General Betting
There is currently 1 person viewing this thread.
These 538 comments are related to the topic:
100k+
100k+
sort by:
Show
per page
Replies: 538
|
By:
Frog - no not tempted for the simple reason I focus on what I'm good at which is the analytical side. I'll leave the trading to the others who are no doubt very sharp. I do lay off IR on the flat racing part of the portfolio as the prices I get are nearly always better than the standard SP.
Also, I get plenty of free time - probably do about 15 to 20 hours per week during the N.Hunt season. The tedious part is the calculations and database side of things. Plenty of ways to make your money on here and that's the beauty of it. |
|
By:
Frog, one of the reasons you will never achieve what is being claimed is attitude. The big winners on here do not have a negative mindset. They don't set limits on what can or can't be achieved. And you know what, it's amazing what you can do when you don't know what you can't do. I've been told all sorts of rubbish by people over the years about what isn't possible. You can't turn 1K into 100K in a year, you can't profit from the place pot because the takeout is too big, that trading horses won't work, that there is no equation that allows you to make a book in the place market and win the same whichever horses place and even it's not possible to make a profit at all. You just have to open your mind and believe anything is possible, and then there is a chance you will achieve it.
|
|
By:
But FAFH already makes a gauranteed profit off Betfair ?
|
|
By:
pumpkin
I suppose that's what advisers told the people who had doubts about putting money with Bernie Madoff. Rocket I do, but not at 20,000 % pa. |
|
By:
Fair enough.
How much do you make? What comm are you on? |
|
By:
Rocket
I am just trying to build up a relatively small amount of capital into a relatively large amount over a planned target period of 5-7 years. On an annualised return basis, nowhere near what the traders claim to do. It can go without any type of bet and can stay in a profit slump for very long periods. Not too sexy I'm afraid to say. But it's on target thus far after quite a long period of running. |
|
By:
Pumpkin
Reminds me of the song " Dream The Impossible Dream ". Look I will admit that others most certainly can do what I can't do. It's all just about what is reasonable to believe, not necessarily to do. |
|
By:
FAFH - much like the rest of us.
|
|
By:
Rocket
Contrary to general belief, I never ever claimed to have any sort of wonder system. I accept that some of these "traders " may be making heaps of money, who really knows. But I seriously doubt that it can be done with the marginal amounts of capital they claim to use. As to the claim that it is easy if you just apply yourself, and it cannot lose long term whatever happens, that's where they lose me. Real life is just not like that. I wish it was. |
|
By:
Lol, Frog. Let me spell it out one more time. Some strategies require very little capital. They are not particularly scalable but if they are on horse racing or football, they get to have a positive expectation many, many times a day. Hence, they make a lot of money relatively quickly. Other strategies require a lot of capital. I, like most successful people on here, use both kidns. Indeed I do on here whatever makes me the most money for the least effort. If I could make the kind of returns you speak of above on all of my net worth, or even all of my money in Betfair, then that really would be something.
|
|
By:
Bayes
Every strategy requires capital. As I have said putting a bet on for 1 second or 1 hour takes the same amount of initial capital. I accept that traders do lots of trades, but if they are all very small amounts, hence small capital required, they will make small amounts of money, in an absolute sense. |
|
By:
So how about on every horse race you lay something @ 1.22 for a grand and get it back for a grand @1.23? Capital required 230. Profit 7.70 ish. 30 races a day. 230+ profit. One year later you've made 80k with a "capital investment" of 230 quid.
Unlikely, but not that far removed from what we're talking about. |
|
By:
Capital required 220
|
|
By:
Traders are parasites.
|
|
By:
Bayes is correct.
I turned £30 into £900 with ease. Could I turn £3000 into £9000 as easily? Not a chance. It becomes clear when you actually start applying or trying it, FAFH. |
|
By:
FAFH,
I suppose what you don't appreciate is that it is quite possible for some IR traders to have a very clear edge, such that they can be very sure of coming out on top on almost every single event they bet on. |
|
By:
Contrarian
Now that is a wet dream. But if it is happening, then very good luck to them. |
|
By:
Rocket
That can be done for sure. But these chappies are saying that they can always turn 30 into 900 very easily and without any virtual risk. That's what I query. The always factor. |
|
By:
I would like to know exactly how he is turning 30 into 900, suppose he'd keep it to himself although I'd share the knowledge.
|
|
By:
FAFH,
No, it's quite true I'm afraid. If you have the right mathematical models, you can calculate, to a high degree of precision, where the markets and sub-markets of a sports event will move to, given what happens in the event. And if you have the right technological access to the betting market, you can be sure of getting the best prices at the times you need to trade. Together these two will enable you to trade profitably almost all of the time |
|
By:
^ yup
|
|
By:
By: FINE AS FROG HAIR When: 22 Nov 10 21:21 Rocket
But these chappies are saying that they can always turn 30 into 900 very easily and without any virtual risk. I don't think they are buddy |
|
By:
Of course it's possible to make astranomical returns with no risk on here but the money offered by mugs is limited which is why you can't make millions doing it.
If you know how I'd say you can start with £200 and make in excess of £10,000 in a year easy. Depends on how many markets you are operating in I guess. Others prefer a non-risk free strategy that involves lumping on shorties where there is millions in liquidity. Trouble is these tend to be the most acurately priced markets. |
|
By:
Frog, do you accept that anyone on this site pays the premium charge?
How do you suppose that comes about? |
|
By:
Contrarian
I think that what you're saying is what Bayes says, that IR prices are more likely to be mispriced ( in value terms) than pre-off ones. So if you're saying that astronomical profits can and are being obtained because of these large mispricings, then I will have to accept that as fact, as I don't have the knowledge base to dispute it.. And if so, it surely takes a lot of skill and knowledge to spot these mispricings. I would imagine very few have the mathematical models on hand to do this. I accept that all that could very well be true for a very small few. But, however, does that translate in 20,000-40,000 % pa returns on capital. You still need substantial capital to open trading positions, even momentarily, before you close them out. Lori Many people bet in ways that attract PC. Paying PC does not necessarily translate into astronomical high returns on capital. Or are you saying it does ? |
|
By:
"mispriced" is not the right term FAFH.......would have thought with HORSE RACING that it is a case that certain horses are likely to SHORTEN in price IR or go HIGHER in ODDS IR ......this can be based on knowledge of horse running style or OTHER FACTORS........
Just my opinion as I don't bet too often IR .....just applying common sense. |
|
By:
Fair enough DFC
But my point is that you need capital to open positions, even if you successfully trade out of them in due course. This is where they're all losing me currently. How do you do all this with virtually no capital to speak of ? Now I know all about the basic rule of trading, buy low sell high etc etc. But you still need a capital base of some substance to make profits of any substance. |
|
By:
Btw DFC how do you predict in any form or manner what is going to happen in a football match ?
Does anything in a football match ever pan out as predicted. Sure the eventual winner might be predictable more often than not by those with a good knowledge base, but surely even those can't predict how the actual match will play out in terms of who goes ahead first, who gets a bad penalty call against them, which team loses a player early on to a red card etc etc. The permutations are endless surely. How do you predict all that before a game starts or even during a game ? |
|
By:
Look at the Arsenal/Spurs match last weekend.
How could anybody trade that game profitably, without hindsight of course. |
|
By:
With FOOTBALL and CS LAYS ....I just "guess" what might happen based on SATS and try to envisage what motivation there is for both teams.....
It is ODDS ON betting ....and I generally stand by the LAY done. No "edge" held by me other than a fair knowledge of teams and their style of play etc etc |
|
By:
STATS even
|
|
By:
There was a hot favourite running yesterday in the 2.15 called MUD MONKEY.
It fell late in race.......but it was very very likely to shorten IR as it did have a good chance to win ....and would be perceived as having STRONG chance to win. Just consider what options are open to TRADING on such a horse..... Mud Monkey 6 10-11 t Ian Popham Miss C. Dyson - 1.11 1.79 1.73 1.11 = how low odds went IR 1.79 = BF SP 1.73 = Industry SP How much capital needed to make say £ 100 profit whether it wins or loses? |
|
By:
Look at KEMPTON results yesterday re FAVOURITEs .....5 winners out of 7 races and 1 2nd.
FFOS LAS 3 won and 1 placed out of 7 races. LUDLOW 2 winners and 1 placed out of 7 TOTAL 10 winners out of 21 races and 7 placed. Now this is just favourites....probably a high stat for favs winning..... However, the big operators will be trading in a NUMBER of horses in a race based on their knowledge or of what they see. etc etc Just apply your imagination how difficult it is for them to make £12 a race doing what they do ....and as their capital is in and out quickly, then how much capital is at risk on 1 race.....if any GENERALLY? |
|
By:
THE GREY SHARK used to post results now and then ...hardly ever lost on a race.....
Just a very clever guy....who forecast the fall of the property market well ahead of its fall , as well as highlighting how flawed the financial institutions were ...well ahead of them crumbling.... Don't know how much TGS was making .....but he undoubtedly was very good at what he did .....and I suspect rarely would he have capital at risk after the off. |
|
By:
UK housing market 2008 and beyond .........
grey shark 5,532 18,865 2 weeks ago, by chisel Check out FINANCIALS FORUM under "most replies" |
|
By:
FINE AS FROG HAIR
When: 23 Nov 10 01:00 Look at the Arsenal/Spurs match last weekend. How could anybody trade that game profitably, without hindsight of course. You seem to have the idea that trading is some kind of guessing game. I did lose money on that game, but then I am taking on a fair level of risk, with outright bets. I try to manage that by placing bets that are negatively correlated. In my early days here, I had a much simpler strategy. In 2007, I paid 4.17% of GP in commission, despite having a commission rate that wasn't even that low (I was taking advantage of 1% commission promo on asian handicaps). Throughout 2008/2009 I paid about 10% of GP in commission. With a commission rate that was still in excess of 4.5% for most of that time, that means that roughly speaking I lost £1, for every £2 that I won per market. I would have made money even if the commission rate was set at 40%! That's what trading can be like. I later came to believe that the fact that I was making profit so consistently was because I was not taking on an optimum level of risk. Nowadays I pay closer to 20% of GP in commission. 2010 has been a bit of a struggle, in that I have barely made any more than last year. This is partly due to learning to deal with the excess risk I have been taking on. It was the first time that I experienced the adverse effect of positions that are too large for the market. I expect to break the 3% commission barrier in 2011. |
|
By:
In 2002/2003 I turned somebody elses money into a six figure win on here using the Calcodds method and ended up with a tax bill. It took me one week to work that winning method out.
Last year I was experimenting with just £100 in my account when I spotted something which looked too good to be true. The first week I won £317, second week £739 etc, etc. To cut a long story short I won over £100,000 in twelve months and I am still winning at the same rate, sadly not scalable. I don't use bots I only use the information that is on the Betfair screens I don't watch the races (all bets are pre-race) I rarely have more than £3000 in my account About 64% of my trades win (Only 5 losing weeks out of 86) So anything is possible if you put your mind to it, and maybe be a bit different from the herd. |
|
By:
Btw DFC how do you predict in any form or manner what is going to happen in a football match ?
Does anything in a football match ever pan out as predicted. Sure the eventual winner might be predictable more often than not by those with a good knowledge base, but surely even those can't predict how the actual match will play out in terms of who goes ahead first, who gets a bad penalty call against them, which team loses a player early on to a red card etc etc. The permutations are endless surely. How do you predict all that before a game starts or even during a game ? Why does anyone need to predict anything  Succesful football gamblers have no opinion at all on 'what will happen' , they are just very good at estimating probablities. |
|
By:
FAFH
I had a bank of £60 and got it up to £15,000 using a very simple laying bot in 3 months InPlay Horse races June to Sept 2007. £60->£15,000 = 25,000 % in 3 months, Then aye robot came along  Not sure what that works out as an annualised return butit is up there with, and beyond some of what is being 'claimed' in this thread. Here's the chart. http://tinypic.com/view.php?pic=24bu26h&s=6 probably still got all the bets in a spead sheet somewhere but I guess that wouldn't prove it to you any more than this chart does or doesn't. |
|
By:
It is definitely possible to make over 100k p.a. sweeping daily to a bank of 2k, without exceeding 50% drawdown of the initial bank.
|