8 winners from 21 races.....

Race	Horse	Rated	Res	BSP	Returns
2.50 Folkestone	Red Hearts (IRE)	2nd	1	10.70	9.22
4.20 Folkestone	Red Current	2nd	1	8.75	7.36
5.30 Bath	Welcome Approach	3rd	1	8.43	7.06
6.05 Carlisle	Ingenti	Top	1	5.43	4.21
6.20 Kempton	Sky Diamond (IRE)	2nd	1	8.76	7.37
7.20 Kempton	Eclipseoftheheart	Top	1	2.12	1.06
7.50 Kempton	Shannon Spree	Top	1	7.19	5.88
8.50 Kempton	Newby Lodge (IRE)	Top	1	5.40	4.18

for a 13.34pt profit (after 5% comm.) to 1pt level stakes @ BSP.

Well done with Smarty Socks yesterday Fastbearform.

I've been keeping an eye on the 'fit to run or fit to drop' horses since my post on 31/08/11 and as you can see from the table below it has thrown up a fair few winners.  However, I'm not sure at the moment whether this is down to the 'minimum of 3 runs in the last 63 days' filter or the 'must be in the top three rated' filter.  I suspect it's the latter.  For the record, I've only been looking at Flat & AW races.

The 'Runners' column shows the number of runners that day that had run a minimum of 3 times in the last 63 days.

The column headed 'IT3' shows how many of those runners were in the top three of my ratings.

The 'Won' column shows how many of the 'IT3' won and the final column shows their BSPs.

Date	Runners	IT3	Won	BSPs
31/08/11	107	43	8	10.70, 8.75, 8.43, 5.43, 8.76, 2.12, 7.19, 5.40.
01/09/11	72	27	8	5.36, 5.82, 4.90, 7.42, 4.80, 2.16, 5.00, 3.50.
02/09/11	109	42	7	4.31, 7.80, 6.06, 2.38, 2.46, 4.78, 5.20.
03/09/11	213	62	11	3.10, 9.80, 6.34, 7.18, 4.52, 10.33, 30.00, 5.84, 7.00, 3.96, 3.40.

The number of selections per race tends to vary.  Sometimes there may only a be one runner in a race that meets the criteria.  On other occasions there may be two or three qualifiers.  In some races there are no qualifiers.

To be continued.....

Results for Sunday - Tuesday.....

Date	Runners	IT3	Won	BSPs
04/09/11	45	10	3	2.30, 11.00, 11.50.
05/09/11	73	24	3	3.83, 5.07, 15.31.
06/09/11	36	18	3	8.51, 3.67, 4.09.

To b continued........................

Good evening.

Well, at least we had a winner last week, which was nice, and had it not been for what was in hindsight a pretty bad draw in the other race at Ascot, we may have had another winner, the horse running pretty well I thought, running wide all the way. Must have added about a furlong to his distance!

Tomorrow is another day and I think another at least reasonable payday could be on the way.

In the Portland, 2.35 at Donny, York Glory has been running well for what seems like an eternity and I think another big run is on the cards. This unusual trip should be right up his street and at a price of 8/1 is well worth the risk. I also think Confessional could run well.

Down at Goodwood in the 2.50, my old friend Peter Gubby's brother, Brian, (haven't seen him in a long while but thought I'd name drop) runs Son Of The Cat and I should think that one will run a good race there again. 13/2 in places.

In the big race at Donny, the St Leger, I have already laid the favourite and think Blue Bunting will run well. However, for some time now, I have believed that Seville has wanted further than 12 furlongs and this trip could well be an ideal stepping stone on the way to Gold Cup glory at Royal Ascot at some stage.
Last season on my figures Seville ran faster than any other 2 yo apart from Frankel, Casamento and Roderick O'Conner. This could be his time of year as well, and Lads are still going 10/1 for this. I'll be disappointed if he doesn't make the frame. This is a very good horse on his day and Aiden has put the boy on. I'm sure he wouldn't want him embarressed! I'm not forgetting also, that he gave our horse the other week a great ride, and but for the saddle slipping, may well of won on Tactician.

Just had a quick look at the Portland and taking movement in class & speed ratings in to account, Zero Money comes out best.  Nocturnal Affair next best rated.

In the Ayr Gold Cup, taking movement in class & speed ratings in to account, Majestic Myles comes out best.  Pastoral Player next best rated.

Good evening.

I'm concentrating on two races tomorrow, one at Ascot and the other at Newmarket. I was hoping for a big price for the one at Ascot, but the ridiculous reduction in the number of runners in the Challenge Cup has seen the prices of most horses probably 30% or so lower than they may have been in a 28-30 runner race. Stupid race planners really haven't got a clue! Oh! sorry, yes they have, they know how to f**k-up a decent betting handicap!

Anyway, with that rant out of the way, off to the 3.00 at Newmarket where I strongly fancy the chance of  Tell Dad in the Tattersalls Millions 2yo Trophy.
This one seemed to win a shade cosily here a couple of weeks ago in a good time from a few useful horses and can certainly go well again tomorrow. I can only see a couple of potential dangers, and hopefully good odds available later.

On to the 3.50 at Ascot and as already mentioned, the Challenge Cup has for some inexplicable reason, been reduced to 18 runners this year, which from a betting viewpoint, instead of getting around 10/1 for my selection, I'm going to have to settle for around 7/1, and that can make a big difference on a winning double. (not that I've had one of those for a while)! Anyway, the horse is Smarty Socks and I strongly believe this one can go close again, so no reason to look for anything else, except to mention that, if you fancy Smarty Socks, then you would certainly have to fear Webbow at double the odds. However, I don't believe this one runs to his best at Ascot, so best left alone I think. The Cheka would also have a good chance on best form.

So there you have it, hopefully a nice little double to watch romp home when I get in from work tomorrow night!

Good evening.

Some good racing at Ascot and Cheltenham tomorrow, but am not betting at either of those for various reasons. I expect Frankel to win, as do most people I would imagine. The only thing I would say is, if he's not at his best and Poets Voice is, then Poets Voice could win at a very big price.

Not enough info to go on at the mo over the jumps, so I've dug a couple out at Catterick.

Both have won with a bit of cut in the past, so hopefully they can run good races at reasonable prices, there's no reason why not according to my analysis.


2.20  Annie Walker  9/1

2.55 Pelmanism  7/1

14:15	Wincanton	Bathwick Man	2
14:15	Wincanton	Aines Delight (IRE)	1
14:50	Wincanton	Drybrook Bedouin	1
14:50	Wincanton	Ballyvesey (IRE)	2
15:10	Aintree	Galaxy Rock (IRE)	1
15:10	Aintree	Battle Group	2
15:45	Aintree	Riguez Dancer	2
15:45	Aintree	Mister Stickler (IRE)	1
16:00	Wincanton	Heir To Be	2
16:00	Wincanton	Tribal Dance (IRE)	1
16:35	Wincanton	Simply Strong (IRE)	2
16:35	Wincanton	Graduation Night	1

Calico Rose     4.40 Chepstow     2pts win
Makbullet     2.50 Catterick     3pts win
Golden Gael     2.40 Chepstow     3pts win
Be My Light      4.10 Chepstow     3pts win

Method D system test update

Date	Selection	Time & Meeting	Stake	Result	BSP	P(after 5% comm.)/L
24/10/11	Opus Maximus (IRE)	1.30 Leicester	3	N/R	-	-
24/10/11	Damascus Symphony	3.40 Redcar	3	Lost	5.94	-3
24/10/11	Hit The Switch	4.20 Southwell	3	Lost	5.84	-3
25/10/11	Makbullet	2.50 Catterick	3	Lost	5.24	-3
25/10/11	Golden Gael	2.40 Chepstow	3	Won	10.17	26.13
25/10/11	Be My Light (IRE)	4.10 Chepstow	3	Lost	5.88	-3
25/10/11	Calico Rose	4.40 Chepstow	2	Lost	6.55	-2

Unfortunately the online database used to identify qualifiers went tits up late Tuesday afternoon and is still not fully functional as I type.

To be continued.

Whoops.  Final column should read....

Acc. P/L
-
-3.00
-6.00
-9.00
17.13
14.13
12.13
11.13
16.21
17.76
14.76
11.76
23.10
20.10

Good evening.

Well, have been finding a few winners recently, but unfortunately, no doubles to bump up the returns.

It's the last big betting race of the flat tomorrow, and hopefully we can go out with a bang for Guy Fawkes night rather than a whimper.

No long write-ups tonight, I've done my 'homework' and suffice it to say, the two horses I've picked for tomorrow have good chances and as usual, good runs expected.

Donny

3.10  Status Symbol  14/1

3.40  Sirius Prospect  9/2  and 5/1 with Billys.

Fingers crossed.

Breeders Cup

18.02 Majestic City

Good evening.

I've had a small ew play on Planet Of Sound in the Hennessy at 14/1 for reasons I shall go into tomorrow evening. Still a good bet I think at 12/1.

Good evening.

As expected last week, a great run from Planet Of Sound, but just finding one too good in the end. Also a good winning run fron Hey Big Spender, although that one went unbacked by me in the end.

Just two for me tomorrow at Sandown.  I was tempted a bit with Via Galilei again with the soft ground which will suit, but a combination of top weight and the fact that he's yet to win on a stiff track is enough to put me off again. So the one I think should run well is Enfant De Lune at odds of 8/1 with conditions to suit.

In the Tingle Creek at 3.05, I just can't get away from the fantastic record of Gauvain in small fields and so am more than prepared to take the risk at odds of 10/1. Hopefully another big run to come.

Great Endeavour added e/w. Have had to do it to spare the pain of seeing it win unbacked.

Hello again,

I'll keep it short this evening, have narrowed things down to 3 horses now, so fingers crossed.

Kempton 1.25  Loch Ba  8/1 ish        well capable of springing a surprise back at Kempton against some more fancied horses.

Wetherby  1.45  Always Right  4/1 ish        Always runs a good race and should go close again.

Kempton  3.10  Master Minded  7/1 ish        Fantastic record going right handed, fast enough on his day, trip the only small question mark, but will go very close if he gets it.

Good evening.

Have found some really good ones for tomorrow, or so I believe! In fact, it's taken me a little while to decide what to leave out, and in the end I've got three, although I would have prefered just the two.

My third choice of the three runners is in the 2.20 at Warwick. I have to give it a mention, because although the trainer doesn't seem extremely confident, he still hopes the horse will run well, the main reason being that Trigger The Light has won 3/4 at Warwick and the other time came 2nd at the course. The old saying 'horses for courses' certainly seems to ring true with this one and despite advancing years, should give another good account.

However, my two main bets are both at Newbury, and in the Mandarin Chase at 2.35, I expect Rey Nacarado to win this and I will be very disappointed if he's not at least fighting out the finish. Already a C and D winner and progressing nicely, the form of this one was done no harm with Giles Cross running so very well in the Welsh National a few days back and I really think it's the one to be on.

In the 3.40 after Fingal Bay wins the Challow Hurdle, I once again expect a big run from my final selection, Ubi Ace. This one of course won the 'William Hill' handicap hurdle at Sandown earlier in the month and although the second and third have since failed miserably, I still think the form will hold up in time when those ones run under more favourable circumstances.

I'll really be miffed if I don't land something back tomorrow, these are good selections!

Am working tomorrow, so it's the recorder again for me, something to look forward to when I get in.

Good evening.

Sandown 2.05 Rileyev 9/2

Wincanton  3.25  Gallox Bridge  6/1

As usual, both good chances and should give a good account.