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unlucky bud..villa had more chances on the break by the sounds :-(
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tennis tonight then
getting better now soon the matches will only be on in the morning :) |
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ouch new born
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Hi guys, just got in from a long night at the in-laws!!!
How everyone keeping?? |
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alright bobby
tennis is slowing down and normal service will be resumed next week. |
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need the weather to brighten up a bit and get some proper racing on..
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All the best then mate, im studying the football for this week, the African Nations is a bit of a tease for me so may be looking to lay a few in there aswell.
What you think of that other thread where Ivor is posting his comments, looks to of made some good long term profits laying other horses in the race that havent been tipped by specific Newspapers/ Racing criteria? You ever done anything like that? |
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Never saw it i'll have a look
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Who even looks at what newspaper tipsters put forward ....if you have your own opinion re each race...
Can see a reason for TRADERs doing this.......but not OPINION backers or LAYERS........nor FS nap:D |
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Oh no, i didnt mean for FS to do it, FS already has a system which is proving very efficient so far, i meant to ask if he had ever used it before (or anything similar)
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Sounds very interesting
the only time i've looked at something like that was when betfair wasn't here. You would walk into a a bookies and the RP has tables for each meeting and the tipsters on those tables would pick thier selections. I used to round robin or yankee horses that more than 10 tipsters had tipped up. You hardly ever won there was always one that got beat. so when betfair came on the scene i looked to lay these until one got beat..cause they were normally short priced favs if over 10 tipsters had tipped the same horse |
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Ive just looked at a bit of a system where i take out of the equation the horse with highes RP Rating, Topspeed and the horses that have been tiped the most by other newspapers.
Very interestingly, out of the 20 races that fit the criteria, 100% of the lays won today (lost the race). I know that in a few of the races the horse was priced at close to 20-28 on BF but i believe that most of the others were under 12.0 here. Will be looking alot more into this from tomorrow but looks very interesting so far. The reasons that are making me think this is: 1- I withdraw the horses with highest RP and Topspeed 2- I withdraw specific horses that have been tipped by more than 1 tipster or even horses that have only been tipped once but there is still a horse availabe at around the same odds that has not been tipped. I suppose that automatically, in say a 12 horse race, tipsters/ rp ratings/ topspeed must predict a certain amount of correct tips, so already a high percentage is in your favour- after all, if you can eliminate approx 4 horses straight away you will still probably have 2/3 available to make your selection from?? Sorry to take up most of your thread with this comment but wanted to express my opinion on this and i value whatever your reply is! |
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Better be careful with this way of finding possible horses to lay.
Few tipsters tip high odds winners....and many high odds winners do not have high TS and RP rating. There are reasons why such horses win DD......and if I too you I would have to send you a ticket for a DUNDEE UTD game .....end of the world as we know it!!!!!! |
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DFC- im not sure if ive confused things here a bit, most tipsters tip horses that are favourites with low odds or are in the top 4 favourite bracket of that particular race.
I then eliminate them from my lay bet, along with any horse with the highest RPR or TPSPD. This obviously usually eliminates 3/4 from the top 4 favourites, the other one i then pick as my lay bet. As i said, im not entirely sure of the BF SP for the horses in question but i will calcualte that tomorrow. Its just an idea to be honest, but as i said above, using these tips and ability ratings can obviously decrease the chances of selecting a winner or a possible winner which obviously gives me a slightly better chance. After all, i wonder how many of Footsoldiers Lay bets that went on to win the race were tipped elsewhere? or had the hights RPR or the highest Topspeed? Just trying to find a criteria for the perfect laying system!!! |
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Sorry DFC, Have totally misread what you have said!
Yes, you are right, obviosuly there is a large % of high odds horses that win, but remember i am picking the lowest odds horse that fits into the criteria, as i have stated, out of the 20 races today, all 20 lay bets won. Already that is a fairly high achievement, will see how it goes tomorrow though, obviously if i have 3 losers priced at odds of over 10 or whatever then the system is not briliant! Lets see what tomorrow brings! |
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All the days bfsps (for every horse that had money on at bfsp) can be accessed form the sp page. (follow the home page link...
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Cheers m5, cant access todays though, think i have to wait til 2moz so will have to wait a few hours more!!
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http://www.betfairpromo.com/betfairsp/TodaysSps.htm
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AVONTUUR......was this one that could have been a possible lay for the way you have suggested selecting a lay DD?
Mostly favs and short odds horses won today....only AVONTUUR and MONEY LINE were what I call "reasonable" odds. Pretty sure there are others doing something similar on here DD re selecting lays.........it should help someone who knows little about horse racing....but lacks sufficient edge IMO to AVOID THOSE HIGH ODDS WINNERS/PLACES. Can't say you are not trying the best you can to find a way to improve your betting on horses DD!!!!!!! All you have to do is note what FS and cappo and certain others on here suggest as lays........and avoid laying what certain backers on here suggest as backs ( especially cool eddy, REDUNDANT PUNTER, and a few others , including myself ]:) ) |
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is the 4 tipsters
spotlight,rp ratings,post data and top speed ?? |
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and are they normally 3rd favs ???
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would make it simple if it was those 4
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Just looking at lowest bfsp lay where horse does not appear on the tips page at all. Highest sp so far 28.9 10 losers so far.......not finished yet
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left out a couple of races where there were very small fields
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sud be easy enough to work out
if you could just get an old RP.. He's posted his selections and every tipster is in the post.. |
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wha's the lowest..
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sp
if a horse dosen't appear at all that sounds a very logical way to go |
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two 5.00 shots .......both lost
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basically the lowest priced horse that isn't picked by any of the tipsters
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just doing wolves now
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yup
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4 shouldn't matter to be honest
all is a better guide and keeps things simple.. |
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and do you know what
Maria says she done everyday apart from a sunday, why because you canne get the racing post on a sunday :) |
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maria is going against the tipsters in the post lol
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could be...
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Ok here's the results.......
17 lays, 17 losers @150 a pop =2431 |
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16:00 Grand Fleet 2.200
Fathsta 2.923 Spice Trade 11.500 Elusive Lady 13.500 Royal Applord 18.487 you may not have wanted royal applord in a 5 runner so make that 16 |
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superb
prices ?? |
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from 4 to 28
3 over 20 and a mix of the rest quite a few under 12 |
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highest price ???
lowest price ?? i'm sure if you put a filter in like number of runners in a race has to be 9 and above.. |