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In previous seasons, average goals scored has slumped in the winter, so you might expect more no/low scoring draws to have a seasonal component.
On top of that, if you want to play this kind of statistical lottery, shouldn't you bet every game? Even if your view of the average being skewed was correct, there is no reason to suppose that any mean reversion will come through games you cherry-pick. |
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The law of averages is a lay term used to express a belief that outcomes of a random event shall "even out" within a small sample.
As invoked in everyday life, the "law" usually reflects bad statistics or wishful thinking rather than any mathematical principle. While there is a real theorem that a random variable will reflect its underlying probability over a very large sample, the law of averages typically assumes that unnatural short-term "balance" must occur. Non-examples * Belief that an event is "due" to happen: For example, "The roulette wheel has landed on red three consecutive times. The law of averages says it's due to land on black!" Of course, the wheel has no memory and its probabilities do not change according to past results. So even if the wheel has landed on red 10 consecutive times the probability that the next roll will be black is still 48.6% (it would be exactly 50% if there were no green zero). Similarly, there is no statistical basis for the belief that a losing sports team is due to win a game or that lottery numbers which haven't appeared recently are due to appear soon. This sort of belief is called the gambler's fallacy. * Belief that a sample's average must equal its expected value. For example, if one flips a fair coin 100 times, there is only an 8% chance that there will be exactly 50 heads. * Belief that a rare occurrence will happen given enough time: For example, "If I send my résumé to enough places, the law of averages says that someone will eventually hire me." This may actually be true assuming nonzero probabilities and the law of averages is simply named in place of the Law of Large Numbers. * Belief that over time, statistics must accumulate to gradual even amount, regardless of the actual scenario. For example, the law of averages would expect that in a football league of ten teams, over a period time each team would gradually balance out to have the same amount of wins and losses, regardless of how skilled or how unskilled any one team might be. |
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viva, I'm sure you would see an argument for selling, especially as there have only been 4 draws from 66 matches. Trouble is you have to think of these things before the event, not after 66 matches.
------------------------------------------- Well, uh, yeah. But it wasn't a tip, it was a way of thinking about the basic question underlying this thread: is the lower number of draws so far this season just a meaningless blip, or does it reflect a change in the underlying fundamentals? I'm suggesting the latter. To turn that into a prediction: the number of prem draws at the end of this season will be lower than the recent average by more than it's currently below the recent first 66 game average. |
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Viva,
You genuinely think theres an underlying reason for less draws (or more goals) this season so far? Not saying you're necessarilly wrong but Im of the view that this is a combination of small data size, specific fixtures happening close together plus to a lot lower extent, due to the specific period of the season (slightly more goals at the start and end of the season compared to the middle.) Even if Im right, the OP is still asking a legitimate question here... are the fundamentals changing that has lead to less draws? I just dont think there is. Jamie Redknapp would have us all to believe its because of yet another new ball (happens every season and tournament doesnt it?) I notice you mention a perceived more polarising league this season but Im far from convinced on this so far (or at least of any significant extent anyway.) Sunderland V Wolves yielded 7 goals for example, wouldnt class that particular match as falling into the polarising category. Interested to hear your thoughts though. |
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It could be the weather which is perfect for good football, leading to more goals, therefore less draws. That, plus an unreliable small sample, could be the answer. If there is some underlying reason, why isn't happening in the lower divisions ?
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I think the big 4 are roughly where they were, the 2 below them are significantly improved, and the worst teams as a group of say 6 are possibly as bad as the league's seen. So it's at least plausible that games between these groups will produce more walkovers, while games within those groups will generate about as many draws as usual.
I wouldn't expect it to be a massive effect, mind, and I certainly don't think anything like the current draw rate will persist. I'm just saying that if offered that spread, I'd sell rather than buy it even with what's gone before discounted. |
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Viva,
Although I dont fully agree, thats fair enough, I can see your thinking there. With that said though, at what "price" (ie how many draws) would you be tempted to sell at then? |
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if someone set the spread at the average for the remaining games at the average of the last 5 seasons, I'd sell rather than buy it, but beyond that, pff. I don't think it'll make a big enough difference to base a season long system on it.
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314 games to play ? Would you be a buyer or a seller at 80 on the remaining 314 games ?
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If 80 was the last 5 year average, I'd sell rather than buy.If not I have no idea. i don't know the actual numbers.
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Viva,
In the last 5 completed seasons, 25.4% of matches (482 out of 1900) have ended in draws. Worked out over the 314 remaining Prem matches, this is 79.7 draws. Add the 4 draws that have already occured and the quote in this fashion would be 83.7. Fancy having a "paper spread bet" with me by selling at 83.7? :) |
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yeah, go on. I'll sell at 1 piece of A4 per point.
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viva el presidente! 29 Sep 21:36
yeah, go on. I'll sell at 1 piece of A4 per point. Bet macthed! :) |
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*bet void if you've made any of the numbers up!
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JPG's one of the good 'uns.
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The Investor
Very good post - I would model it, but football is not my thing, and I will just do this series of bets... and as you say succeed or fail. Dont have enough time outside of my horse work to focus on football - though I am thinking about an IR bot on soccer - let see if I get to develop it |
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Drifter
I will not cherry pick games - I will do every game all 300 or so of them.... unless PnL taret is reached prior to season end |
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The Magician (6),
When you place these bets, are you simply taking the current price available at the time you look at the market or are you positioning them in some particular way? |
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Ill pretty much be taking them close to the off in each game.... ie the day of the game at least not sooner.
I will sit on the offer, and if not taken hit the bids. but I will not be that price sensitive or micro managed getting on. |
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maybe - people will try and fornt run me.... but 5K on a premiership i assume is nothign significant
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Yeah, on Prem markets you should be alright especially if its in the last 30 mins or so before KO. As with most markets, it will cause some to jump ahead of you but not to the extent that it will affect your chances of being matched at the price you requested.
Biggest problem youll have getting matched on the draw is this fashion is that you'll need the fav to be fairly heavily bet into (during the time your bet is actually available to be taken) or for both teams to be splitting opinion quite markedly as laying the draw "action" is a lot lower then the other 5 possible choices. The good news is, these two "conditions" occur quite regularly! |
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I think you'll have a problem on all non live games getting that money on myself
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The argument that we have a more polarised league may be correct but is not a reason to not back the draw. The win odds on the better clubs will simply be shorter and hence the draw odds longer, presumably to about fair value.
The two factors for me that could start to make the value of the draw less than fair are: - higher goal expectation (as mentioned by many) - different psychology when scores are level (this would have a much bigger impact) I think there is slight evidence that the approach of teams late on when the scores are level is changing over time. The current stats are almost certainly due to variance but there may be an underlying trend. |
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Why only in the Premier League ?
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I still think a real trend could be found here due to the 3 pts for a win effect taking a lo-oong time to settle into the managerial wood.
The big Premiership clubs have the smartest managers. |
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'i assume football has not changed that much'
not sure about lower leagues but if in the PL there seem to have been a fair few higher scoring matches, i dont think man city have had a home draw in over a year now for example also check frequency of draws in la liga for comparison also not sure about your staking plan |
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I just wish the layers would increase the prices of draws but they won't, beause they know !
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Okay, so sub it down:
So far this season, have there been more penalties inside the box? A penalty is not only a goal gained but a morale killer for the team that got scored on. Have corners increased? Have shots increased? Player depth: Is more than one player scoring on a team? Keepers: Too many donuts this winter? Approach to the game: Alot of new managers this year. Alot of managers who tasted the fear of relegation last year that realize that playing for the draw isn't worth it. Is Drogba falling down less? If people think that you can sweep a brush over the league and "click and win", alot of wasted effort. |
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Betfair has been no help for draw backers in general.
Too many people now prefer to lay the team they don't fancy rather than back the team they think will win. Those layers are now in effect backing the draw as well as the other team to win. (I.e. if you lay the home, you are in reality backing the draw and the away.) This means that draw prices are always artificially held down on here. |
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thus why it is an exchange. Price is based on ask and demand. I find it works more in my favour than against. Value is there on the markets if you look a little harder. Learning more and more the past year.
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Lack of Soccer draws this season - time to bet?
Yes, time to bet, just lay the draw, easy |
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the latest theory about the lack of draws is the new Nike football T90 ascenti. bigger sweetspot, flies faster etc...
http://www.crunchgear.com/2009/07/10/nikes-t90-ascente-football-so-damn-advanced-they-might-as-well-throw-google-chrome-os-on-it/ |
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like I said in my post of the 29th September more goals could be the result of new balls. Listening to that video it might also explain why the top teams Big4 + RM & Barca are seemingly winning with more ease this year.
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Does anyone know whether they have these new balls in the CL not just the EPL, SerieA and the Primera liga?
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I don't know but I do know that if Portsmouth don't grow some, new balls will be the least of their problems ;)
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Will be interesting to see how today goes with 7 games.
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i thought there where only 5 games today
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I saw Arsenal and Chelsea`s games were tomorrow ,thought the other seven were today.Four tomorrow then ?
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Saturday 03rd October 2009
Barclays Premier League Bet Bolton v Tottenham 15.00 Burnley v Birmingham 15.00 Hull City v Wigan Athletic 15.00 Man Utd v Sunderland 17.30 Wolves v Portsmouth 15.00 Sunday 04th October 2009 Barclays Premier League Bet Arsenal v Blackburn 13.30 Chelsea v Liverpool 16.00 Everton v Stoke City 15.00 West Ham v Fulham 15.00 Monday 05th October 2009 Barclays Premier League Bet Aston Villa v Man City 20.00 |
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Did you get matched on the five Magician ?
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