General Betting
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I built 1k into 73k in under a year but unfortunately lost most of it recently.
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Bayes.
When: 19 Nov 10 21:46 Frog, you're welcome to come here and watch me trade some time. Maybe that would convince you. Are you not worried about doing that? I would take you up on it.  I'd like to learn more about making money from other sports as well, as I only focus on football now.I guess that with-play tennis trading, it's not possible to trade profitably without pics as it is with football? |
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Investor
He wouldn't worry about doing it in front of me, because I'm a simpleton by common consensus on here. But in front of you? Ah that would be an entirely different matter. |
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simple is effective
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If you had a £500 bank FAFH how much do you think you could turnover in a month? Out of that amount a 1-2% return wouldn't seem unreasonable would it?
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I can't think of anything I've ever done in my life that has been as solitary as Betfair. I can't talk to any of my family about it or any of my friends yet I spend nearly 90 hours a week here.
It would be good to sit in a quiet corner of some pub with one or two forumites. |
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What do you mean by turnover buzzer? Do you mean like an apple turnover? I'm guessing with 500 pounds you could probably by about 250 apple turnovers at least, more if you by direct from the wholesaler.
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You're correct Avocado, i never know why you bother asking questions
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Yes, I'm always correct. Even when I'm wrong.
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.....
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the only time i've ever been wrong was when I thought I was wrong but was actually right
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I'm often wrong but i never admit it, that would be foolish and give off the wrong impression
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Sports betting on value pricing is essentially trying to forecast the future from the past.
It's not truly analytical in the sense that stock picking is. It's very much a guessing game that can, and does, frequently goew wrong from totally unpredictable things happening on the pitch, or the court, or the race course or whereve The unpredictable things will have happened in the past also though . The statistical effects of these unpredictable things will be included in the data you are using to make your prices. |
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Not too sure about that tbh tober.
Some things that occur are totally unpredictable. But it's a point I often wonder about on a even more general basis. Historical info. ( say) on football teams relates to different teams in different times. Do the stats from such past games really mean that much with respect to current games. I agree that overall league stats might bear some relation, but individual team records? Head to heads etc. |
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Investor. You're welcome to pay a visit too.
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Btw Frog, I don't do any HR trading manually. My bots do that. I trade pretty much anything else though, mostly in running.
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Where do you live Bayes?
Where do you live Rocket To The Face? |
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Full name, date of birth, address and bank details please Bayes.
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Well as the OP it's always interesting to hear of how people make money on BF.
I'm not a trader, quite simply I've spent about 5 years creating statistical models which allow me to back/lay with confidence. My stats background has meant I can analyse past trends and determine if they are likely to continue in the future. I totally focus on horse racing to make my living. I use binary logistic regression to analyse Novice Hurdles and Novice Chase favs. These datasets are my own and took a very long time to create with sample sizes in the thousands. The regression work provides me with the information in order to decide whether to back or lay the fav. I've also used basic trend analysis to complement this work. The tricky part was the staking structure. But, by using moving averages I'm able to determine the work case scenarios + a buffer zone. Thus, I have my starting pot of say a modest £800, the stakes are set according to the MA analysis and off you go. Profits/loss added to the pot and new stakes created. I can assure you that peanuts to 100k is clearly on the cards for many people who have found the edge. Nobody should rest on their laurels though! From my point of view the interesting part relates tot he mushrooming of the stakes to such an extent that you actually influence the market. As I am a passenger of the market, I'm happy to cap my stakes to levels which don't even begin to touch the market. Those who work hard and keep assessing and monitoring their work will do very well. Good luck guys! |
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Hi Midas, I can't be bothered to read all that, so can you sum up what you've just written in two words or loss, thanks
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*less
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You are possibly the most pointless poster ever to grace this forum.
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[>o]
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Class - not
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Midas
As I have said I'm not into HR. How many Novice Chase and Novice Hurdle races do you thus get to bet on over a year ? |
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FINE AS FROG HAIR
When: 19 Nov 10 22:31 Sustainable Bayes, is my point. Anyway name me , out of curiosity, any other ( legal) activity where you can possibly hope to get that sort of return, even one off. I'm sure there may be some, but I can't put my finger on any of them off the top of my head. I don't think anyone here is claiming these returns are sustainable? Technically if you are 100% leveraged, your profit represents an infinite return on investment (as you long as you do actually make a profit). Ok this isn't the case once you start factoring in other costs such as time spent, but that is the same here. Here's one example of getting that kind of return: What about the most popular artists in the world. They buy their materials at a nominal cost, then sell their work for millions. |
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Midas
Also would you expect that your regression analysis approach is transferrable readily to any and all other types of sports betting ? |
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Investor
I'm not sure I understand your statement that technically any profit when you are 100% leveraged will give your a ROC of infinity. Do you mean you start with zero capital? If so, how do you do this? |
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Investor
I don't think your artist example is really what we are all talking about on here is it ? Maybe to you it is though, but not to me. |
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An example would be buying a house with no money down and renting it out.
In 2007 I bought a house for €129K, got a mortgage for €144k. Rental income pays the mortgage + a bit on top. |
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FINE AS FROG HAIR
When: 20 Nov 10 15:42 Investor I don't think your artist example is really what we are all talking about on here is it ? Maybe to you it is though, but not to me It was just the first thing that popped into my head. I think you mentioned before something about a patent? Wouldn't that have the potential for similarly crazy returns? |
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Historical info. ( say) on football teams relates to different teams in different times.
Do the stats from such past games really mean that much with respect to current games. I agree that overall league stats might bear some relation, but individual team records? Head to heads etc Head to Heads are not important in themselves (only as part of the overall stats) It is not simply a case of the last year's results giving you a rating for the team today, as you would adjust if you felt the team right now was stronger/weaker than the one that built that sequence . So you do not expect the future to be the same in the past as you imply. |
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Tober
Yep I expected that was what you and others adopting this approach would do. Tks for the confirmation though. |
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That last sentence is confusding tbh
I mean if Aston Villa finished on 60pts from the last 38 games, you would not then just expect them to get the same from the next 38. You would decide if personnel changes had made them better or worse, and you would weight the stats so that the more recent were given more credence than the more distant ones. |
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The genius of i/r is that backers/layers do not play alike or run parallel in horse-racing......layers in essence are a desperate bunch who offer themselves no REAL VALUE but for backers with a little nous and speed of thought there is REAL VALUE to be had in most races....the maths is simple almost poker-like.
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Frog,
I generally have backs/lays which total about 300 per year. However, I also have flat bets which total about 250. So say 500 to 600 bets/lays per year. As I say, I'm not a trader and quite simply expect and get an ROI of about 35%. As for transferring this particular stats method to other sports - I would say no. Essentially, I need to be looking at a binary outcome Win/Lose in roughly equal proportions. Novice Hurdle/Chases provide me with that outcome (non-handicaps with fixed penalties). I can then establish the important factors which determine the likely outcome of the fav. As for past historical data, I totally agree with you in that you have to be very careful in what you choose to select. For example, I avoid ephemeral data/ trends such as the trainer, jockey and instead concentrate on establishing trends, relationships between the outcome and the general horse population data (weight, days last ran, distance, etc etc). I would accept the argument that an individual horse can go against these relationships, but the overall 'average' if you like provides me with a good basis and ultimately a probability form which I chose to back or lay. I would not expect this to transfer to football for reasons you have yourself outlined. |
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how much money have u made?
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Midas
Yes your returns are what I would expect ROI wise, being a non-trader. Sounds extremely professional what you have done, and deserved of success. Are you tempted at all by these " astronomical" returns claimed on here from trading, to put your foot in the water in that area ? |