|
By:
I'll also add some other information, in Australia, bookmakers all offer top fluctuation betting, which is the best price bet about a horse in the betting ring. Paddy Power don't offer top fluctuation but do offer if you take an early price and the SP is greater, they'll pay you the better dividend. If you got top odds backing every firmer, you'd make money, if you got top odds on backing every solid drifter, you'd make money.
Which tells us bookies make their money on the other horses which stay around the same price maybe move a point or two and all the poor odds on outsiders. In 117% book, most of the 17% is made on horses that neither drift nor steam. So if they lose on big drifters (fact) and lose on big steamers (fact), and most of the action is on steamers, even though the book is in their favour, how do they make their money? They make their money because the average price laid of a steamer is lower than top fluctuation, because punters en mass aren't satisfied with top fluctuation, when the odds go down more money goes on. So although they lose out on x% early, they have laid the horse average price a lot lower. That is the essence of this method. And that is why you never put in a lay above or at the bookies current price when following steamers, you need to ask for lower. So your average price goes down. Betfair SP is the same, it is exactly breakeven, because they have no overround, well actually they do (but that's another story for another day). You can make money backing just steamers and backing just drifters, but the one's in between is a loss. If you don't believe me, then think of it this way, if you layed a steamer at the lowest possible price on Betfair you make money, therefore backing all the other drifters at the best possible price must result in profit. It's the in betweens and small movements which destroy you. |
|
By:
BTO, you are a man among men, imho...
|
|
By:
BTO, would you care to comment on greyhound markets and Place markets?
|
|
By:
To be honest, I have not looked at greyhound markets at all.
Thanks for the nice comment, I am not extremely intelligent, there are many more sharper minds than me around. I'm of average intelligence, but am fascinated by the whole punting and bookmaking game. Being the analytical type, I just love boring data, not for the numbers, but for the secrets they reveal. The bookmaking fraternity is a closed club, most of it is a big secret. Being that I love to solve a problem with data, I've spent a good deal of time (too much in fact) in getting answers to reveal just some of the angles. I can't do tissue prices, I can't do form all that well, and can't trade consistently enough for the edge, so I stick to the mechanics and maths of the game. |
|
By:
you talk alot of sense , beat
|
|
By:
How have we done today chaps ?
|
|
By:
not taking the strat up til the new year mate
how you get on ? |
|
By:
No complaints yet.
I'm a little surprised BTO has changed his strategy.The idea of this method was to let him get some shut-eye,but now he says he's changed to doing it via the live track shows. I get the impression we are road testing his ideas for him. |
|
By:
BTO -Why change now , how do ya know this works long term ?
|
|
By:
If you don't take every race on its own merit, then you will lose!
|
|
By:
I have been doing this for over two years, so you certainly aren't road testing it for me.
But I think I can improve the profit, by avoiding the morning line solid firmers. |
|
By:
sg123 - what is the average price of favourites BEFORE the off on BF.............do you "know" ?
From your initial post you don't! If you blindly lay EVERY fav before the off at BF odds...................................when stats are XXXXXX for fav winners ......and not knowing what average odds are re such lays..........then you WILL lose! What BTO is posting is irrelevant to your opening post................................. You gotta know when to back em and you gotta know when to lay em.................in each race.........................................and BLINDLY doing so will FAIL in long term........ |
|
By:
I may have been unclear.
The original method works and works well, providing you have patience and discipline. Originally, I am using live shows from Australian tracks but early odds for UK races and getting some sleep. The Australian return is a lot better because I am starting when the ring opens betting, so morning firmers are opened shorter. Therefore, I'm trying to increase the profit on UK racing by using live shows while I'm awake. But I still have my morning line UK lays set while I sleep. I was just giving people a heads up that the profit is a bit better using live shows, I wasn't changing the basic principle, the original method works without a doubt. |
|
By:
To those testing this system (personally I wouldn't) then what is the average odds your are laying at versus 1) Betfair SP 2) Industry SP.
This should be a key metric you track to understand viability. When calculating your odds you also need to factor in your commission, so let's say you laid one at average odd of 2, that equates to 2.1 for someone on 5% comm (assuming one runner laid). Just be careful and play with small stakes until you've got a good reprsentative sample. |
|
By:
I was doing this strategy yesterday on UK Greyhound markets. I think I will give it another go for a month or so and see how it goes. I like it for non-liquid markets where trading is not good.
Date Bank Stake Lays Markets Total Stake P+L 22,12 $300,00 $3,00 15 10 $14,91 $0,09 |
|
By:
I acknowledge it's not for everyone, there's a lot of work involved, but it is profitable longterm and that's what matters given the context of the thread.
While Industry SP and Betfair SP are guidelines, they are not an accurate measure when it comes to this. It's the average price of the greatest exposure which is the measure and whether it's above or below Top Fluctuation in the ring after paying commission, because we are not just laying one horse, we are making part books on more than one horse which drives the exposure down at higher odds, so our greatest exposure is at lower odds. However, to demonstrate a point here are some facts and figures. Considering we make our money from the lower priced horses, I've plucked out 506 horses that opened early at 6/4 or under with the bookies. Laying them all at Betfair SP returns 104.67% AFTER paying commission or 23.63 points clear profit. Laying only the steamers (Betfair SP was shorter than the bookies opening price) returns 105.67% AFTER paying commission. Laying only the horses that Betfair SP was more than the bookies opening price returns 103.94% AFTER paying commission. There's plenty to work with if you get better than Betfair SP on your horse with the greatest exposure. |
|
By:
There are also numerous cases where there is a big go on a horse but in the dying minutes the price comes back up a few points, as the layers load up.
It does happen on occasion that the last price you got is above Betfair SP, but it's swings and roundabouts. And there are probaby two or three other horses, you did better on. |
|
By:
It's the consolidated odds that matter. If you get plenty of fluctuations and prices bounce back to higher prices then you should be fine over the longer term, but if you continually lay steemers who smash through your price and go several ticks lower then you are left with bad value odds.
I accept that laying multiple runners in the same race is beneficial, but haven't most observers found they are just laying one runner? We only have your word to take for it that it works, and it seems you are still fiddling around with it. My advice is sound - test the system with very small stakes, over a very long period. I would be very interested to get feedback from all testers at say end of Jan. |
|
By:
To answer the question fully, my return is a little over 110% longterm using this method after paying commission.
It's actually 111.65% judging by my figures over two years. It was under 110%, but is creeping up slowly since I've been using live shows for the prices. |
|
By:
Well done, and good luck to you. We'll have to take your word for it. Hopefully some of the guys on this thread will benefit from this idea. Personally I have my doubts, but I am a cynic. Let's get a school report from the testers at the end of Jan.
|
|
By:
Please clafiy how you have calculated your return so we all in the clear of what you are actually measuring.
|
|
By:
Total amount returned minus commission paid divided by Total amount invested.
|
|
By:
Thanks. Do you know your return by exposure rather than amount invested?
|
|
By:
I've never bothered to work it out.
I just import my Betfair statement in excel, adjust the commission into a seperate column and import it into a database. I don't have a calculation for exposure. |
|
By:
G'day BTO.
When you first posted on this thread about your method,I began trying it straight away,as it was close to what I was doing,and your reasoning sounded logical to me. My first few bets were made using the live track show,as I didn't realise you took your odds from the mornings bookies prices. When I indicated that this was how I was operating,you posted your comments. 13 Dec 17:41 |
|
By:
Hi,
I posted this: This really isn't something you can do so close to the off. All my lays go in very early to take advantage of any movements plus late movements. Because you'll find a lot of horses, aside from strong firmers or strong drifters, will actually ping pong in price, so you're missing out on these horses as well. So I can see how you might think it's a contradiction. I wanted to tell you how the original proven way works and not confuse things by introducing an angle that wasn't proven. The late prices was only something that I had proven on Australian races, but had not proven it on UK markets, because there are differences between the two markets. After getting enough data to trial, I'm satisfied that it will work using late prices. |
|
By:
mornin beat -
just 1 question please mate . what would be your balance if you started this method 2 years ago with one thousand pounds . thanks. |
|
By:
7,200 pounds based on 1% level staking doing Australian and UK racing.
|
|
By:
cheers --
|
|
By:
Thanks for your response BTO.
|
|
By:
ttt- how you doing today , any joy mate ?
|
|
By:
I've only just got in,I'll play the last 3 races though.
|
|
By:
How did you do today BTO on this ?
Could you list the ones you were matched at and the odds each time one was matched ? I'd be interested to see if we have any differences. |
|
By:
,
|
|
By:
/
|
|
By:
load of balls
lost a small fortune since 22nd |
|
By:
So have the bookies.
So have I. However, you need to have discipline and patience as I first indicated on the thread. Aus markets have been bad for me as well with a string of bad days. But as any bookie would know, if you pack up now, you'll never recoup losses when the results go your way. |
|
By:
Flow Chart opens 9/2,layed at 7/2,wins at 11/4.
|
|
By:
hows it been for you , last few days tame ?
any joy |
|
By:
Hi Brian
Before the Xmas break I was only break even.I only played a handful of races each day though due to not getting home from work until 2pm.Seems as though that has saved me a few quid. Played every race yesterday,hit 5 winners,so well down on the day,and after that first result today,I'm now down overall. I've had many bad runs like this before,it usually turns itself around,but wether or not it can turn to profit or just claw some of the losses back remains to be seen. Good Luck ! |