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FS must be working nights.
Both Turkish games came in. Might throw it all on Fenerbahce later. |
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No new born, just keeping his seat warm
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1 more lay at Ling, must get back to work.
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Good man.
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no lay in the 1.45 for me
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Don't like the look of Fenerbahce at all. Must stay well clear off.
Yeah, back to work and I'll take another look at the footie later. GL |
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afternoon
i'm fooked lads just up, late night last night collecting stats on tennis |
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afternoon fs, hope you're well
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knackered 7 i got ta ma bed
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how u been doing ??
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looks as if you've had a couple of cheap jobs :)
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Yes 3.2 lay-first fence faller
2.9 place lay-never put in the race pity that's not always the case |
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ONLY 10 PLAYERS IN MEN AND 10 WOMEN IN THE FIRST ROUND WHO WON THE FIRST SET WENT ON TO LOSE THE MATCH OUT OF 128 MATCHES in 2008
I expected that trend to continue last night because in 2007 there was only 4 players in the men and 4 players in the women who won the first set went on to lose the match out of 64 matches and it did only 3 players last night in the mens and 3 players in the women lost the match after winning the first set out of 32 matches |
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The amazing thing about all this and it's brilliant is that if you had just blindly backed players after they had won the first set in the women's even though 67/80 went onto win the match, you would be well down
The mens are slightly different but you would still have only of broke even or just have scraped a profit, although 67/80 went onto win the match the scary thing is they are both exactly the same 67/80, the reason there is a diference between men and women in profit and loss is because one is a best of 5 format and one a best of 3. But it's unbelieveable with a return of 67/80 you won't win in leaps and bounds. This is because after the first the winner of the first set is way way way under priced and over backed by punters. |
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Schiavone 1.04 40p
Schnyder 1.06 -10.00 Mauresmo 1.03 30p Azarenka 1.02 20p Razzano 1.17 1.70 Vesnina 1.15 1.50 Sugiyama 1.35 3.50 Vaidisova 1.04 40p Jankovic 1.02 20p S Williams 1.01 10p Rezai 1.53 - 10.00 Garrigues 1.8 -10.00 Sharapova 1.1 1.00 Peer 1.08 80p at 10 pounds stakes in the womens if you had backed them you would have lost a packet, however even thouth 3/16 went onto lose, if you had layed every women after the first set you would have cleaned up |
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the above is the prices players were after the first set
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prices on women are ridiculous after 1 set because it's best of 3
and can be taken of advantage of :) |
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well done on the lays buzz
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Boomtown
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Afternoon Footsoldiers, how's tricks m8...
And I think you'll find that Rezai won ;) |
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Schiavone 1.04 40p
Schnyder 1.06 -10.00 Mauresmo 1.03 30p Azarenka 1.02 20p Razzano 1.17 1.70 Vesnina 1.15 1.50 Sugiyama 1.35 3.50 Vaidisova 1.04 40p Jankovic 1.02 20p S Williams 1.01 10p Rezai 1.53 5.30 Garrigues 1.8 -10.00 Sharapova 1.1 1.00 Peer 1.08 80p Su wei Hsiieh 1.6 6.00 sorry rezai won only 2 players lost after winnig the first set lol |
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yeah i seen that jimny
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knackered mate that took some looking after last night..
guessed at su wei's price |
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No problem m8, just though that like me you might be only half awake...Going to need to buy some stronger coffee I think :)
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cheers fs, just been on the palermo match for a few minutes. Well done with boomtown
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Koubek 1.52 5.20
Nieminen 1.05 50p Tsonga 1.07 70p Sela 2.06 - 10.00 Garcia Lopez 1.37 3.70 Capdeville 2.8 - 10.00 Gicquel 2.46 14.60 Seppi 2.4 -10.00 Rafa 1.01 10p Fish 1.39 3.90 Simon 1.17 1.70 Andreev 1.24 2.40 Davydenko ?? 1.03 30p Roddick ?? 1.02 20p Gasquet ?? 1.08 80p Kholscrieber ?? 1.05 50p missed the last 4 it was 7 o'clock and needed my bed even so not much between the men either considering the stats :^0 :^0 :^0 imagine the mens outwith the slams when the tournies are the same format as the womens best of 3 Liscence to print money |
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the mens the same so much of a bias over 80% of matches in all tournaments have a bias towards players who win the first set win the match and u struggle to make a profit
prices of players winning the first set are way way way underpriced, it's bodering on lunacy.. 2 filters Bobs yer uncle.. Adelaide last year 32 matches only 6 matches had players losing after winning the first set and u can hardly make a profit from backing em after the first set. the list goes on and on.. pure gold dust.. Footsoldiers 16 Jan 05:52 chennai 3 matches out of 30 matches |
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I'm 100% convinced that in over 90% of tournies outwith the slams which is only 4 tournies, if you just blindly lay players after they go a set up ( filter the top 5 out of both mens and womens) you would be well up over a best of 3 format.
reason.. players who win the first set in both mens and womens are stupidly and crazily overbacked.... |
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Does that mean your idea of backing the 1st set winner has gone out the window... ( I feel a case of the "I told you so" coming on the tennis forum soon )
Blindly backing or laying favs/1st set winners does not and cannot work...You don't need to be Einstein to work that one out...Even us guessers have that one rumbled m8 :) |
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I'm not going to bother doing it again tonight cause I've seen enough, what i will do now is run this through 4 years of inrunning tennis data, omit the slams and top 5 players in both men and women and see what the results say.
And slams are favourites bias as well always have been, in the tournies outwith the slams and the masters series and tier 1's. your going to get an even higher proportion of low lays beat :) |
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jimny
nobody told me anything nobody knew if it would work or not and we needed prices to find out if laying and backing was the way to go until we got prices you were in that conversastion for an hr yesterday, so don't try and score points on the back of my hard work.. we were all waiting with baited breath and now i've seen and studued the results It is clearly shown that laying on both is the way to go so this i told you so is nonsense no one knew |
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once 4 years in running stats is run through with a couple of FILTERS jimny
yes filters this will work 100% |
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Does that mean your idea of backing the 1st set winner has gone out the window... ( I feel a case of the "I told you so" coming on the tennis forum soon )
Blindly backing or laying favs/1st set winners does not and cannot work...You don't need to be Einstein to work that one out...Even us guessers have that one rumbled m8 yet on a slam which is favourite win bias like every slam is it has worked perfectly jimy, you have to be crazy to think it won't work on tournies outwith the slams which arent heavily heavily littered with fav wins... u need to explain this broad statement mate....because it dosen't make sense ??????? |
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basically
Blindly laying favs/1st set winners does not and cannot work it has worked here on over 82 matches so far very well u would be quids in probaly made over 40% return..... in 3 days over a best of 3 format and this is on a tournament that is renound for favs winning matches. the results from fracsoft will prove once you concentrate on all the other tournies were favs win less than most and because players prices are sub 1.1 after winning a set you'll be quids in. |
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AFTERNOON ALL !
have i missed anything ? |
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just the one today FS ?
Take it was beaten ? |
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Interesting stuff on the tennis there mate! Never really touch the sport as I don't really have enough knowledge of it, but that sounds interesting!
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mugs and money buyers are overbacking players after they go a set up, this in turn means you can and will profit from laying these ridiculous prices over time.
if before the oz open somebody had said right i'm laying every player who wins the first set over a best of 3 format i wud of said yer mental why would you do that in a tourny when favs win over 95% of the time, he wud now come back and say look i'm over 40% up after 3 days in a tourney when favs win over 95% of the time I wud then say to him, well fook me what is that going to produce in tournies when favs don't win over 95% of the time with filters in a best of 3 format he wud then say fill yer boots because punters are piling into players who win the first set.. And that makes perfect sense to me because it's like football when punters pile into teams who score the first goal.... |
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looks like your talking about 'value' fs ;)
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alright bradders
i've got enough evidence to warrent a test through 4 years of data anyways.. rihgt back to the racing.. |