General Betting
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Lack of Soccer draws this season - time to bet?
Lack of Soccer draws this season - time to bet?
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Replies: 323
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Ken,
If you think its a wind-up then fair enough, thats up to you. However, do you think this purely because the level of stakes that are claimed to be involved or other reasons? |
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JPG, to be honest, I haven't read the whole thread, being away from my computer for about 3 days in the middle of it. I think it's a wind up because, IMO, no one bets to that level on a whim, or if he IS betting on these draws, he is betting to small stakes. Either way, it doesn't seem genuine but I could be wrong. I really don't care.
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Magician will you look into pre suspension hoovering on a horse at lingfield today. Flawed Genuis, 1.30 race. 2.16 out to 4 on place mkt just b4 suspend. Horse stays in stalls.
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Stringer.
I have had a word to betfair already - and they are investigating it very seriously. I will be checking my data tomorrow morning, and give you some feedback. this horse has a history of this apparently. which on one hand gives reason for this but on the other hand raises further suspicion. anyway I am sure betfair will be entirely thorough, and ill keep on them - to make sure |
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The horse has done it the 2 times previously but the course players definitely got in before the suspension. Thanks.
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fwiw, i don't for one second think magician was bull$hitting here, the amounts involved were not enormous sums for him, as far as i am aware
my criticism is that he opened with some interesting questions, then appeared to show no desire to delve deeper and see if he could approach some useful, concrete findings - the proposed challenge he set up did not sound illuminating or insightful and the results aren't particularly so either if there was some data mining that was going on behind the scenes to give a strong suggestion that these were indeed good bets he was having, then that's a different matter - otherwise it just looks like someone blindly betting at the roulette wheel against a streak of weird numbers |
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"Stringer" Bell 25 Nov 20:57 The horse has done it the 2 times previously but the course players definitely got in before the suspension. Thanks. Betfair have voided the bets - if you where a backer against the people putting in extremely lays - I understand you will get you money back as the bets have been VOID a great move by betfair. |
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you should have recieved email - and void refund now...
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The Magician isnt that against the rules?
If a market is scheduled to be turned in-play but Betfair does not suspend the market at the time of the 'off' (so unmatched bets are not cancelled at that time), but the market is intentionally turned in-play at a later time during the event, all bets matched after the time of the 'off' will stand. I guess you mean betfair are refunding out of their own pocket, rather than voiding those bets? |
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Hazel
Betfair are voiding I am well aware of the above rule - but IMO that rule is in breech of (or at least not compatatble with) the law. that rule will be tested one day - and found untenable - perhaps that is partially betfair seem to contradict it on this occasion. But remember have another far reach rule about interity of the markets and thie product - and I would assume it is this rule that the have allowe dto overide the above rule. I will dig the exact rule out for you tomorrow, but IMO befiar should be congratulated for this move. itis a clear aditional step in favour of the casual punter. |
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the magician have you and zilzal had your meeting with bha rep yet ?
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next week 3rd dec
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The Magician, have you selected your horse for Scoop 6 yet? gl by the way
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no not yet
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draws again today?
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I think the challenge was completed last week , will just have to settle for the 200kish scoop bonus.Heck of a run.
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http://www.racingpost.com/news/horse-racing/denman-scoop6-player-wins-again-to-take-haul-to-1-8-million/658209/standard/
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4/7 draws today.
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a little disapointing, the end of ( or maybe not ) of this challange.
I missed all todays games - was at the races. dont knwo what price but assume 4 winners at 5/2 = +50 minimum 3 losers -15, so plus 35 today so now on missed draws I am something like 60K worse off..... and on the challange I am plus 80K real +80 theory +140 I guess. time to call it a day |
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FYI
premier league prices @ 2pm today Blackburn v Stoke h 1.98 a 4.7 d 3.45 Fulham v Bolton 1.86 5.3 3.6 Man City v Hull 1.32 12.5 5.9 Portsmouth v Man Utd 10 1.39 5.2 West Ham v Burnley 1.83 5.1 3.75 Wigan v Sunderland 2.6 3 3.45 Villa v Tottenham 2.6 2.98 3.5 |
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slightly depressing new....
Blackburn v Stoke 3.45 winner (cost 12250) Fulham v Bolton 3.6 winner (cost 13000) Man City v Hul l5.9 winner (cost 24500) Portsmouth v Man Utd loser (saved 5000) West Ham v Burnley loser (saved 5000) Wigan v Sunderland loser (saved 5000) Villa v Tottenham 3.5 winner (cost 12500) opportunity cost 47250 (minus comission) |
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PS thanks for the prices mauirice
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np
man city a particularly juicy price |
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The Magician (100) 28 Nov 22:46 slightly depressing new.... opportunity cost 47250 (minus comission) I'm sure the £1.8M from the scoop 6 will lessen the blow ;) well done btw |
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still hurts - as technically I have not completed this challange
I ahve only done so in theory |
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draw crazy
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big, fat odds on them today as well
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so annoying.....
did not play today - was tied up with the scoop and a birthday party tonight. 3 times I have spend 2K doing 10 teams all ways with ladbrokes... that would have returend 200K today I guess anyway..... cant complain this challange would be 170-200k by now |
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Today would have been very profitable indeed!
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did a quick calc.... maybe did not miss 200K perhaps more like 125-150k
less agrivating... 7/9 would have been +75K or more on 5K stakes also. wish I did not finsih this challange so early LOL |
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6/9
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respect to the magician.
a true proffesional. |
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no but they might do if there was no valid reason for the lack of draws but the price on draws increased to reflect the early season scenario
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season nearly over....
did draws reach levels of past seasons? |
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DRAW 2009-10 (93) 25.41%
DRAW 2008-09 (97) 25.53 % DRAW 2007-08 (100) 26.32 % DRAW 2006-07 (98) 25.79 % DRAW 2005-06 (77) 20.26 % |
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Thanks the one that got away....
I am too scared to look what I might have won if I carried this chanllange on to the end of the season.... |
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A good thread from days of old!
£80,000 profit on backing the draw £1,800,000 on scoop Potential to win about another £350,000 on the draws 2009/10 - A very good year for the magic man!  |
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Crikey, this thread brings back memories.
96 Draws in total by the end of that season... looks like Viva owes me 13pts. Making some assumptions from his betting habits posted on this forum, I reckon he would have staked £100 per draw/point on that spread bet..... meaning he owes me £1300!!! Ill accept a grand Viva :) |
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This was a good thread at the time....time has flown !! I seem to remember someone else running a similar thread at the time, though the poster only ran it for a few weeks and was betting in multiples.
A lot of punters dont like backing draws, but I happen to have a happy knack of finding them on a regular basis. Interesting that Magician simply backed on what you may call a " Monte Carlo " hunch.... |
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I've just dug this thread up and reread it from start to finish
The numbers of truly great gambling minds on this thread, discussing the proposition before it is implemented and as it takes off and runs it's course. staggering. So many insights, some opposing the proposition, some for. all of them open, honest, from their own perspective and experience. (apart from the chaff of course) The General betting forum was the best place on the planet, the best place that has ever existed to spectate and learn how to win at gambling in the long term. It was already on the wane when this thread started. Well worth reading from the start, trying to spot the great minds posts, analysing what they are saying. pausing to consider what is being said. Hint: The grandmasters start discussing each others posts, so If you spot one GM discussing someone else's point, chances are good that the GM respects the poster, probably because he is also a GM. This thread, unknown to me at the time, would put me on the path to going up a few levels in understanding and £. |