anywhere else what is even a theoretical edge in IP trading, apart from the obvious ones of cheating.
No one is going to say exactly what they do, but I did give a true example earlier in the thread, that you dismissed. I know of another certain c/s trading edge where you can achieve 5 ticks straight after kick off, and it's extremely easy to spot and implement, especially as I've just spelt it out :) |
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In effect Koo... thread shows what someone COULD DO ...10,000 to over 600,000 in around about 6 months......OK ....He could have lost that 10,000........and he did have reserve bank to call on if required ...probably well over 150,000.....but for the thread shown by Koo....he used what he knew ....his various edges and did remarkably well......
I understand he may have lost money recently....but hopefully he is still well up over all ....Only he knows this .... Are you sure you are not researching for a thesis????   G M the nooooooooooooooooooo |
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Trevh
Unlike HR where there are many races in the course of the day, happening at different times, in football you don't really have that luxury of multiple events occurring one after the other to bet on. You might be lucky to be able to get onto a few IR in the course of 24 hrs to manage your exposures in the active way necessary to make money. But could you really get onto enough day in day out to make the sort of money being talked about here, using only very small bet sizes? DFC As I said about Koo are we actually seeing the whole picture of his betting activities.? But as I also said I make any comments on HR betting successes with extreme reservations, due to my complete lack of knowledge of it. |
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Can't really agree Frog, there are up to 200 in-play football matches every week, a few poor week days like today, but Sat and Sun are usually 50-60 matches each. I load them all onto Gruss, so if 10 kick off at the same time I can play in them all.
Large amounts of traders money comes into the market after half time, if you watch the graphs you'll see the large amounts backing and laying, how much they make I don't know (or care lol). Another obvious trading activity (which I don't mind talking about as I do other things) is getting in quick on the new current score after a goal suspension. You'd be suprised at the prices that are matched by punters looking to red/green up. |
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Fair enough Trevh.
If you're in the camp that says turning 1K into 100 K is easy peasy then that's where you are. I'll suppose I'll have to stay on the outside looking in on all this fabulous money making fiesta. I just wonder when the rest of the world is going to wake up to all these fabulous riches, just there for the taking. 10,000% pa with infinitessimal risk. Just like monopoly eh ? |
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FREE MONEY!
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I have no idea hoe genuine this guy is/was... but he claimed to make a lot in running with fast pictures.
http://elitebet.blogspot.com/2008_11_01_archive.html |
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*how
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The amazing feats of in running gambler Mr Wong are the stuff of legend amongst his fans on the Betfair forum. NOW, Mr Wong has agreed to write a blog about his exploits. Each trading day former restauranter turned Pro punter Mr Wong, will reveal his exact profit or loss here - and the races and horses which made the difference. Warts and all, reading Mr Wong's blog is the only way to get deep inside the mind of one of Britain's most talented, experienced and successful in-running punters. If you are venturing for the first time into the fascinating world of in-running betting, then why not add Mr Wong's blog to your favourites list so you check back each day and find out how his in-running results are comparing to yours? Mr Wong trades from an exchange office in Highgate. His set-up includes a fibre optic internet conection and a state-of-the-art one-click API software programme Gruss to maximise his profit. It promises to be a fascinating and insightful journey, littered with pearls of wisdom, which will offer gripping insights into the cutting edge of in-running gambling wrote a blog for a couple of months and had heavy losses most days  |
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Mr Wangker
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I used to make over 100k a year with a £2000 bank trading horse automatically. Funnily enough I was considering the 1p to 100k challenge yesterday evening. I've suggested that it is possible before and I think in the new year I will give it a go, although it will be to 40K so I can buy a Sagaris rather than 100k. It will also give me a bit more focus in life and get some new ideas working. I'm sure FRog won't believe it's possible :-)
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''Contrarian
I agree that I have no experience in IP trading'' ....yet you continue to pontificate as if you have the ultimate perspective on the whole business.....this place is full of people who believe their own experience explains the World...fools |
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I have a bot that would turn 1k into 100k in 6 months no problem. I would be a backer at 1.01 on GOM rather than a layer. Essentially, he would have to misclick to mess it up.
Now, pumpkin's challenge is a proper one, and would certainly be an interesting exercise to observe. |
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By: pumpkinslayerII When: 19 Nov 10 09:12 I used to make over 100k a year with a £2000 bank trading horse automatically
Though I don't doubt your ability, the fact you state you 'used' to make over 100k a year with an automated strategy makes me wonder why you would stop unless you started losing - in which case do you think you can start to win again? Bayes, you have a bot that can generate the amounts you claim but can anyone ever be 100% certain that what has happened in the past will continue into the future? I certainly am not, probably my conservative nature (I am sure I could have made double the amounts I have made if I had been more aggressive) but I prefer to be wary of the future and ensure I have lots of diversification (not just betting). |
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Botted strategies do tend to atrophy, but some more so than others. I could obviously never be 100% certain but the figure would be fairly close to that given its record.
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Getafix, yes I started losing and eventually switched that project off. But I have come up with many new ideas since and I'm still doing ok.
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Bayes
You say that you have a bot that would turn 1K into 100 K in 6mths no problem ? This is getting even better. We're now up to 20000% pa ROC. What do you mean by would ? You can;t be bothered to use it ? It's not fast enough? It's not remunerative enough ? Please tell. I'm fascinated to hear of something so potentially financially valuable lying fallow, so to speak. |
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Btw Bayes, I'm sure there would be some well deserving charity out there that you could donate all the guaranteed winnings to, if you could just make the effort to set up your bot. ?
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Maybe he's already using it for 2k to win 170k?
That's the logical conclusion. |
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He did say would make ?
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or more to the point he's using it to win every penny it can and lowering its starting capital to 1k means it would have to spend time building its bankroll up to working capacity.
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You don't think in a logical manner Frogster do you? I think this is why you struggle with numbers.
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