also tried to 500 on the 5 way multiple at 800/1 but my account is mot permissioned for multiples.

tried to have it on lads - and my internet went down

will come in now for sure

I feel for you, Magician.

Imagine the five games being all square at 4.45pm and praying for a goal which will leave you approx. 20 grand worse off.

He's winding you up. :)

bolton spurs 2-2. thread over.

MANCHESTER GAME
The Draw 6.4 £2,010.57 £10,857.08
Ref: Bet matched:

6.6 £669.64 £3,749.98
Ref: Bet matched:

7.4 £1,830.36 £11,714.30
Ref: Bet matched:

7.6 £489.43 £3,230.24

AVERAGE
The Draw 6.91 £5,000.00 £29,551.60

6.8 now , why would you ask for 6.4 and was there little money about when you got 7.6/4 ?

pst, frames. irony.

congratulations magician

Contrarian

I have followed your posts for years, and especially in the early days you where one of the most insightful posters on here. How sad those days are gone and this forum is a shadow of its former self.

These bets are 100% true the only reason I will not see out this project is I forget a game or two is on and miss betting them. Because as stated I dont really follow football well certainly not closely.

As stated the bigger price is only part of the reason for this project the lack of draws to date enticed me also ( I know a mathematician like you will laugh at that) as I do with my math hat on. But there is scope for the behavioural ability to stick to a staking plan when prior results commit you too it. And there is potentially some value in that.

Which comes to my staking plan. It is a staking plan just not a normal one.

It is higher volatility than betting to set return ( especially in this price range) and as such the sharpe changes but I dont get obsessed with sharpe ratios and volatility of stratergies I get obsessed with maximising returns.

And to be honest volatility creates interest and interest creates study and study creates money... so as always I view volatility of returns in the long run a good thing.

Especially if you take the long term view.

how can u be 5k down on a match that hasn't kicked off yet.

Magician,

Staking plans (within reason) are quite a personal preference in my view. There are no "right" ways but there are wrong ways!

You mention you're interested in maximising returns and are quite happy to tolerate the swings from one result to the next, which is fair enough.

However, that staking approach/belief is firmly in line with the Kelly Criterion. With that in mind and assuming you were getting about 4 ticks above what you "should" be getting, the suggested amounts for a full Kelly stake at these prices would be roughly:

3.6 - 2.3%
3.8 - 1.9%
4.5 - 2.0%
6.0 - 1.1%
9.0 - 1.2%

Now, most EPL matches will have their draw price fall into this range (a few will fall out of it I appreciate but given the 1-2% range the suggested stake is, this is useful enough guide.)

Now, assuming you are getting 4 ticks better and that your bank for this venture is 150K, it would appear you are overstaking by about 2k-3.5k per bet. This isnt too difficult to rectify with some tweaking, especially as you'll be betting on a relatively tight price range (percentage of probability wise) but might be food for thought.

Regardless, good luck with it.

1-1 draws are due.

on all 4 games today....

20K bet

what prices did you get today, Magician

"Viva La Draw"

8 Draws so far, 305 matches remaining.

Viva sold @ 83.0

New quote: 85.5 :)

viva el presidente! 04 Oct 19:01

I am trembling.

:)

JPG

excellent post - and i have considered most all you poitns prior but good to see them again

but a few points

a) my bank is not 150K, that is just the point I decided to stop - and my stakes are not growing with bank - they are just flat.

Kelly is good but there are issues especially on horse racing. the biiger the price the more kelly bets but there is a point in horses racing that if the price is bigger - you should not bet or even lay the selection.

I dont know enough about Premier league to know if that holds - but for horses it does.

Aren't you also perhaps costing yourself a tick or two by this thread. The draw layers will know 5k is coming in, so keep their prices a bit lower perhaps?

The Magician (6) 04 Oct 21:13

JPG

excellent post - and i have considered most all you poitns prior but good to see them again

but a few points

a) my bank is not 150K, that is just the point I decided to stop - and my stakes are not growing with bank - they are just flat.

Kelly is good but there are issues especially on horse racing. the biiger the price the more kelly bets but there is a point in horses racing that if the price is bigger - you should not bet or even lay the selection.

I dont know enough about Premier league to know if that holds - but for horses it does.

------------
The Magician (6) 04 Oct 21:16

also noted today - that I took less than high street prices on some draws - prior to comission.

find it hard to get the 5K matched to be honest, virtually every game I end up tkaing 2-3-4 even 6 points below my first match entry point to get the 5K

does this indicate the markets are really thin? and most the matched vloume is churn?

Magician,

Just a few points/answers/questions here....

Regarding the aspect of getting on with 5k on a draw, I'd guess its a combination of the size of stake on some markets, the fact that you arent micro-managing your staking/betting here which is coupled to the possibility of drip-feeding the stake in.

Your point about the churn in these 1X2 markets holds some merit but it wont be purely because of the stake size. The Chelsea/Liverpool match today for example, Liverpool were relatively friendless in the market, Chelsea were supported but by no way was it a plunge, and the book was balanced by genuine support for the draw. I doubt a 5k bet on the draw in this case was the cause for all this, especially as there was about 20k available at each tick size. Also, the bookies quotes on a draw are closer to their "perceived real probabilities" then with the home & away wins due to less demand (in most cases) from their typical customers towards the draw.

Although not at your staking level, I participate in these markets quite a bit before KO and its usually the draw price I have the most trouble in getting matched on (both back and lay.) If my observation is correct, part of the problem here might be simply paitience even if we assume no micro-managing is going on (not sure if that makes sense! :) ) Dont get me wrong though, on some of these markets on some number of occasions, a 5k bet in one go, would probably be responsible for the draw pinching in a tick or maybe two.

Regarding the staking plan etc, I wasnt aware that your bank for this venture was more then 150k. Fair enough, and obviously the greater the increase over 150k your bank is for this venture, the nearer your actual staking comes to the Kelly suggestion.

Regarding Kelly on horse racing, Im intrigued. Although I have experience of racing from a betting perspective by working in the shops some years ago, I dont usually get involved in them with my own betting activity. With this in mind, Im curious as to why Kelly staking doesnt work on specifically horse-racing. What is the dynamic within these markets that Im missing that would blunt/nulfiy Kelly staking principles? Something to do with minimum stake sizes or something?

http://news.sky.com/skynews/Home/Business/Bookmakers-Profits-Suffer-With-Lack-Of-Draws-In-Football-Premier-League-And-Horse-Racing-Results/Article/200910115399873?lpos=Business_Carousel_Region_4&lid=ARTICLE_15399873_Bookmakers_Profits_Suffer_With_Lack_Of_Draws_In_Football_Premier_League_And_Horse_Racing_Results