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hi crescit,cheers,
well ive been looking at various things regarding what id do on my own devices, if i went with all my lays every day, they would show a profit, they have a really nice strike rate, so smallish but regular could be good, when there is a winner amongst them, they have always been just the one, which would show a profit , example yesterday i had one winner but quite short price, however today, out of 9 lays, 2 actaully won, which is the first time thats happened, an 11/1 and 10/1, so one the days basis id be down, but a clean sweep in a day which i know you can say im making it up, but it happens quite a lot, would wipe out todays losses,, on the other hand, if i went with one lay a day, that is the first of the 2 i put up here, that would have produced just one winner @7.4 out of 22 days, so that would be profitable too, its hard to know exactly which way to go, but not a bad situation to be in, :) |
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cheers 200,
yeah 1pt = 1, each lay 20% of 5000 starting bank, aim is to get to 10, 000 then use a liability of 2000 (20%) and so on, stopping when, if get to 40 000. how is it you score your points/profit ? would like to work out what profit i'd have if using your staking plan instead of my own. p.s i see alot of your lays are over the jumps and you try to avoid the a.w a bit, will you be able to keep this going when the flat season arrives?, i hope so cause if mine blows up i might just follow yours :^0 |
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Thanks 200, i too was wondering whether you're a jumps or a flat man?
But results so far are good, so if you're fed up with the paper trading I''ll fund a cash experiment if you like. I've not gone through this whole thread and don't want to step on anyone else toes but if you're interested post an email address & I'll drop you a line tomorrow. I'm sure we can work out something mutually beneficial & start next week if you want.. cheers |
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jamesd,
On the challenge purpose, they are level stakes @ 5pts each, but a point would be 100 so it is actually + 97.5 pts a point is usually 1% of your bank, so one point for you would be 50 quid, so each lay would be 250 quid, (5pts) so if your "winner" was 10.0, you would have a profit of 2050 ( after 4 % comm) sorry i didnt luk to see what odds your winner was, so based it on 10.. ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- crescit, the challenge was set up for Footsoldiers to see if i could show a profit after a month. he is due to get in touch with me next weekend, that is the last i heard , about a fortnight ago.. but i have left my addy here earlier, so u are more than welcome to mail me, g g j o @ hotm ail . co. uk i wouldnt mind hearing what you have to say as i dont know where i stand to be honest, cheers :) |
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ok 200, thanks for that mate. I'll drop you a line tomorrow
cheers |
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think ive got you 200,
had 18/19 so 18 x 5pts =90 pts - 1 winner, COMPETITOR 5.5 = -22.5pts =+67.5 pts so far i think 67.5 x 50 =3375 compared to my 1571 thats a fair difference using your staking plan 200, can you check this for me please whenever youve got the time to see if ive added up correctly as thats over 100% more profit using your system? thanks |
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yeah thats just about it jamesd,
18x 250 = 4320 after 4% comm 1 winner @ 5.5 = 1125 so profit = 3195 after 4% comm ( near as damn it to yours) --------------------------------------------------------- so yes you would be very nicely in profit, however you do need to maintain a very good strike rate, but it can cushion winners, if you have great confidence that your "winers" will be reasonably few and far between, then you will be ok. :) |
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cheers 200,
will continue to use my staking plan just now but will keep a copy of p+l using your staking plan written down seperately as well, then see the results in a week or two. off to bed now gl tomorrow! :-) |
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You guys should be using real money, it's a whole new ball game when you hit the 'place bet' and give yourself a 4 figure liability on a lay. It's easy to talk the talk. Sorry don't want to be negative just realistic. :) It's not so easy when it's real even if it should be in theory.
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Another point is can you get that amount matched? Picking say a 9.2 lay is one thing, but getting 500 quid matched at that price is another. That's another reason why it's best not to paper trade?
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morning trev,
you are talking to me as though ive never put a bet on before?? ive been on here since 2002 and ive had plenty of real bets, believe me, and i have had liabilities running into 4 figures and lost too, to which i can swear on my own my little girls life, something i can assure you id never ever do unless i was telling the truth !! but i have been very sporadic in the past, but i think ive mentioned very early on somewhere on this thread or the one i had for a short while, my usage of betfair has always been a case of getting a nice few quid and withdrawing the money and spending it.. or if it didnt go well, depositing more and trying to get chase a bit, typical mug punter really.. ive never tried to to build banks long term or anything like that, ive always worked, i enjoyed my best times early on laying, but for some reason would mainly try and back and lay off, trading, but ultimately am down doing this,. So i have been working in recent months on the one laying, but on a long term basis and try as best i can to get it as good as i can.. i dont know how many times ive mentioned im brassic, hence not putting any money down, but you still seem to insist i should be putting real money down, its like im banging my head against a brick wall!! Im not paper trading, im doing a challenge for somebody who wants to know if i can show profit after 30 days, to try and minimise the possibilty that my 49/50 or whatever it was i did on my other thread was no fluke.. unfortunately it has been exposed as a fluke because ive got to 45 and suffered 3 winners already, but it is in profit, which is the main thing!! Im only doing the 500 a lay example because that was the initial figure mentioned, but these are revised figures on 5 a lay, the money figure isnt important, its the points tally that im interested in 42/45 93.3% + 19.5 pts (10.5,7.6,7.4 = -22.5 pts) Current average lay odds 8.61 Paper profit = + 93.60 ( after 4% comm) based on 5 pts per lay longest losing bet sequence 1, longest winning sequence 26 ______________________________________________________ More importantly, im finishing the challenge early, ive got nothing more to prove to anyone, this is my last ever post, if Footsoldiers wants to contact me, then again my addy is g g j o @ hotmai l .co.uk Thanks everyone who have gave me encouragement over the last month or so, good luck in the future, hope you all enjoy a prosperous year, take care, :) |
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200, shame your not going to post anymore hope you reconsider. i think any recent comments were meant as encouragement, not digs.
hope they have not put you off? be nice to see you finish, you have tons of support. up to you though, hope it ends on target and best of luck with footsoldiers. regards ewest1ham |
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All the best 200 been a pleasure reading your comments and having your selections :D
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cheers you two,
up until end of jan i never used to use the forums anyway and to be honest imnot over keen them, GB isnt too bad but there are so many idiots its hard to believe, i will have no real purpose to use the forums so was going to stop after the challenge anyway, i cant see the point or purpose of those who boast their winnings, thru P&L pasting, or those who mock others who may have lost or who are trying to do something constructive, There is nobody more frustrated at not having money on my selections than me, believe me, if i had money in my account end of JAN none on here would have even heard of me, i would be quietly doing my thing, its been a long month i can tell you, so i just thought if it really annoys people that much i am not playing with money, then im happy to end it, hoping ive done enough, but on the other hand, im going into my final week, i should just let it run its course, :) |
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LOL chill 200, you're far too touchy, just trying to make constructive comments, I won't say anymore don't worry! You don't need to change your 500 paper stakes to 5 quid stakes, that's just being silly. The only reason I can see you would want to quit now is to get out before a big loss tips the tables, may as well prove me wrong now you've come this far? :) GL either way.
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200, I think you should reconsider withdrawing early. The arrangement with FS was for 1 month and I doubt that he will be impressed by you pulling out early because some people suggest that you should be putting money down. If he is going to fund your bets he needs to be sure that you will not bail out if things are not going well, so come on and put up your lays till the end of the month. Then see what happens!
Good Luck whatever you decide to do. |
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200 again i do believe that the intent was genine encouragement.
whether you use paper/money is not relevant in my opinion, i assumed that it was a proof of method. post your lays no after timeing, over a set period of time etc. mainly for yourself and footsoldiers benfit, in full public view. not about money at all. shame we will be deprived of the finish, hope you reconsider. been a mainly convivial thread. hope you succeed, i have every faith in you. regards ewest1ham. |
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200 are you throwing the teddy out,dont let it get to you son it will be good practise for handling the pressure that playing with real money brings
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hey guys,
lol, trev i will finish , i havnt taken what u said that personally, i did wonder if you thought i mite want to protect my position, lol, ive enjoyed doing it, i know i havnt made any dough but that wasnt the intention, it was for one purpose, i have proved i can take it when things arent going well, i was in negative points at one stage and knew it would take something like 5 days just to get back even, thanks for comments anyway, will have my next 2 up laters, cheers :) |
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come on 200-you have a lot of mates here who are rooting for you:D
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:D
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Hello 200,
I've been following this thread for some time and have thoroughly enjoyed reading your sensible posts, and looking out for your selections. I fully applaud you on your excellent results and do hope you carry on until the end of the challenge. I feel you may be slightly over reacting to the previous posts, they were more notes of caution than full on criticisms. Good luck which ever way you decide |
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thats the spirit 200!
5 lays today 1.50 new antonius ceasar 10 3.25 chepstow stop the show 12 3.55 chepstow georges boy 8.2 2.05 kempton pigeon island 8 3.15 kempton burntoakboy 9.2 |
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Glad to see you are going to carry on mate.
I can imagine your frustration seeing it doing so well and you've not YET profited. FS is one of the good guys around here - as are most people who've posted on this thread - I'm sure he'll be in touch with you to follow-up on what you've done. Keep it up fella :-) |
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200 - Keep up the good work.
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200 - Fully endorse Powers above posting.
Thoroughly enjoyed following your mission ( totally immaterial you're paper trading as opposed to the folding stuff ) and pleased you are continuing to its conclusion! Good luck for the coming week ... and hope you will still continue posting after that ! It is welcome to come across your site as opposed to the majority of other banal/puerile/idiotic worthless other so called "system" posters. Again,good luck! |
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lads im gonna do a little LAYING experiment today
a 2 lay in every race (not ireland) i will post before the race with the price just a bit of fun so dont** me off :D |
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1.50 newcastle the whisperer lay @ 5.9
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Mr 200 not often one gets the chance to post something positive on this forum. It,s mostkly made up of wannabees, neverwillbes, mean minded liars and Walter Mitty liars...... and then there's the psychopaths and then there's Ivor and Warwick Hunt and his miniature clique of fawning morons. So it's a real relief to find someone who seems up front and NORMAL. Good luck with the rest of the month and I hope Footsoldiers (who also seems to be up front and normal) works something out with you. Mreanwhile, here's the only tip I've ever given on the forum: TAKE NO NOTICE OF THE IDIOTS
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2.05 Sand - Stellino is a lay, too inexperienced against these. Cheap as well :)
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2.00 ling red linnet waiting for price
2.05 kempton numide 2.15 chep pterodactyl 2.25 newc idarah 2.35 ling red wine prices to come |
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THIS THREAD IS ACTUALLY NOT BAD AT ALL, HARDLY ANY IDIOTS ON HERE, YOU SHOULD SEE THE FOOTBALL FORUM!!
ANYWAY HERE IS A LITTLE TIP FOR THE GOODGUYS, FOURTEL IN THE 7.50 AT WOLVERHAMPTON IS 2.74 TO BACK AT THE MOMENT, THIS HORSE IS FANCIED TO WIN AND WILL GO OFF AROUND 2'S SO YOU CAN EITHER LET IT RIDE OR TRADE OUT WELL BEFORE THE OFF. THE HORSE IS OWNED BY MICHEAL OWEN AND WILL HAVE ALOT OF FOOTBALLERS BACKING IT FOR BIG BRINGING THE PRICE RIGHT DOWN. sorry for shouting gl jd |
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1.50 New IRISH WOLF 9.4
2.25 New PERCUSSIONIST 11.5 many thanks for comments guys, might be a third lay later which will keep me on track then to finish friday, good luck :) |
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agree with you about the footy forum mr dean. i posted once and had to run for my life back to the "sanity" of horse racing. I agree this thread is largely virus free. My remark above was meant to point to the forums in general
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layed the whisperer @ 5.0
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good luck lads and lasses and any gayers :D
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Irish Wolf given up.
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ekkblaco off to a flier :^0
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shi te start lol
red linnet laid at 2.5 |
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:(
laid irish wolf as well |